DOW 12k or BUST!

If I expect the DOW to go to 12k and the SPX to get to 1300 by next Friday’s option expiration (earliest) or by the first week in February (latest), does that mean I’m now ready to throw caution to the wind?

No.

Even though it seems as if the market is “to the moon, Alice”, only a few things have hit the lunar surface. When my little KLIC is up 30% already this year, I get both excited and a little nervous.

Interestingly, including today, the DOW is up just 300 points or 2.5% from the peak set during the first week in November. The SPX is up more, about 50 points or 4%. The Nasdaq has been where all the gains are, up almost 250 points or almost 10%. Of those gains, $100b worth is AAPL.

Aside from the more speculative and beta-producing Nasdaq, the gains have only been “marginal”. That means “not as much as you think”.

But today is a breakout in the world of technicians. If there is no selling, then you must buy. Asia is rescuing Europe today. What is their motive? It doesn’t matter as long as stocks are going up. The bullish sentiment is so stretched that it has come full circle, especially with GS expecting the SPX to hit 1500 next year. That either means they are liquidating everything now–or we will reach their target is a month or two.

Dr. Fly has it right. Put away your brains, knowledge and logic and just believe. Until everyone tries to get out the door at the same time that is…Then you’ll be stuck along with the newly converted.

The best strategy for investors is to try and hold through this risky and overextended market. Pick your spots to take profits and don’t look back. Traders should just hit and run but be ready to go “the other way”. Realize that nobody is “going the other way” any more so it is only a matter of a short time until it will pay to do so, bigtime.

ADDENDUM: My run for the gold is “tounge in cheek”. We could easily get to 12k. But it is all the more reason to run from the lies. Yesterday and today are seminal days that will be viewed as the cusp of an  important turning point…

When I heard about the CDMA iPhone, I bought QCOM and made a 20% profit. Plus I added to my existing VZ position, now up 25% plus dividends.

If I would have just bought AAPL, I would have watched the stock ramp 100 points/40% since September. It gained $100 billion in market value. Between one earnings reporting season the stock gained $100 billion in market value.

Now I ask you; do you think the new iphone is built-in to 10x perfection? It obviously doesn’t matter because every hedge fund keeps buying day after day. In fact, in just one week, the stock has added about $20 billion in value.

Are these people insane? Maybe it is I who is nuts for not owning it but it will continue to ramp without me. I am almost ready to make a bet that this is the Swan Song of Apple.

Let the flames begin!

The FED made $78.4 billion last year. I’m gonna be sick.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-pays-US-Treasury-record-apf-1400765043.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

Now read my comments from November:

http://ibankcoin.com/scott_bleier/2010/11/12/the-fed-the-greatest-hedge-fund-ever-without-2-20/

Are you a buyer of stocks and commodities because the FED has your back? Well, guess what? You will be the bagholder. The FED is already taking profits on your ass as we speak.

The newly revealed fact of FED profits is the hight of chicanery and subderfuge. The world of investing is being taken for a ride. And the worst thing about it is that it has taken $2 trillion to make $80 billion! 4%! The same profit margin as your supermarket!

Needless to say that I am disgusted…

We all try to analyze news and anticipate market action. We pour over balance sheets and try extrapolate the future. We look at indicators of all types and try to determine future market prices. In today’s market is is all just a reason to spin our wheels. In other words, all these machinations are total bullshit.

There is only one thing that determines the near-to-intermediate term market action; easy money and liquidity.

Do you wonder why the dip is bought? Look no further than ZIRP. Wonder why there is no pullback while QE I, II, etc. is underway? Why do you think indicators based on technicals or sentiment stretches to historic levels?

All of the comments of a government controlled market, of how the Fed Chairman lies to perpetuate his ends, and the conspiracy theories are all true. Buy until the money ceases to freely flow. I know that it seems awfully simplistic and that doesn’t mean to be stupid about chasing . But it is the 100% gospel and honest truth. Almost nothing, and I mean short of a nuclear war, really matters. This is what the entire Wall Street and Banking complex lives and dies by. Everything else is just noise. 

That is all. Have a great weekend!

“THEY” told you not to bother with this ultra-safe, boring yield-oriented stock because it was not “growing”. Even with the worst-kept rumor of the decade, the Verizon iPhone, you were told to stay away. IDIOTS!

We own at 29 and most recently recommended it at 26.50 and 30. Our target has been 37, but I bet it touches 40.

From CreateCapital/CreateCoin Premium…

I’ve been preaching to raise the stops on your long positions. Perhaps to even lighten up and to sell while it’s easy. Many of you who bought with me in mid-to-late 2010 have done so.

There are also those who came out of their bearish bomb shelters when the major indices were up 20%. You are the latecomer and if you don’t sell or protect yourself, you’ll be the bagholder.

I have a suggestion. Buy some protection. It is relatively cheap to do so. If I’m wrong, you’ve bought some insurance. If I’m right and we soon test the low Dow 11k area, then you will be thrilled.

The fact is that in the space of in-between just one earnings reporting season, the major indices have rallied 25-35% and some commodities double that. But don’t worry the Fed has your back, the economy is roaring and happy days are here again–AFTER a big rally!

Our perception of “goodliness” is based solely on the markets performance and the market seems very illiquid. Case in point; yesterday’s New Year pop was on very low volume. 25% of the entire day was run at the close! The lights are on, but nobody is home…Please be careful out there!