iBankCoin
Don't pay dollar to keep 2 cents when wrong. Cut your losses quickly. Trade what you see, not what you think.
Joined Oct 26, 2011
719 Blog Posts

10-14-2014 Trading Journal

The market really tried hard to rally; unfortunately, it went out of mojo to maintain altitude.

SPY_Daily

While price gave back most of the gain during the day, it at least closed higher.

Today, four out of five went up.  It was $LRAD that closed negative.

LRAD_daily

Nevertheless, price is finding support at the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$DMRC continued to head higher in anticipating of next week earning conference call.  Will the big retailers’ name be revealed?  Do they like the Digimarc barcode?

DMRC_daily

If price can take out the 79 & 89 MA lines to the upside, we are heading higher.  And if there are positive news regarding the big retailers, we will see a rocket launch soon due to the fact that $DMRC has a super small float of only 6+ million shares.

$ORBC also had a good day with strong momentum behind it.

ORBC_daily

Price broke out of its tight consolidation and approached the 79 & 89 MA lines to the touching point. Will it simply walk over the lines tomorrow?

$CERS had a spike up day.

CERS_daily

Price is now on top of the 79 & 89 MA lines.  If it can find support on these two lines, it will be in good shape.

Thanks to four stocks being up, my port, after offsetting $LRAD drawdown, still came out with a 1.4% gain for the day.  YTD gain is now at 3.7%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, CERS, AMRN and 10.3% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

Comments »

10-13-2014 Trading Journal

And the bear kept on dragging down the bull…

SPY_Daily

Price is now in the neutral zone (the tan rectangular box).  This is the same area the market struggled b/w March and June before breaking out to the upside.  I didn’t like the fact that the double bottom couldn’t hold.

I was curious about how $IBIO would open.  I was pleasantly surprised that pre-market was up $1.30 (88%).

“Take the money!” I shouted at myself.

Then I realized I could not get out even if I wanted to ’cause my cash account does not allow pre-market or after-hour trading.  So, I crossed my finger hoping the pre-market high would hold thru the opening bell.  No such luck.

Then I had to witness the falling prices (from $2.7x to below $2.3x) in the last five minutes before the opening bell.

“Take the money anyway”  I told myself.

So I put the market order in and sold the rest of my $IBIO at the open.

Why didn’t I wait?

That was because I’d seen too many times where price gapped up and then would spend all day falling back down.  I decided to take the money and saved myself the grief and anxiety of worrying about giving back profit when I wasn’t looking.  I actually felt a sense of relief after taking profit.  In biotech, there is no telling when price will turn on a dime and simply take away your paper gain in a NY minute.  I’ve overstayed too many times and experienced enough vanishing profit to appreciate a generous gift when it appeared without notice.  Sure, price may continue higher but I leave it to those who can bear the pressure.

IBIO_daily

That was a really nice gap up.  Let’s just hope there is no gap down tomorrow for the sake of those who are still holding.

Today, four out of six positions went up. Unfortunately, $LRAD was not able to maintain gain in the last hour market avalanche.

$CERS finally turned green so I didn’t need to cut losses.  $DMRC and $ORBC were able to maintain most of its gain for the day despite the market waterfall.

The gains from $IBIO, $DMRC, $ORBC, and $CERS were able to offset $LRAD drawdown and still  have a gain of 2.2% for the day with YTD gain at 2.3%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, CERS, AMRN and 10.5% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

Comments »

10-10-2014 Trading Journal

The bear wasn’t done yet and the bull could not climb against a slippery slope.

SPY_Daily

Nevertheless the bull may have a resting place to pause and possibly to bounce as well.  Notice that price today closed right at the August low which is now a support or a double-bottom.  There is a 50/50 the bull may bounce next week.

With fortune blessing, I’d a good day today.  It all started with my attention on $IBIO yesterday.  A small voice in the back of my head said, “Hey, load back $IBIO at 70 cents with the cash you got from selling $KNDI and $CERS.”

