Today Portfolio Adjustment (05-02-2013)

Today was a wake-up call day.

Market opened higher and I saw $FB opened higher as well.  I’ve been watching $FB for the last few days but decide to hold off buying until earning comes out.  With good positive AD revenues increase, price action may as well begin an uptrend from here.  Giving positive price action today, I bought a starter position in the morning and added more later.

$AAPL was looking strong so I bought a starter position.  With trend continuing on the upside, I added more later.  However, by end of day, I’m back to breakeven position.  I’ll see what happen tomorrow before deciding to keep or sell.

I think I’ve a fixation on $BCRX.  Somehow, I keep thinking that this one will just blow up to the upside one day without warning; so I keep looking for reason to buy back shares I’ve sold to cut losses.  I added a few times again today ’cause price was acting like it wanted to go up all morning.  I’m still holding the positions I added today.

$GLUU gapped down and continued to go lower until it bounces off the support level at $2.75.  I bought starter position and later added more.  However, by market close, I got nervous over the earnings announcement (thanks to $MELA), I decided to unload 70% of my holdings from today purchase just to be on the safe side.

I was stopped out of my $$RBCN today for small losses.

$SZYM was acting very strong near the end of the day and I bought more when price went over $9.00.  This stock is now my third largest position in the portfolio.

After reviewing the smart money top pick list, I found $CVI to be an attractive buy; therefore, I bought a starter position to see if price can climb back up to the $60 area.  I’ll add more if price action continue to climb.

$AMRN was the big elephant today.  Practically, the gain for the last three days was completely removed today.  Pretty soon, I will have to face the prospect of selling out my swing trade position.  What I had forgotten was that while I bought the swing trade position at the $6.4x area, I didn’t sell the swing trade position for profit when price action started to turn from $7.5x..  There is always the danger of mixing the swing trade with long-term position trade. I tend to get a bit more “greedy” to ride the swing trade beyond the proper swing trade protocol.  Looking back, if I never have any position trade, I’ll be doing really good for the year.  But then, I won’t be hitting any big win anytime soon either.  It is so easy for my mind(s) to play the doubting game; thus it is important that I write down all my thought here so that I can see what is going on here.

Anyway, the focus is on what I need to do when $AMRN continues to head lower.  I need to protect myself by getting out of my swing trade when my stops are hit.  This is the wake-up call.

Current holdings:

AMRN, LRAD, SZYM, TINY, AAPL, FB, BCRX, CVI, GLUU and 26% cash.

@tradingmy2cents

The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

 

Comments »

Awhile ago, I did an analysis of The Fly’s Smart Money Top Pick list and one of the stock was $CVI.

This morning $CVI announced positive earning result and price zoomed up accordingly.  By the time I checked the chart later in the day, I was missed the run-up.  Nevertheless, after analyzing the chart a bit more, it is my contention that today is just the beginning of an uptrend.  I believe $CVI will test the previous high of $62.50 in the near future if general market continues to rally.

Take a look at the $CVI daily chart below:

Today solid green bar is a good mojo sign and there is also a bullish divergence in the momentum indicator below. LBR indicator reflects a favorable turning the corner with the fast line getting ready to breakout of the mid-line.

I bought a starter position and will add if price continues to advance in the near future.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Today price action negates the hanging man bearish pattern confirmation bar yesterday by not continuing on the down trend; instead, it is forming a bullish harami instead.

Take a look at the daily $SPY chart below:

The bull seems to be still in complete control so far…

My 2 cents.

Comments »

$GLUU has a gift for me today.  After I sold to cut losses yesterday for small losses, it gapped down this morning and continued to head to the support line pronto.  Seeing that it bounced off the support line (see yellow line on chart below), I started to build my position.

Below is the daily $GLUU chart:

See how the yellow line tracked all the way back to the support in Feb and how prices reacted to the yellow lines since then?  It was almost like a magic line.  My action on $GLUU is further proof that cutting losses quickly can result in opportunity to buy back the stock cheaper.

However, nothing is guarantee, my stop will be below the yellow line.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Today was a puke out day.

Market opened down and everything else followed thru.

First order of the day, I checked $MELA to see if there were support to drive the price backup from a gap down.  After a few minutes, I decided there were not enough buyers to push it up; so I sold my shares for losses.  Again, I picked the wrong horse so I had to accept this as part of the loss.  This loss was not a small losses like the normal quick losses I took since I was holding it thru the earning play.  Nevertheless, it was still an acceptable loss that I could put it behind me easily.  It was a good thing I sold 50% of the position before close yesterday.

