I’ve almost been hit by a Google Bus three times.

Twice on 19th Avenue during my commute to Los Altos in Silicon Valley, and once crossing the street in my own neighborhood.

When my friends come visit form other locales they are shocked by the high use of mobile apps:

“Dude, we’ll just take Lyft Line”

“What’s a Lyft?”

…

“You rent your car out to strangers?”

“Yeah man, otherwise it is just sitting there, and the less people that have to own their own cars, the easier it is for me to find parking.”

…

[Getting out of the Lyft] “Don’t you have to pay the driver?”

“Nah dude, the app pays them with my card.”

They’re also not used to seeing exotic cars just parked on the street in neighborhoods, like this: (that’s an Audi R8 V10)

It’s not all hipster science fiction come to life, it’s expensive, and it only seems to be getting worse.

I’m all about Manifest Destiny, and I see a lot of that here. Unfortunately, there also seem to be some folks that are moving here because it is trendy, and are here purely to consume, not produce. That’s great when there is not a surplus of producers, but when the bid’s hitting the ask, and more, it makes it hard for a lot of people. If a couple wants to live comfortably in a one-bedroom apartment in my neighborhood they need to make–while putting a tiny amount away for a rainy day–about $180,000 a year combined. That will never buy you a house though, the only way you can make that and buy a house is if you work for a company that goes public. The two-bedroom flat above us recently sold for $1.97m(mm for the old finance folks out there), the folks who lived in it before only did so for like 15 months. They bought it for $1.27m, and made the difference in the process. On average you need a downpayment of 20%, for $1.27m that would be $254,000, so how did they get that?

Well he works for a software company and she works for a social media platform, he sold some of his stock, and she sold some of hers after the lockup expired. Bingo, there’s the down payment. Now this sounds great, like “come on down, anybody can do it!” This isn’t always the case though. In the case of buyers, there’s a lot of rich kids moving here because it’s trendy, and racking up their families’ credit lines. They may not even be a substantial portion of the population, but with the ability to hit the ask so hard to achieve, their presence is definitely felt. In the case of being able to cash out an IPO, this is not always the case either.

I shorted ZNGA for the first time north of $12, I kept covering pieces, and adding shorts. I closed a large amount of shares around the $5 and $3 mark. Now, most of my friends who’ve had companies go public are worth about $500k when it IPOs. Most of them are specialists, or manage a team, so let’s say that most folks are worth $250k out of the gate. If they rode it to $5 they’re now only worth $102.5k in a stock that is capitulating. It’s not just losing the money, but the volatility, look at GRPN, TWTR, and YELP. If you work there and think you have a great product do you ride it out “knowing” that eventually people will realize you have a good product? Or, do you sell–even some of your shares–and then to go to work wondering if you should sell more, or if you shouldn’t have sold in the first place? I’d guess the vast majority of folks don’t consider it, they just have a large part of their paycheck inserted into the employee stock program. Either option sucks, if you are optimistic and do your job but the company fails you lose it all, if you sell some, you’re sitting there wondering if that was a good choice or not. Maybe you don’t care, you sold your stock for a down payment on a Porsche GT3, but I’m just trying to be logical.

Well the market comes back to touch my life, even when I am not actively trading. But, that’s the reality of the far reaching financial instrument. I’m currently in a UX design program utilizing real clients and instructors that are actual professionals in the field–I just finished week 3 of 10–if everything works out the way I hope it will, I will either land a job as lead UX designer at a startup, or a member of a small UX team at a startup. Otherwise, I will find myself as a junior designer at a large publicly traded tech company. Right now I am looking like a pretty high draft pick, but I have to remain humble and not try to make this a competition.

If I land with a startup, that hopefully goes public, or a publicly traded company, I will be managing risk accordingly. I will separate my market analysis from my product analysis, scaling off stock when I think appropriate, and adding to the stock buying program in the same sense. That might seem messed up to some people, because you “NEED” to be 100% committed to your product, but UX design teaches you that users don’t always act in a logical matter. Neither does the market, in fact it is the antithesis of logical these days. If I was to sell on the first lockup expiration, or after a year at the public company, then maybe I can buy the place upstairs?

