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Yearly Archives: 2012

Bottom picking to get RIMM

Hopefully, I will not get reamed for doing so!

Giving the “potential” (a loaded question mark here) of the new version of Blackberry coming out early next year, I’m betting there will be a slow recovery from here to the release of the new Blackberry phone.

Actually, this is a pretty low risk trade with a potential for a 3x+ over risk.  I bought @ $7 with a stop below today low.  If you look at the daily RIMM chart below, taking out today low mean violating the upward slope trendline I drew.  RIMM needs to have higher highs and higher lows from here to maintain an upward trend direction from here.  As you can see and calculate, the risk is quite acceptable for me.

I will add more if there is higher high on the daily bar going forward.

Believe it or not, I’m 70% invested!

Breakdown of my portfolio by sector:

Uranium 20%

Biotech 26%

Natural Gas 11%

LT equity 11%

Experimental 2%

Good Hunting!


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Doing the Opposite

Very strange day for me today.  Normally, I will be buying TZA giving the downdraft; but after making only lunch money even when I was “right” the last couple of time, the effort is just not worth the trouble.  Instead I try to see if there is any support for the SPY to halt the correction any time soon and I think I see something.

Forgive  me for being creative in my liberated use of the pitchfork.  I think you are limiting yourself by focusing only on the “proper” way to use anything.  Anyway, the white pitchfork helped me identify the range of support giving past price consolidating area.  Thus, from the daily SPY chart below, I’m seeing support in the $140ish area.


Based on my “personal” analysis of the chart, I’m brushing off today correction as a temporary dip against the raging bull.  So what do you do when you believe the bull is still waiting to gore the short?  You buy something that is going up.

So, as a long-time biotech speculator, I see some bio-babies are brimming to grow up fast.  So, I added to my AMRN and bought ALXA and THLD.  All three show a detached indifference to the current correction by either going higher or just staying put.

Noticeably, another one I like that show the strong underlying “bull-current” is the uranium stock CCJ.  Despite DOW going down 100 pts, CCJ is still up for the day.  Somehow, uranium based stocks are getting back into the consciousness of the big money and I believe they are ready to run when this correction is over.  As a result, I bought back DNN, ES, and URG I sold this week.

Below are some more charts for my future reference:

Below is the AMRN daily chart:

Below is the daily ALXA chart:

Below is the daily CCJ chart:

Currently, I’m 55% invested with 45% cash.

Good Hunting!

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Are we there yet?

Ok, we have a bad ass bearish engulfment bar on the SPY daily chart (see below).  Is this the turning point or is it only a small correction for the infinite bull?

I am not going to hang round with a loaded portfolio to find out.

I sold all my uranium based stocks to lock in profit.

I sold BAS to cut my losses; but I’m holding GLOG.

I’m still holding my Biotech AMRN & EXEL since their potential run is worth the risk I assigned.

Bought a small starter position on TZA.  Yes, I’m prepared for the market to gap up against me.

Almost forgot, I took profit on half of my AAPL put option and is holding the other half for tomorrow.  I may end up giving my profit back tomorrow due to AAPL strong supporter base.  But I like to give it one more day.

Currently 70% cash.

Good luck to all (long or short).


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Energy Festival Day

After selling all my uranium stocks this morning due to the downdraft, I pretty much bought most of them back albeit a bit higher price than I sold for.  I also added URG into the midst and let go of USU which didn’t performed as expected.

I also bought some BAS because I like Mr. Cain Thaler’s thesis as well as the forming of a Cup & Handle pattern.  Don’t underestimate the Cup & Handle pattern, a breakout from the handle can become a runner.

Can you see the Cup & Handle pattern on BAS daily chart below?

Thanks Mr. Thaler for the idea!  If BAS is a winner, all credit go to Mr. Thaler!

I also bought some GLOG.  This one is a recent IPO (March 2012) and is a cheap alternative to buying LNG or GLNG based on market capitalization value.  However, earning is tomorrow so I’m treading on the gambling side here.  Despite the earning report tomorrow,  I don’t want to chase this baby if the earning report does not have negative outlook.   I like to own GLOG for long-term here since transportation of LNG (liquefied natural gas) is the future as far as I’m concerned.

Below is the daily chart for GLOG.  Notice that it is getting ready to take out the June 20th high of $10.60.  Or it could bounce back down; so this one is risky.  Tomorrow earning report will dictate the direction here.  I’ll add more if $10.60 high is taken out.

