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Today Portfolio Adjustment (03-14-2013)

After hearing the good news on $BBRY having a committed one million units order, I figured that should be the catalyst to drive to stock to over $16.  So, I wait after the open to give the price action more room to settle down.  I bought a starter position at a decent $15.5x area with the morning low at $15.2x.  At price began to climb, I added.  I put a stop below the $15.2x low and left it alone.  I was busy all morning so I didn’t have time to watch the market most of the morning.

Later morning came in and I was hit with two surprises.  I bought $PACB in the morning when price was just sitting on the $2.30 support;  so, I figured it would be a good calculated risk.  No! price was tracking below $2.20.  One looked at the chart and I knew what I had to do.  I dumped the stock to take the loss.

Same deal with $DCTH.  In the morning, $DCTH acted like it would shrug off the dilution and stabilize around $1.8x before the next leg run up similar to $CLDX.  No! $DCTH was tracking $1.7x.  Again, one looked at the chart and I had to sell it pronto.  As you can see, I love to take losses! (grin)

$BBRY no longer was showing on my portfolio screen; apparently, I was stopped out with a small loss!  What’s a disappointment!

$CGEN did not look good but it wasn’t as bad as $DCTH and $PACB; so I decided to give it some more time and room to prove itself.

So, what do I do next?  Then I remember $IMUC from tpain when he asked me about it in previous post.  I checked the chart and lo and behold, the red bar that looked to violate the uptrend line was no longer intimidating.  There were now two green bars after that which kept the prices inside the ascending triangle.  Not to miss the potential move up to take out the triangle, I decided to give this one a try and bought as starter position.  At least, the chart looks so much better than the $PACB & $DCTH as of now.

I also came across $CDXS.  I don’t remember how I’ve come across it but it is in my watch list.  $CDXS exhibited a breakout to the upside by taking out the resistance line of $2.57.  So that was a no brainer and I bought some.  What tickled me about $CDXS was that it was somehow related to $SZYM.  I see a great future in $SZYM so I’m naturally drawn to the potential of $CDXS as well.  Chart looked good so I bought some.

$SZYM, although down from $9, is still trading within the uptrend line; I’m holding long even though my position is a bit under water.

I’m happy to see my $AAPL still hanging on.  My stop was not hit.  So, I’m still in.

The uranium stocks CCJ, DNN, URA all looked steady so I left them alone.

I came across $HW while reviewing the ETF price charts.  One of the ETF exhibited a strong trend (I can’t remember the symbol now) so I looked at the stocks that made up the ETF.  One of them was $HW.  I like the look of the chart and I like the fact that it is associated with the rising house-building market which also happens to be The Fly’s thesis.

Again, a good looking chart and a solid price action made this a no brainer buy.

Current holdings:

LRAD, AMRN, SZYM, AAPL, HW, IMUC, DNN, CDXS, CCJ, URA, CGEN and 28% cash.

My 2 cents.

 

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It’s all about the “head-up”

The way I see it, if you hear or see something that tickle your interest, you are being present an opportunity to do something about that “info” you’ve heard or seen.

Recently, Tpain from the Blogger Network asked me about $IMUC.  I take a look at it and like the look of the chart and have told Tpain my analysis (see below):

“Hello T, I didn’t see your comment until now. By looking at the chart, the price has been on an uptrend since mid-Nov of last year. And it is now in the ascending triangle formation. The way I see it, your breakeven point is right at the long-term trend line from mid-Nov. If that line is taken out, you could still get out at breakeven.

In summary, I can’t tell you if there is a future in your stock; but you seem to be in a good position to ride this out and still get out at breakeven when the long-term trend line is violated.”

At the time, price looks like it may break out to the downside by violating the short-term uptrend line.  However, after a few days of price action, I’m convince this stock may have leg to breakout of the ascending triangle.

Take a look at the daily $IMUC chart below:

IMUC_daily

Thus, I’m willing to put my money down for this one.  Anyone looking at it has to say the price is heading higher, no?

A big Thank You to Tpain from the Blogger Network for bringing this to my attention   Bravo!

Btw, I dumped my losers stock $PACB & $DCTH to cut loss and piled some of the money into $IMUC.  Let’s see if it will work.

My 2 cents.

 

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If you like $BZH (Fly’s pick), you will like $HW

Take a look at the daily chart below.  Isn’t it a wonderful breakout to the upside?

HW_daily

I like buying stock that make new high, or intermediate high.  It means there are a lot of interest behind the stock that keeps propelling the stock price to break new high.  Recently $HW makes a new high this week by taking out the weekly resistance established in the last week of January.  See below:

HW_weekly

From the look of it, a recovery of home-building is going to drive this stock much higher.

Don’t believe me, take a look at the monthly $HW chart below:

HW_monthly

See how much more room $HW can go giving its historical high?  But this will have to be a longer term play if you want to see that kind of price increase.

I bought starter position on $HW today.

My 2 cents.

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Today portfolio adjustment (3-13-2013)

At the morning, after seeing $PACB gapped down to the level where my entry point was, I took the opportunity to close out my position at breakeven- effectively giving up all paper gain.

