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Today Portfolio Adjustment (03-18-2013)

At the open, SP500 was down only -14 when the night before it was -22+; therefore, it was actually a bullish open if you compared to last night. Nevertheless, after watching for a few minutes, I decided to sell the uranium based stocks first because these are usually the most susceptible during an international crisis.

Then I sold $HW simply because I believed the odd of profit-taking was high on this one during a general market correction.

Next, I put a protective stop on $BBRY under the Friday low but it got stopped out in no time.

$CGEN had been weak since I bought so I didn’t want to hold this one any longer especially in a market correction; thus, I just placed my sell order in pieces to sell the rest but was surprised I got some good fills as opposed to tanking the price.

Figuring that since I sold $CGEN, I might as well lighten up my biotech holding by selling $PACB as well.

I also felt I was over-weighted on $SYZM, carrying $CDXS seemed excessive so out it went.

$SZYM rallied first and I was impressed; then later it began to sell off back to even for the day. I decided it was time to lighten up so I could buy it back cheap later; so I sold 38% of my position.

Slowly the market began to turn.

Seeing that there was no 200 pts drop and that the SPY was actually moving up, I decided to buy back my $DNN for a price below my sales price this morning.

Then I saw the bounce on $DCTH and thought it was a good time to jump back in. There is only about a month and a half before FDA result, so I figured that this bounce could be the start of the next rally.

$CUR also looked good on the chart so I bought.

$IMUC was struggling but it still looked solid; so I leave it alone.

$BBRY went over $15 after I was stopped out so I bought back starter position after it came back to low $15.

I was half expecting $PACB to collapse but it didn’t; so I bought it back since it was forming a doji bar. A doji bar on top of the 79 & 89 ma looks like a possible turning point to me.

I read up some documents over the weekend on $TINY and I’m convinced that this may be the year for $TINY to shine. Thus, I increased my position size by 62%. Basically, the money I salvaged from my sales of $USU was piled into $TINY.

$AAPL is the only shining stock in my portfolio today.

Today down market is not a good day for my two large position trades ($LRAD & $AMRN); thus, my portfolio is now taking heat. However, I usually don’t pay much attention to my portfolio balance when it is the position trades that drag it down since I consider it as an expected draw-down.

However, I’ll have major issue if my portfolio is dragged down by my swing trades position. If this is the case, that means I’m not cutting loss when I should be. Since I don’t have any expectation of my swing trades making killer move, so I don’t try to hold it when I’m losing.

On the other hand, I expect that when my position trades make the big move, it will more than cover all the paper loss and more.

With the Dow closing less than 100 points today, I think we have a healthy correction. so, let’s get on with taking out the Giant Wall 2 please.

Currently holding $LRAD, $AMRN, $AAPL, $TINY,$SZYM, $DCTH, $DNN, $IMUC, $CUR, $PACB, $BBRY and 25% cash.

My 2 cents.

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Why Invest in Nanotechnology?

Below is the thesis from Harris & Harris Group, Inc. ($TINY).

***Notice that it was published in Spring of 2009.


Source: http://www.hhvc.com/docs/press-center/why-invest-in-nanotechnology-.pdf

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Here comes the bounce ($DCTH & $CUR)

The charts below convince me to buy back:



For $DCTH above, do you see how the price action is now staying above both two support lines.  There is still the catalyst of May FDA respond; so a possible rally still exists.



I like the fact that price action is getting back on top of the down trendline.  Look like it is forming the 3rd wave up.  Remember, the 3rd wave of the Elliott Wave Theory is usually the longest wave of the five waves…

My 2 cents.

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You can’t help but be impressed with this morning comeback!

I’m duly impressed.

After selling some of my weak positions in the morning, I sat and watched to see if the bombs were still exploding here and there.  Surprisingly, the explosion began to die down and instead I heard roaring of the crowd.  For a moment there, I thought I was in the midst of a stock exchange hearing “buy! buy! buy!”.

With that kind of chanting, I’ve to buy something back as well!

I bought back $DNN (below what I sold for! High-Five!); $PACB, $BBRY.

I also bought $DCTH and $CUR (again!) because the price action looks like the bouncing is happening.

I added to $TINY.

