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Daily Journal update

08-04-2014 Trading Journal

Well, the market did bounce.  This further proves that a doji on support equal to a propensity to bounce.

SPY_Daily

However, volume was half of the last two trading days; thus, this bounce has yet to be proven to hold water.

Today, four out of six of my stocks went up today.

$STV and $AMRN both had some good bounce that might have further legs to run.

STV_daily

AMRN_daily

Both $STV and $AMRN look like they may break out of the overhead resistance soon.

$HYGS took out recent high but gave back much again.

HYGS_daily

But it still closed a bit higher.  Price looks like it is getting ready to run again.

DMRC_daily

$DMRC, while down again, looks like it may find the bottom here.

Overall, thanks to $HYGS, $STV, $MARN, and $LRAD, my port gained back 1.1% today.  YTD losses is now 3%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, STV, AMRN, ORBC (100% invested/speculated).

My 2 cents.

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08-01-2014 Trading Journal

The market took another tumble albeit a relatively small one compared to yesterday.

SPY_Daily

Looking at the chart, you can see for formation of a doji bar right on the 79 & 89 MA lines.  In a normal circumstance, a doji at any support or resistance has a better than 50% chance of reversing from current momentum.  Without resistance or support nearby the doji, it is more of a pause of existing trend.  Notice I stated “better than 50%”; not necessary in the high percentile of 70% and up.  However, if I’m a betting man, I’ll bet it is going to bounce next week.

While I got away yesterday from bigger losses, market found a way to hand it back to me today.

First, I sold my whole lot of $KGJI simply ’cause I was annoyed by the withdrawal of the cash dividend that was posted to my account.  Since I used the cash dividend to add more $AMRN, the withdrawal put me in a deficit cash situation (remember, I’m 100% invested in a non-margin account) and I received a debit call from my broker this morning.  I’ve never experienced a retraction of cash dividend ever after being posted to my account by any company.  This retraction was a red flag no matter how you spin it.  Waiting for approval from provincial government?  What if the provincial government denies approval?  Does that mean, “Sorry folks, we tried to give you dividend, but the big boss says no.” 

Anyway, to relieve my cash deficit, I sold some $KGJI to balance it back.  Then before I knew it, I sold the whole lot ’cause I just didn’t like the red flag that was handed to me in a silver platter.  With the add’l cash, I added more $HYGS.  Yes, I am a big believer in the emergent relevancy of fuel cell technology.

The irony of the day is that $HYGS is the only stock in my port that went up today while the other five stocks were down.

HYGS_weekly

Take a look at the weekly chart above. This week was an up bar that continued from last week up bar while the $SPY had a big down weekly bar this week.  The counter-trend against the falling general market makes $HYGS a very bullish stock when general market turns bullish. Imagine seeing the beginning of the 3rd wave of the five wave Elliott Wave Theory on the weekly chart.  I can see $100+ when the 3rd wave complete its run.  Pardon my excitement here.

$DMRC continued to disappoint but I’ve resigned to wait this one out.  A sudden turn-around can be expected if a deal can be struck with any big name retailers.

$AMRN gave back was expected as I had stated yesterday.  Without FDA response today, no one wanted to hold thru the weekend.  However, giving the volume yesterday compared to today’s, I suspected a lot more people are holding for the FDA decision.

Today damage was 2.7% against my port and YTD losses is 4.1%.

Current holdings… and then there is six…

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, STV, AMRN, ORBC (100% invested/speculated)

Notice that $HYGS is now my 2nd largest position.  $DMRC will have to earn its place back by climbing back up in the near future.

From my other account:

I bought $KNDI for the bounce and bounced it did; but it also took out my breakeven stop later on.

My 2 cents.

 

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07-31-2014 Trading Journal

The bear finally found the bull weak spot and pushed its advantage.  As a result, the market fell hard.

SPY_Daily

However, price is approaching the 79 & 89 MA support lines.  I’m anticipating a bounce from here since it is near the support MAs.  As seen from the daily chart above,although today was down big, it is still within the context of the bull market.  In other words, the major uptrend line has not been violated yet.  If it bounces from here, the bull is still on.

