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02-26-2014 Trading Journal

Why do I get a feeling that today is a groundhog day?  The SPY and $KNDI were doing almost the same thing as yesterday.

SPY_Daily

As the daily chart reflected, $SPY did another yesterday with a neutral day.

Now look at $KNDI.

KNDI_daily

Another long-tail doji that mimicked yesterday bar. Again, the chart is still bullish.  Perhaps, third time is a charm tomorrow?

$CERS, of course, collapsed after open.

CERS_daily

I pretty much sold all my shares not long after open while I still had a small profit to lock in.  But I gave back a huge chunk of unrealized gain.  I sold ’cause I didn’t want to deal with the after-shock of the collapse.  Based on the earning transcript, look like we won’t hear from FDA until the 2nd half of this year.  That is another four months to go.  Thus, I’m going to move on to something else in the meantime.

With the available cash from sales of $CERS, I added to $MZOR, bought $SVA, $ATOS, and $APRI.

I bought $ATOS looking for the bounce;

atos_daily

and $APRI looking for a breakout against resistance.

APRI_daily.

Both fell backward before close.  Let’s see how they go tomorrow.

Because $KNDI fell back down to neutral zone after a strong morning rally, my port was pushed back one step by the fall of $CERS.

Small rallies from $KNDI, $SEED, $MZOR, and $KGJI helped cushioned the $CERS loss a bit.

I almost forgot, I sold $HALO ’cause price broke below yesterday low.  Since $HALO is another Baker Brother’s pick ($CERS too), I felt that the fall of $CERS may eventually affect $HALO as well.  This logic didn’t make sense but I went along with it anyway.

Current holdings:

KNDI, LRAD, SEED, MZOR, KGJI, SVA, APRI, ATOS and 4% cash.

From my other account:

I added some more $FITX to round up my position size.  I’m done buying.  Now I’ll just wait and see.FITX_daily

As you can see on the chart, $FITX closed near the support.   Let’s see if this can bounce tomorrow.

My 2 cents.

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02-25-2014 Trading Journal

The market took a break today. It didn’t move much.

SPY_Daily

From the chart above, you could see that price is still above the recent consolidation range; thus the bias is still on the upside.

$KNDI had a wild day today.  It started off going under water and then price jumped up high in the air, pause for a scenic view at the top, and then descended back into the ground in an accelerating manner.

KNDI_daily

Nevertheless, price still closed above $15.xx as well as being above support from previous high.  While the long-tail doji could signify a temporary top, it is not a top until it is confirmed.  The next few days will determine if price can still bounce from here.

$CERS finally closed above the resistance.

CERS_daily

But this might be short-lived since they missed revenues projection and price already dropped 90 cents on the after-hour market.  I’ll be curious to see if price will bounce back in anticipation of the FDA approval.

Since $KNDI dropped back down to neutral for the day by market close and the rest of my positions were in small change mode, my port was pretty much neutral as well.

Current holdings:

KNDI, LRAD, CERS, SEED, KGJI, HALO, MZOR (fully speculated)

From my other account:

$FITX continued to correct and I continued to add more to scale-in my position.

FITX_daily

See how price bounced back to close at the 15 MA line as well at the uptrend line?  I’m still bullish despite recent correction.

My 2 cents.

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02-24-2014 Trading Journal

The market rallied hard during day but gave back some before close.  Somehow, the resistance was quite formidable for the SPY to crack.

SPY_Daily

Notice that price closed right on the resistance.

$KNDI, again, brought home the big fat bacon today.

KNDI_daily

Price broke out to the upside convincingly with larger than normal volume.  Not only that, it closed above the previous high of $15.39.  What more can I say?  I’m not surprised at all for I know it is a matter of time.  Still holding all my shares long and strong.

Next, $CERS continued to move higher.

CERS_daily

Price is now getting ready to take out $8 soon; but first, it needs to close above the current resistance of $7.85.

