Watch for Gay Giraffes!
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As you know, I’ve been trimming the positions recently, despite taking an initial 2k share position in Central European Distribution [[CEDC]] today at $38.62 as announced on The PPT.  I also took the opportunity this afternoon to trim half of my Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] position in the high $79.20’s and 2k shares of Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] at $46.78.

On the PM side, I also dumped another 2k shares of [[CDE]] at $17.12 and 2k shares of Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] at $16.95. Do not fret, these are just minor sales in anticipation of a pullback.

I think we’re in for at least a brief pullback and I’ve been looking for some easy fat, sloppy targets that offer some bang for the buck, all giraffe puns excepted. I think I’ve found one in our old furry booted friend Deckers Outdoor Corporation [[DECK]] . 

“Lookee Here” as some apish Yankees would say:

 

We’ve all made some money on shorting Deckers Outdoor Corporation [[DECK]] in the past, let’s do it again, for auld (sic) times sake.

Best to you all.

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I only have one daughter, and she’s something special. Today’s her ninth birthday and may I live to see many more. As I say, she’s something special, and she’s either going to drive me to an early grave or make me proud beyond all measure.

Or both.

Developing….
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As for the market, I’ve got some updates on the Jacksonians. I’ve decided, that — market precluding — I’m going to start giving updates only on a weekly basis. Two reasons for that.  One, it strikes me that you all are not ridiculously fired up to get a daily update, and two, it being somewhat of a pain in the ass to do daily, AND it being a long term portfolio, it’s better for us all if I just throw the chart out there once a week.   As you can see, I’ve done that below. 

I will continue to mention Jacksonians that “need to be bought” throughout the week, just as I hammered on [[TC]]  and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] this week.    I just won’t be plotting their every move.   It grows wearisome, and the feedback hasn’t been overwhelming.    Any of you who have specific questions, please feel free to ask in the comment section.

Some ideas for the upcoming week… two longs and a short.  First the longs, as I believe we may be in an upward spiral here to at least 1010 on the S&P 500.  [[CNXT]] is a crazy little tech play that’s been showing as much promise as Amkor Technology, Inc. [[AMKR]] (a play I am already in).   I really like the recent moves, and think a cautious player should feel good about entering over $1.50.  The chart tells the story:

I also like coal and gas fired electricity producer Mirant Corporation [[MIR]] here. I made a ton of money on this company’s preferred’s back when it was in, and coming out of bankruptcy, and now that it’s out, it’s generationg asset heavy mix has started to perk up the acquisition minded utility market again. Whether this sucker ever gets bought out, it’s a perpetual bridesmaid and I believe it will gain traction in this coming cycle. The chart shows that interest moving:

Last my short possibility.  Now, don’t go crazy with this, as I think it may take a little time to develop.  Deckers Outdoor Corporation [[DECK]] crapped the bed last Friday on some bad analyst talk.  Whether it will continue to break down will be the tale of the chart.  As you can see, I’ve marked where I think it’s safe to start shorting this ugly booted mother.   I’ve had some success in this one in the past, and if you believe, like me, that retail will lead the way down this Fall, then this is a nice one to keep an eye on.  Be cautious, however, and pay attention to the markers as indicated:

Last the Jacksons, and their moves from last week, which are mostly glorious. I have reduced cash somewhat in rebuying more Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and may deploy some more, especially as I have taken off the [[TZA]] hedge play. Until next time, ciao.
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Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	17-Jul	Change	24-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$            28.47		$       30.99	8.85%		$        9,357	0.50%		Will be breaking new ground over $32.
EGO	9.21		9.27	0.65%		$        8,686	0.03%		Bouncing off 20 day (9.05)
GDX	38.64		39.90	3.26%		$      12,076	0.24%		Consolidation range pullback
GLD	91.93		93.41	1.61%		$      10,743	0.10%		Break of $94 important
IAG	10.22		11.11	8.71%		$      13,699	0.72%		Best long term hold in the PM’s
MON	75.41		84.16	11.60%		$      13,352	0.93%		Back over 200 day looking good again
NRP	23.12		23.00	-0.52%		$        4,774	-0.01%		Above all MA’s and looking strong again
PAAS	19.24		19.68	2.29%		$      11,820	0.16%		Expect a pullback, but buy there ($19)
RGLD	40.67		41.78	2.73%		$      11,545	0.19%		Above all MA’s and looking strong again
SLV	13.17		13.66	3.72%		$      11,097	0.25%		$14.60 next target
SLW	8.48		9.23	8.84%		$        8,965	0.48%		200 day strong support @ 8.40
SSRI	19.15		20.08	4.86%		$      11,681	0.34%		Over evern MA and looking for more
TBT	53.56		53.19	-0.69%		$      10,596	-0.04%		Looking to make a move again
TC	12.36		14.75	19.34%		$      12,141	1.41%		A thing of beauty, get ready for pullback
TCK	21.06		24.49	16.29%		$      16,283	1.59%		A thing of beauty, get ready for pullback
TZA	–		–	0.00%		$              –	0.00%		Sold out remainder @ $18.26 this week
Cash (000)	$          16.89		$     16.89	0.01%		$    16,891	0.00%		Reduced by MON and TC purchases
AVG (weekly)				5.38%		$  183,706	6.87%
AVG (monthly)				3.00%		Actual
AVG (inception)				20.86%		Return	22.47%

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