I write this post with bitterness at helm.  This week has left little time to concentrate on markets and instead figure other things out as I knew changes were at hand.  Today I just found out I will lose a trading edge attributed to causes mentioned in this post.  For the last 3 years in my full-time job I was detailed to a rotating night shift that left me with the availability to do market research at night and trade the markets during the day.

Today I learned that I will no longer have this edge as of Thursday morning I will now be required to work a day shift starting at 6am and working until an unknown time Monday-Friday.  This requires me to completely change my strategy as I like to swing trade in options and be frequent to the monitor as I do not rely on limit orders whether in stocks or options.

Now I ask my myself what to do?  I love trading and the markets in general.  But being away during most of the day leaves me without conversation via social media or in the know until after hours and that sucks as I always liked participation but recent events have left my concentration elsewhere.

While some of you may say trade via limit orders or alerts, I have never trusted these without my own eyes on the situation, ie. ISRG.  So now I will try to develop some sort of strategy in long-dated options expiration or in the indices that have lower volatility.  I can also look to go back to some pairs trading as well.  Either way an adjustment needs to be made and overall this sucks as I know I will be out of the game more than usual for at minimum several months.

Either way it has been fun to be in contact with traders via Twitter/Stocktwits and  will try to be as active as possible but these new hours will definitely hinder future engagements.

If you have followed or read my blog I thank you and I will try to to keep updated as much as possible.  For right now current obligations will hinder frequency.

Let it be known that I write this post under a hoppy notion (no Rhino session-ales).  This week I have been paying close attention to what is (or is not) going on with our politicians.  An absolute fucking joke if you ask me.  These people are not leaders.  I’ve always believed in the military as a fore-front runner in being able to produce true leaders.  Example, a 19 year old NCO leading patrols of 13 men in combat zones consisting of MOUT.  Situations like these can extrapolate leadership skills to all walks of life.

Now I look at these politicians that cannot come to a decision and must say they have remarkable skills of procrastination.  With the latest news it looks like the sequester will take effect.  Meanwhile many Americans are saying “How does this affect me?”  Honestly besides some slight inconvenience I really don’t think it will, and that’s great because if we can take some trimmings without big consequences that’s good.  But what if you have one of those jobs that are looking at a furlough?

This is where I get pissed.  Currently I work for the DoD, specifically the Pentagon who are looking to take some of the worst cuts.  After talking with supervisors and hearing scuttlebutt I am looking at a 20% cut in my pay check.  I will go from a 80 hour pay period (2 weeks) to a 64 hour pay period.  If you made $2000 every two weeks you can now look forward to $1600 or a loss of $400 every two weeks and equating to about $800/mo.  Hell that’s a nice ride you just bought but is a fucking phantom as you can’t see or feel it.

Needless to say this may not effect the public directly as much but if you work for the government you’re getting the green weenie (military terms in force).  Personally I am looking to go from a life of :

• Fine craft beers to Coors Light specials or gas station malt liquors being on BOGO
• Single-Malt Scotch drank neat to Military Special Rum or Vodka mixed heavily with Orange Crush to dilute the roughness
• Fun-filled family nights at the Japanese Hibachi to shrimp flavored Ramen Noodles
• Nights at the batting cage for my son to at home with ping-pong balls and wiffle bat

Mind you I have no problem paying my fair share, only if cuts are across the board.  I saw what the sequester will benefit and it’s a joke.  Why the fuck did I not see anything about welfare on that cut list.  That is another thing that bothered me.  I love the days of pioneer (cheers Jeremiah Johnson) as if you were not willing to work or goes by any means to survive, you didn’t.  It was true survival.  As a nation it is all about “hey if you don’t make it you will be supported”.  How the hell am I going to teach my kid about the ethics of hard work when he can see that you will be supported whether you work hard or not?

Maybe I’m just bitter as I am directly affected but let me ask if you were to take 20% of your paycheck would you be upset?  Like I said if it were across the board then okay but its not and this sucks.  Needless to say I will survive and my family will too but damn I will miss the local butcher shop cuts of beef and now will settle for horse meat….and enjoy your Wal-Marted Great Value peas.