Take a look at the daily $SPY chart below:

Price did not even reach my projected red-arrow price but instead proceeded to head up to create a nice green bar.  Isn’t that a beauty?  What I like is the fact that price action has immediately climbed back above the Giant Wall 1 proving that Wall 1 is indeud a solid support here.



My 2 cents.

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Giant Wall 2 resistance proves resilient

Just when we thought taking out the Giant Wall 2 (GW2) established back in October 2007 was a done deal, we are now getting slammed with another European conundrum.  S&P500 currently is printing a 17 points down or a negative 1.1% change.  Apply this 1.1% against the SPY’s close of $155.83 last Friday and we come up with $154.12.

If you look at the chart below, you can see the projected price of $154.12  (red arrow) is directly below Giant Wall 1 resistance ($154.94).   Notice that the 38.2% fib retracement is just a bit below the red arrow; it may mean some support there.


Can the Fed remedy this correction next week?  Will there be a huge rally waiting to burst thru the GW2?  Well, can it happens or are we simply exercising a self-fulfilling prophecy of topping out at major prior resistance?  Let’s not jump the gun yet; for price can still restore back to normalcy when market opens tomorrow morning   We’ve seen it happens before.  Until then, I’m going back to reading my book…

My 2 cents.

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Changing your thought pattern regarding taking losses

Let’s be real.  Taking losses when you are trading and/or investing is as normal as taking a dump.  Yes, that is right.  It is an essential part of investing and speculating.

So what is stopping most of us from taking loss when it is clear as day that our investment/trading thesis is not working?


Oh dear!

Hope, my dear friends, is a loaded word in the stock market.  So loaded that it can blow up on your face.

We should have faith!

I have heard that one before…

ok ok…  you can’t discount faith entirely since, after all, I do have faith in my AMRN, LRAD, & SZYM investments.

However, there is one thing I also hold closer to my chest more than faith, an open mind when it comes to reviewing evidence or circumstantial facts that can debunk the faith I’ve in my investments.  Even price action, when the direction is opposite to my thesis, is a kind of fact that I’ve to take into consideration.  When you think about it, if price action collapses severely in absence of news, usually that means some big holders are unloading pronto based on  information we don’t have; otherwise, any bear program will be countered by big players waiting for an opportunity to  buy cheap at support level.

Keeping an open mind when you are deep in your hope and faith is not an easy task since you are in danger of being infatuated with the stock.  In other words, you are in danger of being possessed.  Yes, you heard me.  Possessed by a strong feeling that your stock can do no wrong.  I’ll revisit this topic in another post.

So how do we get ourselves out of this stranglehold of not being able to take loss when you know you should?

By changing your thought pattern regarding taking loss.

Instead of worrying about missing the boat by getting out to take your loss, you can focus on one (or several) of the followings:

1) get out now so you can buy back cheaper (I use this thought most of the times)

2) get out now before you spill more blood (I use this thought on my $USU position)

3) get out now so you can use the cash to buy another stock that is going up (I use this from time to time)

4) get out now to take a break from the stress (I use this one recently when I had a minor panic attack)

5) get out now because you have a planned vacation to take (don’t let this losing trade ruin your holiday)

If you can shift your thought to one or several of the above instead of focusing on your fear of missing the bounce after you are out, you are already ahead of the crowd.

Since taking loss is very much part of the trading/investing process, learn to be the one to take control of the process instead of being forced on you at your maximum pain level.  In other words, take that loss when it is still small.

If you don’t mind my using this analogy, you control when you take a dump (otherwise, it will be an ugly accident!); then why not control when you take a loss when it hurts the least?  Remember, how you hurt is personal, my small hurt may be your giant hurt or vice versa; therefore, you get to set YOUR small hurt loss-taking level.

Btw, your definition of small loss can also vary depend on whether it is a scalper, a swing trade, or a position trade.

Believe me, from my experience, once you are used to taking small losses, you will love it and will not think twice taking them as time passes.  Yes, even in the face of seeing some bounce without you on board, you won’t be faded.  You know why?  That is because you will also have witnessed multiple times how taking small losses have saved you from much bigger losses, probably more times than you see price takes off without you after you’ve sold.

My witness of the $DCTH and $USU continuing downtrend last week after I’ve taken my losses proves my point.

My 2 cents.

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This is what you may feel when you follow someone’s trading style that is not your own

Watch the video first and you will know what I mean.

