$SNFCA On Its Way to a Double, and a New High Tight Flag

I first brought you $SNFCA from a high tight flag screen on 1.2.13. The stock closed that day at $9.06. It has since consolidated and made new HTF screens twice more. It broke out again today, closing at $13.56.

The newest High Tight Flag is $RVLT:

I should also note that former HTF, $UNXL, was up over 11% today…

We are finally seeing a little pullback after a solid month of rallying. The pullback is still pretty cute and has not turned ugly, although it has one of my indicators flashing a rather extreme signal. The indicator of which I’m speaking is the Decliners indicator.

This indicator simply counts the number of declining stocks with a close greater than 1 buck, 50 day average volume greater than 100K shares, and a 50 day average dollar volume greater than $1,000,000. It then ranks this count against all the previous counts over the last 250 days.

The Decliners indicator is the middle pane, green line. It closed this evening at 94.8. Click on the chart to enlarge it.

So what happens when we buy $SPY the next morning on the open after the Decliners indicator registers a close above 90?

The $SPY After Setup next day return is more than 2x better than average and results improve going forward. We see that by the 10th day, the edge is wearing off and $SPY average performance is catching up.

One important caveat about the Decliners indicator is that the edge can come and go very quickly. One of the other breadth indicators I use tends to portend a bounce that lasts longer. This is the number of stocks above their 5 day moving average. It is the indicator in the lower pane, red line. It has not yet fallen far enough for me to expect this bounce to last awhile. What this tells me is to expect a bounce, but do not expect it to last a long time. We may be setting up for a test-the-recent-highs situation before embarking on a more meaningful pullback.

After reading Andrew O’hehir’s article in Salon, Football’s Death Spiral, I realized that my initial reaction to Obama offering his opinion on football wasn’t just paranoia. His warning shot across the bow of American football was not out of concern for the athletes. Rather, his purpose was to rally the government media to action to dismantle a tradition that is fundamentally American.

I’ve never been a huge football fan. Baseball has always been the sport I played and followed. And when my son wanted to play football, I didn’t let him. The idea of three practices a week and then weekend games just did not fit into our family’s schedule, but honestly, I was also worried that he’d be injured. I can appreciate then the increasing amount of attention being generated from the traumatic brain injuries that players are experiencing and from the lawsuit concerning these injuries.

I can understand there will likely be some changes made to the game.

My hope is, if or when football is changed, dismantled entirely, or changed so much as to be unrecognizable, it will be due to risks to the athletes, and not due to the proliferation of beta males in the media. I knew after Obama unleashed his clarion call to his media minions that we’d start hearing more about football being violent, anti-woman, anti-gay, and soon enough, anti-American.

This is what happens when beta males are left to control the media as well as the White House.

You see, for the beta male, this is the moment of truth. Football embodies everything about America that they hate. They could care less about the brain injuries. They don’t like the athletes in the first place.

What football signifies for the beta male is a collective of bad memories from every young man’s high school experience multiplied by years of resentment. American heroes, be they soldiers or athletes, are seldom beta males, and now America’s embodiment of the alpha male, the National Football League, has just been made fair game for disembowelment.

I just hope that whatever the media elite and our Washington betters decide to do with the sport, they will not replace it with soccer; although as America slips into Socialism, it would make a fitting end.

S&P Annual Performance After a Big January

February Worst Month of Post-Election Years $DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM

Day of Month Seasonality for February

Asset Allocation & Rebalancing: (Still) Competitive Together

Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems

Some of these posts, and more, can be found over at The Whole Street, Quant Edition.

Interesting to see $NFLX make the list…Also, $SNFCA has just been absolutely incredible. It looks like it may be consolidating before breaking out, yet again.

Have a great weekend!

The system did 2.9% in January. Not great, but coming off of December, where it added 6.3%, I’m not going to complain too much.

$SPY gained 5.12%.

Since 1.1.2012, $SPY has returned an annualized rate of 16.03%. The Fidelity Rotational System has returned an annualized rate of 14.87% (not including a return on cash). Again, not great, but when we do experience a serious correction, I believe the risk management the Fidelity system offers will allow it to overtake the $SPY performance.

The system is currently long Air Transportation, Brokerage and Investment Management, and Construction and Housing.

And by looks, I mean looks.

Look at the two charts below. Perhaps you’ll see the same thing I do.

Click on the charts to make them bigger.

$SPY Daily:

$SPY Weekly:

What I notice is that the amount of time between the bottoms and tops has been getting shorter and shorter.

If this pattern continues, we could be looking at an intermediate term top in the very near future.