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Today Portfolio Adjustment (05-30-2013)

Today was a gold fever day.

Market opened neutral and then took off afterward.

$NUGT gapped up beautifully and I waited.  After a couple of bars (5m chart), I decided to take profit before any possible retracement.  However, price took off not long after I took profit so I bought my shares back after the intra-day high was taken out.  Price was strong in the morning and I was quickly in the money on my re-entry.  Later on, I peeled off some shares to lock in profit but I also keep some for a longer-term play.  Price continued to stay strong all day.

As a result of my taking some shares off $NUGT, I decided to buy some gold minings stock for replacement.  I chose $ABX due to its large size.  The chart looked good for a possible near term breakout.

$UNXL was acting positive in the morning so I bought some shares.  Unfortunately, price action was not doing well later in the day.  I had a mental stop below yesterday low but price did not close below that today.  Instead, price recovered a bit so I decided to hold it for tomorrow.

$TSLA price action took out half-way point of yesterday bar, so I closed out my put option for a small losses.  Later when price action dropped below $105 (put strike price) and turned negative for the day, I bought the put option back.  I’m still holding it for tomorrow price action.

I was watching $CRIS and like the bounce-like pattern on the chart so I decided to buy some for the bounce.  I later added more $CRIS when price continued to climb up.

I believe long-term interest rate will continue to go up so I added more $TBF.

$BCRX had a big green bar yesterday but I was suspecting its ability to hold on to the price level.  Today proved that price could hold well and not dropped back to the low of yesterday.  Therefore I bought a starter position to see if it would take off from here.

$AMRN had a strong recovery today so I was glad to jump back in with my swing trade position yesterday.  Whew!

Current holdings:



The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

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Zen catches the $ABX gold fever

Seeing that $NUGT has such a strong morning open and a follow-thru after the gap, I bought a starter position on $ABX to replace some of the $NUGT I sold this morning to lock in profit.

I like $ABX because of the potential breakout on the chart:


If price action can take out the early May high of $21.70, I will add more.  Did you see the higher low formed on May 17th?

The Fly has mentioned the seasonal down-turn of gold minings stock in June which is something not to be taken lightly; however, I feel that the severe downtrend since October of last year has thrown this seasonal pattern out of whack.  Nevertheless, I will be mindful of any sudden drop in price.

My 2 cents.

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Today Portfolio Adjustment (05-29-2013)

Today was a recovery day.

Market opened down but the stocks I like showed recovery.

The first thing I did was to dump my $EBAY position to take the small losses.  Once that was out of the way, I looked at $APRI.

$APRI showed strength in the morning so I bought back some position I sold yesterday.  By day end when I didn’t see surprised waterfall price action, I bought back the rest of the shares to bring my position back to full size.

$AMRN bounced in the morning so I bought a starter position on my swing trade.  By the afternoon, I decided to buy back the rest of the swing trade position I sold yesterday.  Let’s see if price action will sling back to the upside the rest of the week.

I’ve been watching $NUGT ever since the appearance of the bullish engulfment bar back in May 20th.  With an upside momentum today in the morning, I decided it was time to go back in.  Bought starter position and added twice.  Stopped out on the 3rd add but I bought it back when price action took out $10 resistance line.  Let’s see if price will fly up tomorrow (or not).

I think uranium will soon see the light so I added to my $DNN position.

With $TSLA going thru a parabolic move, I’ve been waiting patiently for a big red bar to happen.  It happened today so I bought starter position on the June 105 put option.  This electric car bubble will either float or sink tomorrow.  I placed my bet.

After years of low interest rate, I think it is time for interest rate to raise its head.  I took the opportunity to buy some $TBF during today minor correction.  If it takes out the resistance line at yesterday high, I will add more.

I bought $AMBA today because I’m convinced the technology behind it will proliferate.  HD video in a small chip is the way to go in our near future.  I believe this is also one of The Fly’s long position.

Current holdings:



The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

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Zen pulls $TSLA electric plug

A housewife has her Tesla Model S towed into the auto mechanic shop in the nearest town where her car broke down.

“Can you fix it in a day?  I don’t want to stay in this town for the night.”

I bought put option on $TSLA to short.  My bet is that the short-squeezed has reached its climax.  If any of you folks who is long $TSLA but hasn’t reached your climax yet, I feel sorry for you. (grin)

Here is a good looking chart that tells me a correction is imminent.  Remember, just because I say so doesn’t mean it is so.


Notice the divergence in the momentum indicator and the high volume today.  I see support around low 80.00.

Edit: I just learn that ChessNWine has a keen analysis on $TSLA as well, it is a must read.

My 2 cents.

