It’s not like I don’t get little enough sleep as it is… No, Fly’s gotta start chucking cherry bombs over at his place, talking all kinds of pina colada-induced nonsense about voting for the Emperor again, despite his concerted attack on the American economic system and his attempt to “transform” us into Denmark in the middle of a mild recession that is getting less and less milder as we speak.
All because he thinks Rick Perry — 11 year governor of Texas and one-time Southern Democrat — is going to abolish the Fed? Can he be serious? No, I don’t think he is, either.
No, I’m blaming it on second-degree sunburn, and leaving off. I don’t believe the Fly really wants to turn us into Europe… not with what’s going on over there right now, as their underfunded demographically-imploding welfare states dissolve into a puddle of ill-trained and ungrateful flash-mobs. And really, what can you expect from a country whose National Health Service had 239 patients die from malnutrition last year?
Yes, you read that right… click on the article to read more about the glories of social democracy and state-based healthcare provision. Obamacare, anyone?
It’s okay. You made a mistake. It hurts, and it’s embarrassing. Hell, you’ve got to ditch all that blue and red block-printed poster-board and tee shirtage. But don’t fret… there’s good news.
You’ll have a chance to right that wrong in 2012. It’s not going to be the “perfect candidate.” It never is. Sometimes you have to choose the good over the perfect, and sometimes even the lesser of two evils.
In this case, the choice won’t be that difficult. You’ve got a chance to undo some pretty significant damage. I know you’ll do the right thing in the end.
I remain stolid in my recent positions. My hedges, such as they are, harden into calcified barnacles, neither sentient nor proud. Their growth is de minimus, moving like the tides, if at all.
I’m not wholly convinced that the PM’s are quite dead or ready to roll over, so I guess I will wait for a sound. In the meantime, I continue to winnow positions in other areas, moving to an almost wholly “cash and PM” portfolio, save for my ETF positions and the BWA, WNR and UPS I still own.
OpEx is a tough week. Let us watch and wait for it to resolve itself. AUY continues to look fantastic, btw.
Yes, I sold off or hedged quite a bit of my gold and silver exposure last week, though I still keep quite a few low-floaters for “venture capital” type opportunities. Like as not I will trim down to the core this week. My reasons for doing so are two-fold:
First, we saw gold hit a significant hurdle last week at $1820 or so without either silver or the miners really taking off. We then saw gold drop more than $70 in scant days, taking it’s little sister silver along with it (far more precipitously, I might add). Now both have stabilized, but I can’t help but think we’ve been riding this latest wave long enough and it’s time to step-off while there’s still some peanuts on the floor to take home to Mom.
Second, my gut is telling me the string is playing out, not only on our precious metal positions (albeit temporarily), but also on the market itself.
But not before a bit of a party.
As you may recall, I bot some ERX and some EDC last week and those have been doing fine. I might add to some of those this week, depending on the reception we get tomorrow morning at around 11 am (my preferred “taste time.”) I may even grab some TNA and QLD as well.
But be forewarned — I’m only grabbing ETF’s because they are easier to monitor with regard to swift moves in the market, which I fully expect in these next few months. Like as not, I will trim all extraneous non-ETF positions in the coming weeks, as the market continues to regain its health from the recent depredations. That means even UPS and BWA will go — though they may go last.
I already gave you this idea a few weeks back, but I wanted to bring my favorite Japanese gold play (not really), Yamana Gold (AUY), back to your attention. As I mentioned in my last feature, this is one of the longest saucer-consolidation patterns I’ve seen forming in the gold sector since the March 2009 Recovery, and I think we are finally done consolidating and getting ready to launch with vigour (sic). Look at the weekly one more time:
Note that the real breakout is probably going to be somewhere above $14, and you might want to wait til you see that number. I already own some, however, and may add on strength tomorrow. As I would with any long term consolidation in a bull, I expect AUY to launch quite nicely once it breaks out of it’s saucer pattern here.
