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Where’s the Safe Bet?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LcKcXpCDE&feature=related 450 300]

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Not to be overBEARing, but it looks like the US Banquing sector is going to have a rough time of it in the next couple of days.  Why not take advantage of that turmoil by setting aside some silver and gold for your posterity?

Besides, who wouldn’t want to kick “JP Morgue” in the teeth by buying silver, or so the old wives tell it?
I’m not going to tell you to do anything I wouldn’t do, so I’m not imploring you to go out and swamp your local numismatic dealer with pleas for hard bullion and coin.  I think this should be a part of your overall portfolio, but I think there are adequate substitutes still available under our current very liquid market system.   Unlike our fellows above, I don’t believe SLV and GLD are “false flag” operations designed to trick one out of one’s natural incentive to purchase physical.

I could be incredibly naive, but I trust the current rule of law enough to believe the audits of these depositories are valid.  Why?  Because the idea is too much of a moneymaker to allow it to be waylaid by a lack of credibility.  Both SLV’s iShares and State Street (GLD‘s parent) have too much invested in barriers to entry here to screw up a good thing with a fraudulent audit.   I like to use Occum’s Razor when analyzing these situations, and in this case, the easiest path to big money is to establish a creditable physical substitute.  Why screw w. that?

As you know, I also believe that another liquid path to trading gains is in the highly leveraged miners.  I don’t have to remind you that the most highly leveraged vehicles in that sector are the royalty financiers to those miners — namely RGLD and SLW of gold and silver concentration respectively.

After that there are many names, but if you want to act quickly, you are best throwing dough at GDX, GDXJ and SIL, which are the large cap gold, small cap gold and silver miner ETF’s, respectively.   I point you to these names because liquidity will be king here, and there will be volatility on top of volatility in the coming weeks.

Be ready to snatch opportunity with these vehicles and yes, by shorting the banks as opportunistically as possible through SKF, and even FAZ if you dare.  Remember to keep an extremely tight leash on both, however, for they will turn and snatch out your gizzard in the blink of an unsuspecting eye.

Best to you all.

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Funnel Hats for Funnel Heads

 
Tin Man
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Despite my adopted team, the Green Collar Jets, winning an improbable playoff victory over the hard-to-like Tom Brady Patriots this weekend, I am in full choler right now, due to the exigencies of hardware failure. I’m downstairs posting from the kids’ computer tonight because my trusty Sony Vaio has gone “Vaio (sic) con Dios!” on me, and seems to have left the station for that great electronic synapse farm in the Sky. I guess that last trip out to California was just too much for it.

Suggestions are welcome, as long as you do not recommend I purchase a Craapl.  I have no interest in seeking out a new career in fashion and design, thanks very much.

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I expect many of you — my more loyal readers — are already in the bunker due to my ample warnings over these last two weeks.   Many of you, however, resemble the man at the top of the page, and love The Funnel so much that you’ve fashioned special Funnel Hats to celebrate itscoming, and your imminent dive down it’s narrowing throat structure.

Well, the original man with no heart —Steve Jobs — just declared he was going on another Health Holiday, most likely so he can rendevous with the Mother Ship and pick up the next space alien technological doo-dad for Craapl, and therefore kick Bill Gates’ & Steve Ballmar’s asses with greater alacrity.  That also means the market is now free to sell off with great vim and vinegar.

Got your QID yet?  I’ve only put half of mine on, as planned.  I think tomorrow might be the day for the rest, however.

Meanwhile, back at the old gold mill, I have sold down to a comfortable level, and I continue to believe we will see a pull back in the 10-15% range off the recent highs.  That could easily bring us to $1,300 or less on the POG, and we all know silver likes to make gold’s price moves look kittenish in comparison.   As a result, I have even purchased some ZSL to warm the bed I’ve made for myself.   You should consider trimming your EXK and SLW and PAAS, for sure, and please get out completely from the AGQ, before you hurt yourselves.

What’s that rumbling you hear from my garage?  Why yes, it does happen to be my 12-cylinder dual cammy (I have no idea what the means) slung back black coupe FAZ-mobile idling in the drive.   I haven’t taken it out for a spin yet, but I will be eyeing the BKX with great interest, JPM “grande” earnings aside.    Heck I may even break out a bowl of Skiffles for my morning repast tomorrow. 

It’s been a while hasn’t it?   And yet, somehow… it just feels right.   