But I wasn’t ready to load up on a hi-beta biotech stock in the middle of a down day when my port was getting hammered.  So I passed.  But when I noticed that $IBIO opened higher (> 90 cents) this morning, I checked for news and there were none.  Then I checked for the latest Ebola news to see if this virus had been contained.  It is not.  The guy in Texas died.

“Somebody knows something?” I thought to myself.

I waited a minute or two after the open to see if price would sell back down below 90 cents.  Nope.  Then price started to move to 95, 96, 97 in succession.

That is!  I’m going in.

I started buying ’cause my intuition told me price was going to break out $1 very soon.  Resistance developed around 99 cents but I didn’t care, I just kept buying to build my position up.  After I built up to 50% of my original size.  I stopped.  I thought of adding since I still had plenty of cash left.  Then my cautious side told me to spread it to other biotech such as $CERS and $AMRN.  $CERS was bouncing in the morning so I bought back what I sold.  $AMRN was holding strong at 99 cents to a dollar so I checked the script number for the week.  It was up so I bought back in at a dollar.  If script number can climb over 10,000 per week soon, $AMRN at a dollar is a steal.

$IBIO busted out over $1 after I bought what I needed.  It went as high as $1.16 before falling back down to my entry point.

“Get out at breakeven?” I asked myself.

“Nah, hold on.  Remember this is a cash account, once you get out, you can’t jump back in until a few days later.”

“Ok then. Let’s hold a bit longer,”

Then I got busy with other non-trading business.  Lucky thing I did ’cause price went back above $1 and then fell back down to $1 for the 2nd time in the afternoon.  If I was watching, I might be tempted to get out at breakeven giving the general market was fighting to stay positive at the same time.

When I finally get back to watching the market an hour before the closing bell.  I couldn’t believe my eyes.  $IBIO was climbing  and climbing.  By the time it started to correct after trading to the high of $1.39, I was very tempted to sell some to lock in profit.  My finger was at the mouse button ready to push.  Seeing that the general market was literally falling apart, I clicked the mouse button and 50% of my position I bought this morning was let go.  And so I thought I did good.

“Holly Molly!”

Price began to climb again.

I looked at $CERS and it was down.  “Darn, if I bought more $IBIO instead of $CERS, that would be very nice…”

Yeap, like everyone, sometimes I did get infected with the hindsight bug as well.  “Could’ve, should’ve” started invading my mind.  I reminded myself that I was lucky to have the other 50% which represents 25% of my original position.  Meanwhile, all the time, I was mindful that $LRAD was trading in the positive territory most of the day.  I gave my thanks for a fortunate day while partly ignorant that the Nasdaq dropped like a rock to end the week since I was so focused on the after hour trading of $IBIO which traded to a high of $1.91.  Wow!

IBIO_weekly

I’m posting the weekly chart of $IBIO ’cause this is the only way to appreciate the magnitude of the move today.  “If I could be holding my original size all the way…”  Oop! The hindsight bug struck again.  In retrospect, I did what I had to do giving the overall market sentiment.  I already had three long-term hold so locking in profit on a hi-beta biotech stock was the proper thing to do.  Moving on.

I’m thankful for the $LRAD bounce today.

LRAD_daily

See how price actually bounced off the 79 & 89 MA lines?

Giving the severeness of Nasdaq drop today, $ORBC actually was holding well despite being a negative for the day.

ORBC_weekly

Per the weekly chart, price was holding well on the 79 & 89 MA lines.

Although $DMRC was down today, it did not make new low like a lot of tech stocks out there.

DMRC_weekly

From the weekly chart above, you can see that price only gave back some of last week gain.  The action of $IBIO reminds me that as long as the stock has a strong binary event that if positive can move price the way $IBIO did today.  I’ve the conviction and confidence that the big retailers will adopt the Digimarc barcode system simply because of the efficiency factor.  If that positive decision is to materialize, $DMRC will move the way $IBIO did today; perhaps even more stronger.

