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Monthly Archives: June 2012

Mid-week Charts review- Dow Jones and SPY (look green so far…)

For the next few moments; put aside the noises of economy and simply look at the charts below:

Below are two weekly charts; one Dow and one SPY.

The Dow mid-week green bar is a little tepid but green nevertheless.  Giving the volume is quite low so far, we are still waiting for the final verdict of the big money.  Will they make the move Thursday and Friday?

The SPY mid-week bar, however, shows a green bar with more range.  Since the SPY mirrors the S&P500; wouldn’t that mean there are more stocks with strong upswing to back up this green bar?

Let’s see where Thursday & Friday will take us.

Good Hunting!

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Reconnaissance and capture mission initiated (updated 2)

Trading journal update:

Bought starter position on SYNA.  Chart looks promising and will add more if it takes out 6/7  high.

SYNA turned out to be a nice capture.  Initially, it put up a good fight which gave me a moment of doubt.  Good thing I fought on and locked them in my book.  I’m surprised at the resiliency of SYNA’s ability to hold the price above $29 despite the Dow being down 70+ points.  I like the fundamental of this company due to its compatibility and ability to enhance the coming MS Windows 8 operating systems.   I don’t know if SYNA will be included in the coming MS Surface PC tablet but if it does, expect to see a “PoP” in price action.  I’m very happy to have captured SYNA today!

Bought USEG.  Chart looks good and I like the hidden value in Mt. Emmons they own.

I added back DDD & SSYS due to DDD’s ability to withstand a sell-off.  SSYS is a sympathy and a “catch the falling knife” play.  Will re-evaluate position based on tomorrow price action.

Current position: AMRN DDD DNN MCP SSYS SYNA URRE USEG USU (18% 22% 24% 35%) plus 27% long-term portfolio.

Sitting on 55% 51% 38% cash.

What about Fed meeting?  Ain’t you worry about no QE3 and thus tanking the market?

“What are you talking about?  Isn’t that a ‘What if’ scenario? Price action looks good on these positions I’ve and that is all I care for now!  Believe it or not, my portfolio actually is up today!”

Good Hunting!


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“Change your position!” The King ordered

Daily trading journal update:

Sold the following for profit or breakeven:


Add or increase position size today:


Remaining positions:

AMRN DNN MCP URRE USU (together is 12%) plus my other 25% long-term holding

Currently 37% invested and 63% cash

Good Hunting!


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The “What-if” trap:: Do you really want to live there?

I’ve had my share of “what if” back in the old days.

“What if there is no QE3?”

“What if Spain default?”

“What if the Greek coalition fail?”

“What if there is solvency issue?”

“What if the market is over-bought?”

“What if I buy now and the market tank tomorrow?”

Well, I guess you get the thrift of what I’m trying to say here.  You can “what if” all you want; but all that is going to do is to freeze you from taking proactive action to grow your portfolio.

I know there are a lot of bears out there just waiting for the market to “tank” because they have all the logical reason for it to tank.  Well, maybe the market WILL tank; but it just won’t be tanking according to your time frame.  Maybe it will tank early next March?  How ’bout that?  No, wait, the market may even tank tomorrow or next week.  Or maybe not!

Regardless, if I follow the price action and the price starts to tank; guess what I’m going to do?  I’ll start liquidating my positions, locking in profit (probably give back some), and cutting my losses (if I buy late).  And then, if price continues to tank unabated, guess what?  I’ll start to initiate short position to commensurate with the continuing falling market until price action tell me the fall is over.

Meanwhile, your mind (and even mine!) will be developing thesis of where the market is heading based on the “lagging” information that is already out there.  No wonder that by the time you decide it is time to buy; you may be buying when the risk is much higher because the market already run enough for a correction to take place.

All this fundamental information we ALL can see, to me, are stale information.  Market is a forward looking machine.  It looks forward based on where all the big money is looking forward to.  We, the retail investors/traders, usually do not the fire power these big money players have.  Therefore, our prediction based on stale information can only have a 50/50 of being right because the big money prediction may be different from ours.  And even then, you may be right but way OFF in your timing.  Lo and behold when these big money becomes irrational in their way of prediction!

So, what should we, the retail investors/traders, do?

You guess it!  Forget predicting and just follow the price action.  When you follow price action, you are flowing with where the big money is going.  Meanwhile, while you are following the price action; ALWAYS think of protecting yourself.  ALWAYS think safety.

If you’ve been reading my posts; you knew that I traded both sides last week when the market was going thru the yo-yo sessions.  You also knew that by Friday, I saw price action began to show strength and began buying.  Thus, instead of wasting my time trying to predict where the market is going, I follow the price action and ended up being long from Friday to now.

