CRYSTAL BALL: Icahn Versus Ackman


Don’t mock the Crystal Ball, ingrates, or you shall be sorry. You’ll curse the day you ever spoke badly about the Crystal Ball, when the ravens come to pluck your eyes out.

[Edit: This was brought on by TPain’s comment in this post]

What it says about Icahn:

  • Mr Icahn has achieved a lot in his lifetime, but he is getting old. Much like a champion in the twilight of his career, he’s slowing down and the knockout is coming far easier.
  • He still has a great team/staff/fight camp, but that doesn’t stop gravity, and “Father Time.”
  • His recent actions– and words –have painted him to be a bully. Taking a stake in a “top hat-less” company like HLF, looks like a vengeful move from a semi-unhinged, angry, man. That is also far past his prime.
  • Bedsides looking like a bully by jumping into HLF, with no real thesis, he called Ackman “that little Jewish boy on the school yard.” They are both Jewish, from New York, this makes Icahn look like he is bullying one of his own– on the schoolyard (market) –out of some vengeful spite. No one likes a bully.


What it says about Ackman:

  • Everyone lauds Icahn as being a Princeton grad,  but he only (comparatively) has a BA in philosophy from Princeton, where as Ackman has a BA from Harvard, and an MBA from Harvard. (I don’t give a shit about education, but everyone– including the crystal ball –does).
  • Ackman is coming into the peak of his career at 46, and is far more nimble than Icahn.
  • Even if Icahn tried to “ruin him,” Ackman has plenty of time to recover.
  • JCP is getting crushed as of late, especially with yesterday’s news. I think Ackman is going to come in and take a more direct approach,– more than likely –hiring a Harvard friend to be the CEO.
  • After getting back to being profitable, riding a huge short squeeze on the news, Ackman is going to start to sell. He will use the excuse that he needs to free up cash/capital for a new endeavor, but really he’s trying not to get Corzined [sic].
  • He’s going to learn from this, buying into garbage companies are not worth it. It’s much easier to make 20% on a company that has hit a plateau, than 200% a company kicked off of a cliff.

I’m not going to give you guys any calls tonight/this morning, because North Korea is acting crazy. I can’t call it knowing there are psychopaths sashaying about in their psychotic castles. I’m just happy to be short P.

This goes out to @The_Real_Fly. You’re right, Steve wasn’t a nerd, he was just so brilliant he was arrogant. We can discuss this more later, if you want to.

8 Responses to “CRYSTAL BALL: Icahn Versus Ackman”

  1. Awesome post as always. Thanks Rhino.

  2. excellent analysis

  3. At 77 Icahn is up there. But the market is a battle of minds. He may still be sharp and disciplined enough to see the winning ideas.

    However it is very reasonable to believe that anger and spite get the best of him here.

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