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09-12-2014 Trading Journal

Market finally succumbed to bear pressure and closed down for the day.

SPY_Daily

Let’s see if the supports of the previous highs will hold.  For the bull to continue to have leg. the supports from the 79 & 89 MA lines must hold.

Today, I was busted on my $AMRN play.  Despite all the high cards in the deck and the high probability of the dealer busting (FDA change of heart), I was still busted.  This can happen and will happen time after time whether you are a Blackjack card counter or a stock investor weighting in all the due diligence.

Although I lost, I only gave back all gain and an acceptable losses.  In other words, the damage was not as bad and it was what I thought it would be if FDA denied.  While I wasn’t happy with the outcome, I would be more upset if FDA said yes and I wasn’t invested.  Thus, $AMRN was a worthy risk that didn’t work out.  Moving on.

Btw, I sold all $AMRN at the open to close the chapter on this investment thesis.  There are too many baggage for $AMRN to carry without the help of the label expansion from the SPA that was denied.  The Reduce-It trial is expensive and the loan is still out there.  Somehow, I’ve got a feeling that the FDA has decided they don’t care about the Reduce-It trial and they want $AMRN to kill it.  The whole point of the original SPA agreement was that it would allow Amarin to fund the Reduce-It trial with the label expansion if the Anchor trial passed.  Perhaps, the FDA wants the BP at the U.S. to buy out Amarin for a song so that all revenues generate will remain at the U.S.A.  We are talking about protectionism at play here.  Why didn’t I see this before?

Oh well.  There is other possibility for Amarin to rise out of its current dilemma by finding a partner of its own choosing instead of being forced to accept the low ball offers from the U.S. BPs.  If Amarin can persist to survive intact to complete the Reduce-It trial, a successful result will propel this company into multi-billion company in an instance.  I’ll definitely keep an eye on this company and be ready to jump back in.

With the free cash after selling $AMRN, I added some $LRAD.  I also added a bit more $ORBC.  The reversal of fortune on $AMRN caused me to review my $HYGS holdings.  I decided to reduce my over-exposed position giving its current mini-downtrend.  I was fortunate to get out at breakeven.

$DMRC corrected some after two days of gains.

DMRC_daily

 

The above weekly chart shows a green bar at the bottom of the trend. There is a high probability a bounce is in the card.  If it bounces from here, I may add some more with the free cash available.

$ORBC also exhibited a weekly green bar to close the week.

ORBC_weekly

Any positive news on the operational status of the recently launched satellites will give this one nice pop and start an uptrend going.

$LRAD is still meandering around the consolidation area.  Price is still on an uptrend line albeit the angle of the uptrend line has declined slightly.

LRAD_daily

The slight decline this week has been in low volume.  What prompted me to add more $LRAD today was due to the fact that price did not go down despite a negative general market downturn.  Let’s see if there is news next week to wake this one up again.

$HYGS was still struggling to find its bottom.

HYGS_daily

Although price is still within the 79 & 89 MA lines, I’m still holding too much position and I didn’t want to risk more drawdown after my port absorbed the $AMRN losses and gave back of gain. Thus, I sold down my position size to about half of original size.  Also notice that price could not climb above the 5 MA line today.

Needless to day, my port gave back a whopping 3.7% for a failed thesis and YTD gain is now at 8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, HYGS and 13% cash.

From my other account:

I dumped my $AMRN $2 Jan 2015 call option for a song since I figured something is better than nothing if I continued to hold. Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.

My 2 cents.

 

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09-11-2014 Trading Journal

These days, the market is acting like a basketball on a tub of water.  No matter how hard the bear pushed it down, it would pop right back up.

SPY_Daily

Another green bar to close the day.  Now, can it close above the 5 & 15 MA lines tomorrow?  Look like the 5 MA line is about to turn back up above the 15 MA line.

Today, three stocks were up with two down; but due to a steeper drop by $AMRN, my port dropped 0.7%.