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Zen hunts $NUGT for nugget

I still think the bullish engulfment bar we’ve seen on May 20 is the tell-tale sign of a bottom.  Statistically speaking, if the bullish engulfment has not been debunked by price action making new low after a week, the probability of a bottom is increasing.

Take a look at the chart below:


I like to see price action taking out $10 resistance soon to begin the rally back up.

I bought starter positions with stop below yesterday low.

My 2 cents.

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Today Portfolio Adjustment (05-28-2013)

Today was a slaughterhouse day.

Market opened higher and everything was going honky donky, right?

Nope.  Not for me.  I was being cut three ways to sunset.

The first cut was $AMRN.  So $AZN decided to buy $OMTH instead of ponying up a premium for $AMRN.  Well, I think you get what you pay for still apply here.  $OMTH is still a developmental stage company so $AZN has more work to do.  Regardless of what I think or anyone think about the superiority of Vascepa, market did not like the news and punish $AMRN instead.  Who am I to argue?  Therefore, I sold my swing trade position at the $7.5x level which was slightly above my swing trade entry of $7.4x.

The positive spin to this BO from $AZN is that Big Pharmaceutical company is still interested in the fish oil business despite the sloppy Italian study that tried to prove that a low dose fish oil supplemental pill offered no benefit.   I still hold my core $AMRN position and will continue to hold.  Remember I tried to sell my $AMRN position last week looking to buy back cheap but the sellers did not come?   Hindsight speaking, if only I tried that today at the open…  Today action goes to prove that we can try to time the trade but the market does not always cooperate.

My second cut was $APRI.  At first, it started off with a positive bang but then it fell apart later.  While I did not look into the reason why, I could speculate that the public offering for $2.85 was not doing well.  I sold my entire $APRI position to cut losses and moved on.

My third cut was $UNXL.  Again, it started off with a bang on the upside.  Wow!  But being a small float company, sellers came in to drop this one into an abyss.  My stop below the low two trading days ago was triggered and I was stopped out for losses.

$UNXL is a perfect example of the need to beat your own drum.  The Dev’l may still like this one; but don’t forget that the Dev’l has come from a hugely profitable short position on $UNXL before he switches to go long.

On the other hands, I followed the play because the chart looked good for a bounce at the time.  With today price action, my stop was triggered based on my own drum beating regardless of the status of Dev’l’s position.

I bought $NUGT for a bounce play but got stopped out later for small losses.

I bought $EBAY near the open and is still in position since my position is still profitable albeit I gave back paper gain from earlier climb.

I also bought $BPFH from ChessNWine blog post and it was profitable on the get go.  Unfortunately, price staged a waterfall action that stopped me out for a small losses.

I added to $CERS with a limited buy order which got filled in the afternoon (I forgot to post on twitter).  I like $CERS price action and may be moving this trade into the position trade category.  I’m looking for price target to hit at least $8 from here.

Meanwhile, $TINY has a bounce today so let’s see how it behaves the rest of the week.

Current holdings:



The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

(except for the $CERS position I added today which I forgot to post on twitter).

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Where Ego Dares #7: Beating our own drum

Everyone is different and unique; therefore, everyone thought process is different and unique as well.  We can all agree on the same subject, but how our thought processes arrive at the same conclusion is totally different.  Each one of us will react differently if the agreed subject matter changes its form.

It is my thesis that each of our thought process is an energy with its own unique frequency and wave pattern “fingerprint” so to speak. In other words, we all beat our own drum when it comes to how we think. Not only that our thought process is as unique as fingerprint, our overload level or “tilting point” is unique as well.   When we “tilt”, we arrive at the fight or flight mental stage.  This is the mental stage where our ego will bury us with extreme fear (flight/panic) or extreme bravado (fight).  Neither are productive for our portfolio management.

Our natural mind, or our need to be right, set a ceiling for our frequency range as well as its wave amplitude before we tilt.  As long as we don’t tilt, our natural mind will function like a normal mind that will allow room for our trading mind to take over if we are focused enough .  This normal range is what some people call the “comfort zone”. This is why when we meditate, our mind will be further away from our tilting point. However, the moment we stress ourselves out with thought processes such as fear, worry, greed, etc, we exceed our comfort zone and our natural mind will enter into an extreme mental stage which will put our portfolio into jeopardy.

Now, do you understand why we need to beat our own drum when we trade?

Suppose you follow trader X whose personality, tolerance, and experience provide him/her with a tilting point of 7 on a scale of 10.  Meanwhile, your tilting point based on your personality, tolerance, and experience has a level of 5.

What do you think will happen?

Trader X can hold on his trade against drawdown in a calm manner while you are already tilted over with extreme emotional reaction to the drawdown.  There is no telling what kind of revenge trading you will do to the trade which may cause severe damage to your portfolio.  At the end of the stock run, trader X may walk away from the trade with a nice gain while you may already have suffered severe damage to your portfolio due to your tilting.

