I find myself in an indecisive mood today.
On the one hand, the $20B = 1% thesis tells me that stocks are likely headed higher for the duration of the the newly extended Operation Twist which means the duration of 2012. Today’s uplift in equities seems to indicate the correctness of this line of thinking.
On the other hand, $Silver and $WTIC are on a long, slow road to nowhere which would seem to indicate that the influx of liquidity via extended Twist has already been discounted and QE3 is not forthcoming any time soon. Today’s uplift in equities could be nothing more than end-of-quarter window dressing.
While equities are up nicely, $VIX is flat and acting in a very tame manner. I would have expencted $VIX to be down a lot today given the upside rip in equities. So maybe this is the tell I should be paying attention to. Therefore, later this afternnon before the close I am inclined to liquidate more of my legacy URTY position and add a little to my UVXY and TZA positions.
*Update – I did indeud (sic) sell some URTY and buy a little UVXY and TZA about 10 minutes before the closing bell.