Next, I sold $GLUU and $CERS since their price action was horrible in the morning.

$BCRX was also not acting well and I was way overloaded from the breakout above $2 yesterday.  Thus, I’ve no choice but to reduce my position size to cut losses and minimize exposure.  I’m still keeping  1/3 of the original position size on this one.

$SZYM proved me wrong again for jumping back in two days ago.  Oh well, I need to accept my own responsibility for being “impatient and greedy”; so I dumped 85% of my position early in the morning to cut losses and minimize exposure.  Later on when price stabilized, I bought some back to maintain a mid-size position on this one.

$AAPL was strong at first but it couldn’t handle the overall bearish sentiment; after looking at the chart, I decided to take my profit and run for now.

$RBCN looked very attractive at $6.9x level and price seemed stabilized around there; I decided to take this opportunity to jump back in for a starter position.  So far, I’m still in the green.

Current holdings:

AMRN, LRAD, SZYM, TINY, RBCN, BCRX and 42% cash.

@tradingmy2cents

The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

 

Comments »

It is my duty to inform you that today $SPY price action constitutes a confirmation of yesterday bearish hanging man candlestick pattern.

Take a look at the daily chart below.  Yesterday price action tried but could not take out the high of 04/11/2013 and a hanging man candlestick pattern was formed.  Today down day confirms the bearish sentimental.  Be wary of further downtrend this week.

Below is the primer on Hanging Man candlestick pattern:

Be safe!

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Today I took my medicine and it tasted quite bitter.  These were liquid medicines so I would have to suffer the taste of it.

Below is a list of my medicines (from mild taste to yucky, err..):

$DNDN

$GLUU

$CERS

$DNN

$MELA

$BCRX

$SZYM

I cut losses from the above medicines.  Believe it or not, after the medicine, I feel a whole lot better!

Have you taken your medicine yet?  What?  None of my business.  Oh, ok… hey, take it easy, no need to give me the evil eyes…

Raised my cash level to 42%

My 2 cents.

 

Comments »

Today was a big hug and a slap on the face.

Market was down in the morning but I seemed to pay less attention to what $SPY was doing these days.

My focus was on $GLUU and $BCRX.

$GLUU opened a little bit higher and I felt the urge to buy back my shares.  I noticed that even though yesterday was a down day, it still has a higher low compared to the day before.  With this kind of thinking, I decided to buy back $GLUU with a stop below yesterday low which was a low risk trade for me.  By end of day, I was not stopped out.

$BCRX was acting strong and I added twice during the day.  Somehow, the momentum went out of gas but price still closed above $2.00.  I’ll decide what to do with this one tomorrow.

After browsing around the watchlist, I decided to buy starter position on $DNDN and $DNN.  $DNDN because the chart looked bouncy and $DNN because $CCJ was up at the time and the Russian supply of military grade uranium for conversion to commercial use would cease to be available sometimes in the 2nd half of the year.  I later added a bit more to $DNN.

$AMRN was going strong all morning and when it took out the high made in April 23rd, I added a bit more to my swing trade position.

$AAPL was doing great so I left it alone.

$SZYM was on a defensive all day and I wasn’t thrilled about the price action at all.  I sold out my position two days ago to lock in some nice gain but then I felt the urge to buy them back.  Now I have to deal with this correction all over again.  Why did I have to buy them back? Why?  Why?  Ok, enough of my whining.  Sometimes, I’ve to let my ego complains a bit so that it can settle back into the background. (grin)

$MELA.  Mela, Mela…  what’ve I done to you that you’ve to slap me on the face?  Before closing, price dropped quite a bit when I wasn’t looking.  However, after I was made aware of it, I dumped 50% of my position to cut my losses.  With the earnings numbers out, after hours price tanked quite a bit.  Somehow, I thought their business model was starting to kick in gear.  Depend on price action tomorrow morning, I may just buy back some share for intermediate term hold.  Let’s see how it goes tomorrow morning.

Current holdings:

AMRN, LRAD, SZYM, TINY, AAPL, BCRX, GLUU, DNN, MELA, CERS, DNDN and 21% cash.

@tradingmy2cents

The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

Comments »

Most of you all know that I’m long $AMRN from last year and have to sit through the drawdown all because FDA could not decide on the NCE (new chemical entity) status on the almost pure EPA chemical ingredient in $AMRN’s new drug Vascepa.  Month after month of no approval and with $AMRN taking the path to self-distribution of Vascepa instead of going thru the Big Pharmaceutical company, price continued to head south.  It was because I did not average down during the drawdown period that I could tolerate the temporary setback on my long-term position trade.

