09-16-2014 Trading Journal

The market popped back up like a basketball slipping out of a bear hand from under the water.

And the bear thought they had the bull under submission.

Along with the general market, four out of my five positions bounced as well.

I was corrected to buy ahead of the cup & handle breakout of $IBIO.  As I read up more on the science behind $IBIO and the fundamental development of its business model, I like it so much that I started to increase my position through out the day.  By the time I was done, I’ve doubled my original position.  And as luck would have it, price started to climb above my entry point and broke out of the cup & handle pattern to the upside.

The good news is that price was able to close above the breakout point.  I don’t know if we will have news coming out but I can see that the technology and science behind $IBIO is beginning to mature into functional use.  And with the potential behind it, the microcap status ($45 million only!) of this company put $IBIO in a massive undervalued situation.  This may turn out to be much better than $AMRN in term of potential return on my money.  We will see.

To make this a quick journal, suffice to say that $LRAD, $DMRC, and $ORBC all bounced nicely.  Oh, I forgot to mention that the news of the successful operation of the newly launched satellites failed to move $ORBC higher yesterday.  This might have to do with the Nasdaq melt-down yesterday.  I believe price will begin a slow climb from here.  Thus, I added a tag more today.

$HYGS was disappointing but my position was already pared down to 20% of my original size so the drawdown wasn’t so bad.

Thanks to $IBIO and three of my stocks, my port gained back 2.5% today with YTD gain at 5.8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO, HYGS, and 4% cash.

My 2 cents.

 

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Today was a two faces market day.

While the $SPY showed a normal neutral day that closed at the support line, Nasdaq was getting beat up in the backyard.

Hey, I was among those getting beat up as well.  I got punched in the stomach and a huge slapped across the face that made me feel like stars were spinning above my head.  I couldn’t see straight when I looked at my portfolio.

All my positions were underwater.  Although I had the good sense to unload more of $HYGS when it traded below $20, it didn’t do much help when the rest of the team were all falling by the wayside.  Being a stubborn man that I can be sometimes, I decided to add a bit more $LRAD near the $3 level.  There is simply too much potential big orders in the cards that I’ve plenty of conviction to buy here with free cash available.  And by doing so, I’m at risk of making $LRAD an oversized and overweighted position in my portfolio.  Such is my confidence in $LRAD.

Chartwise, the only good thing I can see here is that price bounced off the lower band of the Bollinger bands.  Statistically speaking, there is a good chance it may bounce from here.  Bounce or not, I’m comfortable holding $LRAD thru volatility thru the 4th Quarter waiting for news.

I also bought $IBIO to replace $AMRN in the biotech department.

Chartwise, it sure looks like a possible cup and handle breakout coming soon.  Of course, we are suppose to play it AFTER the cup & handle breakout; but I’m more aggressive so I’m buying ahead of the breakout.  I must be crazy to buy when buildings were collapsing around me.  But $IBIO seemed to hold quite well in today price action.

Fundamentally speaking, I like to think of $IBIO being a better cousin of $INO.  Both deal with vaccine technology.  Potentially, there are massive upside as well as downside from dilution.  Take your pick.

After the dust settled, my port took a 4.7% hit and YTD gain is now at 3.3%.  Nevertheless, despite current stormy climate, I still believe I may close the year with a respectable return.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, HYGS, IBIO and 10% cash.

My 2 cents.

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Market finally succumbed to bear pressure and closed down for the day.

Let’s see if the supports of the previous highs will hold.  For the bull to continue to have leg. the supports from the 79 & 89 MA lines must hold.

Today, I was busted on my $AMRN play.  Despite all the high cards in the deck and the high probability of the dealer busting (FDA change of heart), I was still busted.  This can happen and will happen time after time whether you are a Blackjack card counter or a stock investor weighting in all the due diligence.

Although I lost, I only gave back all gain and an acceptable losses.  In other words, the damage was not as bad and it was what I thought it would be if FDA denied.  While I wasn’t happy with the outcome, I would be more upset if FDA said yes and I wasn’t invested.  Thus, $AMRN was a worthy risk that didn’t work out.  Moving on.

