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03-07-2014 Trading Journal

The market had a wild swing during the day but closed the day neutral.

SPY_Daily

While it was a red bar, the overall trend is still up.  Notice that since beginning of February, there was only two significant corrections, 02/19 and 03/03.  This can only mean that we are in a kick-ass bullish trend or we are due for another small correction soon.

And this is the basis of my concern that I no longer feel the conviction to hold on to my $KNDI shares.  A collection of recent events had somehow changed my strong conviction on $KNDI into a cautious “going for a quick buck” speculation.

What recent events?

Remember that time I bought $XONE in December @ low $5x.xx and rode it all the way to high of $70.xx+ in mid-January and then watched a whole chunk of my unrealized gain evaporated into thin air in the name of “bullish conviction”?  This experience taught me that I must temper my conviction with a dose of short-term reality. This lesson was further confirmed by my most recent gave-back of my medium size unrealized gain on $CERS going into earning day.

Reaching my milestone target is another event that put me into cautious mode.  I do not want to fall below this milestone high so early in the game after just reaching it.  Selling out my largest position (30%+ of my port) to lock in gain was the only way to ensure that my milestone high would not be out-of-sight if a correction hit $KNDI b/w now and March 17th reporting day.

Since $KNDI had climbed so fast and is making new high approaching the March 17th reporting day, I’m becoming more leery of holding such a huge amount of unrealized gain gambling on the earning outcome.  In other words, if I’m going into this earning date with my unrealized gain on the table, I’m practically betting this whole $KNDI pot (principle and unrealized gain) on the earnings result.  So  I asked myself if I am ready to push all my $KNDI chip in the center of the table?

No.

The possible “island top” was all I need to find an excuse to sell $KNDI to lock in profit last Tuesday 03/04.

In an nutshell, I lost my “nerve” on $KNDI.

But that is just me.  $KNDI could surprise and continue to move much higher and those who have the gut to bet big will surely be rewarded for their risk-taking.  I believe I was rewarded very well for my gut and conviction of buying at the low $5 and rode it all the way to $18.xx since the latter half of 2013 with a double-down in late December after Geely’s announcement on the EV version of the London’s black taxi.

For now, $KNDI is just another possible speculative bet that warrants a “guerrilla” type of trading- in and out with small to medium size position for a quick swing trade.  With more update fundamental news, I may again become a longer-term holder.  One thing I learn is that today stock market environment requires us to combine nimbleness and a long-term outlook at the same time.  Think of a jaguar following the herd jumping in and out of the herd for the kill but still follow the herd for the next possible kill.

I actually went in with some starter position on $KNDI today but chickened out at breakeven when I realized I didn’t want to hold the position over the weekend.

Both $CARA and $LRAD were taking hit today so my port suffered another small setback.

Since $CARA position was only 1/3 of my original $KNDI size, My conviction of its disruptive pain-killer technology can handle the drawdown.

CARA_daily

So far, all I’m seeing is some normal price correction.  Still holding my shares long and strong despite taking heat.

$SEED was practically neutral which was good enough for me.

seed_daily

Notice that price is still above the support area. Still holding long and strong.

$KGJI bounced slightly today.

KGJI_daily

Perhaps, next week price will take out the $1.85 resistance once and for all?

$MZOR performed well today coming back from a bearish attack to close only slightly down.

MZOR_daily

Price is still trading in the upper-range of the consolidation.

$LRAD was still stuck in its own consolidation range.

LRAD_daily

Today was another set back but I like to see price bounce tomorrow to stay inside the recent consolidation area.

Due to $LRAD and $CARA correction today, my port was down another notch but overall is still above milestone high.

Current holdings:

LRAD, SEED, MZOR, CARA, KGJI and 28% cash.

From my other account:

$FITX broke thru the resistance today.

FITX_daily

Although it fell back from the high of the day, it still closed above the previous resistance which has now become support.

