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It wasn’t just Rick Pitino’s formerly unblemished Cardinal Birds team that went down today to the scrappy Drexel Dragons of Philly, it was a plethora of formerly high flyers. One great example is the LED players CREE and VECO, which got swung from their armpits into a molten lake of lava today.

Like my Cards, these high fliers were tired, and yes, a little bit cocky with their recent gains. Only the grace of God saved me from getting left standing by the record players on these two. I was trimming recent runners, and had only a bit left of these two, so I decided to take profits on the rest over the last week, the last of which I sold yesterday, as reported in The PPT.

I think what happened to CREE….

And to it’s close sister VECO….

… all goes to show that the momo is starting to come out of the markets.   I again implore you to continue trimming back risk assets such as these “tip of the iceberg” plays.

Best to you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNc5o9TU0t0&feature=related 450 300]

Jimmy Page, eat your heart out!
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You may be familiar with my call that gold and silver are overbought and should be pulling back here. Well, I still stand by that call, and as proof, today I sold approximately 25 to 40% of my EXK, BAA, AGQ, CDE, respectively .

Note I touched not any of my ANV or SLW, or IAG or RGLD, EGO or PAAS or any of my “core group.”    The reason is the Stairway to Heaven I’ve seen appearing in the charts, particularly the silver commodity’s chart.  First the weekly:

Yes, that’s our eighth week of “steady Eddy” up move we’re witnessing there.   And yet, look at how boringly stair step it seems… almost as if it is some kind of controlled move.  

It looks almost as boring — and maybe alarming — on the daily charts.   Behold:

Not a whole heckuva a lot of pullback in that stairway, eh?  That’s what’s kind of freaking me out from two angles.  First, this is not a “parabolic move” but rather a slow stair-step.  It’s highly unusual for such a volatile metal.  And before you start getting crazy about silver’s tiny market (true), the recent gold commodity charts look exactly like this as well.

It’s almost like someone gave a signal in August that it was time to swap shit dollars — ever so quietly and surreptitiously, like a cafeteria thief replacing roast turkey slices with wedges of liverwurst on all the whole grain wheat sandwich bread — for beautiful ingots of silver and gold.

This action gives me pause, even though I took some mighty profits today in the more volatile PM’s  (I also sold half my shitty BBT position, and trimmed or got rid of some outliers like JAH, KFN and a little VECO). 

This could be traders slowly covering short positions, I guess, in which case, we should ready for a strong pullback, as I’ve noted.   However, this could also be the precursor, the yeast in the bread dough, so to speak, of the parabolic move that I do expect later on this year or in the Spring. 

So we will wait and see, with bated breath, whether Christmas comes early this year… or right… on…. time!

Best to you all.

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No, not that.

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I hope you all had a fine Labour Day Weekend.   I spent mine fending off a myriad of stressful “deep nature” day trips (with all the kids) whilst trying to cajole–via overheating Crackberry Storm II — both clients and adversaries into a proper canvas and balsa-wood box which I plan to nail shut tomorrow morning and mail to Zambia, postage due.

True, I do this stuff because I love it, but I also do it for Barak and his indigent health care plan.   I want to make sure that shit is well stocked as it launches off the pier.

Given that The PPT is indicating at least a near term pullback, perhaps as early as tomorrow morning, I figure I’d take a look at some loooooonger term plays out there that may be worth taking a pinch of snuff and blowing some loose cash on.

Said loose cash should be in abundance as you all are reaping big gains from the TNA sales you’ve been harvesting as The PPT has directed you, yes?   

Or you’ve at least salted away a couple of dollars by following my direction in ANV or SLW in the last six weeks, am I correuct (sic), sieur?

No?

No matter, as I’ve always got more to give, though it’s questionable whether you deserve it or not…  I think at least two of the following three will work going forward to Christmas, or at least the time of the Turkey gods.  Let’s see if  you can figure out which I think are the best.   First, our recent wilting lady, CREE in a monthly chart:

Then there’s her somewhat zany half brother in the LED poison industry, VECO:

Then, just for giggles… there’s that one I told you to hold until you were a grandmother, or similar benevolant adult figure.  It really doesn’t need much comment:

Don’t lament that you were not here at the beginning of the bull in precious metals.  Rather, take advantage of a trend that still lives.   Andgo ahead,  fool around with a couple or three tech names as well, but be cautious, as those should be shorter term plays (within this year) than the PM’s.

Best to you all, and Happy Labours.   Try to keep hold off some of it, eh?

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“Buy Stocks, My Plebs!”
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I ran into CH (that’s what I call her, “CH” — we’re buds) at the perfume counter at Bergdorf’s and she said “fugheddaboud the gold and the silver stocks for now, Jake, go out and get you some high beta stocks. Now, ged OUD dah heah!”

That vocal coach has done wonders with her Joisey accent, no?

CREE, VECO, SQM, POWR, TIE and, most of all, ENTR are all on my radar screen for tomorrow.

Slainte.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQtq4Z4t1yQ 450 300]

Coupled With an Egregious Loss of Dignity

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SLW was up 25% this past August.  You’re welcome, any time. 

I expect we’ll see a bit of consolidation in the PM names into early September, perhaps even coincident with a pullback in TLT, our nemesis.

Then again with the action in ANV today, that might just not happen at all.  I hope, however, that it will, as I would like to add a bit more ANV before that behemoth continues to roll on.  Remember what I said about how powerful that stock was off a touch of the 200-day EMA?  That was back below $16 a share, less than six weeks ago, and today she hit $24.50 before backing off to a dollar lower than that. 

Now futures are raring up in a wholly unexpected September first blastoff.  I mean who could have thought all that low volume selling on Monday could have been big money positioning? 

Right? 

PM’s may rest here, but I’m thinking ANDE and SQM — two recent mentions, along with old Jacksonian friends TC and TCK, will offer plenty of fun-haus trading for those so inclined tomorrow.   Dollars to doughnuts, our friend earl starts launching again tomorrow.   I may partake in some eeeevil ERX as a result.

For the adventurous, it looks like CREE and VECO are ready to “POWR” up one more time.  Or you can go equally nuts with Triple Sec Russell play, TNA.

My best to you and your Boomer parents.   Well, kind of.

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Some of you get a tad nervous and that’s understandable. You haven’t been sailin’ the seas lo these last ten years with a chest of silver and a chest of gold amid-decks, watching the waves break over your port bow and the rigging whip up under many a Jamaica squall.

‘Tis a pity, as it’s rendered many of ye as feckless and gray-faced as a feral stoat during the slaughtering season when it comes to any down-draft in ye positions. 

If there’s one thing I could keep in your mind it’s that the PM”s are a volatile lot.   Like a powderkeg in a burning fireworks factory, ye shall be shaken about before ye’re borne to heaven.

But your time is not yet, and neither is it the hour for hand wringing.   There may very well be one last shake of the lamb’s tail before we ascend over again into the high surf and the sun scuppered seas.   I say “may” because with silver’s recent strength leading the prow, it’s just as likely we take off like a shot tomorrow, mimicking the dolphins of tech like CREE and VECO, the latter of which blew out it’s numbers tonight and should offer boundless booty to ye faithful who stuck with her.   As well, POWR should benefit from that triumph.

As usual, I think it’s the weekly charts that give the best perspective, and the weekly of $GOLD should be no exception.  Look here on the direction I think we should take in the coming month.  That short dip may very well be our last gasp at these levels, and if so, I’ve amasse some dry powder to partake in more ANV and SLW in the coming week.

My best to you all, as ye make yer way through the shoals of Uncertainty.

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