$SEED made another attempt to take out the resistance of $2.37 and failed once again.

seed_daily

However, price seems to stay well above the 15 MA line.  I’m sure a few more attempts and the resistance would give way.

$HALO continued to bounce higher.

Halo_daily

I like the slow steady climb that was reflected on the chart.

$LRAD and $KGJI also moved higher.  The only one stock in my port that didn’t go higher is $MZOR.

With $KNDI leading the charge, my port has made new historical high today.

Current holdings:

KNDI, LRAD, CERS, SEED, KGJI, MZOR, HALO (fully speculated)

From my other account:

I was disappointed to see $FITX sold off after the gap-up.

FITX_daily

With so many people who bought below $0.05; profit-taking was to be expected.  Despite the down day, I added a bit more today.  I think the key point right now is that Cen Biotech stays on course to complete the facility on time to get the permit to start growing and selling.  Price volatility is to be expected b/w now and completion of facility.  I intend to hold this one thru the volatility.

My 2 cents.

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02-18-2014 Trading Journal

Market was basically neutral today.   It did not go anywhere except to pause.  Pause is good.  Like any moving bio-mind, it needs to take a pause to rest.  Yes, the market is a bio-mind since it is made up of millions of mind.

My port(s), on the other hand, were having a Great Day!

First thing first, I sold all of $APRI (for non-performance) and bought $MZOR.  I like to see $MZOR as the next $ISRG.  I may hold this one for long-term and make it part of the $LRAD, $KNDI, $KGJI team.

MZOR_weekly

The weekly chart above pretty much showed a strong upward trend.  I don’t think it will retrace that much from here; thus my buying $MZOR today just to get on board. .

$KNDI had a strong and healthy gain today.

KNDI_daily

Notice that price is now bouncing off the 5 MA line which was a good sign.

$CERS continued onward without giving back gain for the last two weeks.

CERS_daily

Notice how price marched upward since early February without giving back gain.  This is a strong stock ready to pop on good news.

$LRAD also moved higher today.

LRAD_daily

I’m not crazy about the doji bar today but it may not mean a top yet.  Confirmation is needed before today doji bar is considered a temporary top.

Today, my top three positions, $KNDI, $LRAD, $CERS all carried my port another notch higher despite some minor corrections on others.  I’m especially disappointed with $TINY performance today.  I’ll need to re-evaluate this position tomorrow.

Current holdings:

KNDI, LRAD, CERS, SEED, KGJI, HALO, TINY, MZOR (full speculated).

Now, to my other account…

What’s a Fantastic day for me!

I bought $XTRM after researching this stock over the long weekend.

XTRM_5m

As luck would have it, news from AccessWire brought awareness to this stock and the momentum could not be stopped.  The main reason I like this stock is because of the industrial hemp (more so than the medical cannabis) which is being legalized in the Federal level by Obama signing off the $1 trillion Farm Bill.   The other main attraction of $XTRM is its low float status ($55.92 million) for a pennystock and its being a super micro-cap ($8.15 million) as of today close. Correction: $XTRM actually has about 717 million shares outstanding.

Granted that this company is a newby coming out of nowhere and thus carries the stigma of being a possible pie-in-the-sky stock.  However, the alluring part is $XTRM purchase of 40,000 acres of land in California that will allow it to grow the industrial hemp as well as medical cannabis (I believe $XTRM will have to wait until the Federal law legalizes cannabis first; otherwise, it will be too risky to operate when cannabis is still included in Federal Schedule 1 dangerous drug list.)

For a micro-cap stock like $XTRM, I believe the industrial hemp business alone will pop this one up big time.

XTRM_daily

Look at the daily chart above.  Even though I bought it at a higher open, I still ended with a 50%+ increase on my position. Wow!

$FITX news today is nothing new to me since I already figured this one out when they announced the production facility that can produce 1.3 million lbs annually.  That was the reason I kept buying when it was correcting last week.

