[Day] Recap

Another tough day in the market, with the Dow making a complete reversal throughout the day (opened +50, move to +100, closed +10). My guess is conservative bids emerged once investors realized we have more inflation-indication data coming out in the next few days. When you think about it, it makes sense. The early rally was attributable to easement of oil, which essentially was a gap up from the punishment that rising energy costs gave to stocks last week. A few hours later, I guess we realized that what’s more important are interest rates and inflation… it’s not so important to me, but it’s important to the street and that’s enough to effect all major indexes.

Notebook
… TIE has fallen back below $25. Where’s the fight in this stock that I’m so used to seeing?
… NETL showed consistent strength throughout the day.
… NRMX had contrarian action. Bad news, but stock goes up 20%. I tried to short, but “no shares left available to short” message popped up.
… BDCO surely disappointed investors by failing to top $5.50. But I’m not surprised, it’s a junk stock to begin with. I need just a little more sell off before I can short.
… BBC was super volatile after reporting another record quarter. The trading range was $13.75 down to $12.49. Okay, I’m bearish now.
…NVAX, good thing I never bought on the conference call hype which brought the stock all the way to $3.23. It ended up closing at the low of $2.85! I don’t go long stocks that rally on bad earnings anyway.
…HANS, fought hard throughout the day, but only managed to close up 40 cents. I think you can swing trade this stock in either direction when it’s close to $30.
…GROW, a very strong stock that is breaking out on relatively high volume. Stock pays no attention to market indexes, so trend is your friend until it ends.
…ICLR, is continuing to make me look like an idiot. Stock reached a new 52-week high today. Switching back to neutral until I see a confirmed top.
…OMNI, falling falling falling since it failed to breakout two weeks ago.
…ASEI, is very volatile since earnings. This stock may gap back down now that all the weak short sellers have exited. I just might enter tomorrow.

Man, the bulls were riding all high, then suddenly got whacked-side-the-head by a giant bear. Tuesday we get PPI data, and Wednesdasy we get CPI data so don’t believe any rally until the week is over. Currently I’m searching for weak stocks to short into the close. Looks like the Dow will be under 11,000 this week.

XNL– support dropped from $5.51 to $5.25

BBC– panic selling going on despite good earnings. Day’s range: $13.96 – 11.50!! Should move a little back up.

Dow up 60+, TIE down .70? Stock is clearly losing strength… short.

BDCO had “good earnings” (not really) but rally failed horribly! oil is down… short.

Sold USG into strength. Should have sold later. Hmmm.

Premarket futures have a heavy bullish bias, and there’s ample reason to be so- ceasefire in Middle East, oil down to $73, and positive markets overseas. I’m looking for a strong rally for at least first few hours (Dow may gain +100), then we’ll see if the momentum can stick after noon.

Here are some expectations by me. If the Dow or Nasdaq can complete a 1%+ gain today, I expect the following to be very likely:

• HANS 4%-7% gain
• ASEI 4%-5% gain
• BDCO 7% – 10% gain
• AAPL 2%-3% gain
• TIE 4%-6% gain

It’s going to be a tough week on the street with all types of data reports coming in. Whenever you trade during the third week of the month, look for all types of volatility. In addition to the options expiring this Friday, look out for PPI data on Tuesday, and the more important CPI data on Wednesday. These inflation indicators will be more important now that the street is even more uncertain about inflation despite Bernanke’s move to halt hikes last week.

Stocks on my watchlist. Click [here] for 5-day Yahoo quotes:

• Blue Dolphin (BDCO) – reported earnings last Friday, when everyone was expecting this Tuesday. This caught shorts off guard, especially since they did beat expectations. Bullish- small cap stop will rise on any good news.
• Bodisen Biotech (BBC) – they report Monday. Stock has history of being extremely volatile.
• Xethanol (XNL) – interesting story developing in this stock. Stock tanked after negative reports from Stocksleuth.com. CEO rebutted on Friday sending stock up big, but rally has waned throughout the day.
• Energy drink stocks: Hansen (HANS), Leading Brands (LBIX). Hansen may have a dead-cat-bounce, and Leading Brands looks very unsteady… like it’s ready to falllllllllllllll.
• Medifast (MED)- they report aftermarket. Expect big move after hours. Which way? No good idea. Big pre-earnings runup already made. I would like to see Medifast breakout past $20, but big brother NutriSystems (NTRI) may have given us a preview of what actually might happen.
• Netease (NTES) – reports after hours. Chinese stocks getting hit lately. May short this one into close.
• Novavax (NVAX) reports 10 am. I’m expecting a transcript pre-market.