I leave you with this political satire that is probably the best I have seen since Monty Python’s and the Search For The Holy Grail. It is well worth the 3 minutes of your time. Also a song from NOFX:

Well after reading this post from The Fly I guess we plebs in the BN can welcome back Raul3 and Elizamae.  I have to say these gentlemen did not get kicked out of a tabbed blog because of lackluster content, it was just a matter of viewership.  We must admit gaining 3% of traffic doesn’t seem like much, but be of mind that this is going against some of the top bloggers in trading and finance ..no question about it.

I like to read many blogs and scour around and have a large subscription list in Google Reader and I always flock to the iBC portion first.  The posts are consistent and pertain to ongoing market activity.  Those tabbed bloggers of iBC prove that there is more to just writing your thoughts and it truly is an art that I have yet to learn.  It’s not just about content and these other factors come into play:

• Create a post title that makes the reader want to click and read more
• Have a theme that loyal readers know will be there consistently (ie. chessNwine’s market recap video, RaginCajun’s small bombs list, etc)
• Involve some personal stories that gain some insight to the blogger
• Be active on the social stream to where followers will gain further insight to reading beyond 140 characters
• Do post some content and be humble, know when you’re wrong and don’t be afraid to share
• Have some form of proper grammar and know when to space paragraphs to not make things look cluttered
• Don’t feel like you have to create long blog posts.  This is a fast-paced game and a quick 1 minute read is as good as a 5 minute read

Anyway these are some things that I thought of and I need to learn from as well.  Congrats to Rhino for continuing on and welcome back Elizamae and Raul3.  So you’re back to where you started but at least you made it further than others that were looking.  You garnered attention with front page attention and your content is still solid.  Either way, hope you get that set of steak knives (no-Miracle Blade II)

No market comments here just a story for the day.  After the market close I drove around town(s) collecting some goods for the week.  This is when I thought “damn some bratwursted sausages sound good.”  So I purchased them from the store and then got home and fired up the Weber charcoal grill, no gas grills at my place.

The problem with the weather here in PA today was that it was mid to high 30’s during the day and raining/sleeting.  Miserable weather but I had to have the grilled bratwursts.  So I grilled at the edge of the opened garage door as I often do when weather messes up my grilling efforts.  I ate the delicious grilled bratwursts and then later in the night proceeded to the garage where it was time for the weight portion of the workout followed by the pushups-situps-pullups routine.

I didn’t want to leave the garage door open for reasons of the weather and I don’t like people looking in my garage while I workout as this in the past has attracted beautiful women that disrupt my routine.  So I had to make a decision: put my grill out in the rain or bring my grill inside not thinking the burning coal would do much harm as the coals were dying down.  I chose to bring the grill inside.

Throughout the workout I was feeling slightly light-headed but not a crazy unusual occurrence and I was also having a harder time focusing and was more short of breath than usual.  I attributed this to a late night of research and an early wake coupled with current exercise.  Meanwhile I didn’t really acknowledge the fact that I brought the grill in and this was emitting carbon monoxide.

After completion, about 40 minutes, I went in the house and I was dizzy, light-headed, and exhausted.  This is when it occurred to me that the damn grill was slowly poisoning me and I probably was in a deadly toxic environment while pushing my body to exhaustion.  So in the process I probably lost some brain cells but in the end it was a good workout and I really enjoyed those bratwursted sausages on a grill that continues to remain rust free.

*I will attribute any future stupid trade decisions to this incident and loss of those brain cells.

Back on December 30th I wanted to highlight a chart sharing service with the name of Chartpin.  I went on to state how I could not find much information about this new site but I liked what it was doing.  Below you can view the original post.  Well it has been confirmed by @The_Real_Fly in his blog post that it is the workings of none other than @RaginCajun.  Yes I feel stupid as this was the trader I mentioned in my original blog post.  When I wrote that post I had no idea who was behind it as you can read that I did research and came up with nothing.  I also wrote about why I like the new chart sharing site of Chartpin and why it is especially useful for us traders that may be on the road and rely on mobile for trading and reading about what is going on in the markets.