Imagine the race-car driver is the trader you follow.  Can you handle his driving style (trading style) in the Camaro (type of stock)?

You see how the race-car driver spins the car so skillfully (aka cut his loss or lock in profit quickly) when he comes to an obstacle (aka consolidating price action or sudden spike up in volatility) that appear in the front?  Meanwhile, all you can do is scream, “We are going to crash!  It’s too late!  Help!” (aka “I can’t take my loss now, I want my money back! or “If I take profit now, I’ll miss the boat when the stock keeps going up!”)

That is why when you see someone throws out a few picks, you need to find one that “fits” your personal style.  Not all stocks are treated equal.  Believe it or not, stock does exhibit personality.  You just need to know its mood to decide when is the right time to buy or sell.

I will delve deeper on this topic next time.

My 2 cents.

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Today Portfolio Adjustment (03-15-2013)

In the morning, I bought a starter position on $BBRY below $15 and put a stop below the low of the day; so far, I haven’t been stopped out yet.  This is good news.  If it starts to move up next week, I’ll add more.  For some reason, I believe in the come-back of $BBRY; maybe because Blackberry products has always been a quality products used by millions before $AAPL iphone dethrones them.

$AAPL was strong all day despite the Samsung Galaxy S4 fanfare. That suit me just fine since I’m already long. I actually added more since price action took out the $439 previous 3/11 pivot high. Will I be able to ride this one all the WAY up this time? Hmmm… I’ll be bringing my trailing stop with me on this one.

I also bought back $PACB since I saw the bounce on the chart. Unlike $DCTH which continues to head south due to the heavy burden of dilution, $PACB doesn’t have that baggage.

There were some bids at CGEN so I peeled another layer off by selling some more to reduce my position size. Yes, I took loss on that as well.

Remember, to take loss on your own term means you are salvaging back your cash for other opportunities. By taking loss on both $DCTH & $PACB yesterday, I save myself from further grief with $DCTH but still have the ability to get back in $PACB for the bounce.

Did you see how $USU tanked deeper in the last hour today?  This is further proof that taking loss earlier can save your ass big times.  Stop worry about selling at the bottom because you can always buy back (albeit a bit higher price, so what?).  Learn to worry how much more you can get hurt; by thinking this way, you can move quickly to cut your loss sooner.

And I started to build my position on $TINY. I believe nanotechnology may be replacing the 3D printer as the next popular science focus. Did you see how $DDD fall from the grace. Ouchie for those who still holds it.

I’m thinking of replacing my former $USU position play with $TINY. Let see how it goes.

Since $CDXS is related to $SZYM, both were disappointing today but I can understand the hesitation of the market participants in this sector. More patience is needed. I’ve learned my lesson in trading this one too often. Now, these two “may” be another longer term hold. Not because I don’t want to take loss (my loss is insignificant at this point) but to allow more room for this to move. The more we move into the future, the more REAL $SZYM is.  This is due to the availability of facilities coming online to produce the bio-fuel in size. In other words, I’m going to sit through the volatility for the coming wake-up call to higher price.

$HW continues its slow ascend; therefore no action is required.

All uranium positions are doing great today, especially $DNN, so no action is required.

Both $LRAD & $AMRN are up; so my portfolio are coming back up slowly.

Currently holding:


My 2 cents.

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Are we ready for nanotechnology?

I am!

I’m buying and storing $TINY starting today.  This may have to be a longer term hold to give it room to flex.  Perhaps a replacement of my former $USU position trade?

Take a look at the $TINY daily chart below:


Price action has just been recovering from a correction.  Is it ready for the next leg up?

Weekly chart below shows that price action has broken out of the intermediate-term downtrend line and is consolidating currently.  I like to see the weekly price bar to stay within the Andrew Fork uptrend lines.


Monthly chart below shows that $TINY has come a long way from the top.  Is it ready to head back up?


If nanotechnology is coming back, we may be seeing a bottom here.

Btw, this is why I bought $HW also.  $HW apparently has a division that owns patents on certain nanotechnology.  $HW is one of the company that make up the composition for ETF $PXN (PowerShares Lux Nanotech Portfolio).

What does the daily chart on $PXN look like below? My guess is that it is ready to take out the resistance line soon.


My 2 cents.

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