What we have here is a spinning top candlestick pattern for the month of February.  Normally, a spinning top candlestick pattern is just like any other candlestick reversal pattern, it simply offers a possible reversal signal. Nothing is guaranteed and it is merely a precaution.

However, when you have a “monthly” spinning top candlestick pattern at the TOP of an uptrend near the walls of two long-term resistance (formed in year 2000 and 2007), you HAVE to take precaution.  You have to acknowledge that there  may be a greater force in play here.  A force that has soundly defeated the bull in year 2000 & 2007.

The month of March is now the key month to watch.  It may dictate the direction for the rest of the year.  A down month in March may confirm the February spinning top candlestick pattern as a bona-fide reversal signal.  In other words, the walls of resistance are too formidable to overcome.

Look at the SPY monthly chart below:

Did you see the tiny spinning top candlestick bar formed in February?

I will be very mindful of the possibility going into March.  Perhaps a little less tolerance  in  giving the trades more times to establish its uptrend.  Come to think of it, I never have much tolerance with my swing trades anyway except for my position trades.  I’ll be keeping an eyes for ETF such as FAZ, SKF, etc.

Just my 2 cents anyway.

Trade Well!

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I’m back in GLUU again after bailing out during the stormy day on Monday.

Take a look at the hourly GLUU chart below:

I’m seeing a potential ascending triangle breakout to the upside.  Two attempts have been made; perhaps, 3rd time the charm?

Stop will the same as my previous ledge @ $2.27.

Just my 2 cents.

Trade Well!

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I’m talking about buying PACB for the 2nd time to see if it will run again.

I bought PACB not too long ago but left a lot on the table after I took profit.

Let’s see if I can make it up from last time and take home more dough this time.

Take a look at the daily PACB chart below

Did you notice the round up from the support at the 89 xma line?  I like the fact that it has taken out yesterday high.

Just my 2 cents.

Trade well!

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Take a look at the bear flag based on SPY hourly chart below:

The bull will need to have a good solid rally tomorrow to stop the bear flag from developing into a full-blown continuation bearish chart pattern by taking out the low of the flag.

Let’s see how tomorrow plays out.

Trade well!

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The bounce was quite firm in the morning until the air started to leak.

Good grief.

Take a look at the SPY hourly chart below:

Did you see how the early morning bounce hit the top of the long-term uptrend line and dropped like a bowling ball from there?  Did you notice the steep of the drop?

It is not very inspiring for a bounce even though Dow Jones is still trading a positive 60+ points.

Look at the daily SPY chart below:

Today bar is trading near the bottom of yesterday bar; again, it is not heart-warming at all.   It looks like your significant other is ready to leave you high and dry…

My cash level is now 52%.

Caution is warranted here.

Just my 2 cents.

Trade well!

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Look at that BIG RED BAR slicing thru the low of the last 20 days with high volume to boost.

With a bloody falling off the cliff  kind of momentum, I can only say tomorrow is not a pretty sight if there is not a bounce to be seen.  However, there are supports from the previous three walls SPY has broken through around the $146 – $148 area.

If there is no bounce tomorrow, I’ll continue to cut out swing positions to reduce loss.

There is no reason to have a majority of your money ties up in stock if the market is showing a violent turn.

I’m currently 47% cash and will raise it to 60% if the knife continues to fall.

Remember, the more cash you have, the more stocks you can buy back cheap when market starts to turn.

Just my 2 cents.

Trade well!

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What?  $33?

No way!?

Wasn’t it trading at around $50 last week?

Wouldn’t that be a $17 drop instead of $6 drop this morning for missing earning expectation?

I was confused!  I bet you were too!

Yeah, I’m talking about DDD.

3-2 split at the day of earning report?!?

Hello?

Anyway, as bad as this decision was, I thought I was giving an opportunity to buy back some DDD on the cheap!

After coming to my sense, I bought starter position on DDD under $31 with stop below intra-day low of $30.28.

When an opportunity comes for a chance to catch a falling knife, I’ve got to take it!

Remember, clap your hand together (parallel to the face of the blade) to catch the falling knife; otherwise, you will lose your fingers!

This is a high risk trade so I know I may need a bandage later.

Trade well!

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GLUU looks like it is setting up for a mighty bounce.

Ok, we may have a catalyst giving this news here- Nevada legalizes first interstate online poker.

Take a look at the hourly GLUU chart below:

Did you see how the price action break out of the downward trend-line and then consolidated into a ledge?  The way it is looking now, price action wants to go up.  If it takes out the ledge high of $2.38, I will add more.  If it takes out the low of the ledge at $2.27, I will cut my loss and move on.

I particularly like the big ass up bar right before the ledge.  Sometimes, after a spike like this with higher than average volume; it may be a start of a runner if the catalyst is substantial enough; on the other hand, it could be one of those “spike and ledge sell pattern” within a bearish trend.  This is why it is important to see which side of the ledge price action is going to take out next week.

Take a look at the daily GLUU chart below:

Did you see how it was bouncing… bounce once on mid-Nov 2012; bounce again on early Feb 2013;  the 3rd bounce came off from a higher ground and stayed within the “upward” Andrew Fork lower line.  In other words, I see a good risk/reward trade here as long as I use the ledge on the hourly chart as my guidance for protective stop.

Btw, I didn’t get into this trade until the last 15 minutes on Friday when I saw a spike up.  This last minutes spike up reflected the price action upward bias inside the ledge; that was why I bought in my starter position.  If it had spiked downward instead, I would have passed and skipped the trade.

Trade well!

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I sure hope not!

Take a look at the SPY daily chart below.

Did you see that wall around $151.50?

Some will say this wall is nothing.  A line drawn from a single pivot high with only one down bar from each side, what kind of wall is that?

Exactly my point!

If $SPY cannot overcome this so-called dime store wall by end-of-day, we have got a serious problem.  This rally may be a dead cat bounce after all.

Well, the day is not over yet.  Let’s wait and see…

Despite a 100 points rally, I feel price action is meandering around all day…

Currently long LRAD, AMRN, USU, CCJ SZYM, URA, DCTH, DNN, and 36% cash.

Trade well!

EDIT: After hour update

Well, I’m glad to see SPY has closed strong today.  It is way above the dime-store wall! 🙂  Nah, today is not a dead cat bounce.  We may see higher price action next week.

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SKF has not been getting any respect for quite awhile now; but the situation may have changed.

Take a look at the hourly SKF chart below:Did you see the potential breakout happening here?  It has already taken out last Friday high and is working on taking out last Thursday high.

Take a look at the daily SKF chart below:Did you see how today green bar pierce the downward trendline?  Did you also see the price/momentum divergence below the chart?

I think it is high time we pay some respect to SKF.

You see, SKF doesn’t have to be your enemy, you can be a friend with it.  All you need to do is to go along with the flow of SKF and it will be your best friend ever!

Without a doubt, I’m long on SKF since today.

Oh yeah, SKF is buying drink today. (grin)

Trade well!

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