$FITX announced that it acquired Hemp Technologies Ltd.  I believe that $FITX is laying on the correct brick to build the company up. To me, it makes perfect sense.  After harvesting the 1.3 million pounds of medical cannabis, those non-bud (leaves and stems) can be used for industrial hemp.  Nothing go to waste.  What perfect synergy!

Still holding long and strong.

My 2 cents.

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03-06-2014 Trading Journal

Market was up slightly today and the general direction is still up.

SPY_daily

Notice that volume was lower than average for the last two days.  Can price continues to float upward from here?  We will see.

I added to $KNDI due to a strong opening; but when price started struggling to stay within the opening range, I decided to put a stop below the range.  I remember reading that some outfit projected a target of $20.xx; so I asked myself, “we are at the target, so who else is buying this up?”  Apparently no one since I got stopped out when price fell thru the lower opening range.  Luckily I still had some profit from yesterday buy that despite my adding this morning, I came out with a small profit.  Although I got out of my large position two days too earlier; I really can’t complain about the profit I was able to capture.  Stock speculation is risky and no one can ever get out at the top or buy at the low.  We just need to stay true to our decisions without second-guessing ourselves because hindsight gives a different picture than the one we’ve envisioned.

$SEED took a tumble at the open when there were no news to hold yesterday gain.  I did not sell ’cause my original objective of seeing thru the China’s decision on approval of the GM seeds has not changed.

seed_daily

While price came back down, it still stayed above the support (blue line). The good news is that $3 resistance had been broken, so I don’t see it as a hard resistance anymore.  Let’s see if there is a bounce tomorrow.

I sold $SVA today ’cause price fell thru yesterday low.

SVA_daily

When I loaded up to swing for the fence, I expected price to behave upward with strong momentum.  And when price went the other way, I had no choice but to “get out of Dodge” before losses magnified to an unbearable point.

$MZOR bounced a bit today so I’m still holding.

mzor_daily

Price is still at the upper range of the consolidation area so I’m not worried at this point.

$CARA corrected today but I decided not to sell any shares ’cause I believe this new pain-killer can improve pain-management drastically due to the lack of side-effects the opiate drug has.  So, I’m holding this for a possible buy-out from big pharmaceutical company or positive phase 3 result.

cara_daily

See how price closed above the 5 MA line?  Hopefully, it is finding support here.

Both $KGJI and $LRAD were practically neutral for the day.

Due to correction of $SEED, $SVA, and $CARA, my port gave back a chunk of gain from yesterday.  However, my port is still above my milestone level.

Current holdings:

LRAD, SEED, MZOR, CARA, KGJI and 28% cash.

From my other account:

$FITX continued to bounce back upward.

fitx_daily

We may be seeing a V-shape bounce to take out the resistance @ $0.115 level.  As $FITX continues to show progress on the construction of the facility, price will continue to climb higher.

My 2 cents.

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03-04-2014 Trading Journal

Market staged a spectacular rally after a gap-up.

SPY_daily

Look at the spike up!

$KNDI also followed with its own spike-up as well.

kndi_daily

However, I’m spooked by the narrow range doji formation at the top. Although it has not been confirmed to be one, the doji at the top reminds me of the island top reversal pattern.   Thus, despite my better judgement, I made the difficult decision to sell all my $KNDI shares to lock in profit even though I like this one for long-term.

Another main reason I wanted to lock in profit today is because my port has finally reached a milestone in term of a specific target I’ve dreamt of achieving.  In a manner of speaking, I’ve broken my own “sound barrier” record.  As such, I like to see this new milestone frozen for a few days by locking in my biggest gain so that any temporary correction of $KNDI will not drop my port back below today high.

$MZOR was up slightly but I added some to round up my investment size.

mzor_daily

Price is now banging against the top range of the consolidation.  Let’s see if it can breakout to the upside this week.