FITX_daily

I like to see price takes out the resistance at $0.1149 established last week.  $FITX offered an open house next Saturday which I thought was a good idea.  This should put any doubting Thomas to bed as to rather this production facility is a real deal or not.  I already know (or believe) that this is a real deal just by looking at the Canadian news regarding Lakeshore with picture of the Mayor with the Cen Biotech team.

Since I bought a boat load of $XTRM in the morning, my port was up 18% by day-end.  Although this port is about 1/10 the size of the main account (see above); I’ve a feeling that if these two cannabis stocks can really take off, this port may even eclipse the main account in a year or two in term of dollar amount.  The race is on!

My 2 cents.

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02-14-2014 Trading Journal

The market continued to rally and is now coming near the previous high established in early January.  This could be a resistance to watch out for.

SPY_Daily

If price takes out this resistance, the bull trend is still on (the blue line near the $185.00.  Where price will go after seeing $185.00 will determine which direction market will go b/w now and March (up, down, or consolidation).

$LRAD took home the bacon today by bouncing nicely.

LRAD_daily

Notice how price had gone ahead and away from the consolidation range.  It looks like some motivated sellers had completed their task after earning announcement and buyers are coming back   Let’s see if price can take out the previous high of $2.24.

$CERS also continued to move up without giving back gain.

CERS_daily

Price could become resilient against downdraft as the timetable comes near the FDA decision in early 2014. I am holding this one thru the FDA decision ’cause I’ve strong conviction on this stock.  Please remember I had the same conviction on $AMRN and that didn’t do me any good.  On the other hand, conviction has nothing to do with being right or wrong; it has everything to do with your ability to “take the risk” for a potential reward.

Most of the other positions were either neutral or going thru minor corrections; but because of the gain from $LRAD and $CERS, my port continued to advance further to recover most of my early 2014 gain.

Current holdings:

KNDI, LRAD, CERS, SEED, KGJI, HALO, TINY, APRI (fully speculated).

From my other account:

$FITX, unfortunately, did not advance together with its peer on the positive news that the Fed is allowing some leeway for the banking system to work with legalized marijuana businesses.  I noticed there were quite a few bashers trying to create doubt regarding the prospect of $FITX getting approval for the Canadian production facility.  Mark my words, $FITX is a HIGHLY speculative stock that can either bring you a lot of money or take away your speculative investment.  At this point, with limited information such as SEC filings and period of uncertainty from having to wait for the build-out of the production facility as well as the final approval from the Canadian Gov’t to give Cen Biotech the go-ahead to start production, the next few months will be a volatile time to hold this stock.  I’m still not done buying with the gain I made from $PHOT.  I may continue to buy if price continue to dip with gain from $PHOT.  Thus, if $FITX does not fulfill its plan to complete the construction and getting necessary permit, I will only give back my gain from $PHOT.

In summary, at this point, my ability to hold $FITX is based on “faith” that $FITX is a real deal and that the marijuana market has only just begun their ascent to the legitimate businesses with huge opportunity to make money from the ground floor.

Back to the daily chart:

FITX_daily

Price is now hovering around the congruence of several technical supports: support from the last three trading days (blue line), Fib 23.6% retracement from historically low to recent high, and 38.2% retracement from recent low to recent high.  Does that mean this congruence will hold?  Nope.  It only means there is a possibility buyers will be there to buy the stock when price reach that level.  But that doesn’t tell you how many sellers are waiting to sell.  The battle b/w the bull and the bear continues.

My 2 cents.

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2013- the year of Persistence, Patience, and Perseverance

Let me start off this post with a quote from Calvin Coolidge:

Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.

In hindsight, we know the market has marched on ahead in an upward, albeit in a wavy manner, direction in the year of 2013; nevertheless, my personal path to achieving stock market gain was an uphill battle fraught with potholes and slippery slopes.

