Nothing to write home about today, but still in the green on a travel day which is a bonus for me. Avg short position price was @ 1416.50 and it was covered @ an average of 1415. We got close to my target down around 1412, but I was in the air and given Mr. Market’s nice bounce there I’d rather close up the original position before getting on the plane for the second (much longer) leg. I think the bias is still to the downside today barring any ‘fiscal cliff’ breakthrough.
-EyeWall
Overnight I was filled (short) @ 1419.50 as an episode of ‘algos gone wild’ took the ES up to 1424 this morning. I’m flying today so I’ll be setting a stop just above 1430 with a target just above Friday’s lows.
Trade safe. Headline risk is very high (in both directions).
-EyeWall
China PMI was decent so we have the ‘Asian Levitation’ happening. But, here’s the thing. I have backtested strategies that absolutely require ignoring everything between 5pm CT and midnight CT on Sunday night because the ES is so thin. I have a limit order in up @ 1419.50 to short another contract but it hasn’t been hit, yet.
So far things are about as expected, it would be good to get filled a bit higher on another contract to bring breakeven up, but not strictly necessary. Keep in mind, there is a lot of leverage in the ES and being able to manage a trade is just as important as being correct on direction. Let me say that again so it sinks in. You don’t have to always be correct on the entry, but being able to manage the trade (and the leverage associated with it) is paramount to working out of trades that may go against you initially.
I know, this is Blasphemy, but it is also 100% true.
Hi all,
We’ll get to know each other soon enough, but generally I seem to be the polar opposite of ‘Le Fly’. Where he casts a wide net, I focus on a single trading vehicle. While he typically is long or cash, I’m almost exclusively short or cash. If he’s Flo Rida, I’m Michael Bublé…or something like that.
Anyway, I’m new here and plan to show you how I trade, document my performance and share what I’ve learned over the last 15 years or so of progressively more aggressive trading.
For tonight, while the rest of you are eating BBQ and drinking beer, I’ve digested everything that went on this weekend and have decided to put on a ‘starter’ short position in the ES (that’s the e-mini futures). I’m short a single contract @ 1413.50 (reminder, the ES trades at a slight discount to the index right now) which is the equivalent position of being short the S&P 500 with a $70,675 position size. You calculate this by multiplying the value of a single point of the contract ($50) times the index value (1413.50). We’ll cover lots more on the mechanics and advantages of futures over the course of time so no need to take notes.
Generally I’m worried we’ll be tipping into a recession but you can’t be too negative with the FED buying $40B of worthless MBS from its constituents per month who then do the FED’s bidding by putting the new cash ‘to work’ elsewhere in the market. That said, I like the risk / reward tonight for a little pullback and a nice fat opening gap tomorrow so I’m short as of 5:07:59 (to be exact) central time. I’ll set a target somewhere around a half a percent and may put a few more contracts on (short) if the index does an ‘Asian levitation’ over the next few hours.
Any questions, ask away.
-EyeWall
Nothing to write home about today, but still in the green on a travel day which is a bonus for me. Avg short position price was @ 1416.50 and it was covered @ an average of 1415. We got close to my target down around 1412, but I was in the air and given Mr. Market’s nice bounce there I’d rather close up the original position before getting on the plane for the second (much longer) leg. I think the bias is still to the downside today barring any ‘fiscal cliff’ breakthrough.
-EyeWall
Overnight I was filled (short) @ 1419.50 as an episode of ‘algos gone wild’ took the ES up to 1424 this morning. I’m flying today so I’ll be setting a stop just above 1430 with a target just above Friday’s lows.
Trade safe. Headline risk is very high (in both directions).
-EyeWall
China PMI was decent so we have the ‘Asian Levitation’ happening. But, here’s the thing. I have backtested strategies that absolutely require ignoring everything between 5pm CT and midnight CT on Sunday night because the ES is so thin. I have a limit order in up @ 1419.50 to short another contract but it hasn’t been hit, yet.
So far things are about as expected, it would be good to get filled a bit higher on another contract to bring breakeven up, but not strictly necessary. Keep in mind, there is a lot of leverage in the ES and being able to manage a trade is just as important as being correct on direction. Let me say that again so it sinks in. You don’t have to always be correct on the entry, but being able to manage the trade (and the leverage associated with it) is paramount to working out of trades that may go against you initially.
I know, this is Blasphemy, but it is also 100% true.
Hi all,
We’ll get to know each other soon enough, but generally I seem to be the polar opposite of ‘Le Fly’. Where he casts a wide net, I focus on a single trading vehicle. While he typically is long or cash, I’m almost exclusively short or cash. If he’s Flo Rida, I’m Michael Bublé…or something like that.
Anyway, I’m new here and plan to show you how I trade, document my performance and share what I’ve learned over the last 15 years or so of progressively more aggressive trading.
For tonight, while the rest of you are eating BBQ and drinking beer, I’ve digested everything that went on this weekend and have decided to put on a ‘starter’ short position in the ES (that’s the e-mini futures). I’m short a single contract @ 1413.50 (reminder, the ES trades at a slight discount to the index right now) which is the equivalent position of being short the S&P 500 with a $70,675 position size. You calculate this by multiplying the value of a single point of the contract ($50) times the index value (1413.50). We’ll cover lots more on the mechanics and advantages of futures over the course of time so no need to take notes.
Generally I’m worried we’ll be tipping into a recession but you can’t be too negative with the FED buying $40B of worthless MBS from its constituents per month who then do the FED’s bidding by putting the new cash ‘to work’ elsewhere in the market. That said, I like the risk / reward tonight for a little pullback and a nice fat opening gap tomorrow so I’m short as of 5:07:59 (to be exact) central time. I’ll set a target somewhere around a half a percent and may put a few more contracts on (short) if the index does an ‘Asian levitation’ over the next few hours.
Any questions, ask away.
-EyeWall
