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04-09-2014 Trading Journal

Market had another strong bounce today.

SPY_Daily

However, the strong bounce only became evidence in the latter half of the day. Price is now near the top range of the previous consolidation range.

In the morning after the open, although price was higher, it wasn’t very convincing.  As a result, I sold my swing trade positions $GWPH to lock in profit; sold $CARA with very small gain, closed out $NUGT with a small gain (gave back a lot of gain from yesterday) due to lower open.

I also bought a starter position on $TZA and $FAZ to see if the market would drop later in the day.

Nope.

Due to my not paying close attention during the day, I had to close out my $TZA and $FAZ at a larger losses than I had planned for. Regardless, when I found out $TZA and $FAZ had fallen hard, I sold for losses without hesitation.  If I made a mistake of not paying attention, I should not try to compound the mistake by “wishing” for a bounce to reduce my losses.  Sell and move on.  Good thing I did ’cause the market rallied hard to the close which would have costed me more losses if I hadn’t sold.

With the market rallying hard, I bought back $NUGT looking for more bounce in the week.

NUGT_daily

From the look of the chart, $NUGT looks good for a continuing rally.

$SVA looks good for a bounce off the 79 & 89 MA lines so I bought back some position.

sva_daily

Love that green solid bar that used the 79 & 89 MA lines at the launching pad. I will add more if price takes out today high tomorrow.

Next, I added more $SEED.

seed_daily

$SEED mirrored $SVA on the bounce off the 79 & 89 MA lines.  I’ve been watching $SEED closely ’cause I don’t want to miss any sudden rally due to China’s decision on the GM seeds offered by $SEED.  An approval will pop this one up like a rocket launch in a high school science project.  But in a general market correction, everything goes down regardless of how compelling the story is; thus my being in and out for safety reason. Now, let’s see if this one can climb back up to $3.00.

I missed out on the continuing rally of $GWPH after I sold for smaller profit in the morning.  $GWPH rallied hard after I sold.. oh well, playing safe had its cost; but it definitely worth it and I’ll do it again if I feel/sense a market collapse in the horizon..

Despite my larger than planned losses on $TZA and $FAZ, my port bounced back today thanks to rallies from $LRAD and $SEED.

Current holdings:

LRAD, SVBL, SEED, NUGT, SVA and 52% cash.  Despite the waterfall market last week and this Monday, I am able to maintain the 12% gain for the year.

From the other account:

$MCIG continued to rally hard and barely took out the resistance level at $0.80xx.

MCIG_daily

If you look at the daily chart closely, you can see the head and shoulder pattern.  Both the left and right shoulder have a $0.80xx price level which prove to be a difficult resistance to break thru.  As a result, I sold my position to lock in gain,(or should I say ‘recover my earlier losses plus some’).

$FITX was getting hit today due to an article regarding the issue of a “barn” size.  Apparently, someone at the city council had decided the size of the barn doesn’t fit the definition.  To me, it is just political maneuver trying to get $FITX to pay a higher taxes to the city.  Hey, the way I look at it, it is a non-issue and price will bounce back once $FITX works it out with the city council.  Still holding long and strong.

My 2 cents.

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04-07-2014 Trading Journal

The market continued on downward from the starting gate, with the exception of a small bounce inside the hour after the open, price followed the waterfall pattern all the way to the close.

SPY_Daily

$SPY is now trading near the heavy supports (79 & 89 MA lines, lower range of consolidation area–> near the previous two pivot lows in 3/14 and 3/27 respectively).

Due to that bounce that failed near the close, I decided to close my $TZA and $FAZ to lock in the gain.

Why?

At first, I thought I would hold for tomorrow; but then I noticed the falling prices for many of the momo stocks had been “decelerated”.  In other words, while they were still down for the day, the percentage down was less than that of last week.  Also, $TZA and $FAZ are not known to be trending vehicle.  From my history of trading, I gave back gain in $TZA for holding too long more than I could count.  They had a tendency to gap down against me if I over-stayed the position.  Thus, taking this lesson, I decided to take the money and run to break the old pattern.

If market continues to fall tomorrow, I can always buy $TZA back…

How did I start my day?

Let’s see, I added to $FAZ after the open to flow with the upward momentum.  I did not want to add to $TZA since I already had a large position.  Adding more would be over-weighting my port that a sudden rally on the DOW would put my port in a precarious position.

Next, I bought $NUGT since the chart looked good for a bounce.

NUGT_daily

Price was trading above the 5 MA line and it gave me the confidence to buy a starter position. If it drops below the 5 MA line tomorrow, I’ll be out.  If it bounces higher, I’ll add more.

As mentioned above, by day end, I closed both $TZA and $FAZ to lock in gain.

Because both $LRAD and $SVBL did not drop much, the gains on both $TZA and $FAZ more than offset the losses that I ended up with a small gain in my port.

Current holdings:

LRAD, SVBL, NUGT and 66% cash.