Next up was $CGEN.  Price action took out yesterday low which was an inverted hammer and that was not a good sign.  Unfortunately, there wasn’t much bids below and any selling would create a waterfall price drop.  To minimize my own exposure I also sold 30% of my position when the bids were at some price points.  I gave back paper gain and took a small loss.  It was a good thing that I was away from my desk during the hour $CGEN tanked all the way to low $5.2x which spared me any negative reaction.  Fortunately, price action corrected all the way back above $5.5x by the time I came back to the desk.  Since liquidity is so thin on this stock, I have to give it more room to flex.  Still holding 70% of original position.

$RPTP was having problem taking out the high of yesterday after I added.  Seeing both $PACB and $CGEN took a dump in the morning, I felt booking profit would help my mental state since I had to give back paper gain for the last three biotech stocks.  It is important to keep a mental balance during the trading period.

I saw the $AAPL spike in the intraday chart and decided that it “could” be the bottom that I was looking for.  I took a starter position and was not stopped out yet.

I also saw the stability of $DCTH and decided to venture back in with only half-size position.  I was in the money by end-of-day but after hour was a different story since $DCTH was selling $50m worth of shares.  Ouch again!  However, this may or may not have a long term negative impact.  $CLDX also had a negative reaction to the dilution on the first day of the announcement but it was able to brush off the news and headed 71% higher afterward.  So, let’s see if $DCTH can do the same thing giving that it’s waiting for FDA approval on its technology.  I will monitor it tomorrow before deciding what to do.

After seeing the chart on $DNN, I’m confident that uranium correction from January rally is about over.  Therefore, I made up my mind to buy back the three uranium positions I sold earlier to lock in profit.  Thus, I bought $CCJ for a good price thanks to the correction today as well as $URA.

Last, $USU tanked big in the latter part of the day and I just had enough of it.  Turned out that the Senator might not be allocating the required sum to $USU due to limitation of resource.  Along with the fear of reverse split, coming note payment, and more dilution, you have a perfect storm for a demise of $USU despite the Gov’t good intention.  Seeing that I could still get 60% of my original investment back if I sold today, I decided to take the opportunity to do so.  Tomorrow may be a bounce day or it may as well be another 10+% drop day; however, I like the odd of knowing that I can get my 60% now.  Again, this is the case of dealing with the hand you have now instead of speculating of what may happen tomorrow when you have a major decision to make.  Since my overall portfolio from this morning had already accounted for the previous drawdown of my $USU position, today % change of $USU was the only incremental negative change to my overall portfolio.

By the end of the day; my current portfolio stands as:

LRAD, AMRN, SZYM, AAPL, DNN, CCJ, CGEN, URA, DCTH and 36% cash.

My 2 cents.

 

 

 

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Ouch! Throwing in the towel on $USU

Well, it’s a good thing I didn’t average down when it tracked down from my entry point.   I believe the talk of reverse split and the possibility of dilution next year is what causes the panic selling.

But enough is enough!  There is a real possibility that they may wipe this company clean of existing shareholders by restructuring through bankruptcy.  In that case, I get zero money back.  At least now, I’m getting 60% of the money back from my investment in $USU.

This 60% of the $USU money can gain me back x times more if I play the right high-beta stock next time.

There are winners and there are losers; unfortunately for me, I’ve to accept the loser when I see one.  Now, if $USU shoots back up in the future, I’ll have to analyze it like a brand new investment- is it worth the risk?

So far this year, I’ve two big losers ($ETRM & $USU) and one big win ($MJNA).  Basically, I’m being set back on my annual gain of 2013.  However, I still have nine months ahead of me to get back on my feet and come out swinging for the year.

Interesting enough, I don’t feel much pain or sad for this loss since I’m prepared for this eventual resolution giving the way it has been trading for awhile.    Today big drop is simply a wake-up call and I intend to heed its calling.

My 2 cents.

 

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Believe it or not! I bought back $DCTH today.

Simply because the chart says it is stabilizing.

Don’t believe me?

Look at the 3m chart below:

DCTH_3m

Did you see how price action climbed back up above the 89 xma and 79 sma lines?

Now, look at the daily $DCTH chart.

DCTH_daily

Do you see a long-tail underneath that tadpole?  Geez!  Did I just say tadpole?  Anyway, you see my point.  The bull has taken back the force and, as a result, leave a long tail below.  I’ll add more if today high is taking out tomorrow.

My 2 cents.

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Buying back Uranium for my portfolio

I bought $DNN today.  I’ve been watching and waiting and I think it is time to get back in.

See how price action took out the resistance line (blue) yesterday.  And today, it gapped up.  I thought I could wait for it to retrace back to the blue line but there were just too many bids holding this one up.  So, I decided to join in and bought a 3/4 size position on it.

DNN_daily

I also took advantage of $CCJ correction today to buy back in starter share.

CCJ_3m

Did you see the intra-day (3m chart) uptrend line after the downdraft this morning?

Take a look at the daily chart below, see how $CCJ is still trading inside the consolidation range?  If it breaks out of the range to the upside, it will be a runner.  The longer it stays in the range, the harder it will run once it breaks out.