$CERS was a bad trade today and I should have cut the losses when it didn’t bounce.  I’m going to see what happen on Monday before deciding what to do with it.

Thanks to stellar gain on $IBIO and the bounce from $LRAD, my port gained back 2.9% which put my YTD gain at 0.1%.  In other words, I’m back to breakeven.   Btw, this calculation did not account for after hour gain on $IBIO.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO, CERS, AMRN and 4% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

Comments »

10-09-2014 Trading Journal

Without question, the bear had the last laugh today…

SPY_Daily

From the daily chart above, the underlying uptrend line (blue line) has not been breached yet.  It is, however, getting very close to breaching.  Price needs to bounce from here to keep the bull in good shape.  If not, the next defense is the top of the rectangular box.

Needless to say, my port took a blood bath today as well.

After the open, I sold $KNDI and $CERS positions to cut losses and raise cash.  I’m keeping the other three since they all have binary events coming in b/w November and end-of-year.  I’ll not be shaken out of these positions.

  • $LRAD- potential huge orders from two large cities in the Middle East for the mass notification system.
  • $DMRC- potential adoption of the Digimarc barcode system by the major retailers
  • $ORBC- launching of eleven more new M2M (machine to machine) satellites by year-end on top of recent launches of six new satellites.

But for now, my port suffered a 5% drop with YTD losses at 2.8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC and 15% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

Comments »

10-08-2014 Trading Journal

The market actually fell onto the trampoline yesterday and bounced to quite a height today.

SPY_Daily

That was a big bad green bar racing back to the 79 & 89 MA lines.  The bull is back on!

Today, my fortune reversed for $LRAD.  Thanks to Cramer mentioning $LRAD, the stock tanked as a result.  Or it could be as simple as big player wanted out to get cash.

LRAD_daily

Despite not being able to recover like every stocks out there after the Fed announcement of no rate increase, the chart still looks bullish.   Notice that the underlying short-term uptrend line is still intact

Meanwhile, the rest of the gang recovered nicely with $ORBC showing the most enthusiasm.

Due to $LRAD failure to recover (for the day), my port gave back 2.2% with YTD gain at 2.2% as well.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, KNDI, CERS (100% invested/speculated)

My 2 cents.

 

Comments »

10-07-2014 Trading Journal

Fore!  And the falling stocks fell all over the places…

SPY_Daily

Just when we thought the market could continue on its merry way, the bear pulled the bull by the neck and yanked it backward.  Ouch!

I’d a very fortunate day today.  Despite being bombarded by falling stocks (4 out of 5) in my port, I was saved by the only one that counted the most since I’m overly weighted on it- $LRAD.

$LRAD introduces the LRAD(R) 450XL – The Loudest Long Range Acoustic Hailing Device for its Size and initial order was received from New York National Guard.  With a better and more powerful product that comes in a size that is compatible with almost all military and law enforcement mobile unit, I can see a coming snowball effect on product sales.  It seems like everything is coming into place.  Not to mention that their state-of-the-art mass notification system is also picking up speed in sales.

LRAD_daily

Chart looks very bullish with today price action.  You could feel that the price wanted to go up bad.  Without the benefit of a rising general market, news of large order can still drive this one up big time.  So, I’m holding and holding.

I sold out all my $IBIO and moved the rest of the proceed to add more $KNDI.  Despite an immediate drawdown on $KNDI, I’m confident that price would eventually pick up and head north when news of China local provinces subsidies are approved.  The weekly chart below show that the overall trend is still up albeit some large swings along the way.

kndi_weekly

Last week doji bar “may” just be a bottom.  Worse case scenario will be that the weekly 79 & 89 MA offer the next support.

Even with today correction, $DMRC still looked good so far.  The 5 MA line is still a good support here.