While five of my seven stocks were down, $AMRN rallied hard thanks to Adam Feuerstein, who foresaw the collapse of $AMRN before it actually happened, wrote a somewhat bullish thesis in that $AMRN is a good bet with good risk/reward ratio.. Thus, $AMRN singlehandedly stopped my port from taking a big hit in today market avalanche.

AMRN_daily

See how price took out the high of $1.78 established in July 1st?  This confirmed a more bullish stance ’cause the two previous pivot highs (May 2nd and July 1st) had been taken out.  Now, if price can only stay above the $1.78 for the time being while waiting for the FDA decision.  In reality, despite my up day on $AMRN, the gain was on borrowed time ’cause if FDA voted no again, down it goes.  However, if FDA votes yes, it will make my day as well as my year.

Another stock worth mentioning is $HYGS.

HYGS_daily

Despite being down more than a buck during the day, it had enough buyers to push it back to close at 46 cents lower.  Being a small float stock, it was a strong performance in a down day.  If I had spare cash, i will see any price below $22 a good bargain to buy more.  I guess I wasn’t the only one thinking this way.

I was surprised to see $STV closed higher for the day.

STV_daily

It did trade lower but it came back to close higher.

I had a strange incident today with my $KGJI cash dividend.  I saw the money in my account as promised by previous dividend declaration news from $KGJI.  Then I found out later that $KGJI actually was postponing issuing the dividend until August 28th.  What’s up with that?  Since I already got my dividend in my account, I thought I lucked out with a premature slip.  I used the proceed to buy more $AMRN.

Lo and behold, when I looked at the online statement just now, I found that $KGJI actually pulled the cash dividend out of my account!  What bug me was that $KGJI had a whole month after announcement of dividend declaration to seek approval from their government, why now?  Anyway, I’ve to revisit my conviction in staying with this stock.

If $KGJI had not pulled out the cash dividend, I would have a positive day.  Instead, my port suffered a small 0.5% losses thanks to $AMRN for saving the day.  YTD losses is now 1.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, AMRN, ORBC (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

I placed a breakeven stop on $KNDI and was promptly stopped out in the morning.  Oh well…

My 2 cents.

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07-30-2014 Trading Journal

The bear paws were big and ugly, tried as it might to push the bull underwater, the horn of the bull could be seen splashing water while fighting to free from the bear paws..  By the closing, the bull head could be seen above the water smoking a cigar while the bear was napping from exhaustion.

SPY_Daily

Due to the long tail, I say the bull has a good chance to regaining some more ground tomorrow.

Today was a bright day for me.  $HYGS continued to shine over my port.  As expected, investors like what they’ve heard on the earnings conference call.  I believe $HYGS is currently trading at the bottom relative to future price trend.  It doesn’t matter it is $22 or $24, we are still at the bottom.  Imagine five years later when 10% of the country is driving fuel-cell cars or that 20% of the power-grid is hooked up to power-to-gas hydrogen storage system around the globe.  Are you seeing the picture here?   Remember how long it took 3D printing technology to become relevant to investors’ mindset?  Well, I believe the time has come for fuel cell technology to become relevant in our near future.

HYGS_daily

See how price closed slightly above the $23 resistance.  I like to see price traded above $23 going forward to maintain the bull stance.  However, I won’t hold my breath for it.  Giving its low float status, price will trend up in a wavy manner like a guy running in zig-zag to avoid getting hit by flying arrows.

$DMRC continued in forming a U-shape curve back to the upside.

DMRC_daily

However, I like to see price get back above the support line as soon as possible.

$AMRN broke out of its small symmetrical triangle.

AMRN_daily

I like to see price head back above the 89 MA line.

Today, four stocks were up with three down slightly.  Thanks to a big part in $HYGS, my port gained 1.9%.  YTD losses is now 0.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

I bought $KNDI for a trade and added more later in the day.  I’m still holding my position as of now.  I like the idea of On-street EV charging/Parking stations since they are much easier to build out comparing to the EV car-sharing garage.  Having the City to allocate the street parking for the EV charging spaces is much easier than negotiating limited land space to build out garages.  In fact, having on-street charging is very similar to the immensely popular bicycle sharing program in China.

My 2 cents.

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07-29-2014 Trading Journal

Market succumbed to the bear pressure and went down today.