From my other account:

$MCIG was struggling with the support @ $0.60 so I put a stop just below 0.60 and was stopped out in no time.  Price proceeded to waterfall all the way to $0.50 and consolidated there for about half-an-hour.  Seeing that price did not go any further down (come on now, at $0.50, $MCIG was down 20%, so I saw little risk for price to go any further down); thus I started buying some of my shares back.  I paid b/w $0.50 and $0.535 to buy back about 70% of my shares.  I used the 30% to add more $FITX when it was trading at low $0.73.

MCIG_daily

As you can see on the $MCIG chart above, price showed a very nice hammer candlestick pattern.  Did you see the tail coming close to the 89 MA line. If price takes out the high of today hammer candlestick, $MCIG may bounce from here.

$FITX also recovered nicely from the day sell-off.

FITX_daily

Did you see how the Bollinger band began to form a narrow range around the consolidation area?  Any significant price movement that closes either above or below the Bollinger band will be big alert to future price trend.  I like to think that price will close above the Bollinger band simply because I believe $FITX will complete the facility with such high standard that Health Canada will simply approve the license.

My 2 cents.

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Wakening of the Golden $NUGT

Here we go again, my x number of times to catch the bottom of $NUGT.  I had a good run back in August and a few attempts afterward that didn’t quite work out.  Now I’m trying again for the $100 roll by getting back in yesterday.

Today is a good sign that $NUGT may be getting ready to run hard.   With a strong gap-up and a persistent momentum that hasn’t shown any weariness yet, the odd of $100 roll is increasing.

Take a look at the daily chart:

NUGT_daily

The 5 SMA has finally crossed over the 15 SMA today and a solid green bar even after the gap-up.  I like to see price action takes out the upper Bollinger band to show proof of strength.  There are two overhead resistances however- the 79 SMA and the 89 XMA.  In due time, both of these resistances may be turning up in direction as well.  If that is the case, the resistances may be weakened for $NUGT to pierce thru.

Now take a look at the hourly chart:

NUGT_hourly

Did you see the cup and handle breakout?  Statistically speaking, I’ve made more money trading cup & handle breakout than other methods.  This strong break out bode well for $NUGT today.

My 2 cents.

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Shifting with the wind- from the gale of $NUGT to the gust of $INO

It was quite a strange morning.  The leaves were wavering a little harder, the fallen leaf flew a little further out, and most important of all, my eyes were bombarded by flying tiny debris such that I had to squint to see what kind of wind was blowing my way…

Being in a twilight state of consciousness, the winds formed into the shape of an animal… and the horns looked familiar… OMG! they were bull’s horns.  The image was like a slow motion replay of a bull stampede scene  you saw in Lone Ranger movie.  Because they were winds, the bulls ran right through me as if I was merely a shadow of the nearby tree.  From my vantage point, I could see the burned mark on one of the bull.  It was branded at $INO.

The gust of $INO was getting ready to stampede!  I immediately checked the price.  It was printing over $1.30 by the time I checked the screen.  I could sense this move had a malevolent tone and the desperation in the price action was quite palpable.  Without hesitation, I clicked on the buy button again, again, again, and again.  The fills were completed in a stair-step fashion with each fills higher than the others.

Then I wait.

Price action did not falter.  Not only did price action take out the yesterday high, it took out $1.50 resistance.  And for that, I added more.

By day end, the gust of $INO has taken my position to $1.68.

The interesting part about my hitching the gust of $INO today was that I was just getting off the gale of $NUGT.  $NUGT’s gale had taken me for a ride from the bottom of the valley to the top of mountain where I could see the $100 roll dangling outside my reach.  There were magic involved for I had started off at low $5.xx at the beginning of the ride.  Out of nowhere, the ETF master flipped the wand and I was seeing $98.xx!  As I reached out to the $100 roll, the gale suddenly dissolved into a tepid breeze and I was left standing at $89.6x.  So much for the $100 roll.

Without missing a step, I’m now riding the gust of $INO.  How far can I ride this gust?  Will it even head in the same direction tomorrow?  I sure do hope so.  I could feel the energy.  I could hear the crying.  I believed they were the cry of the shorts being squeezed.

Holy Cow!  The Gust of $INO might just continue to fly straight ahead on the back of the short-squeezed runaway…  YEOWWWWEEE! The pain!  The pain!” uttered the shorts…

My 2 cents…

 

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$NUGT Post-split Revisit

As The Fly used to say, “going for the $100 roll…”

Well, that is what I like to say for $NUGT as well.  After the 1 for 10 reverse split, price action continues to look bullish.

Instead of reading $9.78 on the price chart, now I’m reading $97.84.  Whoa!  It is going for $100!

I guess there is a nice sound to it.  So, I’ll have the ETF master to thank for the reverse split.

Heeeeerrrrrrreeeeeeee comes $1 0 0!

Ok, kidding asides, take a look at the daily chart below:

NUGT_daily

Today green bar is a good sign after two days of correction.  Next resistance is high of two days ago at $103.90.  I say price can take that out before the week is over.  Next target after that is $124.20.

Below is the 5m chart:

nugt_5m

Isn’t it a beauty to see a persistent intra-day bullish trend?