DMRC_daily

With November closing in and $DMRC being inducted into the GS1 partnership. I say there is a high probability that one of the big five retailers testing the Digimarc barcode  is very satisfied.  My patience may be paying off soon.

$ORBC and $CERS are just fighting the general trend like every stocks.

Thanks to $LRAD being a champ today, my port was able to hold off the bleeding to only 0.5%.  YTD gain is now 4.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, KNDI, CERS (100% invested/speculated).

My 2 cents.

Comments »

10-06-2014 Trading Journal

Market opened higher but slipped on the banana peel once again…

SPY_Daily

Oop! Market landed on its butt; nevertheless, it was keen enough to land on the 89 MA and the trendlines.  As far as I’m concerned, today was a hiccup.

I’d been eyeing $CERS for awhile so I decided to buy when it opened higher.  Despite the immediate drawdown after I bought, I believe this stock is finding its bottom.

CERS_daily

However, I need to see price trades above the 79 & 89 MA lines and not below it.  Let’s see how it fairs this week.

I was surprised to see the strength behind $IBIO and enjoyed the strong rally.  However, being mindful of having gave back gains from $HYGS not too long ago, I decided to become more pro-active in watching the intra-day trend.  After price reached the high of $0.98, I began to watch the 5 & 15 MA lines in the 5 min. chart.  When the 5 crossed below the 15 MA, I started to unload to lock in profit.  When I did not see any meaningful bounce after selling 50% of my position, I began to sell more.  By the day end, I sold 80% of my original position.  Meanwhile, I noticed that $KNDI was rallying hard despite that other stocks were going down.  So, I took the opportunity to use the proceed from $IBIO to buy $KNDI when it started to correct a bit from the afternoon rally.

IBIO_daily

If you ignored the tall candle wick at the top, $IBIO actually had a strong day.  But the sell off after reaching $0.98 was too strong for me to ignore; so I took the opportunity to sell when the volume was there for me to hit the bids.

Seeing the strong afternoon rally in $KNDI, I felt the intuition to buy it.  The daily chart also looked good for a follow-up bounce.

KNDI_daily

The combination of the hooking up of 5 MA lines and the two oscillators below also gave me the confidence to buy.

$DMRC tenacity to stay positive all day was impressive.

DMRC_daily

Notice that the 79 & 89 MA lines are not that far away now.

Unfortunately, $LRAD did not fair well even though it had a great open.  However, I’m not worried about this one at all.

All in all, after adding two stocks today ($KNDI and $CERS), there were only two stocks down in my port.  Thanks to gains from $DMRC and $IBIO, they were enough to offset the drawdown from $LRAD and $CERS to give my port a nice gain of 0.7% with YTD gain at 4.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, KNDI, CERS, IBIO (100% invested/speculated)

My 2 cents.

Comments »

10-03-2014 Trading Journal

The market took a V-shape bounce and confirmed a bullish hammer reversal candlestick pattern.

SPY_Daily

The good news is that price is now back above both the 89 MA line and the 5 MA line.  Next week will determine if this bounce can put the bull back in charge.  In other words, today price action has put the bull back in even ground against the bear.  It is now 50/50 for either direction from a short-term perspective.  From a long-term perspective, the bull is still in charge as shown in the weekly chart below:

SPY_Weekly

The long-tail doji reflected a pattern of “pausing” if you looked at the previous weekly bars on chart.  Thus, I say the probability of a continuing bull move up is high.

Today, $LRAD made up for yesterday’s lack of movement.

LRAD_daily

As you can see, price is now above both the 5 and 15 MA lines with the 5 in the process of crossing over the 15.  This is very bullish.  If price can move over $3 next week, price may test the previous high of $3.88.  The weekly chart below shows a even more favorable odd of a continuing bounce.

LRAD_weekly

Notice price bounce off the  weekly 15 MA line.

$DMRC was able to hold its gain from yesterday.  It was a worthy battle b/w the bull and the bear and the volume reflected it.