Btw, I sold all $AMRN at the open to close the chapter on this investment thesis.  There are too many baggage for $AMRN to carry without the help of the label expansion from the SPA that was denied.  The Reduce-It trial is expensive and the loan is still out there.  Somehow, I’ve got a feeling that the FDA has decided they don’t care about the Reduce-It trial and they want $AMRN to kill it.  The whole point of the original SPA agreement was that it would allow Amarin to fund the Reduce-It trial with the label expansion if the Anchor trial passed.  Perhaps, the FDA wants the BP at the U.S. to buy out Amarin for a song so that all revenues generate will remain at the U.S.A.  We are talking about protectionism at play here.  Why didn’t I see this before?

Oh well.  There is other possibility for Amarin to rise out of its current dilemma by finding a partner of its own choosing instead of being forced to accept the low ball offers from the U.S. BPs.  If Amarin can persist to survive intact to complete the Reduce-It trial, a successful result will propel this company into multi-billion company in an instance.  I’ll definitely keep an eye on this company and be ready to jump back in.

With the free cash after selling $AMRN, I added some $LRAD.  I also added a bit more $ORBC.  The reversal of fortune on $AMRN caused me to review my $HYGS holdings.  I decided to reduce my over-exposed position giving its current mini-downtrend.  I was fortunate to get out at breakeven.

$DMRC corrected some after two days of gains.

 

The above weekly chart shows a green bar at the bottom of the trend. There is a high probability a bounce is in the card.  If it bounces from here, I may add some more with the free cash available.

$ORBC also exhibited a weekly green bar to close the week.

Any positive news on the operational status of the recently launched satellites will give this one nice pop and start an uptrend going.

$LRAD is still meandering around the consolidation area.  Price is still on an uptrend line albeit the angle of the uptrend line has declined slightly.

The slight decline this week has been in low volume.  What prompted me to add more $LRAD today was due to the fact that price did not go down despite a negative general market downturn.  Let’s see if there is news next week to wake this one up again.

$HYGS was still struggling to find its bottom.

Although price is still within the 79 & 89 MA lines, I’m still holding too much position and I didn’t want to risk more drawdown after my port absorbed the $AMRN losses and gave back of gain. Thus, I sold down my position size to about half of original size.  Also notice that price could not climb above the 5 MA line today.

Needless to day, my port gave back a whopping 3.7% for a failed thesis and YTD gain is now at 8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, HYGS and 13% cash.

From my other account:

I dumped my $AMRN $2 Jan 2015 call option for a song since I figured something is better than nothing if I continued to hold. Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.

My 2 cents.

 

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These days, the market is acting like a basketball on a tub of water.  No matter how hard the bear pushed it down, it would pop right back up.

Another green bar to close the day.  Now, can it close above the 5 & 15 MA lines tomorrow?  Look like the 5 MA line is about to turn back up above the 15 MA line.

Today, three stocks were up with two down; but due to a steeper drop by $AMRN, my port dropped 0.7%.

Price dropped and touched the 89 MA line before bouncing back up.  At this stage, as I’ve mentioned yesterday, it doesn’t matter if price is at $2.30 or $1.81; what matter is what the FDC decides.  Unless you are a short-term trader, today plunge makes no difference.

$DMRC continued to bounce.

Thanks for that ’cause it helped cushion the $AMRN drawdown.  With a bullish engulfment bar yesterday and a follow-up rally today, the probability of a bottom increases another notch.

$ORBC also climbed back near the 79 & 89 MA lines.

If they can move above those two lines, then $ORBC will be in good shape.

With $DMRC and $ORBC gains cushioned against $LRAD and $AMRN drops today, my port gave back 0.7%.  YTD gain is now at 11.7%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

Still holding $FITX, $LRAD, $CLDX, and $AMRN Jan 2014 $2 call option.

My 2 cents.

 

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Market took a dive into the water at the open and then swam back to the surface to bake under the sun.

Now, if price can close above the 5 and 15 MA tomorrow, then we will have a bona-fide bounce.  In all likelihood, the 5 MA will now turn back up after touching the 15 MA line.

