China Beleives Signs of Recovery are Showing

Can we believe this ?

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s economic leaders struck a note of quiet confidence on Friday that the economy is already reviving in response to swift action to counter the shock of the global financial crisis.

Premier Wen Jiabao disappointed financial markets on Thursday by failing to announce an increase in a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) investment plan rushed out on November 9 as crumbling exports drained life from the world’s third-largest economy.

But comments by a trio of top officials suggested that, while Beijing stands ready to prime the pump further, extra measures might prove unnecessary because substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus is already coursing through the economy.

“The economic figures are stabilizing and recovering, which demonstrates that the policies have begun to show an impact,” central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said.

Speaking at a news conference during the National People’s Congress, the largely ceremonial parliament, Zhou said China had learned the lesson from other countries that a sluggish response to the crisis delays the restoration of confidence.

“We must err on the side of being quick and decisive.”

Zhou was speaking a day after Wen said China would ramp up deficit spending this year to hit its target of 8 percent growth, widely thought to be the minimum needed to keep a lid on unemployment and head off the threat of social unrest.

JOB MARKET STABILISING?

More than 20 million migrants who lost their jobs due to the global crisis are still without work, according to Chen Xiwen, director of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group.

But Chen said there had not been a fresh wave of migrants returning jobless to the countryside in the month since the end of the Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival, holiday.

“At present, according to the situation on the ground, with factories reopening after the Spring Festival, employment is recovering and there is no new phenomenon of migrant workers returning home,” Chen told a news conference.

The cautiously optimistic assessment follows figures suggesting that the economy may be on the cusp of a recovery.

New domestic-currency lending has surged since November and hit a record 1.6 trillion yuan in January, while surveys show manufacturing is picking up from very depressed levels.

On the other hand, a tentative recovery in steel prices has petered out, and recessions in China’s main export markets appear to be worsening.

Zhang Ping, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the main planning agency, said Beijing would keep tracking the flow of economic data before deciding whether extra stimulus was necessary. Continued…