Potholes I fell into in 2013:

  • $ECTY- large losses (company filing bankruptcy)
  • $ETRM- medium losses (failed Phase III study)

Slippery slopes I encountered:

  • $AMRN- large losses (you know the story)
  • $USU- large losses (I bailed before the reverse split and the ensuing gigantic rally afterward)
  • $SZYM- medium losses (whipsawed from over-trading in downtrend market)
  • $APRI- medium losses (holding against a downtrend and gave up before the recovering year-end rally)
  • $NCTY- medium losses (mistake in betting big on a thinly traded and small float stock)

Despite the multiple losses I endured from the above trades, they were all managed losses.  In other words, I didn’t let these losses get out of control by averaging down.  While some of the losses were large, it was because I made the initial large bet to begin with and not as a result of averaging down   While I had suffered mental frustration with these controlled losses (who wouldn’t?), I did not wallow in self-pity, I got back up and moved on.  I am persistence because I know I can get my money back as long as I’ve my capital intact.  It is a matter of being perseverance in searching for the stocks that will give me back the money and more.

Sidebar: It is extremely important that you manage your losses according to sound money management principle.  If I had not managed my losses, I would not be able to recover no matter how persistence I could be.  The rule of trading world is that you MUST protect your capital to fight another day.  My trading style is focused on finding the hi-beta stocks that will give me the jackpot I’m looking for; thus, I know I’ve to take some hits from time-to-time.   While this has been my endeavor, I’m still developing and evolving as a trader; therefore, trading mistakes were made (as in $SZYM, $APRI, and $NCTY) and I’m learning from them.

Having covered my losses, let’s go over my wins!

  • $KNDI- very large gain
  • $INO- very large gain
  • $LRAD- large gain
  • $GALE- medium gain
  • $GOGO- medium gain
  • $NUGT- medium gain
  • $CERS- medium gain
  • $CLIR- medium gain

My biggest win in 2013 was $INO. Upon hearing about $INO, I did my research but was initially skeptical since stock price had been trading below below $1.00 for first half of the year. But when price started to climb to near dollar, I began to take notice of a possible breakout.  Then the proliferation of positive preclinical news came into the foreground.  With price advancing over $1, I began to average UP.  Not only that, I kept averaging up on each bounce up after a brief consolidation; by the time price reached $3, I was sitting on such huge gain it would be foolish not to lock in profit especially when I knew the preclinical trials result was still a long way to human trials.  In other words, the price went up too far too fast.  I exited about 80% of my position at an average price of $2.75 and the rest in mid-to-low $2.xx.  It was a very profitable trade.

$KNDI was a trade I found after I got burned by $ECTY.   Despite the punch on the stomach (figure-of-speech), I refused to give up my beliefs in the potential of EV.  $TSLA has pretty much convinced me that EV does have a place in our society after my few failed attempts to short $TSLA with put option.  My shorting $TSLA was based on simple assumption that the market cap had gone too far ahead of the fundamental; however, when I saw the actual Tesla Model S in the showroom and the elegant and simple design of the electric motor compared to the complicated ICE (internal combustion engine); I was sold on the concept of EV.

Tesla high-end car succeeds because Elon Musk knows that the top 10% of the wealth will buy the car if it looks nice and function perfectly.  And when Consumer Reports magazine gave the Tesla Model S the highest score in its Ratings: 99 out of 100 back in July, I knew then that EV is here to stay.

However, the only problem is that if $TSLA, the only EV with a much longer driving range on a single charge than its cheaper competition, already captured the top 10% wealth; who will buy the cheaper EV models with shorter range?  Hence my belief that $ECTY was the key solution to expanding the EV market for cheaper EV models.  Little did I know that $ECTY was so badly managed, despite its being the company chosen by US Department of Energy to spearhead the charging station project, that I promptly lost 80+% of my investment in a single day after $ECTY made an announcement of its major issues.

Still very much believing in the EV potential and that $ECTY mismanagement did not equal to EV failure, I kept on researching for the next EV stock to speculate.

Then I found $KNDI.