I have a lot of problems with SF: taxes, politics and especially extravagant bull shit like The America’s Cup–tickets were too expensive for anybody but rich people, look at the target demographic, and not to mention the cost to the city and its residents–but I love the innovation and thinking. People are really trying to find ways to make people’s lives easier in an overcrowded world, in a responsible way. Plenty of people are in it just for the money, but those apps don’t do that well. Users don’t always mean profits, but users mean changing the world as we know it. Social Media has changed the world in so many ways it’s unfathomable, and it will only continue to evolve. Monetizing that is challenging, but the effect is obvious and overreaching.

MIght we see user’s views exceed dollar returns in equity valuation, or am I just living in a bubble? Arguments could be had for both, and I’d love to hear your opinion in the comments.

Note 1: I did 3x 5 min rounds on the heavy bag today, my hands are wrecked, and my left knee is barely there.

Note 2: VCs are pretty smart money, if they exit on IPO, what does that say for the company? What if they sell a large portion of their shares?

One last thing, when you say to yourself “how the hell did that piece of shit get VC funding?” I’ve run into this scenario twice.

At two different tech meetups while talking to folks, I was commenting on the trouble I was having getting funding for my startup, and both times a guy said he had just raised x-amount of funding, both in the millions. When I checked out their startups on AngelList, and looked at the main investors, the investors had their same last names. A quick google and trip to Wikipedia verified that, in fact, their main investors were their fathers. This isn’t to say that their products are bad–I don’t think either is useful–but that’s awesome they get to try and live their dreams. The rest of us, however, have to do it the hardway.

The following is me when I hear someone trying to pitch their startup on the 30x bus in the morning, or maybe it’s me when I notice someone’s farted on the crowded bus.

Thanks for reading,

The Once and Future Rhino

Here I sit, broken hearted

Went long solar

When I should have shorted

Now my book, sits in the red

If my wife founds out

I’ll be dead

That goes out to the two trolling idiots yesterday. Here’s what solar looks like today (the solar I am watching), with the market positive, and decent volume.

FSLR -6.5% (now -7.9% in the short time I was writing this)

TSL -3.64%

LDK -3.03%

Now, STP shot up today too, and seeing as I covered after making ~70% in this name, I am waiting to get back into it.

I might start/add short here, but I want to wait a few more minutes.

Solar, led by FSLR, is ripping. Have you actually read through their guidance? Almost all of this “positive guidance” is based on changing revenue recognition for one project. Remember accounting 301, PAL?

I will wait in the high grass while all you longs dance and be merry, getting drunk off of your profits. Then I shall unleash my horde of Vikings upon, slaughtering you, taking your profits, and sending Solar back to Hel. Hel will receive you, and put you right to work.

I will be doubling my short in LDK and TSL, and starting a short position in FSLR– when the time is right. I know the time is right when the Odin’s ravens descend, showing me the sign.

I’m your Hucleberry, let’s play.

I’m really interested to see if KMPG was giving insider information to Carl “Princeton this, Princeton that” Icahn. He didn’t seem to know anything about the company when he was interviewed, so I don’t think this is some far off conspiracy theory. If he was to get caught, I’m sure one of his underlings will take the blame, and he’ll say that “he didn’t know anything about it.”

If this is the case, we’ll all know the truth, and may Thor’s hammer fall out of the sky and smash his brain in. I have no tolerance for cheaters, especially if they are cheating purely to be bullies. I couldn’t care less about him going to Princeton, especially since he got a degree in worthless Philosophy. Philosophy professors can philosophically kiss my ass, because I don’t want those dirty old beards near my body.

In other news, FSLR is ripping on bullshit news, causing my Chinese solar shorts to squeeze my head within a vise. This is okay, I shall release the pressure by doubling my position, when the the time is right, PAL. LDK TSL

If you don’t understand the title, please bang your head on the nearest wall, and don’t read the rest of this post. Trust me, it’s a waste of your time.