Currently, I’m heavy on energy in my portfolio:

27% Uranium based stocks (CCJ, DNN, ES, URG)

9%  Natural Gas based stocks (BAS, GLOG)

9% Biotech (AMRN & EXEL)

11% LT Equity

44% cash

Good Hunting!

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The True EDGE in trading

So everyone is supposed to have an edge in order to win in this stock market game, right?

But what edge are we talking about here?

In general, when people talk about edge, they often refer to statistical advantage.  We will call this type of edge “technical edge”.

But to me, technical edge becomes zero edge if you don’t have the discipline to follow it.

I know I repeat this again and again but I think it is worth repeating because it is my opinion that “being discipline” is the true edge that allow you to beat the other 90% of the trader in making it.

In other words, you can be very proficient with the following:

– Chart reading that included your understanding of all popular chart patterns such as head-and-shoulder, cup and handle, double top, double bottom, flag, triangles (symmetrical, ascending, and descending), wedge, gap, triple top, triple bottom, and of course candlestick chart patterns.

– Technical analysis that included all kinds of oscillator and momentum indicators.

– Other chart & technical analysis that I did not mention above

And you still have no edge if you allow your emotion to dictate the better half of your trading decision.

But discipline doesn’t just drop on your lap without effort. You have to work at it.

To begin with, you need experience.

If you are a trader, either as a beginner or intermediate, you are already on the path to gaining experience.  However, experience alone will do nothing for you unless it is being reviewed and analyzed by yourself.  By reviewing your trades, you learn to become a witness to your own trading decision.  But to be a true witness of yourself during trading, you need to be self-aware.  Instead of living in your own fear or greed, you learn to stand back and watch yourself being in fear or greed.  If you can possess this type of self-awareness to witness your fear and greed, you will have the self-awareness to “choose” not to let it interfere with you trading plan.

Below is an example of your NOT being aware of your own emotion:

“FUCK! Why the FUCK did the stock have to go against me after I bought!  It HAS to go up.  I KNOW it!  I’m buying some more here!”

Below is an example of your being AWARE of your own emotion:

“Fuck! I may be wrong again. I HATE being wrong. Look like price action is going to hit my stop soon.  FUCK!  Oh well, moving on.  I will watch to see how this stock behave in the next couple of days.  I will take the next buy setup signal if there is one.”

When you are aware, you are not living inside your fear, anger, frustration, and greed.  That mean you still have the ability to choose to side-step your fear and greed and stay the course of your trading plan.  But to get to this level of being able to side-step your emotion, you have to climb THE mountain.  That is, the mountain of self-awareness.  And climb you will if you are commit to the path of trading well.   In time, your constant awareness of your emotional reaction and your effort to bypass these reaction will become less of a struggle and more of a habit.  And before you know it, your habit is your discipline.  And following your trading plan will become second nature.

All the effort in gaining self-awareness not only make you a better trader but a better person in life.

This is how discipline becomes you and this is how you become discipline.

You see, the true edge in being a winning trader is not the technical edge, it is your ability to commit to your risk management and trading plan because you possess self-awareness to bypass your own emotional hindrance.  We are all human; therefore, we will have our emotion.  The key to avoid living inside your emotion is your self-awareness.  And because you are self-aware, you have the power to make a choice.  With practice, your choice of following your trading plan despite your fear and greed becomes a habit.  Viola!  You now have discipline.

The road to true edge only appear to you when you are ready.  You can be reading this and agree wholeheartedly; but if you are not ready, this information will be forgotten the next day when you are staring at your loss with anger or fear.  If you are ready, you will understand what you need to do to gain this self-awareness.  In my case, I stopped buying books on trading and took up Tai Chi and meditation.

Good Hunting!

ps. Oh yeah! If you are ready, you can also do what Yogi and Boo Boo does.  Start trading small lot so you can learn to take small losses.  In time, taking small losses become a habit.  Then progress to move up the ladder by increasing your lot size in small increment to acclimate yourself.  This is the same technique in martial art training when beginners are forced to spar with partner to learn to acclimate to the punches and kicks coming at you.  You know your partner is not going to hurt you bad so you begin to put aside fear and learn to dodge and defend yourself with proper martial art techniques.  This is the same principle in trading.  You know you are not taking big loss so you learn to put aside your fear and greed and learn to apply proper risk management and following your trading plan.

