I’ve been accumulating $CERS again recently after a rough start earlier in the year. This time, I think I will just hold it for the fundamental reason that, in my opinion, the services offer by $CERS’ products may become a standard requirement for all blood banks in the future.
Why not?
As our population grows, it increases the need for more blood in the blood banks. By utilizing $CERS products, blood banks can eliminate the risk of contaminated blood.
It is this simple.
European countries are already using $CERS’ products. Cerus is now waiting for FDA to approve the use of its product in the US. What is the odd of FDA disapproving it when the products have already been in use by other countries?
In summary, there is a large market in the US for Cerus to tap into once FDA gives its nod. Thus, the risk in this play is really the decision of the FDA. Oh wait, this is nothing new here in the land of biotech…
But then I’m willing to wager that the FDA approval of Cerus product is as “fill in the blank” as approving $AMRN for their mid-trig (200-500) level use.
Now you see why I’m betting on this one, eh?
Take a look at the monthly chart below. I like to see the $10 target reach in the early 2014 if not sooner.
Today price action took out $6 resistance; naturally, I added a bit more because of this breakout.
My 2 cents.
Below is information from $CERS website on how its product works:
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on TwitterHow INTERCEPT Works
The INTERCEPT Blood System for platelets and plasma employs the unique properties of our amotosalen HCl molecule to block the replication of DNA and RNA, preventing the proliferation of susceptible pathogens. For red blood cell pathogen inactivation, a similar treatment process has been developed using a different molecule called S-303.
Platelets and red blood cells are not inactivated by the crosslinking process because they do not require nucleic acids to function. Plasma is not inactivated by the treatment because it is an acellular product (proteins and liquid).
Controlled Reaction
The interactions of amotosalen and S-303 with DNA and RNA are highly specific and occur with high frequency even at low concentrations of nucleic acids (Fig.1). Once inside a pathogen, the compounds dock in between the nucleic acid base pairs. Upon illumination with ultraviolet A light (amotosalen) or a change in pH (S-303), an interstrand crosslink is formed, “locking” the DNA or RNA together so that it can no longer replicate. These reactions require UVA light or pH change, and will not continue in the absence of these conditions.Figure 1
Broad Spectrum of Inactivation
The crosslinking activity of amotosalen and S-303 is not limited to particular nucleic acid sequences or specific families of pathogens, so unlike testing procedures this blood safety method does not rely upon advance identification of potentially harmful organisms. The replication of a broad spectrum of viruses, bacteria and parasites, as well as leukocytes, can be inactivated with these treatment processes.– See more at: http://www.cerus.com/Products/how-intercept-works2/default.aspx#sthash.66Z5KwFt.dpuf
Just my opinion… But I would be real hesitant to the idea that this would gain FDA approval, let alone be a requirement for blood products. I work in Blood Bank. This product may very well do what it says in vitro, but I would be very curious to know the effects of this drug in vivo post transfusion. Will this drug inactivate beneficial bacteria in the abdomen? As it states, will this inadvertantly lower the WBC count since it can inactivate leukocyte replication? I would say much less than 1% of tranfsused units result in transfusion reaction due to bacterial contamination due to the stringent collection procedures by ARC and other blood donation centers in the US. I have no position in $CERS either way, but I do follow IBC for advice and ideas….I thought you might appreciate some thoughts from someone in the field
Hi Kurt, I do appreciate your input and that is why I post my thoughts and logic so that others can question them. Since I’m only an investor/speculator, I approach the company information as a layman instead of a trained professional in the field, I’ll attempt to answer your question using only the available information from the company’s website.
Regarding your question:
1) Will this drug inactivate beneficial bacteria in the abdomen?
Below is an excerpt from he company information on “How INTERCEPT Works” under the “Controlled Reaction”:
Per the statement above, my understanding is that in the absence of the illumination with ultraviolet A light or pH change, the controlled reaction that destroy and prevent the replication of pathogens will not happen inside the human body; thus, I don’t believe the beneficial bacterial inside the human body will be inactivated.
2) I would say much less than 1% of transfused units result in transfusion reaction due to bacterial contamination due to the stringent collection procedures by ARC and other blood donation centers in the US.
When you think about this, even 1% is 1% too much when there is a technology that will eliminate the 1%. Think about the unfortunate 1% who have received contaminated blood. This was exactly the case in Switzerland where a child was dead due to infusion of contaminated (bacterial) blood. As a result, Switzerland gave the green-light to Cerus to use its products in the country.
While there may be 1% of transfusion due to bacterial contamination, $CERS products are intended to inactivate “the replication of a broad spectrum of viruses, bacteria and parasites, as well as leukocytes”.
I like this stock based on my personal assumptions of what I “see” is happening in the future. As population expands, the need for more blood in the blood banks will increase; the testing of the blood for contamination can become very expensive and the chance of receiving contaminated blood from people of all background increase as well. Sooner or later, the economical savings from using $CERS products will out-weight the cost of testing all new blood donation for specific pathogen coming into the blood banks once Cerus proves that it can inactivate all pathogens (from bacteria to virus). Imagine that with the benefit of Cerus products, blood banks can relax their stringent collection procedures and thus have the ability to collect even more blood from the population to help support the blood needs from population explosion as we now live longer than our parents and grandparents due to advancement in the biotech industry.
I may very well be wrong on my assumptions; but such is the risk I’m willing to take based on my “understanding” of the fundamental and my observation of the chart pattern. Currently, $CERS shows an uptrend with the possibility of breaking out to the upside due to breaking out of the $6 resistance. The fundamental story, whether I’m correct or wrong on my assumptions, only dictates my position size. Right now, $CERS is my 5th largest position in my portfolio.
Thank you for your input and comment.
Cheer!