As in any price movement based on human emotion, there will come a point where a bottom or a top can be called on for a speculative play.  What most people don’t realize is that while picking bottom or top can be akin to playing with fire, it is actually a low risk trade if you’ve done your homework correctly.  Please refer to my past post on the art of catching a falling knife.

Remember this stock market wisdom- Buy low and sell high?

How do you propose to buy low when you are not trying to pick a bottom?

As I mentioned before, the only way I will add to underwater long-term position is when I play the added shares as a swing trade.  Meaning that I will have stops in place to protect myself if price head the wrong way.  These stops are non-negotiable; otherwise, I’ll just be kidding myself into averaging down to my core position.

Last Tuesday when $AMRN announced the FDA has accepted its Supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) seeking approval for the marketing and sale of Vascepa^(R) (icosapent ethyl) capsules for use as an adjunct to diet in the treatment of adult patients with high triglycerides (TG >=200 mg/dL, price gapped up but turned around and headed south for a few more days.  I knew then that the bottom was about to set in.   While we won’t hear from FDA regarding the approval of this sNDA until Dec of this year, it is considered a game-changer catalyst that can propel $AMRN to be a very attractive take-over target.

There are support level from Dec 2011 low of $5.99 and price last week has dropped down to low of $6.34 before heading back up.  While I didn’t buy the swing trade position at the low, I bought them around $6.4x.  The way I see it, the risk/reward for the swing trade is excellent.  My stop was below $5.99 and I’m only risking about $0.45 cent per share for a return that has the potential to be multiple times of the risk.

Below is the weekly $AMRN chart.  Notice that last week bar is a doji.  A doji at the bottom near a support has a high probability of forming a bottom.

Below is the daily $AMRN chart.  Notice that today price action has penetrated the downtrend bar.

Needless to say, I’m close to double-up my position on $AMRN with my swing trade position.  If price never look back, these swing trade position will become part of my core position.  Perhaps, this drawdown is really a gift in disguise for me…

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Today was a problem-solving day.

Not because I had a problem with the market but because I had to solve a non-market problem that took all my concentration during market hours.  By the time I solved the problem, Holy Moly! there were only 20 minutes left before market close.

$AAPL opened higher and I knew I had to buy some.  The weekly chart show a Bullish Harami and any open higher than Friday close was a buy.  Take a look at the $AAPL weekly chart below.

The circle area is the Bullish Harami candlestick pattern. Today price action took out the high of last week bar so the probability of $AAPL bottoming is high. I bought a starter position and left it alone.  Later, when my attention came back to the market near the close, I added more $AAPL.

I also wanted to buy back my $SZYM I sold Friday.  I started to accumulate shares in the morning and then later in the day.  I bought back the size I wanted and is satisfied for the day.  Nevertheless, the spinning top candlestick chart formed today was not exactly an endearing pattern I wanted to see.  Let’s see if there is a confirmation for a top tomorrow.  Spinning top needs to be confirmed with down days afterward to considered a top.

$GLUU gapped up but price began to fall during the morning time.  At price got close to the half-way point of Friday bar, I sold to lock in profit.  Later, I went back in for a bounce but it was for naught since I was stopped out for small losses from re-entry point.

$RBCN was heading back up in the morning so I added.  Seeing that price was doing well in the morning, I placed a stop at breakeven not expecting it to be hit.  No!  Price had a bad hiccup and went straight down pretty fast and took out my stop and I didn’t even know I was stopped out until half-hour later since I wasn’t paying attention to it.  Oh well.  Seeing such volatility, I opted to stay away from $RBCN for now.

$BCRX was acting like it wanted to go up so I bought more.  I added more later to bring it to the position size I wanted.  Prices action went up later so I’m fine for now.

$MELA was having some correction today but I decided to keep my shares since price action hasn’t broken thru the $1.27 support line.  $MELA is reporting tomorrow; therefore, I’m basically holding this one thru earnings.

$CERS was showing strength in the morning so I decided to buy a small starter position so I don’t forget it.

Not much going on today since I didn’t have much time to stay with the market.

Current holdings:

AMRN, LRAD, SZYM, TINY, AAPL, MELA, BCRX, CERS and 32% cash.

My 2 cents.

@tradingmy2cents

The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

Comments »