What tickle me the most about $KNDI is that it is not selling directly to the consumer which I know will not work because of the range anxiety.  Without the proliferation of charging station everywhere, it will be difficult for an accelerated growth in consumer buying.  But $KNDI is offering a solution that automatically solves the range anxiety issue; not only that it also solves the charging station issue as well.  By embracing the concepts of car-to-go and zipcar except that the EV must be returned to the garages strategically located at multiple fixed locations for recharging purposes, $KNDI found an optimal solution to the range anxiety and battery dilemma in the EV market.  What is more important is that consumers do not need to buy the car but simply rent them for a very low price that is cheaper than hiring a taxi.

At the time when I found $KNDI, price was trading around $5 after it came back down from a quick run to $8.  Because of the secondary offering after the spike to $8, the stock was mercilessly attacked by the short.  On top of that, the uncertainty from having to  wait for the new China EV subsidies that had yet to be announced only added fuel to the short.

Hmmm….

Instead of going away like most everyone because of the history of bad blood from some stock scams from China, I began to see this as an opportunity to buy when it was still cheap.  After reading all the due diligence performed by other $KNDI believers and compared them to those who short, my own analysis prompted me to start building a position in $KNDI.  While I was building my position, $KNDI was trading in a tight range b/w $4.50 and $5.50.  Plenty of patience was required on my part.

The good thing about having a large position on a stock is that you tend to watch its trading pattern very closely on a daily basis.  And when price crossed back over the 79 & 89 MA lines to the upside, I could sense a coming rally.  Thus, I decided to buy a boatload of Dec $7.50 call to supplement my stock position.  As luck would have it, right after I had bought the options, the stock became a runner the very next day.  When price reached $9 and started to reverse direction, I had the good sense to lock in profit on 70% of my option trades.  The rest I gave back to the market when it expired worthless.  Having exited most of my option trades, I decided to reduce my stock position as well to lock in profit.  My swing trade mentality was in full-swing.

From then on, I bought and sold $KNDI to supplement my core position without success for two months.  In fact, my realized gain was slowly leaking thru the multiple whip-saws from my trading in-and-out of the trading position. And then the news of Geely announcing to the public that it would have the EV version of the London black taxi available in five years.  That was all I needed to hear to double-down on $KNDI.  After the Geely announcement, I knew it was time to stop swing trading $KNDI.  Why did I feel that way?  It was the subtle message from Geely that it is committing to the EV market; otherwise, why made such a bold statement?  With $KNDI being in a 50/50 joint venture with Geely for the sole purpose of building EV cars, $KNDI has a LOT to gain from this announcement.

Again, I was correct in my assessment; thanks to my double-down on $KNDI, my gain was quite phenomenon in the last week in 2013.

Sidebar: Performing daily homework in researching for potential runner is the discipline that keeps me going forward.  And I’m not just talking about picking up stock ’cause so and so says he/she is buying.  I need to analyze the fundamental and decide if the stock has the “story” as well as a chart pattern to support it before I venture in.  If you are willing to do YOUR own analysis and homework on a stock regardless where you hear it from, the stock will become YOUR own pick; not someone pick.  And you will trade this stock according to YOUR trading strategy; not someone’s.  The benefit of doing YOUR own analysis is that you will LEARN from your mistake and grow as a trader. Otherwise, you will never grow as a trader if all you do is to follow someone pick.

My purpose of writing about my thought process in my $KNDI and $INO trades is to emphasize the importance of doing your own research.  By doing your own research, you will get a much better sense of the stock and how it is trading.  If you are the more risk-taking type, you may even augment your position size like I’ve done with $INO and $KNDI.

$GOGO came to mind as another perfect example.  After The Fly made the call on $GOGO, I began to research the stock and like what I saw.  Then I started to build up my position based on my analysis of the chart-pattern.  In other words, I began to trade $GOGO irrespective of what The Fly was doing with his $GOGO position.  If you do your own homework, you make the stock your own and you only have yourself to blame if the stock doesn’t perform.  This is the ONLY way you can learn and grow as a trader.

To conclude my post, despite having my portfolio down in the middle of the 2013 due to my losses mentioned above, I was able to climb back out of the hole and ended the year in a very positive note.

