Overall thumbs up to the RNC. Some lame moments, but this is the Republicans, after all. They are the opposite of slick. Unlike many, I enjoyed Clint’s off the cuff rambling. He’s like your crotchety grandfather — the one you got your sense of humor from, the one who could always make you smile. Rubio had the second best speech of the convention, after only Ryan, and his tying his own immigrant roots-story into the Euro-style socialist policies of the Obama Administration was as spot-on as it was rhetorically brilliant. To whit:
“These (Obama policies) are the ideas that people come to America to get away from.”
Mitt was better than I expected, if only third place (Christie was terrible, IMHO, btw). He humanized himself, I thought, and connected with the women’s vote, which will be crucial. His economic versatility can be taken for granted, and it will be what helps save this Republic, but he’s not going to get that chance without “the womenses.” Unlike Obama, he’s not just another pretty face.
I’m reasonably upbeat about the prospects of the GOP ticket going into November, but much work remains to be done. Despite Obama’s Jimmy Carteresque record, he’s got major dollar-equivalent support from the likes of the major networks and wire services. The good news is the American populace is discounting these propaganda organs substantially in the 21st Century. The Obama-Reid-Pelosi abysmal record is there for those who want to review it, and it’s our job as intelligent arbiters of our own republic to make sure the truth is not buried under slander, spin and misdirection. God bless us all.
I think yesterday’s downspike may have presented an opportunity, market-wise. I may start to step back into some of my sold off SLW and SIL positions. I also like SLV for the duration here. Those of you who have not done so may even think about physical silver. I think we’re done pulling back and getting ready for the (longer term) move back to the 2011 highs. We’re back above the 200 day EMA (and pulled back to it yesterday at $29.40). We may pay pull back to fill in some gaps in the recent rise, but I don’t see SLV getting back below $28.50 any time soon.
For those fleet of foot and young enough to throw some bones on a play, I think BAA presented a nice opportunity yesterday on that big pullback. If you look at this five minute chart, you’ll see a bunch of buying in the last hour of trading, all at that magic $4-dollarish mark.
I think this thing is headed back to $5.00 at some point before year end, and that’s 20% from here. Keep in mind this is a risky one, and against my usual gold miner picking strategy as it’s got tonnes of political risk, being in the “Democratic”(hah!) Republic of Congo. Keep your finger on the “caution” button for this sucker.
Another beaten down stock I was asked about (by Ragin’ Cajun, it turns out, sorry I took so long RC!) is rare earth miner MCP — Molycorp. I don’t own any of this but looking at the chart, it seems like this would be as safe buy with your stops set below the close on the 28th ($10.75). I think yesterday’s action was typical back and fill volatility, and MCP is ready to join the re-inflation party Chairman Bernanke is about to touch off in pursuit of “four more years” for he and Barry.
As for today, it seems the U.S. dollar is doing it’s usual plungerooni below $79 again. When it breaks $79.60 with vigour (sic), please call me. Until then I will be eyes forward on all of my “X” play metal picks. Of particular interest are the siblings XRA and it’s offshoot XG (or is it the other way ’round? No matter). XRA is currenlty up 5.5% at $2.89, and XG is up over 3.6% at $6.26.
My other X-play is on the silver side — EXK, my old favorite, up 3.8% at $9.86 this day. For lotto type picks, I continue to recommend the accumulation of BAA and AAU, both also up today to varying degrees.
Last but not least, let’s not forget the rare earths. I know they are frustrating, but you will kick yourself if they take off without you. Besides MCP and REE (the more grandfatherly of the bunch), I continue to nibble on AVL and QRM. As always, remain cautious. Any rebound in the dollar will negate all this good stuff, and signal us to lighten our loads.
While I wait on the precious metal markets to resolve themselves, I’m subsisting on a diet of heavy metals and pure refined sugar. If I taper off in my blogging in the coming days it’s likely because I’ve transformed into a Brundel Fly.
As mentioned, AVL , REE, MCP have been moving nicely (although tapering off a bit at the end of the day), while the PM miners tread water trying to catch a bid from the falling Uncle Buck. I did note that BAA finished back above $5.00 again.
Nope, the only thing that really stood out today in the areas I’m looking at was a refiner… and no, not the petroleum and kerosene variety, but the lonely sweet variety, sugar shack shifter Imperial Sugar — IPSU.
There have been all kinds of articles about sugar being the commodity of 2012, and I take them all with a grain of salt (no pun intended). I do, however, like a decent looking chart when I see one, and this one promises at least some continuation on today’s high volume, high percentage move. Just like the last time we got a high volume candle, I think we’ll get at least two more days out of this, which could very well bring us to our next resistance, at the underside of the 200-day EMA, or appoximately $7.60.