My port followed the market to the teeth.  Early morning my port was underwater with $LRAD, $HYGS, $ORBC swallowing gulp of water. Later on, both $LRAD and $HYGS swam back up nicely with $ORBC still down.

Meanwhile $DMRC finally pull its weight after such a long time trekking down the hill.  It actually saved the day by being up 7.9% for the day.

 

Could it be the bottom now?  Who know.  I’m still fully committed to $DMRC’s Digimarc barcode technology.  I truly believe it will see its day in the worldwide platform; the same way I’ve been holding $LRAD all these years believing its technology will finally be recognized.

$HYGS also bounced off the 79 MA line and ended with a green bar.

There is a good chance the bounce will continue due to the magical quality of the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$AMRN continued to struggle to stay above $2.

The battle raged on but was really pointless ’cause the real catalyst is essentially the FDA decision.

Thanks to $DMRC stellar performance to save the day, my port gained back 1.5% with YTD gain at 12.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

I bought back $CLDX in the morning due to its ability to hold positive while most other stocks were taking a beating.  It was a good decision since price closed higher than I bought.

Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.  I also bought $AMRN $2 Jan 2013 call options awhile ago which I’d forgotten to mention before.

My 2 cents.

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Market finally turned the corner to the downside after a month of rally.

A healthy correction is what I’ll call it at this time.  It is definitely too early to call this a top.

Meanwhile my port got slammed with four stocks down and one up.

I practically gave back all gain for $HYGS.  Although I initially bought this at $18+, my averaging up raised my average price.

This one is a tough one to swallow in the name of fundamentally hold.  Price is still at the support level next to the 79 MA line.

$AMRN and $ORBC, although down, are still holding its ground waiting for the fundamentally story to develop in mid-September.

$DMRC continued to sink…

$LRAD was a shiny star by closing on the positive side; but it was too little to help offset the losses.  My port gave back another 2.4% with YTD gain at 10.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

Sold $CLDX to take small losses. Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.

My 2 cents.

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While it seemed that the market was down but it really was just a neutral day.

Look at the daily chart above, it was a flat day despite a red bar.

I had three stocks down and two up for the day.

$LRAD continued to correct for the 3rd trading day.

I believe that it will start to bounce off the uptrend line tomorrow.  After hectic weeks of strong upswing, the recent corrections were expected so I’m not concerned.

$DMRC took a beating early in the day but made a gallant came back to reduce the loss before closing.

Now, with a nice long-tail bar formed today, we “may” just see the bottom.  Taking out today high later this week will at least confirm a bounce from here.

$HYGS gave back yesterday gain while $ORBC continued to inch higher.  But the star of the day is, of course, $AMRN.

$AMRN finally broke out of $2 and filled the gap from late January of this year.  This is a significant event for it shows that the sentiment has shifted back to the positive side.  All eyes are on the FDA decision that may come next week if not this week.

Due to getting hit hard on $LRAD and $HYGS but cushioned by gain on $AMRN, my port gave back 1.8%.  YTD gain is now at 13.3%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

I sold $KGJI and bought $CLDX.  Since this is a trading account, I tend to move things around more easily.  Talking about this being a trading account, I’ve yet to kick myself for not taking profit on $LRAD when it went all the way to $3.88.  But hindsight had a way of making a fool out of us; so I’m not going to dwell on it since the long-term prospect is still very good here.

My 2 cents.

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Market started off on the wrong foot but found its way back to the top.

On the daily chart above, you would think the bull roared back from almost falling off the cliff.  But when you look at the weekly chart below, it is just another up week.

And the bull marches on.

Today my port had a close call with three up and two down.

$HYGS, $ORBC, and $AMRN managed to bounce back nicely after starting poorly from the open.

$HYGS ended the week slightly higher than last week close.

Price bounced off the 89 MA support line after touching it this morning is further proof of the magical quality in the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$ORBC also bounced off the long-term support line.

As we approach mid-Sept, price can see $7 in a New York minute when news of full operation of all new satellites is released.