SPY_Daily

While the overall trend is still up, today down day penetrated the current short-term uptrend line that started from April 11th.  While this minor dip may not mean anything for now, we will need to watch the future price action carefully.  If price can climb back above the uptrend line, the bull is still in charge.  If this short-term uptrend line cannot hold, then the next support is the support line around $SPY 195.  After that, the 79 & 89 MA support line at around 193.

Today, four of my stocks were up while three were down.  $HYGS took out Friday high but gave back gain to close a bit lower due to earning update tomorrow.  Where price heads next will depend on tomorrow earning guidance.  Since I’m bullish in hydrogen fuel cell technology from $HGYS, I’m holding this stock for long-term despite earnings announcement tomorrow.

$DMRC bounced slightly but I take it as further support at Fib 61.8% retracement.

$ORBC and $AMRN bounced nicely to reflect potential bullish stance.

ORBC_daily

Notice that $ORBC is bouncing off the support line.

AMRN_daily

While $AMRN today bounce may be a prelude to breakout of the small symmetrical triangle.

Thanks to $LRAD partial recovery today along with three other positive up stocks, my port was able to gain back 0.6%.  YTD losses is now 2.8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated)

My 2 cents.

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07-28-2014 Trading Journal

Market traded lower after open but made a gallant effort to climb back to positive territory to close.

SPY_Daily

Price is now at the resistance point again. If market takes out today high tomorrow, it will also take out the resistance as well.  Let see if it can do it.

My port was subjected to quite a bit of volatility today due to wide swing in $HYGS.  But what matter is how it is closed by the end of the day.HYGS_daily $HYGS closed near the high of today trading range which was a positive sign even though it was down for the day.

As far as the chart is concerned, it is still very bullish in my book.  It is my opinion that the development of business progress and the technical signs in the chart are in perfect harmony with each other at the moment. July 30th earnings update will decide if this harmony continues onward.

$DMRC had a small bounce today despite a negative early start.

DMRC_daily

If you look carefully on the chart, you will notice that today price bounced off the Fib 61.8% retracement line.  It is possible that price may begin to climb back up from here.

$STV, $KGJI, and $AMRN all bounced nicely today. Unfortunately, $LRAD, being my largest position, did not do well today.  Thus it dragged my port down by 0.5%  despite some bounces and recovery for the day.  YTD losses is now 3.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated)

My 2 cents.

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07-25-2014 Trading Journal

Market had its correction for the week.

SPY_Daily

It was still a healthy correction with price closing above the 15 MA line.  The bear tried to push it down further but could not overcome the bull resiliency.

The winner of the day in my port is $HYGS. Price went ballistic and rallied 17.6% for the day.

HYGS_daily

With today rally, price took out the $20 as well as the 79 & 89 MA resistances.  The chart is very bullish with the next resistance being $23 established in early May.  Once that resistance is taking out, next resistance is at $28.75 established in late March.  Yes, it won’t be a straight line going up; however, positive earnings outlook coming soon in July 30th may propel price to take out these resistances easily.  I’m holding thru earnings, of course.

Fundamentally speaking, for those who are curious about today price rally, Hydrogenics has proven itself to be leader in Power-to-Gas energy storage system by being selected as a Preferred Respondent by the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) for Ontario in its procurement for Grid Energy Storage.  On top of this project, Hydrogenics “have already experienced the positive impact of having a highly visible reference site with E.ON in Germany” (excerpt from article in above link).

Power-to-Gas is one of Hydrogenics main products and solutions being offered.  And this part of the business has only just begun.  As more and more cities and countries begin to see the validity of the Power-to-Gas energy storage concept, Hydrogencis will be getting calls.  Here is the beauty of Hydrogenics Power-to-Gas energy storage system, “it integrates renewable sources of generation, converts surplus electricity to produce hydrogen or renewable gas, and leverages the attributes of the existing natural gas infrastructure.”

Now, you know why I’m holding this one for a long-long time.  $HYGS is my make-up for the missed $LNG trade in which I bought at $3 and sold at around $7 or $8 and missed the whole ride to current $75+.

I was fortunate to have $HYGS spectacular rally today ’cause my other six stocks were down along with the general market with $DMRC leading the charge.  Hence, my port was down only 0.3% and YTD losses is at 2.9%.

