Crazy shit. I will refrain from making stock price predictions. If you are wondering what I believe the stock market will do; I believe it will fluctuate. These predictions are in no particular order.
#1. Japan will begin to feel the pain of a huge deficit and aging demographic. This will come in the form of a weaker YEN.
#2. Countries within the EU, whom have suffered serious austerity measures and spending cuts will begin serious talks of leaving the EU. This will no longer be idle talk, but serious negotiations. They will either leave the EU in 2012, or plan a date in the future. These countries include all of the PIIGS.
#3. The EU will survive; However it will look drastically different from today. If I’m wrong on this it would make 99% of the people expecting a breakup correct. Something I find impossible to believe.
#4. China will continue to see housing price declines and will continue to call this a “soft landing”. Price declines will accelerate.
#5. Commodity prices will trade lower, watch the CRB.
#6. The Australian and Canadian housing markets will decline dramatically(20%+). This will also pull the Australian and Canadian dollars lower.
#7. Again, the US dollar will remain the flight to safety.
#8. RIMM will be either bought out, or trade higher.
#9. Blue chip companies with a good dividend will outperform the market(MSFT, INTC, IBM, MCD). Companies with no dividend will underperform (AAPL is a prime example). This does not mean that I expect blue chips to trade positive.
#10. Volatility will again reign supreme.
#11. North Korea and South Korea will begin talks of merger. If they do not merge in 2012, they will have plans to merge in the future. They will be named the United Korean Emirates(or something with the word “United”).
#12. Stupid shit beyond my ability to foresee will happen in the middle east.
#13. Recessions in all BRIC’s. Leading to further pressure on commodity prices.
#14. Housing in the US will not bottom, but will see large improvements. While, I do not see a housing bottom in 2012, it is very close.
#15. Obama will not be reelected.
#16. I will continue to bank serious coin, as per the usual.
These predictions are not something you should trade. They are simply my views. Remember, always trade with the market and you too can bank serious coin with me.