Anyways I wanted to share the origins of Chartpin and my original post as at the time of writing I knew of the site but not of the origins and where to give credit.  Also I wanted to write this as I share my blog post to iBankCoin Blogger Network and just wanted readers to know I did not know that iBC blogger @RaginCajun was the creator of Chartpin and I wasn’t try to pump any traffic but was just trying to find information.  Either way I like Chartpin for reasons stated in my original post and I plan on continuing to use it.

Below you can find my original post:

When I was first introduced to trading in mid-2007 I fell in love with technical analysis.  While this may not be the method of many successful investors, I was immediately attracted to it as it made sense to me.  It showed where the price was at the time and that is all that mattered.  Then when indicators could be applied and adjusted through my own preferences that just added to my love for technicals.  While I like to include fundamentals as a supporting factor to technicals, it never made sense to me that if a stock had great fundamentals yet it kept trading down then why would it be a buy.  Needless to say I like to incorporate many factors in a trade longer than a swing.

When I was starting to share charts and look at charts from others I was attracted to @chartly.  This would later become a part of StockTwits, the trending curated site for market information.  I do respect what they’re doing as Twitter can be classified as the new yahaoo message boards for pump and dump stocks (depending on who you follow).

Now as a trader that prefers to have the TweetDeck always up, quick reference is important.  One thing that bothers me about the chartly function through StockTwits is that you had to click on the link for a picture of the stock.  It did not show a picture preview through TweetDeck as shown in the example shown below:

With that, I started to use the TweetDeck picture attachment function through Twitpic.  I liked when other traders used this or other photo sharing services as it provided a quick chart reference in TweetDeck as shown below:

With this I can get an idea of the chart I am looking and see somewhat of a picture.  If interested I can then click on the picture to see an enlarged frame.

The one thing I found missing using TwitPic was the sense of connection with other market/chart enthusiasts. I was not able to connect charts with those that did not follow me, much like what the chartly function allowed.  But like I said I did not like the fact that there was not that quick-reference function as just shown.  Through some reading of the @RaginCajun blog , his challenge of the #stockoftheyear2013,  and following his Twitter account, I discovered the chartpin site.

Upon further examination I discovered this site to be a go-to site for things I was looking for.  It is a site where you can post your chart and see the views, likes, & comments of other traders.  Also it has the functionality of the quick preview that I was looking for which you can see that through the previous image from RC.  If you click on the image it will enlarge or you can click on the link to see others comments as well.

Needless to say I am liking this application for chart sharing.  While I do have some likes I also have some suggestions.  Upon looking into chartpin, I find the information too obscure as there is no “about” or anything else on the site.  I do see an angel list upon doing a Google search but it is still  hard to find information about it.  Either way I still like what they are doing, understand that it is just starting up, but would like to create awareness and maybe some suggestions in features I and others may like.  I encourage you to check out this site and if you have any other information that I may not know please let me know as I like to what they are providing.

**Please note I do not receive gratuities or compensation from the chartpin site or affiliates but am a mere recent user of their product

About a week ago I received a newsletter from a well-known trader that has won the World Cup Trading Championship 7x.  I am not writing this to bash Chuck Hughes himself as he currently has and has accumulated more money through trading than I ever will.  I am writing this for the newer trader to be skeptical of receiving information via mail or email of stats like these.  In high school and to this day I always liked Diogenes.  He was a Greek philosopher known to be a cynic that went through the streets of Athens with a lamp during the day in search for an honest man.  Why many people may consider cynicism a fault, I believe it is a good trait especially in the military or law as you it will always allow you to keep your guard up.  While this applies to the job fields above, it also applies to trading.

Again, I am not here to bash Chuck Hughes himself as I have received mail coupled with email from other traders alike.  The problem I have is that these tend to target newer traders that are probably not starting with 100k but instead are starting with 5k.  There is one thing I learned through trading, allow yourself enough capital to be wrong more often and hone your skills.

Below is a copy of the stock recommendation I received today in an email I have setup specifically for those “enter your email here to receive” type sites and I received this approximately 20-page newsletter in the mail about a week ago:

Below is an hourly chart going back 2 weeks showing the price action and probable run-up off this recommendation:

Now this type of analysis is not my thing and I leave this to other traders that specialize in pump & dumps.  My problem is that well-known traders (with successful records) come in and push out these recommendations to lure in honest folk that are trying to learn the game.  These traders probably have not learned yet that this game is not easy and a lucky trade or two will probably end in loss in the long run.