For those checking the math, that’ approximately 34% over today’s close. Do you feel lucky?
I’ve been lying low, deep within the underground catacombs of my hardened cee-ment (sic) bunker, waiting for the air to change before speaking with you again. Last week the dollar was on the edge of a knife, and it looked like it was poised to strike a blow against my precious metal position that even I, in my well-defended fortress– Haz-mat suited and full-fetal positioned– would find difficult to withstand.
Is it possible we are just enduring one last head fake before the dollar re-asserts itself and makes mince-meat pies out of all my lovely precious metal and rare-earth positions? It’s certainly possible.
But for now, I will revel in the respite, as Stealth-Bernank and the Chinese work out their differences and my “tell-tale” stocks — UPS, FCX and the rare-earths (REE, MCP, AVL, QRM) move nicely here.
If you prefer gambling to regular, gentlemen’s club smoking room type investing (UPS, COP, CMI, MON, etc), then there are two current seat-of-their-pants plays I’m watching right now – sugar high confectionary profits in IPSU and a little-bit-nutty, a little-bit-slutty rare earth play AVL.
I also like SSRI, here, mostly for the pricetag on its silver.
God bless, and I hope to be with you more often this week.
Calling in from the road again with my apologies. I just looked at the market for the first time today (aside from the occassional blackberry glance) and I note that my rare-earth picks seem to be coming alive like a solar juice stock on cocaine steroids.
The big winner of the day was Quest Rare Minerals — QRM– and my old chart still holds true here. The stock increased over 25% today on huge volume (over 5x average daily volume) on news of some rich drilling successes. Note how this big move ran almost exactly to the consolidation zone that I had laid out some months back.
I expect we’ll see this stock consolidate like AVL did the other day. AVL was up large today as well (although only 7%+) and is also knocking back at the consolidation level we noted the other day. These are good times to accumulate on pull backs, folks. This volume means something here. Others to keep an eye on are MCP, REE and GDLNF.
I note other bloggers on this site have been picking up on some of my stocks in the PM sector, and I appreciate that helping hand.
I will try to check in tomorrow… again from the road, if I can find a wi-fi connection somewhere in this jumble of tubes and molten metal.
Interviewed above is a man who is arguably one of the best rock and roll musicians of all time, with an indelible legacy that will never be questioned by the more serious students of the genre. And yet Levon Helmis also indubitably a Southern Gentlemen in the truest sense. Born to poor cotton farmers in an Arkansas town just west of the Mississippi, he was brought up with impeccable manners, respect for others, and a healthy fear of God. The phrase “salt of the Earth” is cliched, but applies here if anywhere.
Note the patience, humility and even respect he allows the over-earnest newsdork interviewer? A teevee journalist who, much like myself and most of my urban Northeastern brethren, reveals a contrasting self-important air of arrogance that far belies his functionary status? It’s awe-inspiring.
Hell, I’ll say it– Levon is inspiring. And his example and those of many of his generation is one of the major reasons I wanted my kids to grow up down here. I wanted them to meet people with the quiet American dignity you see in this clip. People like my children’s grandparents, and their grandparents’ kin from the Appalachian regions. Because make no mistake, even in the South, folks like Mr. Helm are slowly becoming a rarity.
Every day, therefore, I will strive to be more like him– not in talent, of course, but in pursuit of that humilitous honorability – as I believe that a most worthy goal.
On the trading front, I covered a large number of my silver sold calls today, specifically SLW, PAAS, MVG and EXK, all at 35-55% profits. I did this mostly because I think we will have a short term rebound here. Maybe 2-5 days. I find it hard to believe we are done, however.
I think the noobs who piled into the PM markets in December still need to be shaken like rats running from the terrier. What fun is a bull, after all, if it’s weighted down by noobs?
I kept almost all of my gold hedges, not because I don’t think gold will bounce as well, but because the silvers are more volatile, and I have alloted the gold calls (sold) a bit more rope. I will likely step out of them tomorrow morning.
The dollar is ramping, and it may return to our old mid $81 resistance levels once again. I am preparing, and prepared. You should be as well.
Lastly, if you are looking at the rare earth’s we’ve dabbled in recently, you should think of paring some here. I expect a larger market correction to be upcoming, and that means the hottest stocks will be the hardest slapped. Take note on AVL, as well as REE and MCP if you have any (I’ve neither).