Of course, I trade my own style and temperament.  Therefore, I really cannot tell you that my way is better than yours.  And I am definitely not advising you of anything here.  I’m simply typing my thought here for my own review later.  My whole point is that it is much more productive to spend more time learning the mechanism of trading (profit target and stop loss, option strategies if you preferred, etc) and then implement your trading plan based on price action.

Like some of you suggested here at iBC before, trade more (start with small positions) and think less.  In time, trading actively with a plan (this is very important) will help you develop good habit and overcome your emotional hindrance, mainly fear of being wrong.

When you trade actively (in a small way), you will learn that it is OK to be wrong.  In fact, you HAVE to be wrong in order to trade successfully.  Being wrong is no difference than losing a Black Jack hand.  You know you will lose some at the BJ table and win some with your basic strategy; why can’t you approach the market the same way.  It is OK to be wrong!  Just admit it QUICKLY so you can cut your loss QUICKLY!

Prediction is fun to write and even entertaining to read especially if ones tend to agree with the thesis.  But on its own without following the price action, you can watch the market run away and leaving you in the dust…

You know how I know?

Because I’ve been there and done that!

Good Hunting!

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Price Action speaks, “We are moving up!”

If you look at the 5 minutes chart below; what do you see?  An up or down trend?

Needless to day, I bought back some CHK and NUAN that I sold this morning as well.  In addition, I also added to SSYS and DDD.

Current positions:

AMRN CCJ CHK DDD DNN LMLP NUAN SSYS USU (now back to 55% invested and 45% cash)

Good Hunting!


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“Not so fast!” The King bellowed!

Come on now, you guys!  For all intent and purpose, just because we did not have a roaring positive green daily bar at the open doesn’t mean the upward momentum is over.  Let’s the price action speak first.  Yes, we opened down and I sold some to reduce exposure in case the selling continued unabated.  But it did not continue unabated; instead the Dow was only down 0.29% (as I’m typing this post).  This price action is far from the King yelling “Retrieve!”

No!  The King is simply bellowing “Not so fast!” 

If you look at the weekly Dow Jones bar as of now, you will see that it still has a bullish outlook.

I bought back DNN and CCJ (both as a slightly higher price than I sold this morning)

Now I’m 45% invested and 55% cash.

Remember, we can all come up with deep analysis of WHY the market should go down (or up) with strong logical support for our thesis; but ultimately, it is the price action that speak louder than what we think.

We think LOGICALLY; but market moves IRRATIONALLY.

And since we are trading the market; what information is better than the price action itself???

Follow the King and follow him tight; otherwise, the King cannot save you because you decided you are the smarter ones.

Btw, for those who invested deeply into their analysis; I know you are wishing the price action to adhere to your logical conclusion; but that would be like “wishing” your significant one to obey your every command.  Now, you know that is literally quite impossible!  Ok, ok..  Perhaps, some of the time; but not all the time. (grin)

Good Hunting!

For those who don’t know yet; in my book, King = Price action




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It’s not what we think that matter, it’s what the price action says that does!

Come on now, it is not news that the Leftist Syriza coming out of the left field threw a wrench into the Greek election.  The uncertainty of it all, Pasok or Syriza, somehow doesn’t fade the market yesterday.  Despite our conjecture of potential doom and gloom, the domino-effect of Greece exit of Euro-zone, and the various bearish scenarios that may come out of this election; market still went up Friday.

What does that tell you?  Sometimes when market did not do what you (or we) expected it to do, that by itself is an important message.  Seemed to me the market is brushing off this uncertainty because the market knows that one way or the other, the rest of the world is not going to let a small country like Greece ruins the stability of world economy.

What about the lesson from the failure of Lehman?   Yeah, even I fell into the trap door using this example as a rebuttal argument.  Now, I believe it is BECAUSE of the failure of Lehman that the financial centers around world learned an important lesson and are much more ready to handle any financial fall-out from Greece exit of the Euro-zone if that is the path being chose.

Think about this, the stock market, as a barometer, does NOT like uncertainty; it would fall hard last week if the world thought Greece is important enough to fuck the world economy up.  Perhaps last year the world was not ready for Greece “situation”; but giving the last week stock market movement; the world may be ready for whatever may come from Greece this year.

Look at the weekly Dow Jones chart below, the volume for last week was 25% higher than the week before and last week was an up bar!  If you ignore the outside noises and just look at the chart, it is as bullish as anyone will like it to be.

I’m glad I nibbled my way back in with 55% invested; this is close to the middle ground with a 5% bias on the upside. Regardless of how the market behave on Monday, I’ve no regret on my decision I made on Friday.

You see, it is not what we think that matter, it is what the price action says that does!

And since price action is the King in my book, I always follow my King.

Good Hunting!




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Holy Shit! It’s ALIVE!!!

Unbelievable!  If I have not seen it myself, I would not believe it!

