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A Pod Cast With Gary Shilling on Recession til 2010… Philly Fed Index: Prior -2.2 / Mkt Expects -4.8 / Actual -5… Initial Claims: Prior 565k / Mkt Expects 535k / Actual 522k… Plus Earnings Highlights: BAX*, BIIB*, IBM*, HOG*, JPM*, CY*, FCS*, GOOG*, MAR*, NOV*, & NOK*

Shilling:

Scrolling Headlines From Yahoo in Play

IBM Sees Earnings Rise 12%

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — IBM Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!ibm/quotes/nls/ibm (IBM 112.97, +2.33, +2.11%) on Thursday reported a second-quarter profit of $3.1 billion, or $2.32 a share, on revenue of $23.3 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research had forecast IBM to earn $2.01 a share on $23.56 billion in sales. During the same period a year ago, IBM earned $2.8 billion, or $1.97 a share, on revenue of $26.8 billion. IBM also raised its full-year earnings forecast to at least $9.70 a share from $9.20 a share.

IBM Raises Full Year Guidance Despite Revenue Drop

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Shares in IBM rose 2.5 percent in afternoon trade, leading the market higher ahead of the company’s quarterly results, as investors bet on the possibility of an improved full-year forecast.

Analysts, on average, expect International Business Machines Corp (NYSE:IBMNews) to report later on Thursday a 12 percent drop in second-quarter revenue to $23.5 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.

But earnings per share are expected to rise slightly to $2.01, helped by a shift to more profitable businesses and by cost cuts. as well as by a lower number of shares.

William Lefkowitz, options strategist at vFinance Investments, said the whisper number was much higher, around $2.20 per share to $2.30 per share.

Analysts also said they were focusing on the possibility of a higher outlook from IBM. The company’s previous outlook was for full-year earnings of “at least $9.20” per share — a target many said looked easily achievable due to a stabilizing economy.

Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi said IBM may raise its outlook to reflect a solid first half of the year, “perhaps to ‘at least $9.30’.”

IBM has fared better than many other technology companies, helped in part by its growing focus on profitable software and services like outsourcing and technology support.

“EPS is likely to see upward revisions as the year progresses, and the strong defensiveness of IBM’s portfolio makes it attractive in an uncertain spending environment,” Sacconaghi said in a research report earlier this week.

IBM shares rose $2.74, or 2.6 percent, to $109.96 in afternoon trade.

GOOG Beats The Street by $0.28 cent…Stock Falls 2% in AH

* Q2 EPS ex-items $5.36 vs Wall St view $5.08

* Q2 revenue $5.52 bln vs Wall St view $5.49 bln

* Shares down 2 pct in after hours trade

SAN FRANCISCO, July 16 (Reuters) – Google Inc’s (GOOG.O) quarterly profit and revenue rose in the second quarter despite the tough advertising market, beating Wall Street expectations.

The Web search leader said on Thursday that revenue in the three months ended June 30 totaled $5.52 billion, compared with $5.37 billion a year earlier. Analysts were looking for $5.49 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.

Google posted net income of $1.48 billion, or $4.66 a share, compared with $1.25 billion, or $3.92 a share, in the year-ago period.

Excluding certain items Google earned $5.36 a share, ahead of the $5.08 per share expected by analysts.

The Mountain View, California, company did not provide a financial outlook, in keeping with its custom.

Shares of Google fell to $432.00 in after-hours trade on Thursday, from their Nasdaq close of $442.60. (Reporting by Alexei Oreskovic; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)


NOV Raises Full Year Guidance

Swiss drugmaker Novartis raised its full-year forecast for drug sales on Thursday, betting on income from cancer and heart medicines after second-quarter net profit met expectations.

Novartis, which faces loss of exclusivity on its top-selling blood pressure drug Diovan in 2012, now sees sales in local currencies at its drugs unit growing at a high single-digit rate. It had previous forecast growth in the mid-to-high single digits.

“A pleasant surprise in pharmaceuticals, where growth and profitability has been better than expected,” said Helvea analyst Karl-Heinz Koch…..



NOK Drops on Reduced Market Share

By Diana ben-Aaron

July 16 (Bloomberg) — Nokia Oyj dropped as much as 10 percent in Helsinki trading after competition from the iPhone and the BlackBerry forced the world’s biggest maker of mobile phones to reduce forecasts for market share and profitability.

The market share will be little changed this year, compared with a previous forecast of an increase, Nokia said in a statement today. The operating margin in the main division will be little changed in the second half from the first, when it was 11.3 percent. The Espoo, Finland-based company earlier predicted the margin would be in the “teens.”

Nokia still anticipates the global handset market will shrink about 10 percent in 2009 because of weaker economies and consumer spending. Nokia has encountered more competition in high-end phones, where Apple Inc.’s iPhone and Research In Motion Inc.’s BlackBerry models have attracted buyers.

“It takes a while to turn around handset portfolios and they are struggling at the moment particularly to get their high-end product correct,” said Stuart O’Gorman, an investment manager at Henderson Global Investors Ltd. in Edinburgh who oversees $1.2 billion in technology stocks including Nokia. “At some stage Nokia can pull itself out, but it may take longer than people are hoping for.”