Like I said, all I need is a minimum of one of the seven stocks to have a knock-out rally before year-end to give me a positive year.  We still have the five months before the year is up.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

I daytraded $KNDI today with a small gain.  While I originally bought for a longer-term hold, I changed my mind when I saw my gain becoming smaller in late afternoon.

My 2 cents.

 

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07-24-2014 Trading Journal

Market was practically neutral for the day.

SPY_Daily

Although a new high was attempted during the day. If tomorrow remain neutral or better, we will end the week with a solid weekly up bar.

$DMRC bounced well with higher than average volume.

DMRC_daily

Price is now back above the weekly support line.  With continued strong interest in the Digimarc barcode system by the top retailers in the country, price has a good chance of going up from here.

$HYGS also rallied hard today.

HYGS_daily

Price is now back on the uptrend line.  When price takes out the $20 resistance line, $HYGS will be moving much higher.

While $DMRC and $HYGS were the only two stocks that went up today, price gains were more than enough to offset the negative closings of the five other stocks.  Hence, my port gained back 1% and YTD losses is now at 2.6%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

Since I don’t have any cannabis stocks, I bought some smaller position size of $LRAD, $AMRN, $KGJI, and $DMRC for this account.

My 2 cents.

 

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07-23-2014 Trading Journal

Market opened higher and stayed high all day.

SPY_Daily

The resistance has finally been breached.

$DMRC continued to close lower due to more weak hands getting out before the earnings update after the close.

Well, guess what?

From the conference call, I’m quite satisfied with the progress on the Digimarc barcode front.  One of the Top Five retailer is looking very close to the Digimarc barcode system.  Amazon Firefly is expressing interest in Digimarc IP.  In other words, I don’t care where price is going tomorrow, I’m holding my shares with full conviction. If price gain does not happen in 2014 for $DMRC, I’m sure 2015 will be the year for it.

Since I’ve two stocks that closed positive, my port gave back only 0.6%.  YTD losses is now 3.6%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated)

From my other accounts:

A bearish SeekingAlpha article came out so I sold my shares when prices bounced back above 0.05 to cut losses.  Without the license, $FITX is very vulnerable from any bearish attack due to the high market cap.  Thus, I’m only getting out of the way here.

My 2 cents.

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07-22-2014 Trading Journal

Market kicked the bear down the stairway and continued on higher…

SPY_Daily

For now, the bull have the rest of the week to figure out how to take out the resistance that’s been stopping its advance.

Meanwhile, six of my seven stocks went up today.  $HYGS was fantastic in the day but gave back all gain by closing bell.

$AMRN led the gain with a nice bounce on the chart.

AMRN_daily

If this bounce takes hold and begin a new trend up, it will be the 3rd wave of the Elliott Wave theory.  And the 3rd wave is usually the longest wave of the 5 waves pattern.  I expect this 3rd wave will exceed the Jan high of $2.75.  If FDA changes its heart and approves the label expansion of Vascepa, then this will be one of the longest 3 waves in the history of stock charts.

$STV continued to inch higher.

STV_daily

So far, it is trading in the middle of the consolidation range.  Did you notice that the 5 MA is about the cross-over the 15 MA line?

$KGJI bounced well today.

KGJI_daily

Price is now over the 79 MA line. I see somebodies are finally taking notice that $KGJI is an undervalued “gold nugget” that is waiting to be appreciated.

$DMRC bounced nicely during the day but gave back gain by closing bell. All the weak hands practically left the party before the earnings update tomorrow.  I’m still holding my ticket to the party and is looking forward to have a happy time.  Let’s see if that is the case tomorrow.

Yesterday, i mentioned that the thought of holding $KNDI thru the drawdown was a better deal than my current $DMRC dilemma.  However, looking at the math, it really wasn’t.  To hold $KNDI from $18.5x (from where I took profit) to under $11.00 would involve sitting thru a drawdown of 42% from $18.50 and 52% from the high of $22.4.  Meanwhile, I’m only sitting on a 23% drawdown on my $DMRC position.  That number will change for better or worse after tomorrow update.  It is only from the hindsight of $KNDI recent rally that it “looked” better.  Well, all these number crunching were just to put my perspective back in place.

Thanks for $AMRN leading the gain, my port gained back 1.2% for the day.  YTD losses is now at 3%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

Still waiting for Health Canada response while $FITX position is taking in water…

My 2 cents.

 

 

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