Remember the plan, now Funnelites.  The plan is to have cash to invest in this PM bull for the long run into dollar implosion.   That emphatically does not mean you play “long-only” for the duration.   You should have a core in store, but right now is not the time to be a hero.   Take a break, take a vacation, or better yet, move to North Carolina.   No need to make life any more stressful than it already is.

Best to you all.

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To the FAZ-Mobile!

FAZmobile
Oy, that’s hot!
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Yes, Yes, BAC is rallying, but I’m not trusting this.

Rather, I think the FAZtards are about to have their sup o’ gluttony, here, as the weeklies try to reclaim the 13 and 34 week EMA’s they’ve already pierced.

I’ve found this is a fruitful place from which to grab some SKIFFLES, or in these more modern day, FAZ-mobile vouchers for a ride home.

I expect we’ll get turned at some point in the range between the $46.75 and $47.50 mark. That’s when the Citi Parti will experience the first pang of hangover, and then, le deluge.

And gold is overbought even as the dollar surges back, same with silver.   I will stay with my hedges there, and perhaps add a GDX hedge as well tomorrow.

It can’t be sunny every day.   Keep your chevrons up.

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Stay Out of the FAZ-Mobile!

 Burning Fazmobile

It Burns! It Burns!

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Let me first apologize for my inability to post last night.
It’s a long story, but let’s just say it involved egregious, home-wrecking (figuratively and literally) home repair arcana which prevented me– via “boy in the bubble” -style plastic sheathing– from reaching my home laptop without risking catastrophic ruin to both home and marriage.

Luckily, I’ve ingeniously derived a path to said electronic tools, and even  — bonus! — unto my very wine cellar.   Alas and alack, all my wine glasses are also encased, Young John Travolta-style, behind aforesaid egregious plastic bubble.  They mock me, even now, in light-hearted crystalline tones.   Resulting situation?  I may go “Mayberry Otis” on a bottle of 2005 Mondavi right here, right now.  

Tell no one.

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Where was I?  Oh yes, the banks.   Boy didn’t it seem like last week was the begining of the sequel to late 2008’s monster hit– Bear Stearns/Lehman II, Electric Bugaloo?   But let’s get serious — when was the last time quantitive easing was bad for banks?  Well, it’s certainly not bad for banks that have crapola bonds on their balance sheets when the ECB and Fed are acting like willing buyers in the market place.   Get on the QE II Cruise Liner, people.

For stabilisation (sic) purposes only, please. 

No folks, they are not going to let those banks die again.  “They” are stupid, and “they” are short sighted, but they are not going to make the same mistake twice.   Not in a … what? (Cups hand to ear)… Go ahead, say it with me… Not in a whaaat?

NOT IN A FREAKING ELECTION YEAR, Baby!

Come, come– I know you are desperate for some serious chart action.  You cry out for confirmation of my biases, and I will not disappoint.   Slake thy thirst on this weekly of the $BKX (the Philadelphia Bank Index):

Four out of five weeks down, sure, but where has our price found purchase, and even (dare I say it?) a phat DOJI?  That’s right, at the same 34-week EMA that’s served as mother’s comfort lo these last eleven months. 

And those were “recovery months,” which I don’t think will be fully completed until we test that 200 week EMA up there (in red) which, by golly, sure looks like it wants to at least decrease its slope, if not stop descending altogether.  Ain’t that a thing? 

Now lookee see, here, I’ve got another juicy and nutritious daily chart for you, and yes, it’s the $BKX again. 

No, it’s not pretty but in this case, it’s the 200day EMA that’s serving as support as well as that significant support line (we’ve used it before) at just over $49.00.   I think the printing presses are winning this one, son, and they are not going to let those banks go down without a much more serious fight than we saw last week with the Greco-Spaniard panic attack. 

So prepare ye for more clack-clack-clacking that will lead to much ack-ack-ACKing.   

This market may very well be setting up for a great fall (perhaps, in the Fall?), but I think the powers that “try to be” will continue to stuff those banks so full of banque notes and letters of exchequer that you won’t be able to address the tellers for the interchange of proper monies. 

They fight the last war, that’s what they do well.   Look not ye, then, unto the burning FAZ -mobile!  And whilst ye may not wish to grab polar opposite FAS, I continue to think BBT and FITB are decent holds in this environment.

And lest we forget,  continue to look to the PM sector as your hedge to this egregiousity, as always.   

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