I like to mention that success in trading does not depending on how high your titling point is.  In fact, the higher your tilting point, the faster you may lose your money if you don’t apply proper money management.

Tilting is the “out-of-control” stage where your decision making is based on extreme emotional thought process. An important part of being successful in trading is your ability to avoid tilting. You can have a tilting point of 3 and still succeed in trading because you have the awareness to trade only the type of investment vehicles that you know won’t push you into tilt mode.   Or you have the awareness to choose a trading style that will help you avoid the tilting point.

Let me give you an example of tilting from my personal experience.

I started my trading journey trading T-Bond in the futures market. Interest rate was dropping and I bought T-bond futures based on someone recommendation.  I made money on my first trade in the futures market and I was hooked.  Having a commodity broker account, I naturally traded other commodities such as pork belly, sugar, orange juice, cotton, SP500, etc  Because of their high leverage, I daytraded these commodities more than I held them for swing trade.   Due to the short-term nature and my lack of discipline at the time, I had a hard time holding to my profit.  If I made money one day, I would end up giving it back sooner or later.  Of all the trading vehicles in the futures market, the SP500 Index futures was the only one that made me tilt.

I tilted only two times during my few years of trading the SP500 and it was two times too many.  Each time I tilted, I would lose about ten times more than I would normally allow myself to lose in a day.  While the amount I lost during tilting did not destroy my portfolio, it was a 15% loss compared to a 1.5% loss.  After I tilted the first time, I had the good sense to stop trading for a few months to take a break.

The trade would start out with SP500 taking a gap down at open.  I would then wait for the bounce to short.  The bounce came and I shorted.  Bang!  Right on the money!  I took profit and waited for the next bounce.  The bounce came again and I shorted again; only this time, price action continued higher.  Before I knew it, I was stopped out for loss that practically took away my earlier gain.  Seeing that it was a gap down at the open, I decided that price action for the SP500 index would eventually go back down again.  So, I picked the next resistance level to short.  Price went up to my sell stop and I got filled for the short trade.  At first, the trade would drop from the resistance and I won back my original gain on paper.  However, this day was unlike any other day, this day I wanted more.  I wanted a waterfall price action because my ego dictated that the SP500 had to fall further down.  So instead of taking my profit on my the 3rd attempt to short, I waited for the price to break the support and drop like a rock. No! Price action bounced from the support and headed higher.  The paper profit I saw vanished in front of my eyes and now I was seeing red.

I didn’t know it then but I was on the verge of tilting.  I got mad at giving back my paper gain so quickly.  So I decided to average down my losses by shorting more contracts.  Lo and behold, price did not fall.  It kept going up!   Suddenly, I was starring at a loss that was three times the size of my earlier gain.  I got really pissed.  Boom!  I tilted over!

I wanted to turn my loss back to gain as soon as possible.  So I figured if price really wanted to go up.  Fine!  I would then covered my shorts with twice the amount of contracts so I could go long.

OK! SP500, you want to go up!  I’m going up with you!  By this time, I didn’t care about my portfolio anymore, all I cared about was to be right about my trade.

Unfortunately, I reversed to go long right at the top of a giant retracement.  Holy F**K!  I was starring at loss that was now six times the size of my morning gain!  My emotion was going full steam.

No Fu*king way!  You are supposed to go up!

So I averaged down and bought more contracts.  But price kept on going down!

By the times I reached my pain threshold, I suffered a 15% loss on the SP500 trades due to revenge trading from tilting.

The 2nd time I tilted over on my SP500 Index future trades, I stopped trading for almost a year to find myself.

When I was ready to trade again, I chose stock trading instead.  It all started because my full service Merrill Lynch broker would recommend a stock and proceeded to lose money for me.  Yes, that was before Merrill Lynch went under and became part of Bank of America.  After multiple times of losing, I decided that I could do better using whatever skills I learned from commodity trading to apply to the stock market.  Lo and behold, probably due to the low leverage in stock trading compared to the high leverage in commodity, I have not experienced tilting ever since.

Now that I’m trading strictly on cash with no margin and with my commitment to avoid averaging down while losing, my odd of tilting is practically zero.  Oh yeah, cutting losses quickly play an important part as well.

The point I’m making is that you have to find your own tilt level and then beat your own drum underneath it .  You need to know how you can trade without tilting.  If you want to pick someone else stock pick, by all mean, but use your own trading style to execute the trade.  Otherwise, you are in danger of tilting.

Don’t worry about how other traders are doing with their multiple stock picks; just focus on the picks that you like.  Just because other traders make money with the picks you shy away doesn’t mean you miss your chance.  You may suffer tilting from other traders’ pick simply because the stocks are not right for your trading style. You must find the picks that you feel are aligning to the rhythm of your own drum beating.