Due to my evolving as a trader, I am now focused on shepherding my current portfolio of nine hi-beta stocks for the potential run-up in 2014.  Holding on to a winning position for as long as I can is the only way to make the big bucks.  I like to see all nine of my stocks, if possible, to run the way $LNG and $CLDX ran in 2013 (both of these stocks I used to own but got out way too early!)

Current holdings:

$KNDI – I believe $KNDI will dominate in China with its business model of selling to the car-sharing garages.

$LRAD – I believe its newly minted mass-notification technology will dominate the replacement of the obsolete bullhorn speaker notification system worldwide.

$KGJI- I believe that the new wealth in China will increase consumers’ crave for 24K gold products that $KGJI will have blow-out quarter-to-quarter revenues that price has no choice but to keep going up.

$CERS- I believe that FDA will approve $CERS blood purification system.  Why?  ’cause they are selling them to Europe already without any issues.

$INO- I am “betting” that $INO has finally tweaked its synthetic DNA enough to work in human.

$GALE- I believe its Astral drug will sell well quarter after quarter.  I’m also “betting” that its NeuVax breast cancer treatment will succeed.

$XONE- I believe its 3D manufacturing machines will become dominant in the manufacturing sector.

$AMRN- I believe FDA will meet $AMRN half-way on its Vascepa label expansion.

$TINY- I believe that its portfolio of private investment in multiple nanotechnology companies will take fruition in 2014.

I wish everyone a happy and prosperous New Year!

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Don’t underestimate the services offered by $CERS

I’ve been accumulating $CERS again recently after a rough start earlier in the year.  This time, I think I will just hold it for the fundamental reason that, in my opinion, the services offer by $CERS’ products may become a standard requirement for all blood banks in the future.

Why not?

As our population grows, it increases the need for more blood in the blood banks.  By utilizing $CERS products, blood banks can eliminate the risk of contaminated blood.

It is this simple.

European countries are already using $CERS’ products.  Cerus is now waiting for FDA to approve the use of its product in the US.  What is the odd of FDA disapproving it when the products have already been in use by other countries?

In summary, there is a large market in the US for Cerus to tap into once FDA gives its nod.  Thus, the risk in this play is really the decision of the FDA.  Oh wait, this is nothing new here in the land of biotech…

But then I’m willing to wager that the FDA approval of Cerus product is as “fill in the blank” as approving $AMRN for their mid-trig (200-500) level use.

Now you see why I’m betting on this one, eh?

Take a look at the monthly chart below.  I like to see the $10 target reach in the early 2014 if not sooner.

CERS_monthly

Today price action took out $6 resistance; naturally, I added a bit more because of this breakout.

My 2 cents.

Below is information from $CERS website on how its product works:

How INTERCEPT Works

The INTERCEPT Blood System for platelets and plasma employs the unique properties of our amotosalen HCl molecule to block the replication of DNA and RNA, preventing the proliferation of susceptible pathogens. For red blood cell pathogen inactivation, a similar treatment process has been developed using a different molecule called S-303.

Platelets and red blood cells are not inactivated by the crosslinking process because they do not require nucleic acids to function.  Plasma is not inactivated by the treatment because it is an acellular product (proteins and liquid).

Controlled Reaction
The interactions of amotosalen and S-303 with DNA and RNA are highly specific and occur with high frequency even at low concentrations of nucleic acids (Fig.1).  Once inside a pathogen, the compounds dock in between the nucleic acid base pairs.  Upon illumination with ultraviolet A light (amotosalen) or a change in pH (S-303), an interstrand crosslink is formed, “locking” the DNA or RNA together so that it can no longer replicate.  These reactions require UVA light or pH change, and will not continue in the absence of these conditions.

 Figure 1 



Broad Spectrum of Inactivation

The crosslinking activity of amotosalen and S-303 is not limited to particular nucleic acid sequences or specific families of pathogens, so unlike testing procedures this blood safety method does not rely upon advance identification of potentially harmful organisms. The replication of a broad spectrum of viruses, bacteria and parasites, as well as leukocytes, can be inactivated with these treatment processes.