Two questions I have been receiving lately are as follows:

“Hey dude, I’ve been running religiously since January, but haven’t seen any results in a couple of months.”

“How’s it going man? So I’ve been following XYZ’s trading program/book, and I’m not making any money. I’m actually losing money, what should I do?”

The second is far easier to answer. You can’t force things things to happen, well most of the time. Unless you gave the money to buy a few million shares of something, you’re not really going to make that much of a difference. So the key is to buy stocks with more buyers than sellers, and short the inverse. He didn’t get it.

Look, unless you are going to do a ridiculous amount of research on the fundamentals of a business and its competitors, you need to buy stocks with momentum, and short those whoa re getting kicked in the mouth. I had to learn this the hard way, I’ve shorted plenty of stocks in the middle of a run up, only for them to run higher, and if I’m lucky, break even. I had to learn patience, and now if I am doing a swing trade, I wait for the stock to move first.  Could I make 25% if I’m lucky and pick a top/bottom, sure, but I’d rather take 10% and not risk the loss, PAL.

Now to the first question. I don’t train for aesthetics, my body is pretty, it’s not in perfect proportion, and Marc thinks I have little pale calves. Training for aesthetics just won’t help me reach my goals, but I look better than probably 80% of people out there, a nice side effect of hard work. I know– not think –that the majority of people do not want to work hard to obtain something, and when they do, they usually only want to do it the way the main stream “pros” say to, or whatever their perception is of how to do it.

My friend has been doing nothing but running, saying that he lost 15 lbs in the first 6 weeks, after running 5 days a week. He’s up to 4 miles, 5 days a week, but the weight loss has stopped. He lost weight in his face and arms, but still has a bit of a belly. The first thing I said to him was “do you want a runner’s body?” He didn’t understand, so I explained it to him. Like this:

Adding on the fact, that his body would try to keep that fat, because his diet is wrong, and he isn’t building any muscle. “So I’m going to have really skinny arms and small shoulders, but not have s six pack?” Yes, if he continues like this. There’s no one perfect way to do things, the same goes with fitness. Running is just one tool, if that’s all you do, and all your body knows, it is going to adapt to it, and it will just become a normal part of the day.

I’m not bashing skinny runners here, go look at most power lifters, they are square bowling balls. If you want to be great at anything, it takes a balanced approach; fitness, trading, etc. He refuses to join a gym, and I told him it will be almost impossible to reach his goals without doing so. I gave him the best program and diet I could, because well, he lives in Snap City, and is afraid to work hard.

The two biggest things he is doing wrong is running roughly the same route/distance, only running, and eating a huge bowl of Oatmeal first thing in the morning. All of the above effectively shuts your metabolism down completely. I generally don’t eat any carbs until after I am finished working out for the day, or right before a max effort workout.

Want to be a good trader? Diversify, and the same goes for building a good body.

This market is as flat as Deveraux in June. Thus, most of you chose not to paddle out. Trading is thin, Twitter is dead, and CNBC is boring. Will we see a ramp up into the bell, maybe, but that’s doubtful.

I frankly don’t care if the market is “up” or “down” currently, as it’s nothing more than a ruse. The titans are absent, with mere humans– like myself –left to try to find pockets of volume. No thank you, I’ve an empire to build.

Now, please excuse me as I kick P off of a cliff, and watch my book drift in the current less waters.

I was a little mad at History channel in this episode, because they gave away the story, but if you’re haven’t read the Norse Sagas you don’t know. It’s like reading the bible then watching the show, I guess.

It started out so great, with Ragnar challenging the Earl to personal combat. This got into the Earl’s head, and everyone knew it. His wife was scared, and knew what was going to happen. While her daughter had to be a slave to the old dirty man from Sweden.

In a great one-on-one battle Ragnar beat the Earl, and became Earl himself. Shortly thereafter, Ziggy kills the Swedish king. Everyone pledged allegiance to Ragnar and his family, including Rollo. But, Rollo whispers in his ear asking how they will be equal. We all know that Rollo likes Ziggy and her daughter – the widow and daughter of the late Earl. He visits her to let them know they will be okay.