I’ve been following uranium for years but due to the downdraft early in the year, I completely sold out all shape and form of uranium stocks.  Remember, it doesn’t matter if I like something, I MUST follow my KING (price action) and protect myself.  One of the super high-beta uranium stock I like is USU.  From 2011 to now, USU has been on a dead spiral and as far as I was concerned, it was marked for death due to starvation and uranium exposure.

Then 3 days ago (on Wednesday this week), Uncle Sam decided that USU must be saved!  In a quick and efficient manner that is a rare sight these days, financial fuel was forced feed on USU and the poor guy just bounced back from near death!  Whoa!  My baby is alive!

What do you think?  Of course, I “nibbled” my way back in USU.  However, in order for this baby to grow up to become a giant it was designed to be; more financial fuel has to be available.  USU needs that 2 billions loan guarantee from Uncle Sam and you know how the political situation is in DC.  You will think that someone who opposed the funding of USU is thinking that a mutant is being created…

Anyway, I’m in for this high-beta kick ass risk-explosion bet.  Yes, I only buy enough so that when this little mutant blow up by accident, I will probably only lose a finger…

Good Hunting!

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Time for the tactical offense I dub it as the “Snail Defense” (Updated)

Has anybody seen a snail lately?  Or do you remember how the snail move?  Slowly and ever  s l o w l y . . .

I figure I’ll try this method today.  Here is how it works.  You buy s-l-o-w-l-y than your normal “Get me fill already!  More, more, and more!”

Patiently, I waited for DDD to retrace after the morning rush hour run to the high of $29.76; and retraced it did.  Then I started to nibble my way back in at the low $29ish.  For the lord of me; I don’t understand why price will go up when the secondary offering is for $27.  But this academic debate is not something I want to dwell into since price action is the King and I need to follow my King.

Well, I’m all for taking along the siblings when I take my date out; it goes to build good relationship with your significant one.  So, without question, I nibbled on SSYS as well.

Next, since I pass a lot of gas, I love to own some gas.  So I nibbled on CHK. CHK chart looks exactly like what a snail will move- ever  s l o w l y  upward.

When it comes to my cholesterol level, I’ve no choice but to be optimistic about AMRN which should be getting a response from FDA soon regarding approval.  Call me naive, but I do want AMRN to succeed and its magical fish oil to be as valid as “an apple a day to keep the doctor away”.  Since I value my organ dearly, especially my liver, I’m not very keen at all to take those statin family of drug.   For the good of health, I nibbled on AMRN.

NUAN was my first baby-boomer.  I bought it when it was still under Scansoft name and under $5.  However, I sold too soon back then.  Now that the Fly bought some, it brought back old memory and the chart looks like a breakout.  Got to buy some for old memory sake.

Since I bought USU (see my other post); I started looking at CCJ and DNN.  CCJ looks good for a breakout play.  And DNN looks good for a bottom fishing since it is basing at $1.41 level.  Needless to say, I bought starter position for both.

SZYM looked like it is holding strong at current level ($12.30) for the last 4 days, so I bought back a starter position to see if there is a breakout next week.  Will buy more if it does.

So far, the field looks green and this snail is looking good and happy as a clam can be.  S l o w l y  it moves on and on.

Currently 40% 55% invested and 60% 45% cash.

Good Hunting!

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The Tug of War and the banana peel

This is quite an exhilarating week.  If there is ever an epic tug-of-war b/w the bull and bear, this is it.  There is no clear winner here yet.  Monday, the bear pulled back an inch to their side that they lost last Friday and the short sellers piled up for the final tug.  But it wasn’t to be; Tuesday came and the bull won back their inch and the short-haters piled up for the final tug.  Nope, it wasn’t to be either!  Wednesday came, the bear snorted some cocaine and yanked back the inch; but something changed, the bear idols began to think twice about piling up.  Somehow in some way, trader Joe is getting a bit smarter now.  The smart play seemed to be to bet for the yo-yo action.  Thursday, which is today, the bull snorted twice the cocaine the bear took yesterday and gained back an inch plus some.

Viola! The yo-yo action is confirmed!  The wager is that tomorrow, the bear will win back the inch.  Before the bull starts “yelping” on how the buying frenzy in the last moment of today close will surely carry the ball to the bull court tomorrow, don’t discount the same force of selling frenzy before the weekend vote.

For crying out loud, this back and forth is getting tiresome already.  Did you see the gruesome faces of the bull pullers as well as the bear’s.  All these pulling is taking a toll.

Now, can someone PLEASE throw a banana peel into the midst to see which side is gonna step on it?

It will be much more fun to watch the eventual “Whoosh” and see one side slams into the others and create smoke of sand so big that no one can see what is really happening.

Quick! Quick!  Check your broker account to see which way it goes; shrink or a full “woody”?

Sorry, since I didn’t trade today but close out my shorts in the morning; I’ve nothing to post but some meaningless babbles…

Still sitting on 73% cash.

Good Hunting!

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