AMRN_daily

Price dropped and touched the 89 MA line before bouncing back up.  At this stage, as I’ve mentioned yesterday, it doesn’t matter if price is at $2.30 or $1.81; what matter is what the FDC decides.  Unless you are a short-term trader, today plunge makes no difference.

$DMRC continued to bounce.

DMRC_daily

Thanks for that ’cause it helped cushion the $AMRN drawdown.  With a bullish engulfment bar yesterday and a follow-up rally today, the probability of a bottom increases another notch.

$ORBC also climbed back near the 79 & 89 MA lines.

ORBC_daily

If they can move above those two lines, then $ORBC will be in good shape.

With $DMRC and $ORBC gains cushioned against $LRAD and $AMRN drops today, my port gave back 0.7%.  YTD gain is now at 11.7%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

Still holding $FITX, $LRAD, $CLDX, and $AMRN Jan 2014 $2 call option.

My 2 cents.

 

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09-10-2014 Trading Journal

Market took a dive into the water at the open and then swam back to the surface to bake under the sun.

SPY_Daily

Now, if price can close above the 5 and 15 MA tomorrow, then we will have a bona-fide bounce.  In all likelihood, the 5 MA will now turn back up after touching the 15 MA line.

My port followed the market to the teeth.  Early morning my port was underwater with $LRAD, $HYGS, $ORBC swallowing gulp of water. Later on, both $LRAD and $HYGS swam back up nicely with $ORBC still down.

Meanwhile $DMRC finally pull its weight after such a long time trekking down the hill.  It actually saved the day by being up 7.9% for the day.

DMRC_daily

 

Could it be the bottom now?  Who know.  I’m still fully committed to $DMRC’s Digimarc barcode technology.  I truly believe it will see its day in the worldwide platform; the same way I’ve been holding $LRAD all these years believing its technology will finally be recognized.

$HYGS also bounced off the 79 MA line and ended with a green bar.

HYGS_daily

There is a good chance the bounce will continue due to the magical quality of the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$AMRN continued to struggle to stay above $2.

AMRN_daily

The battle raged on but was really pointless ’cause the real catalyst is essentially the FDA decision.

Thanks to $DMRC stellar performance to save the day, my port gained back 1.5% with YTD gain at 12.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

I bought back $CLDX in the morning due to its ability to hold positive while most other stocks were taking a beating.  It was a good decision since price closed higher than I bought.

Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.  I also bought $AMRN $2 Jan 2013 call options awhile ago which I’d forgotten to mention before.

My 2 cents.

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09-09-2014 Trading Journal

Market finally turned the corner to the downside after a month of rally.

SPY_Daily

A healthy correction is what I’ll call it at this time.  It is definitely too early to call this a top.

Meanwhile my port got slammed with four stocks down and one up.

I practically gave back all gain for $HYGS.  Although I initially bought this at $18+, my averaging up raised my average price.

HYGS_daily

This one is a tough one to swallow in the name of fundamentally hold.  Price is still at the support level next to the 79 MA line.

$AMRN and $ORBC, although down, are still holding its ground waiting for the fundamentally story to develop in mid-September.

$DMRC continued to sink…

$LRAD was a shiny star by closing on the positive side; but it was too little to help offset the losses.  My port gave back another 2.4% with YTD gain at 10.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

Sold $CLDX to take small losses. Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.

My 2 cents.

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09-08-2014 Trading Journal

While it seemed that the market was down but it really was just a neutral day.

SPY_Daily

Look at the daily chart above, it was a flat day despite a red bar.

I had three stocks down and two up for the day.

$LRAD continued to correct for the 3rd trading day.

LRAD_daily

I believe that it will start to bounce off the uptrend line tomorrow.  After hectic weeks of strong upswing, the recent corrections were expected so I’m not concerned.

$DMRC took a beating early in the day but made a gallant came back to reduce the loss before closing.

DMRC_daily

Now, with a nice long-tail bar formed today, we “may” just see the bottom.  Taking out today high later this week will at least confirm a bounce from here.

$HYGS gave back yesterday gain while $ORBC continued to inch higher.  But the star of the day is, of course, $AMRN.

