My bet is that it isn’t going to happen.
I only have to ask myself this simple question, “If I’m a fund manager, will I buy a boat load of stocks now?”
But then, what do I know?
I’m only playing the hand based on Newton’s law of motion. Unless there is a powerful force countering the current downdraft today, it will continue down.
The 10 minutes SPY chart below is showing a persistent down trend. It is going to take a lot of fund managers to buy this up to start an end-of-day rally.
Currently shorting SPY and AAPL again as day trade and also long on TZA and SKF as swing trade.
Good Hunting!
Market close update:
So we did have a end-of-day rally here and it really screwed me up on my day trades. Fortunately, I don’t day trade the same amount I did on the swing trade; so my thrill at the stock-casino wasn’t expensive. But I’m still holding my TZA and SKF as swing trade even though we have an “ok” end-of-day rally. The reason is because of 2 factors:
1) a long-tails doji
2) a confirmed divergence b/w the chart and the oscillator on the daily chart
The long tail doji may represent a major indecision today. Although we have an end-of-day-rally, failure to close on the upper quarter of the bar today means the bull hasn’t really won today. Doji at this point on the correction can mean the the downtrend can continue tomorrow OR a reversal will take place tomorrow to the upside.
HOWEVER, because of the divergence being confirm on the oscillator, I’m willing to continue my bet on TZA and SKF.
Below is the daily SPY chart:
Yes, I know, I’m talking out of my ass here simply because I don’t have a crystal ball. Price actions that ended up in a doji bar can be confusion; so trade cautiously and trade with discipline!
Good Hunting!
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IWM flagging mostly oversold on a 60 min since 5/18. Expect a bounce here back into mid $77, then look to reenter short on trend continuation lower.
Sound like a good plan.
I still have my TZA and SKF as swing trade. Current loss is being offset by yesterday gain since my stop is further away on the swing trade.
As far as day trading go today, it was a whipsaw day for me today.
***Most oversold on my RSI 60 min since 5/18, plus last week low is intact.
Look like I could be wrong after all.
There is a chance this rally may fail but I’m not going to argue with the tape. My stops will cut my loss if this rally continue on my day trade.
As I’m typing, my day trades just got stopped out for losses.
Can’t win every day.
I’m now long on AAPL due to the strong intraday rally.
I’m out of AAPL long for small losses due to the pause on the rally. I think the rally may still fail. I will reshort AAPL if it takes out the 5 min divergent bar.
well… you’re wrong as hell
Yes for now. Let’s wait till end of day. I reshort AAPL due to taking out of a new 5m divergent bar. Maybe I’m not too wrong…
But I don’t mind being wrong at all.
Yes, you can say I’m very wrong now!
While the losses are part of the business expense; the thing about being wrong is that I gave up the opportunity to take the long side to make some bread; but then it is all hindsight thinking.
Thanks for the comment.
… Market Breadth is rather … uhhh … “odorous” !!!
—
Last 20 minutes could get interesting !
.
Smelly indeud!
Day trade gone wrong today; but my swing trade is still on.
Let’s see what tomorrow bring.
If the goal is to murder as many weekly option gamblers as possible, tomorrow should close 137 SPY. 77 IWM
MAX PAIN!
Hey schdader, can I borrow your crystal ball? Perfect call! 🙂
Trading journal:
Stopped out of my TZA and SKF.
In one swoop, I gave back the gain I made earlier this week.
Moving on.