DMRC_daily

Price needs to move above the 79 & 89 MA lines soon to get back on the bull side.  Meanwhile the weekly chart shows a beautiful bullish engulfment candlestick bar that reflected a strong tendency to bounce from here.

DMRC_weekly

Perhaps, next week it will take out the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$ORBC, like $DMRC, was able to fight off the bear to hold the gain from yesterday.

ORBC_daily

Price still need to work hard to get back above the 79 & 89 MA lines to maintain a strong bullish outlook.  Giving the confirmation of a bullish hammer reversal pattern here, I say the probability of a continuing bounce is good.  The weekly chart below reflected the determination of the bull to get back on track.

ORBC_weekly

See how price is now back on top of the 79 & 89 MA lines; based on the magical quality of these two MA lines, $ORBC is going to bounce from here.

$IBIO was also able to fight off the bear and closed higher.

IBIO_daily

Price is now looking like a potential double-top.  Not necessarily a good sign; however, if you look at the weekly chart below, price definitely look like it is going to take out the January high of 0.85 soon.

IBIO_weekly

See how the weekly bar closed much higher than the 89 MA line?  Notice how all the weekly MA lines are either in the process of pointing up or already pointing up. We may see price trading over $1 soon.

As you can see from the daily charts above, all four of my positions were up today.  My port gained back another whopping 4.2% with YTD gain at 4.2%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO and 5.5% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

Comments »

10-02-2014 Trading Journal

The market took a dip but made a gallant came back to close even for the day.

SPY_Daily

It was a much needed bounce to put a pause to the falling market.  Let’s see if it can take out today high tomorrow.

Meanwhile my port bounced strong for the day. Two of the four bounced 16% each with the third one up 4%.  For some reason, $LRAD did not participate in the bounce even though it announced new sales on their mass notification system.

$DMRC is finally initiated by Ladenburg Thalmann as a buy.  Price bounced hard with a 16.8% gain.

DMRC_daily

With a big green bar and high volume, we might just see the bottom here.  Shall it head back up now?  With November approaching, the investors are all wondering which one of the Big 5 retailer is testing the Digimarc barcode.  A positive response from this big retailer will send this stock much higher.

The next 16% club member is $IBIO.  The story is that Caliber Biothjerapeutics, a partner with $IBIO, is in negotiation to produce Ebola vaccine.  As in any story, price can only continue higher if there are follow-up with a contract.  We will see if that is the case.  One of the reason I like $IBIO is because its science and technology will allow vaccine to develop much more faster to keep pace with the threat.

IBIO_daily

Chart looks good so far even though some sell-off at today high brought the gain back down to a still respectable 16%.

Follow behind the 16% club is the 4% single member- $ORBC.

ORBC_daily

I like the fact that today took out the high of yesterday which may form a bullish hammer reversal pattern.

Thanks to the above three stocks, my port gained back a whopping 4.9% which put my port back to breakeven for the YTD with three months left to make some solid gain.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO and 5.7% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

Comments »

10-01-2014 Trading Journal

The bear finally took the air out of the bull.

SPY_Daily

Both 79 & 89 MA lines were penetrated to the downside.  The next support is the old high of April.

Despite the 200+ point fall on the DOW, I was fortunate to see $LRAD came back down from the low of the day to close higher.  By doing so, it offset losses from $DMRC, $ORBC, and $IBIO to the point where my port only gave back 0.1% with YTD losses at 4.9%.

Whew!

In the morning, I saw $NUGT being the few rare stocks that were up instead of down; so I took a risk and bought some for the bounce with a hard stop below intra-day low.  I wasn’t so fortunate on this trade, my stop was hit and I took my losses.  It was really an unnecessary losses for I had no business buying in a down market.  While I escaped more losses from $HYGS and $AMRN by getting out on Monday, I did not escape my own impatient today.  Oh well, moving on.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO and 6% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

Comments »