AMRN_daily

$AMRN finally broke out of $2 and filled the gap from late January of this year.  This is a significant event for it shows that the sentiment has shifted back to the positive side.  All eyes are on the FDA decision that may come next week if not this week.

Due to getting hit hard on $LRAD and $HYGS but cushioned by gain on $AMRN, my port gave back 1.8%.  YTD gain is now at 13.3%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

I sold $KGJI and bought $CLDX.  Since this is a trading account, I tend to move things around more easily.  Talking about this being a trading account, I’ve yet to kick myself for not taking profit on $LRAD when it went all the way to $3.88.  But hindsight had a way of making a fool out of us; so I’m not going to dwell on it since the long-term prospect is still very good here.

My 2 cents.

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09-05-2014 Trading Journal

Market started off on the wrong foot but found its way back to the top.

SPY_Daily

On the daily chart above, you would think the bull roared back from almost falling off the cliff.  But when you look at the weekly chart below, it is just another up week.

SPY_Weekly

And the bull marches on.

Today my port had a close call with three up and two down.

$HYGS, $ORBC, and $AMRN managed to bounce back nicely after starting poorly from the open.

$HYGS ended the week slightly higher than last week close.

HYGS_daily

Price bounced off the 89 MA support line after touching it this morning is further proof of the magical quality in the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$ORBC also bounced off the long-term support line.

ORBC_daily

As we approach mid-Sept, price can see $7 in a New York minute when news of full operation of all new satellites is released.

$AMRN closed strong despite the pull from the bear during the week.

AMRN_daily

Also with a catalyst event in mid-Sept, price may shoot up if FDA reflects a positive attitude toward Vascepa.

$DMRC ended the week on the weak side.

DMRC_daily

 

Oh well, nothing for me to do but to wait.

While $LRAD was down today, I like the way it came back from the low of the day.

LRAD_daily

See how price bounced off the 15 MA line and closed near the resistance/support at $3.36?  The way I see it, this rally is far from over.

Thanks to the rally from three stocks, the gains were enough to offset the drawdown from $DMRC and $LRAD to get a breakeven for my port.  Thus, YTD gain remains unchanged at 15.1%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

I sold $KNDI for small losses.  I also picked up some $KGJI at $1.32 looking for a bounce. Because I got the dividend from the main account, I’m willing to give this one another chance over here.

KGJI_daily

See how today low bounced off the 89 MA line?  This was why I bought $KGJI for the bounce.

Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.

My 2 cents.

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09-04-2014 Trading Journal

Market traded up first half of the day and then closed underwater to end the day.

SPY_Daily

It is still too early to call this recent minor corrections a change of trend.  As long as price continue to trade above the 15 MA line, the bull trend is still intact.

Meanwhile, a lot of stocks were trading down.  My port is no exception.

$LRAD gave back some more gain.

LRAD_daily

Price now traded near the support of $3.36.  It will be interesting to see if this new support can hold.  Nevertheless, while price took out yesterday low, price is still trading above the 5 MA line as well as the new support.  The recent minor uptrend bar has not been violated yet.  Also notice that the volume on the last four trading days increased on a stair step fashion with today volume significantly lower.  This could mean that more new buyers came in than getting out.

$HYGS also corrected.

HYGS_daily

Since price is still above the 89 MA support line, today correction may be a simple hiccup.

$ORBC finally broke thru the consolidation range but it went the wrong way.

ORBC_daily

Price is now at long-term support.  Let’s see if it can bounce tomorrow.  We are getting close to mid-Sept when the new satellites are supposed to be in operational mode.  Price may climb back if this prove to be the case.

Today, $DMRC and $AMRN saved the day by closing higher to help offset the losses.

Today Gateway Conference sparked some interest in $DMRC with price closing higher.

DMRC_daily

If enough new investors like what they saw today, price may begin a slow climb from here.

Renew hope of a positive FDC outcome might be the reason for $AMRN to bounce back up today.

AMRN_daily

Price bounced directly from the 15 MA line.  When price can bounce from these 5 & 15 MA lines, it usually means the bull trend is very much intact.