There is a great celebration and one of the Earl’s slaves– who chose to be –is sacrificed to the gods. Her’s and the Earl’s bodies are sent out on a ship and burned. Ragnar denies Ziggy the right to set flame to her late husband’s pyre. There is a great celebration, then the scenes cut through winter.

Once the spring comes Ragnar heads back to England with his usual crew, more ships, and an old Viking that had asked to get the chance to die in combat when he pledged allegiance. We see that King Ælla is preparing for him, though this time Ragnar has more than one ship, and has sailed up the River Thames to the capital of North Umbria.

I was going to give you an overall prediction, but that would give away the story, so all i am going to predict is that Rollo is either married to Ziggy or her daughter.

I am short P, and today it got pile-driven, to the tune of -7.6%. They have a good balance sheet, but that’s about it. Spotify has made them almost irrelevant, and with iRadio coming from AAPL, well, goodnight.

P is like the whiny little rich kid that thinks because they have come up with one decent idea, that they should be given the keys to their dad’s company. They have said multiple times that they cannot make money by streaming music, because of the royalties to be paid to the music industry.

Why would anyone want to invest in a company that says it can’t be profitable, unless the rules are changed? They do not have the clout to change the royalty rates, but I believe AAPL does, and they also have the ability to drop P’s app from the App Store. Remember Google Maps? iRadio is far easier to implement, then map software, no one is going to get hurt if their radio station takes them to “Heavy Metal,” instead of “Metal Drums.”

P is going to take a monster hit, and continue down. Then I think YHOO will buy them, but it will be too late. At the same time, Spotify, having real connections with the music industry and Silicon Valley, will “partner” with GOOG. P will be left sucking its thumb, saying “but guys, remember me?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDkW462K_Bw

I don’t know how I feel about this whole 3D printing thing, I want it to succeed, but I feel it’s like Industrial Hemp– an uphill battle. The other thing I am trying to figure out, is this stuff is made out of plastics, polymers, and metal alloys? Why not just use a cast, or a CNC machine? I think that’s the issue here, you already have companies like Dupont, that can do anything with plastics, and every “Hot Rod Shop” has a CNC machine.

I understand these require pouring materials into a mold– that presents challenges for consistency, –and cutting material away from a block of metal like Aluminum, creating waste, but what is the cost to switch? Is it the right thing to do for the environment, in that it wouldn’t require as much mining, but would it not have a negative reaction elsewhere?

Here’s what current printers use, from WikiPedia:

Look at XONE‘s chart, it’s ridiculous, and like a frat boy that does a bunch of blow in Vegas for his friend’s 21st birthday, it gets way up to the top of the world. These longs are on a coke binge, doing shots of cheap tequila, then heading to the nearest bathroom stall for some “key bumps.”

You thought you were cool last night, PAL, but you never were. You might have the talent, PAL, but where’s the need? You have to convince the big boys that you belong to be there. All your “profits” are great, but what are you making? How are you changing the world? If you fill some small little niche that makes people’s lives/business processes better, that’s great, but that doesn’t deserve a ~16% surge in one month since your IPO. You’re a short, unless you can prove me otherwise, Friendo-PAL.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I would rather try to get in early with a tight stop, then wait for it to capitulate, and only pick up 5%. I’m short this thing, with a stop at 8% above my cost basis of $31.12– ( $33.06). I think this thing gets kicked down the proverbial stairs, all we need is a little pullback, and it’s gone. Think about when it IPO’d? Right at the end of a record hitting bull run.

I have to read some “sell-side” stuff, and see if “The DR” can help me build a model. I honestly thinks it breaks $30 soon, and wouldn’t be surprised if it tested the 50 day SMA– HOLY SHIT! I just used a technical term –down near $28.70. If it breaks that, and the overall market is pulling back, it’s going down into the $25 range.

Just my opinion.