Nokia dropped as much as 1.13 euros to 9.97 euros in Helsinki. The stock traded at 10.09 euros at 2:38 p.m. Before today, the stock was unchanged this year, giving the company a market value of 41.6 billion euros ($58.7 billion).

Margin Pressure

The second-half non-IFRS operating margin in the main devices and services unit will be at about the same level as in the first half, Nokia said.

Second-quarter net income fell to 380 million euros, or 10 cents a share, from 1.1 billion euros, or 29 cents, a year earlier. Sales slid 25 percent to 9.9 billion euros. Analysts predicted profit of 361 million euros on sales of 10.1 billion euros, according to the average estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The Finnish company shipped 103.2 million phones in the quarter at an average price of 62 euros, down from 74 euros a year earlier. The drop in average selling prices was “primarily due to general price pressure and a higher proportion of sales of lower priced products,” Nokia said.

Market Share

Nokia estimates its mobile device market share in the second quarter was 38 percent, down from 40 percent a year earlier and up from 37 percent in the first quarter. The company said it lost market share in Latin America, the Asia-Pacific region and North America from a year earlier.

“We think the share is going to be about constant in the next quarter, but even more than that, we’re going to focus on getting the most value out of every one of those sales,” Chief Financial Officer Rick Simonson said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.

Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications Ltd., the world’s fifth-largest handset maker, today reported a 43 percent drop in unit shipments from a year earlier and posted its fourth straight quarterly loss.

“Competition remains intense, but demand in the overall mobile device market appears to be bottoming out,” Chief Executive Officer Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo said in the statement.

BAX Second Q Rises

DEERFIELD, Ill. (AP) — Specialty drug and medical device maker Baxter International says its profit rose 8 percent in the second quarter on better margins, more than offsetting a decline in sales.

The Deerfield, Ill.-based company earned $587 million, or 96 cents per share, up from profit of $544 million, or 85 cents per share, in the same period a year ago. Sales fell 2 percent to $3.12 billion.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected profit of 94 cents per share on revenue of $3.12 billion.

Looking ahead, Baxter International Inc. expects third-quarter adjusted profit between 95 cents and 97 cents per share, while analysts expect profit of 96 cents per share. Baxter also boosted its full-year profit outlook.



BIIB’s Revenues Rise 10%

CAMBRIDGE, Mass.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIBNews), a global biotechnology leader in the discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialization of innovative therapies, today reported its second quarter 2009 results.

Second Quarter 2009 Highlights:

  • Total revenues were $1.1 billion, an increase of 10% from $1.0 billion in the second quarter of 2008. The increase was driven primarily by the continued growth of TYSABRI (natalizumab) revenues, which were up 27% over the prior year to $188 million for the quarter, and AVONEX® (interferon beta-1a) sales, which increased 12% over the prior year to $591 million for the quarter.
  • TYSABRI global in-market net sales reached a $1 billion run rate. Global in-market net sales of TYSABRI in the second quarter of 2009 were $254 million, of which $125 million was in the U.S. and $129 million was in rest of world markets.
  • The financial results for the second quarter included a payment of $110 million related to our recently announced collaboration and license agreement with Acorda Therapeutics, Inc.
  • On a reported basis, calculated in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. (GAAP), second quarter 2009 diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.49. GAAP net income attributable to Biogen Idec for the second quarter of 2009 was $143 million.
  • Non-GAAP diluted EPS for the second quarter of 2009 was $0.75. Non-GAAP net income attributable to Biogen Idec for the second quarter was $219 million. These totals include the impact of the collaboration payment to Acorda. A reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP results is included on Table 3 within this press release.

“During the second quarter we drove a clear acceleration of TYSABRI patient growth that puts the drug on a blockbuster run-rate,” said Biogen Idec CEO James C. Mullen, “Going forward, we continue to focus on products, pipeline and performance as the drivers of long-term shareholder value.”

Revenue Performance…..



JPM Tops Views, But Credit Losses Rise

* Net income $2.72 billion

* Credit losses more than double from year earlier

NEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters) – JPMorgan Chase & Co <JPM.N posted a higher quarterly profit on Thursday, saying strength in its core consumer and investment banking businesses offset a jump in credit losses.

Second-quarter net income rose to $2.72 billion from $2 billion a year earlier. Profit per share fell to 28 cents from 53 cents. Net revenue jumped 41 percent to $27.71 billion.

The bank said it set aside $9.7 billion for credit losses, up from $4.29 billion a year earlier but down from the first quarter’s $10.07 billion.

JPMorgan last month repaid $25 billion taken from the Troubled Asset Relief Program and is the largest U.S. bank to repay federal bailout money. It has said it will allow the Treasury Department to auction the attached stock warrants, rather than pay an inflated price to buy them back.


MAR Q2 Profits Decline 76%

NEW YORK (AP) — Marriott International says lower revenue and hefty restructuring charges pushed down its net income 76 percent in the second quarter.

Marriott and other hotel operators have suffered in the recession as both business and leisure travel wane.