Sometimes you may not have done the revenge trading like I had done with the SP500; but if you are sitting on a losing trade that make you nervous everyday, you may have already been tilted especially when you are asking everyone what you should do with the trade.  When you have to ask someone what to do with your trade, you are no longer beating your own drum.

You must take the time to find your own drum (the right market or the right stocks to trade) and the rhythm (trading style) to beat.  It will take some trials and errors before you find yourself.

To find yourself, you need to understand yourself.  To understand yourself, you need to look within yourself and be honest about your strengths and weaknesses.

And yes, I’ve never said beating your own drum is a walk in the park.  But to have a chance to win in this game, it pays that you learn how to beat your own drum pronto!

My 2 cents.

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Today Portfolio Adjustment (05-24-2013)

Today I was missing in action.

Market gapped down at open and then proceeded to climb steadily upward all day in a grotesque stair step fashion.

I tried again selling $AMRN in the morning, this time only half-position size, hoping to buy back cheap.  Not much luck again; but I was able to buy back a bit cheaper than what I sold.  Not much of a good deal but still beat buying back at higher price.

Seeing that the market was down, I decided to unload $TC, $MCP, $SLW (at breakeven when combining the three together) to raise cash.

I also reduced position size on $CERS and $UNXL to minimize risk.

I added to $NUGT near the open when price action was strong; but later on, price action fell apart and I was stopped out for a small losses.

I’m going to give $APRI a little more room to see how the 2nd public offering is being received next week.

Thanks to Dev’s pick on $UNXL, I’m seeing nice green despite the reduced size from peeling off some in the morning.

I was basically neutral most of the day which explained my lack of action except for the liquidation and reduction of some positions.

Current holdings:



The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

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Today Portfolio Adjustment (05-23-2013)

Today was a stubborn day.

Market opened down and the first thing I looked at was $APRI.  Seeing that the the public offering price =$2.85; I see some possibility here.  The bids were there at the open so I unloaded the whole lot with the expectation to buy it back cheap.  Fortunately for me, price did go down and stabilized around low $2.6x where I bought back my position.

$UNXL took out yesterday low from two days ago, so out it went.  When price stabilized around mid $22.xx, I bought back my position.

$CERS looked tempting since price action recovered pretty quickly; so I bought back 60% of my original position from yesterday for about the same price.  Hindsight said I should wait; but hindsight was not there when I was buying.  I will see how it looks tomorrow.

$AMRN had a large bids so I decided to sell my whole lot just to exercise my resolve to survive.  There were only a minor hesitation; but I was glad to have done it.  Price did not go down further after I sold so I bought back my position after seeing some buyers coming back in.  I had been sitting on this position for so long that it was a good exercise to dislodge my immobility regarding this position.  Next time when there is a profit to be had, I may just take it with my swing trade position.

I was stopped out of $NUGT for profit on position coming in from yesterday.  Later in the day when I didn’t see any major retracement on this one, I bought a starter positon along with other miners- $SLW, $TC, and $MCP.  Since $MCP is a pick from the Dv, how can I go wrong here?  Nevertheless, I’ll have my own protective stops in place for these position.  I like these miners because their price actions were quite resilient today.

I also bought back some position on $DNN I sold yesterday.

Current holdings:



The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter




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Zen’s trial result with Vascepa ($AMRN)

With $AMRN being the largest position in my portfolio, of course, I’m taking Vascepa for my cardiovascular health.  Why would I buy $AMRN if I don’t believe in the product?

The good news is that after only two months of taking Vascepa (4 grams per day according to recommended dose), my triglyceride level has dropped 46%.  The last time my trig was this low was eleven years ago.  My total cholesterol has decreased 25% without taking statin.  And yes, my LDL level did not go up.

The reason why I want Vascepa so much is because I don’t like to take statin.  My doctor has been recommending me to take statin for the last ten years and I keep avoiding it.  But I know I’ve to take something.  While my total cholesterol is still in need to come down more, I think I will try the natural remedy such as eating more oatmeal and exercise more.  Meanwhile, I will keep taking Vascepa to keep my trig low.

I’m hoping that with more time on my Vascepa therapy, my total cholesterol will continue to come down.  I’ll let you know after another two months.

Today, I did something that I didn’t think I could do.  I literally sold my whole lot of $AMRN just to prove that I could if special situation required it.  Without knowing whether the DOW would drop a like rock after the 7% drop on NIKKEI, I sold with the hope of buying back cheap.  Unfortunately, price did not go any further down after I sold, so I bought my core and swing trade position back.  All at a price higher than I sold for.  And Where are the shorts when I need them?  Go figure.

My 2 cents.

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