Today I cut back on some over-weighted positions, as announced in The PPT. That includes AAU, RGLD, DGP, some more NUGT and even silver star AG. I still have tonnes left in each of those names, btw.
Today I took advantage of Crazy Eddie “low, low, low” prices to nab some more UPS and TCK as well. UPS is perhaps one of the most solid companies in the world. It was on sale today so I added. I also opened a new position in Borg Warner (BWA) which I have been stalking from much higher numbers. I really like the auto supplier space. There’s tonnes of activity going on in the Private Equity market there as well.
Best to you all. I will be on the road again tomorrow but checking in.
Boomer’s First Signed Act! (Check out the Instrumentalism!)
As you well know, I am a believer– in many senses of the word (and the Word, and the weurd ). But like Mickey Dolenz aimlessly tapping against the rim of a snare drum in an attempt to appear Ringo-weurthy, I am stuck here twiddling my Thaler collection, waiting for the second shoe to drop.
You remember my “I want to Believe” chart from four days back? Well, it’s still stubbornly refusing to resolve itself, neither breaking down nor breaking out. It’s enough to make one test the family flame-thrower out on the neighbor’s bird-stalking cat…
My patience is wearing to a thin thread, but I know I won’t have to wait much longer. The dollar looks to be in its last throes, and will either spit the bit tonight, or take off in one last spasm of orgasmic excess followed by a quick-wilt into mid-February. Your cue will be the $77.80 line on the DX-Y. I believe that is our point of no return.
Should the dollar fail there, I will be loading kegs of AGQ-brand sweet mead onto the back of my ale truck, along with SIL, SLW, and of course, EXK. I will also have gold brands for you to swill, likely headed by IAG, ANV and EGO. I never sold much RGLD, but I will likely be adding to that role as well.
For those of you who want something right now ,and cannot otherwise hold your water, I think the Borg cannot resist assimilating this latent bull, and so BWA should be bought here with alacrity. The same goes for the providers of mining machinery to the mines above, JOYG and TEX.
Today was an interesting day, as I sat and ate samiches whilst ordering my sons around as they attempted to clear my ice-bound driveway, and thereby freeing me to do my “early” Christmas shopping.
A roommate of mine with four sons came up with an adage one day with which I have come to heartily concur. It states, “Four boys equals one man.” He now lives in Rochester and had addressed the adage specifically to snow shoveling. Very appropos, therefore, for me today.
Since only two of my sons are old enough to tackle hard work tasks like ice clearing, in effect I had one half a man working out there today. The fact that I had to take over, thereby endangering my back, but also assuring that I’d get to the malls before midnight tonight, is a testament to my friend’s adage. Truly, young teenage males are good for almost nothing save extraordinary food consumption at unprecedented rates.
Please let me know if you need a guest for your seven course holiday meals.
With regaurd (sic) to the stocks (sic) market, I have heaped praises on Le Magistrate’s choice of CMI for over a year now. It has been a paragon of automotive (and trucking) ascendency in this lamely recovering economy, and even today it shows little signs of pausing. Nevertheless, we must be on our guard to pick up anything we can on a retrace, hence the following chart:
Another auto sector darling that has made even more auspicious returns in the same period that CMI has is the head of the Collective, the Borg Warner (BWA). Note how they have assimilated capital returns in an ever efficient, if soulless Locutus-like way over the same period as CMI….
I like this action almost as much as I like UPS looking to broach new all time highs. But we must be patient, and let the trade “come in” a bit, as le Magistrate would say. You can note my target levels, if you so choose.
Also, I think the PM’s have made an valiant effort to maintain here, which usually means there are buyers dying to get in. With that in mind, I bit the bullet and went to a 60% position on EXK, with a 5 k purchase today in the low $6.90′s.
The dollar is down as I type this, so perhaps my faithfulness shall be rewarded. Until tomorrow then, stay assimilated, Borg Collective plebs.