Despite positive closes on two stocks, drawdown on two of my largest positions (LRAD and HYGS) were too much to offset. Thus, my port gave back 2.8% with YTD gain at 15.1%.

From my other account:

I bought $KNDI for a bounce.  I’m still holding at today close since the losses are small.  If price doesn’t bounce tomorrow, I may cut losses instead of carrying it over the weekend.

My 2 cents.

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09-03-2014 Trading Journal

Today a tidal wave of cold water splashed across the private fences and wetted practically everyone on the lawn.

SPY_Daily

Thus, the jolly mood was ruined for some while others opened their arms to welcome the sudden cold water shock over their whole body.

Not unlike the party-goers above, I’ve got three turning reds while the other twos enjoyed their green lawns.

$LRAD hit the ground running hard.  Price shot up to the high of $3.88 before being hit by the tidal wave.

LRAD_daily

What we ended up with is a bar with a tall tail on the northside.  I never like this kind of bar for it has the potential to call for a top.  However, this type of bar needs to be confirmed before it can be considered a top.  There has to be lower-low bars following today bar to signify a downward bias.  Until then, the bull trend is still on.  Price can easily trade inside today bar to build another consolidation phase before heading up again.  Let’s see how price trades tomorrow.  While gave back a lot of gain today; $LRAD still managed to keep its head above water despite the tidal wave.

$HYGS also continued to bounce.

HYGS_daily

Giving today situation, its ability to stay green reflected a bullish stance.

Unfortunately, $DMRC, $ORBC, and $AMRN could not handle the cold splash so they all went negative.

Thanks to $LRAD and $HYGS for being in a good mood, my port gained 0.9% with YTD gain at 17.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

Due to tidal wave, I dumped $IBIO for tiny losses.  Still waiting for Health Canada approval for $FITX.

My 2 cents.

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09-02-2014 Trading Journal

The market was trying hard to correct but decided against it.

SPY_Daily

It wasn’t really a down day even though it was down most of the day.

Today, I sold $CPST to take small losses ’cause price took out the low of the last five trading days.

CPST_daily

And also because the overall price trend is down.  I bought originally looking for a bounce but it didn’t happen even after two announcements of new sales; thus I’ve no choice but to sell when price took out the previous lows.

Another motivation for me to sell $CPST is because I really wanted to add to $ORBC.

ORBC_daily

My gut feeling, or should I say intuition, tells me that price is going to bounce soon due to the coming operation of the recent launched satellites in mid-September.  Price were flat for the last three weeks instead of trending down which gave a higher probability of bouncing.  Thus, I added to $ORBC with the proceed from $CPST.

For the day, four out of my five positions were up with one at practically breakeven.

$LRAD finally closed above the resistance!

LRAD_daily

Volume was also much higher than the last five trading days.  This could mean that price has a high probability of staying above the resistance (now support) of $3.36.   Giving the strong upward momentum for the last four weeks, there are a lot of confidence that $LRAD will land a large order among the possible deals I mentioned in my last trading journal.

$HYGS and $DMRC also bounced some today which to me are much better than a down day.

$AMRN was practically neutral even though it was down slightly. There really isn’t much to look at for $AMRN since we are all waiting for the FDA decision.

Thanks to four positions on the upside, my port gained 2.2% with YTD gain at 17%.

Current holdings: (and then there are five…)

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

I bought some $IBIO today to add to the portfolio mix.  Meanwhile, $LRAD continued to advance my port while $FITX remained unmoved while waiting for licensing approval..

My 2 cents.

 

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08-29-2014 Trading Journal

Following thru from yesterday spectacular recovery, market marched higher despite a wobbly beginning.

SPY_Daily

From the daily chart, you would think that the market barely survived the bear pull.  Take a look at the weekly chart below:

SPY_Weekly

Now, you can see the bull has always been in charge.  Another weekly up bar.

Today four of my positions were up with two down.

$LRAD continued on its upward momentum after yesterday recovery as expected.