Net income plummeted to $37 million, or 10 cents per share, from $157 million, or 42 cents per share. Excluding restructuring and other charges, profit was 23 cents per share, 2 cents better than the average analyst forecast.

Revenue slid 20 percent to $2.56 billion, while revenue per available room, a key metric for lodging companies, declined 26.1 percent.

The Bethesda, Md., company says its third-quarter income could be as low as 9 cents per share, or less than half the current analyst estimate.


HOG Cuts 1000k Jobs & Lowers Guidance

NEW YORK – Harley-Davidson Inc. said Thursday it is cutting 1,000 more employees and lowering its motorcycle shipment guidance as quarterly earnings continued to fall due to weaker sales.

The Milwaukee-based maker of the famous heavyweight motorcycles said it plans to cut another 700 hourly and 300 salaried employees from its ranks as it copes with falling demand for its high-end bikes.

“It is obviously a very tough environment for us right now, given the continued weak consumer spending in the overall economy for discretionary purchases,” Harley-Davidson President and CEO Keith Wandell said in a statement.

Harley, the top seller of heavyweight motorcycles, said its second-quarter income fell 91 percent to $19.8 million, or 8 cents per share. That’s down from $222.8 million, or 95 cents per share, in the same period last year.

Revenue declined 27 percent to $1.15 billion from $1.57 billion a year ago.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters forecast 24 cents per share on revenue of $1.15 billion.

Harley has been restructuring since the beginning of the year as it sought to cope with weaker sales. Demand for Harley’s motorcycles, which can run $20,000 or more, have taken a pounding in the recession as consumers pull back on discretionary spending.

Earlier this year, the company had said it planned to cut between 1,400 and 1,500 hourly positions and about 300 salaried positions.

In May, the company said it was weighing its options for its main motorcycle assembly plant in York, Pa. The operations at the facility aren’t competitive, the company said, and a study remains under way to assess whether production will remain in York or move to another U.S. site. It said Thursday it expects to make a decision by the end of the year.

Harley said its worldwide motorcycle sales fell 30 percent during the quarter. That was still better than the industrywide decline in heavyweight motorcycle sales of 48 percent.

Harley now expects to ship between 212,000 and 228,000 motorcycles to its dealers and distributors worldwide in 2009, down between 25 to 30 percent from 2008 shipments levels.

Previously, the company expected to ship between 264,000 and 273,000 motorcycles. In the third quarter, it expects to ship between 52,000 and 57,000 bikes.

The company is cutting production to meet reduced demand. It said Thursday it will implement production shutdowns at its York and Kansas City, Mo., production facilities, as well as at its powertrain operations at Menomonee Falls and Wauwatosa, Wis.

The company’s financing arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, posted an operating loss of $62.1 million in the second quarter, down from operating income of $37.1 million a year ago. The tight credit markets have weighed on the unit, which has been heavily reliant on the battered securitization market for funding.

Shares of Harley-Davidson closed Wednesday at $17.49. The stock has fluctuated between $7.99 and $48.05 in the last 52 weeks.

CY Beats Estimates, But Swings To a Loss

Cypress Semiconductor Corp. on Thursday beat expectations but reported a second quarter loss of $45.3 million, or 32 cents a share, compared with net income in the same period last year of $23.4 million, or 10 cents a share.

San Jose-based Cypress (NYSE:CY) had $155.8 million in revenue, down 26 percent from $209.6 million in the year-ago quarter.

Excluding items, the company would have reported a loss of $3.8 million, or 3 cents a share, compared with earnings of 12 cents a share a year ago.

Analysts expected, on average, a loss of 9 cents a share on $152 million in revenue.

FCS Sees Q2 Sales Drop

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) — Fairchild Semiconductor on Thursday reported a second-quarter loss, reversing a year-earlier profit, on a sharp drop in sales of its chips, which are used in consumer products, by industry and in automotive systems.

Fairchild posted a loss of $24.9 million, or 20 cents per share, compared with net income of $6.9 million, or 5 cents per share, in the second quarter of 2008.

The results include a series of charges for restructuring and impairments, impairments of equity investments, a gain related to a debt buyback, accelerated depreciation and other items.

Excluding those items, the adjusted loss for the 2009 second quarter was $3.5 million, or 3 cents per share. Adjusted profit a year earlier, which also included a series of gains and charges, was $21.5 million, or 17 cents per share.

Sales fell to $277.9 million, 34 percent below the $418.7 million in the year-earlier period.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, expected a loss of 11 cents per share, on revenue of $264.8 million. Analysts typically exclude one-time items from their estimates.

Mark Thompson, Fairchild’s president and CEO, said stronger order rates and higher backlog to start the third quarter indicates that end market demand will increase in the current period.

Thomson also said overall product pricing was down about 3 percent in the second quarter, compared with the first three months of the year. That was slightly weaker than prior quarters, “but we believe the trend is now moderating as order rates improve,” he said in a statement.

In heavy morning trading, Fairchild shares slipped 10 cents to $8.59, despite a forecast for third-quarter revenue that came in above Wall Street estimates.

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