$AMRN closed strong despite the pull from the bear during the week.

Also with a catalyst event in mid-Sept, price may shoot up if FDA reflects a positive attitude toward Vascepa.

$DMRC ended the week on the weak side.

 

Oh well, nothing for me to do but to wait.

While $LRAD was down today, I like the way it came back from the low of the day.

See how price bounced off the 15 MA line and closed near the resistance/support at $3.36?  The way I see it, this rally is far from over.

Thanks to the rally from three stocks, the gains were enough to offset the drawdown from $DMRC and $LRAD to get a breakeven for my port.  Thus, YTD gain remains unchanged at 15.1%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

I sold $KNDI for small losses.  I also picked up some $KGJI at $1.32 looking for a bounce. Because I got the dividend from the main account, I’m willing to give this one another chance over here.

See how today low bounced off the 89 MA line?  This was why I bought $KGJI for the bounce.

Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.

My 2 cents.

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Market traded up first half of the day and then closed underwater to end the day.

It is still too early to call this recent minor corrections a change of trend.  As long as price continue to trade above the 15 MA line, the bull trend is still intact.

Meanwhile, a lot of stocks were trading down.  My port is no exception.

$LRAD gave back some more gain.

Price now traded near the support of $3.36.  It will be interesting to see if this new support can hold.  Nevertheless, while price took out yesterday low, price is still trading above the 5 MA line as well as the new support.  The recent minor uptrend bar has not been violated yet.  Also notice that the volume on the last four trading days increased on a stair step fashion with today volume significantly lower.  This could mean that more new buyers came in than getting out.

$HYGS also corrected.

Since price is still above the 89 MA support line, today correction may be a simple hiccup.

$ORBC finally broke thru the consolidation range but it went the wrong way.

Price is now at long-term support.  Let’s see if it can bounce tomorrow.  We are getting close to mid-Sept when the new satellites are supposed to be in operational mode.  Price may climb back if this prove to be the case.

Today, $DMRC and $AMRN saved the day by closing higher to help offset the losses.

Today Gateway Conference sparked some interest in $DMRC with price closing higher.

If enough new investors like what they saw today, price may begin a slow climb from here.

Renew hope of a positive FDC outcome might be the reason for $AMRN to bounce back up today.

Price bounced directly from the 15 MA line.  When price can bounce from these 5 & 15 MA lines, it usually means the bull trend is very much intact.

Despite positive closes on two stocks, drawdown on two of my largest positions (LRAD and HYGS) were too much to offset. Thus, my port gave back 2.8% with YTD gain at 15.1%.

From my other account:

I bought $KNDI for a bounce.  I’m still holding at today close since the losses are small.  If price doesn’t bounce tomorrow, I may cut losses instead of carrying it over the weekend.

My 2 cents.

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Today a tidal wave of cold water splashed across the private fences and wetted practically everyone on the lawn.

Thus, the jolly mood was ruined for some while others opened their arms to welcome the sudden cold water shock over their whole body.

Not unlike the party-goers above, I’ve got three turning reds while the other twos enjoyed their green lawns.

$LRAD hit the ground running hard.  Price shot up to the high of $3.88 before being hit by the tidal wave.

What we ended up with is a bar with a tall tail on the northside.  I never like this kind of bar for it has the potential to call for a top.  However, this type of bar needs to be confirmed before it can be considered a top.  There has to be lower-low bars following today bar to signify a downward bias.  Until then, the bull trend is still on.  Price can easily trade inside today bar to build another consolidation phase before heading up again.  Let’s see how price trades tomorrow.  While gave back a lot of gain today; $LRAD still managed to keep its head above water despite the tidal wave.

$HYGS also continued to bounce.

Giving today situation, its ability to stay green reflected a bullish stance.

Unfortunately, $DMRC, $ORBC, and $AMRN could not handle the cold splash so they all went negative.

Thanks to $LRAD and $HYGS for being in a good mood, my port gained 0.9% with YTD gain at 17.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

Due to tidal wave, I dumped $IBIO for tiny losses.  Still waiting for Health Canada approval for $FITX.

My 2 cents.

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