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Get ready for a Face-Off

Yes, Facebook is what I’m referring to.  While I’m not the only one expecting a FB sell-off due to the coming available FB shares to be released into the public; but today price action figuratively slams the fist on the table.  Bang!

Gap down warning!

Look at the daily chart below:  There are 3 gap downs (not counting today) in the history of FB price actions (see the highlighted circles) and they all ended with the trend heading lower afterward.  Why would today be any different?  On top of that, there is a baseline support around $19.82 (08/02/2012 low) that is looking to be penetrated soon.

Below is the hourly FB chart for a better effect on the gap down look.

Well, what do you think?  Of course, I bought some FB put optons for this bet.  And yes, if the baseline support is penetrated, I’ll buy more puts.

Remember, trade with discipline and follow the price actions.

Good Hunting!

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Is this AAPL ripe enough for sale?

Yes, I was stopped out of my previous AAPL short (bought put option) with a loss; but I’ve been patiently waiting for the next sell signal to come in.  Today, I have it.

Below is the daily AAPL chart.  Notice that the BW’s bearish divergent bar was formed yesterday; and today, price action took out yesterday low which is a signal for me to sell.  Also, there is also a possible development of an evening star candlestick pattern which is bearish.

Below is the 15m AAPL chart.  Notice the solid down trend in the last 2 days.

Now, AAPL may recover from here.  So don’t listen to me since I’ve been wrong often.  But I bought some AAPL put to try my luck.

Don’t forget to trade with discipline and follow the price action.

Good Hunting!


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Is it time for uranium stocks to swing higher?

I believe CCJ is on the recovering mode and may be heading back up to stardom pretty soon.

The daily CCJ chart below showed that downtrend pitchfork (white color) has been broken and is on track staying with the uptrend pitchfork (purple color).  Today up bar looks strong and I like to see it close above the 89 ema.

Below is the hourly CCJ chart.  Notice that it took out the multiple pivot high of the previous downtrend.

Below is the weekly CCJ chart.  Look like an upward basing slope is forming.

Today, I invested 13% in uranium based stocks that included CCJ, DNN, and USU.

Oh… this is for my trading journal.  Don’t listen to me since I will dump the uranium stocks without blinking if I see a major market correction coming.

Don’t forget to trade with discipline and follow the price action.

Good Hunting!

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Is the sleeping bull going to roll off the bed?

Come on already! We have a head-fake this morning.  A gap up with no meat.  Price has been meandering all morning inside the half-hour opening range.  Now, as I am typing the post, price finally broke below the bottom of the opening range.

A gap up that failed, to me, is a bear waiting to wreak havoc.  Let’s see if this bull can shake off its sleepiness and get on with the rally.  I believe we should have an answer in a day or two.  Can the Presidential rally overcome the Summer August sell-off?  Based on the last 6 days of small range bars, my take is that there is no guarantee the bull has a higher probability than the bear.  If this is going to be a bear, I’ll be waiting.

Below is the daily SPY chart.  Notice that today is a red color bar.  And it looks like it is going to close below the previous high made in August 7th.  Will there be a late rally to turn this into a green bar?  If there is, I’ll be impressed and will stay off the TZA hit button.  If not, my opinion is that the probability of a bear raid happening will increase ever so slightly.

Well, that is my take after almost falling asleep from watching the SPY movement.  You should know better than to listen to me for I’ve a record of being wrong half-of-the-time.  It is risk management that save my ass time after time; therefore, trade with discipline and follow the price action.

Good Hunting!


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This week has more green than red

Look at the SPY daily chart below.  This week is now officially a consolidation week since we have 5 days of small range day.  And out of this 5 days; we have 4 green bars versus 1 red bar.  Therefore, from a probability standpoint, the market wants to go up or has the propensity to go up.  Thus, I’m backing off from using TZA to shoot for correction that may not come in this time frame.

Nevertheless, this week established a trading range b/w Monday low ($139.56) and Tuesday high ($140.92).  If the low of $139.56 is taking out next week, my bet is that the correction will be more prevalent than before since more time was spent on consolidation this week.  The longer the consolidation period, the more persistent is the breakout. But for now, price action looks like it may go higher.

Below is the daily SPY chart:

Below is the daily SPY chart with a longer time frame so you can see how I drew the Pitchfork.

Currently 82% 76%  71% cash with some AMRN and LT-equity position. Also bought back WYNN.  I also bought LVS.

Good Hunting!


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