Coming into the morning, I only had a small starter position, after seeing price action took off to the upside after open, I bought back in full-size looking for the $100 roll…

Good luck if you are already in $NUGT.

My 2 cents.

 

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To sit, or not to sit–that is the question for gold dust trade

$NUGT has been on a tear since I began buying on Aug 7th.  Don’t believe me?  I had it time-stamped on twitter…

Twitter_NUGT

With only one day of minor correction to fill the gap on Aug 13th, price continued to march on.  While I had proclaimed I would “try” to sit on this position, the trading bug in me had me taking profit and jumping back in a couple of times since the blast-off.

As luck would have it, after taking profit yesterday at the $8.2x level with a bit of concern that I might have gotten out too soon, $NUGT opened lower and then bounced!  Without hesitation, I immediately jumped right back in to buy $NUGT at the low $8.xx.  And when the morning retracement brought the price back down to low $8 again, I added a bit more to take advantage of the retracement.  I would call today fortune of my ability to jump back in below my exit price yesterday as “lucky” intuition.

As of now, $NUGT price has broken out of the 7/23 high as I had suggested on my Aug 9th post,  Can $NUGT continue to go up from here?

I like to say so.  With the market on a correction mode, flight to safety in gold may be the next favorite trading position.

Take a look at the daily chart below:

NUGT_daily

As I began typing this post, $NUGT was still trading around the previous high of $8.57; now I could see price action continues to accelerate to the upside.  My next target for $NUGT is $12.42 (or $124.20 after 1 for 10 reverse-split).

Perhaps, I shall “sit” a little tighter now with the reverse split coming on line soon.  The split may or may not drive the price even higher.

My 2 cents.

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Finally, do we have a bottom for $NUGT?

Here is the fundamental catalyst for yesterday 25% jump on price action for $NUGT:

From Dow Jones Newswires’ Matt Day and Laura Clarke:

Data released on Thursday showed Chinese exports and imports both grew at a faster-than-expected pace in July, a sign that the second-largest economy was steadying after a first-half slowdown.

In response, the cost of physical gold on China’s benchmark exchange rose another $4 an ounce to $5 an ounce above London’s global benchmark, traders with TD Securities said, potentially a sign of increased demand there. China is the No. 2 gold consumer, and stronger growth can lift demand for gold.

The data gave “hope to those gold bugs who hope that Chinese buying will lead [prices] back to the heady heights of 2011,” said David Govett, head of precious metals with Marex Spectron. Futures hit record highs above $1,900 an ounce in September 2011.

Now, take a look at the daily chart below:

NUGT_daily

Did you see the previous big green bar on 6/28 and the one from yesterday?  Yesterday big green bar has a higher low than the one on 6/28.

So?

Well, after the big green bar on 6/28, price began to climb to the high of $8.57 on 7/23 before correcting; this time, I like to see it breakout of that $8.57 high.

Below is the weekly chart:

NUGT_weekly

Did you see the identical “T” shape weekly bar for the week ended of 6/28 and the one ending this week?

Does it look like it is going to bounce right out of the gate?

Fortunately, I bought some starter position two days ago and added more yesterday after the open.  I may add more if market open higher in the morning.  I like to see that price will zigzag all the way back to the former high.  This will allow me to hold on to my position for a lot longer.  I just need to learn how to “sit” on this position…

My 2 cents.

 

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Zen sees bullish Harami continuation pattern for golden $NUGT

Usually, a bullish Harami happens at the bottom of the trend to signify a bullish reversal.  In this case, a breakout of the Friday inside bar to the upside that takes out the previous high two trading days ago reflects a bullish continuation pattern.  Since it has taken out the inside bar from Friday, I will call the candlestick pattern “the bullish Harami continuation pattern”.   Don’t bother to google it; there is no such thing.  I just make it up.  Whatever works for me, eh? (grin).

Take a look at the daily chart below.  I believe gold minings and gold is heading up.

NUGT_daily

I like to see price action takes out the recent pivot high at $13.54 established in May 9th.

Yes, I bought back $NUGT and $ABX this morning.

My 2 cents.

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Zen hunts $NUGT for nugget

I still think the bullish engulfment bar we’ve seen on May 20 is the tell-tale sign of a bottom.  Statistically speaking, if the bullish engulfment has not been debunked by price action making new low after a week, the probability of a bottom is increasing.

Take a look at the chart below:

NUGT_daily

I like to see price action taking out $10 resistance soon to begin the rally back up.

I bought starter positions with stop below yesterday low.

My 2 cents.

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Zen chews $NUGT for breakfast

After the morning gap on $NUGT, the wind has spoken.  After a bullish engulfment, we got an inside bar or harami.  Today, a gap up that took out the high of the inside bar is a confirmed bullish stance.  Not only that, $NUGT also took out the previous high of two days ago.  Based on these past few days of price action, I think the probability of gold finding a bottom is getting stronger and stronger.

Of course, I bought back my $NUGT despite the gap up.  Sometimes, I’ve to go with the flow.

Below is the 15 min. chart of $NUGT.  Isn’t it a beauty?

NUGT_15m

My 2 cents.

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