$CARA was also up today and it was fighting to stay above $22 all day but failed at the end.

cara_daily

At first, I sold some to lock in profit.  But the more I think of its potential as a pain-killer drug, the more I want to stay in with my trading shares; thus I bought back the shares I sold in the morning plus some before market closed.  Let’s see if this one can continue upward this week.

The rest of my positions provided minimum impact on my port.  Thus, today $KNDI, once again, took my port to a whole new level.  I’m sure I may regret getting out today but I need a rest to enjoy the view for a moment.

Current holdings:

LRAD, MZOR, CARA, SEED, KGJI, SVA and 32% cash.

From my other account:

$FITX fell off the cliff and even I found it disturbing for a moment.  Thanks goodness price bounced back up eventually.

fitx_daily

See how price bounced off the 79 MA line?  Magical!  With such high volume to back up the bounce, the odd of continuing upward is high.

My 2 cents.

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02-28-2014 Trading Journal

The SPY took a tumble after reaching new high but then bounced back to close higher for the week.

SPY_Daily

From the chart, it all looks good.  Today was a pause day with a bias to the upside.

$KNDI took out the $17 resistance and made new high.

KNDI_daily

Although price closed below $17, it opened the door for further $17.xx.  In other words, The resistance was one layer weakened.

Regardless, $KNDI closed strong for the week.

KNDI_daily

See how high the volume was for the week?  While some may focus on how many cars $KNDI might have sold so far, I don’t think this is what drive the price up, I think it is the “potential” of multiple cities adoption of $KNDI car-sharing (vending machine style) programs that will drive the price.  Come March earnings, I believe people will look for the clue on number of cities signing on in the program.   Just take a look at some of the biotech such as $CLDX and $ISIS, look at their market cap compared to the revenues.

$LRAD looked good so far.

LRAD_daily

Despite a rough day fighting off sellers, it ended the day neutral.  Now, $LRAD just needs to take out the resistance @ $2.24 to move higher.

$MZOR closed higher a bit but did took out the upper range of the consolidation during the day.

MZOR_daily

I believe $MZOR will continue to climb from here since the recent earnings result was all good on the revenues increase.  I see more and more surgeons and hospitals adopting this robotic device to provide better efficiency and accuracy in spinal and brain surgery.

$SEED bounced higher but gave back all gain before closing.

seed_daily

The good news is that price still stays above support for now.  I believe traders and investors alike will buy the support for the next leg up.

$SVA was a bit disappointing ’cause price closed negative after breaking out of the consolidating range.

sva_daily

Nevertheless, price is now settling right on the convergence of the 5 and 15 MA lines.  Sometimes, this is a good support here.  Let’s see if price will bounce next week.

$KGJI continued to head south below resistance.

KGJI_daily

Although I’m taking heat, it was small heat.  But still, it was money tied up unproductively.  It hasn’t really gone anywhere even when $NUGT went higher.  I guess I just have to wait for the next $KGJI earnings report to see any big move here- up or down.  I’m voting for up, of course.

Due to a mixed batch of ups and downs on my six stocks in my port, I ended up with a neutral day.  But my port had a strong week that ended in a new high.

Current holdings:

KNDI, LRAD, MZOR, SEED, KGJI, SVA and 5% cash.

From my other account:

$FITX collapse after breaking down below $0.08 that caused panic selling.

FITX_daily

My only thought at that instant was “why didn’t I wait a few more days before adding?”.

See how the daily bar closed with a hammer candlestick?  This can mean a “possible” bottom.  But price needs to close above today high next week to confirm the bottom.

Oh well, by sticking to my discipline of not averaging down, I stayed put.  When I said I was done buying yesterday it meant that I was done scaling in.  Anything purchase after that against a downdraft is considered averaging down.  Thus, I did not buy more today.  Still long and strong and I believe the facility will be completed and the permit will be granted by Health Canada.  Yeap, that is my conviction, right or wrong.

My 2 cents.

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