LRAD_daily

From the daily chart above, you could see that price is now about to break out of an ascending triangle with the long-term resistance of $3.36 as the ceiling.

LRAD_weekly

$LRAD Weekly chart above shows that price has not wavered in its bullish momentum.  Four weekly bar on the up and up.  Fundamentally speaking, there are a lot of explosive revenues growth in the cards (from recent earnings transcript).

  • Responded to an RFI from U.S. Coast Guard R&D Center
  • U.S. Army put out an “updated” RFI for acoustic hailing devices (original RFI came out in 2010).  Expected to see RFP in early 2015.
  • The House has included acoustic hailing devices in the $2 billion budget for NGREA (National Guard Reserve Equipment) funding.
  • Mass Notification: anticipating additional orders over the next couple of months (from August) for certain small cities working with the Japanese rep.
  • Mass Notification: responded to two large RFPs for two large cities in the Middle East.

Any large order from the above will propel $LRAD to the next level.

$HYGS bounced off from the 89 MA line.

HYGS_daily

How many times have we seen prices bounce off from the 79 & 89 MA lines?  They are magical since the bounces have happened almost all the times when prices traded near/at/around the 79 & 89 MA lines.

HYGS_weekly

From the weekly chart above, the downdraft has stalled at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level.  The possibility of reversing back to an uptrend is high from here.

While the daily chart of $CPST did not show much movement, the weekly chart below shows a cautious upward movement.

CPST_weekly

The weekly bar is now trading above the 5 MA line.

On the other hand, $ORBC weekly chart below showed a flat pattern this week.

ORBC_weekly

Although flat, price is still trading above the 5 MA line which is good for developing a base to bounce from.

On the same token, while $AMRN daily chart showed little movement on the last three trading days, the weekly below shows that the bullish upward momentum is still fully intact.

AMRN_weekly

See how the weekly green solid bar moved up from last week doji bar?  Price is very close to breaking out of the $2 resistance.  For those who only see $AMRN’s Vascepa as a “fish oil” pill that is not much different from the over-the-counter fish oil pill, you are missing the big picture by allowing your limited knowledge of the science to dictate your judgement and prejudice.  While the almost pure EPA ingredient in Vascepa may not sound so fancy as compared to the “high” EPA content of the over-the-counter fish oil, the science behind in extracting the pure EPA in Vascepa is in an entirely different order from the science in extracting high EPA in over-the-counter part.

Personally, ever since I’ve started taking Vascepa from over a year ago, my body never feel the need to alert me of my cardio condition. Whereas before I started taking Vascepa, my body had more than multiple occasions alerted me of a possible cardio condition by exhibiting minor pain around my chest and arm.  Could it be the placebo affect?  I like to think it is the Vascepa that actually helps improve my cardio condition.  IMHO, the Japanese Jellis study (that proved pure EPA could reduce cardio-event by 50%) the FDA conveniently ignored was not without its merit.

With Congress hearing requesting the FDA to explain the justification of rescinding $AMRN SPA agreement and the recent studies that people with genetic characteristic of low triglyceride exhibited lower cardio-event, I don’t see how FDA can keep on pounding $AMRN to oblivion in front of the limelight.  All in all, I’m very bullish in $AMRN and is going to hold my position into the FDA decision.

$DMRC continued to struggle to stay relevant.

DMRC_weekly

 

Due to lack of news, the shorts were having an easy time walking this one down.  My position is bleeding but my believe in $DMRC disruptive Digimarc technology has not wavered.  So I’m still holding.

Thanks to gain from $LRAD and $HYGS, my port gained back 2.3% today with YTD gain at 14.8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, AMRN, ORBC, CPST (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

$FITX ended the week higher than the last 12 weeks.

FITX_weekly

While there was a long tail at the upper-end of the weekly bar, it is still bullish to me.  I believe Health Canada will approve the license.

To me, although the number of shares in the float is ridiculously high, $FITX is the only cannabis company that has a group of impressive scientists and board members on board.  In other words, once the cannabis market really takes off with more legalized States in the cards, $FITX has a good chance of making it big.

My 2 cents.

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