– See more at: http://www.cerus.com/Products/how-intercept-works2/default.aspx#sthash.66Z5KwFt.dpuf

Comments »

Can $CERS break out of its long-term resistance?

I’m betting that it will.

Take a look at the monthly chart below:

CERS_monthly

Currently, price action is bumping against the 89xma as well as the resistance that go way back to the high of April 2004.  However, from the look of it, price action has been “grouping” upward on a monthly basis recently.  I’m sure all it takes now is a little nudge and price action will just explode skyward.  Skyward!  Uh Oh!  You’ve caught me using the “pumping” word…

Anyway, my interpretation is that the chart looks bullish.

Below is the weekly chart:

CERS_weekly

This week bar is very strong which may be setting up the stage for next week big push to break out of the monthly resistance.

Below is the daily chart:

CERS_daily

See how it bounces off near the 79 sma and the 89 xma?  The 5 sma is now crossing over the 15 sma.  All of these technical signals just give me more confidence to add more today.

Fundamentally speaking, instead of rehashing of what others have done, I’m going to paste an excerpt from (gawd forbids) a contributor in Seeking Alpha…

GZ: Cerus Corp. (CERS) is a very interesting company. It developed a blood pathogen inactivation system, called INTERCEPT, for all three products derived from blood donations – platelet concentrates, plasma and red blood cell concentrates. A key milestone that the company recently reported was an agreement with the FDA allowing it to file for premarket approval (PMA) for the platelet concentrates in the U.S. without having to do another phase 3 trial. Assuming an approval, this shortens the time to commercialization by one to two years.

Notably, the company is already selling its INTERCEPT Blood System in quite a few countries, mainly in Europe. All of Switzerland uses the product for platelet concentrates. Much of France uses the system. A number of centers in Germany, Belgium and other countries use it. INTERCEPT is a revenue-generating product for an unmet need because emerging pathogens, viruses in particular, might be penetrating the blood supply, while bacterial contamination of platelet concentrates, though rare, still kills patients.

Once the authorities that regulate the blood supply look at INTERCEPT, it becomes a no-brainer. However, these are typically bureaucratic government organizations, and sometimes it takes a crisis, as it did in Switzerland with the untimely death of a child who was administered platelet concentrates contaminated with bacteria, to get INTERCEPT approved and used.

There’s no real blockbuster here in the sense that the company will end up with billions in revenue from this product after it gets more approvals. But Cerus is a relatively risk-free and an incrementally positive investment that I see growing steadily year over year. I think approval in the U.S., possibly in the second half of next year, would be a strong catalyst for the stock.

TLSR: Could these systems be used in the field, such as in developing countries, as easily as they could be used in a modern clinic?

GZ: Yes. Basically, INTERCEPT is a kit with bags for treatment and for storage of the final product, and what’s called an illuminator, an ultraviolet light that catalyzes the reaction between the additive and the DNA of pathogens, which are prevented from replicating. All that is needed is an electrical supply and other basic equipment for blood handling-refrigeration for plasma and red blood cells. Platelets are kept at room temperature. The really big markets are the big blood centers-the American Red Cross, the New York Blood Center and others.

This time around, I’m going to “try” to sit on this position for a longer-term hold…

My 2 cents.

 

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Breakout Alert!

Yesterday, I posted a thesis on possible breakout of $CERS within a couple of days and speculated accordingly.  It is my duty to inform you that the breakout occurs today.

Yippee Yapa doo!

Ok, now that I got that wave of excitement out of the way, let’s look at the charts a little bit more:

Below is the daily $CERS chart:

CERS_daily

 

The breakout is clean and solid.  Notice that it also took out the upper range of the Bollinger band.  That usually mean the bullish force is tremendous here.

Below is the weekly $CERS chart.  This chart is just to show you the possible potential giving the prior landscape.

CERS_weekly

 

Per my trading strategy, I added to $CERS today.

My 2 cents

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