CCJ_daily

I also bought $URA today.  Take a look at the daily $URA chart below.  It looks like it is about to bust thru the downtrend line.

URA_daily

My 2 cents.

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$AAPL acting like a woman in heat this morning!

This morning action of $AAPL is very unusual.  The sudden burst of energy after 10:00 am was purely titillating.  Like an attractive woman beckoning you to come over.  You know what I mean.  You can’t help but being pull by an unknown force.  You inch closer while the woman, oop! I mean $AAPL, is telling you to take her by the look of her eyes.  She is ready, she seems to say.

So, like a gullible man with a fondness for attractive woman (who isn’t?), I went for it and bought a starter position on $AAPL.

So far, I’m being pinched for the moment.  I’m not sure if I’ll get bitched slap later on.  I sure hope not!

I’m putting a stop below today low just in case she may just be someone who want to steal my wallet…

Look at the 3m $AAPL chart below:

AAPL_3m

You see how excited she became after 10:12am?  How can you not be excited???

Look at the daily chart below:

AAPL_dailly

Did you see how she bounce off the support line last week?  You will see the support line in the weekly chart below

AAPL_Weekly

I’m going to try to sit on this woman, oop again!, I mean $AAPL, for as long as I can.

My 2 cents.

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Leverage or High Beta?

My trading style is all about high beta.  While some of you may leverage yourself to the hilt with $AAPL stock, I load up on high beta stocks using cash.

Both styles are obviously high risk with a high reward scenario; however, I’m more likely to walk home with a few more buck than those who leverage to the hilt when the market crash or the stocks in question crash.  These few bucks that I still have after the calamity will give me another chance to make a come back by buying, you guess it, high beta stocks.

Since I trade biotech, which by nature is high beta, a lot, I’m always subjected to high risk at all times.  Thus, in order for me to survive, I’ve to be quick in my execution.  I try not to think too much when I trade.  You can say I trade by reaction.

Below is an example of my thought process:

This morning, $BBRY opened higher but then started heading lower.

“Hey, $BBRY looks good at the open”

“Wait a minute, $BBRY is tanking”

“It dipped to negative territory in 6 min after open!”

“I’m still in the money.  I’ve not given back too much yet.”

I looked at the daily bar chart and compared today bar to the previous day bar.

“Not looking good.  I’m taking my money now.”

I clicked the mouse button to sell all my $BBRY shares to close.

Done.

All three 3D printer companies headed higher after open; but then after 10:00am EST, both $DDD & $SSYS began to tank.  Meanwhile, $XONE was fighting the downdraft and even bounced back up after falling off a bit.

“XONE is holding well despite $DDD & SSYS tanking.”

“XONE is dipping… not yet, it is holding…and bouncing back up”

“Give it a few more moment”

“Holy Smoke! DDD is crashing and look like SSYS is following through.  XONE is still holding… impressive!  But I’m not going to wait for it.  I still have profit so I’m taking it.”

Click, click, & click.

I’m out to lock in profit.

$DCTH opened up at the open and then after 20 minutes began to tank.  It went into negative territory and dropped quickly to the gap-filled area of $2.04 which I postulated was a good support.

“No way! Already? Let’s see if it will stabilize.”

“There is a lot of bid in there.  Maybe it will hold.  Wait…”

Meanwhile the bids size increased and price looked like it might hold.

“Looking good.”

10 minutes later, the sizable bids had all been hit and price started to tank.

“Holy smoke!  I’m getting near the breakeven mark!  I’m getting out now while the bids are there to take my load.”

“Maybe I can buy them back below $2.”

Click, click, & click.

Out of $DCTH at breakeven level.

And this is pretty much how I think during trading. Really, there wasn’t much to think but to express short burst of emotion in reaction to the price action at the time.   I know what I’ve to do and I strive to do it quickly.  There were times I hesitated just a bit and the stock god took that opportunity to punish me.  A few seconds of hesitation and someone took away the bids I needed to get out without tanking the price further down.  Darn!  Then you had to scrambled out before others jumped ahead of you.  Sometimes, it was the right thing to do ’cause price just kept on tanking after I had gotten out; but sometimes I just happened to sell at the bottom for the day.  Yeap, it happened!

$DCTH was a good example today.  Now, in hindsight, it would be nice that I took profit at the open; but you should not think like that.  You just have to deal with the hand (like a poker hand if you will) you have at the moment.  I was given the choice to get out at breakeven and I took it.  Right after I took it, price continued to tank further down and broke under $2.  I bought back some shares to see if the bounce had leg but it didn’t.  I dumped it when price went back down to the low $1.9x area.

Did I think about what if price went back up after I got out at breakeven?

Sure but that was the least of my worry at the moment.  I was more worry about turning my gain into loss!  As far as I’m concerned, I do not have the same “trust” in $DCTH as I’ve for $USU, $AMRN, $LRAD, and even $SZYM.  Therefore, I’m not willing to hold this one against me after I was sitting on a gain.  This thought process simply pushed away any thought that I could be getting out at the bottom of the correction.

Thinking about it, perhaps my username should be called “High Beta Trader”.  Feedback anyone?

My 2 cents.

 

 

 

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