My recommendation to newer traders is that if it looks too good to be true and a system is selling for the great price of $99 (arbitrary but you get the point) then you are probably getting what you paid for.  I have learned through subscribing that the best services are the ones that do not market or much at all.  These are the men/women that pump out information on the stream and may throw a link in there here or there, but on an irregular basis to where you would most likely miss it.

When it comes to trading services, be skeptical!  Be leery of stock recommendations you receive in the mail or those emails with volatile font size and highlights no matter who it is from.

I was absent for the most part of trading today.  Reason being for an orthodontic appointment for my 9 year old son.  If any of you are familiar with major dentistry fixes (crowns, bridges, etc.) or are familiar with orthodontics you will know that they don’t come cheap.  Now if you have a high-end insurance, yes maybe, but for the frequency of these procedures and what you pay for the insurance that cost can be argued.  Anyway, I took my son to the dentist about 1.5 months ago and he recommended that he be seen by an orthodontist.

This did not surprise me as I had messed up teeth when I was younger and had to get 4 teeth extracted just to get braces (crowding).  So looking at my sons teeth through the years I knew this call was coming.  Needless to say it is not a cheap procedure and I remember taking the monthly check to the orthodontist when I was younger.

But here is the problem.  Even though I notice that his teeth are a little messed up, he notices it too. He tells me that he does not like to smile because of his teeth.  Now as a parent, how could this not crush you?  I could not imagine any parent out there that would not be upset by this thought as any parent loves to see their kid smile.  With the thoughts from my kid and advice from the orthodontist  needless to say he will be getting braces.

When I researched the cost of braces and what my father paid 15 years ago, the damn price has not changed that much.  I couldn’t really imagine the price being the same but upon research it depends upon region and competition.  Right now I do live in a non-competitive region but this also is similar to the area where I got them 15 years ago.  But hell you would think through the years they may become cheaper.   In the end it is an “oh-well” decision and I just want to see my kid have that confidence to smile.  Also I was told that the braces would not be put on for at least 2-3 years (as permanent teeth still need to come in) so if I could not save that money then that is my fault as I know the demand right now.

So how is this trading related?  During the process I asked the orthodontist if I could lock in a price now with a agreed down payment and cost.  He laughed and said sorry I can’t do that at the time as they may become cheaper or more expensive.  Understandable from a business perspective, but I was just trying to make a trade.  As an options trader you know what I was getting at and this is exactly what options are applying to real life.  So was this trade unrecoverable in a monetaty sense…yes, but in a parents perspective it is priceless.

A great solo by Cliff Burton:

One of my favorite things to look into when trading is the psychology behind the trade.  This is where technical analysis can emerge as one looks at the psychology behind a candlestick or why support and resistance works.  Also when a trader transitions from a paper account to a real account they can see paper profits not transition to real profits and it can be attributed to the psychology of the trade.

While I have a passion for trading, I also have a passion for fitness.  My passion for fitness came first.  When I started to trade I could see the relationship.  When people come from an out-of-shape profile they work hard right off the bat but also expect results right away…but that won’t happen.  This also applies to traders as they read so many books and take courses but also expect results right away but this don’t happen either.  While the weak will give up, it is the psychology of both that puts them over the edge and creates success.

With the new year upon us I read in the January 2013 edition of Muscle & Fitness the following stats:

• 10% of resolutions are to exercise more
• 19% of resolutions are to lose weight
• 80% of people who join a gym in January quit by February (yes 1 month!)

I have to say I was a bit astonished by the last bullet.   When I saw this, the stat of successful traders comes to mind.  With this I think of a post by @smbcapital.  I suggest you read this post but it basically states that a person has a 90% chance of failing when getting into trading in a prop firm.  I find this highly applicable as we as a society become more of a quick get rich people more than a slow and steady wins the race people.  Needless to say I have read many other stats on the success of a trader and they all stated that the failure rate is high right up there with a restaurant.

How do I connect this with fitness.  Well I believe they have the same psychology behind the goal.  As the New Year resolutions are upon us, many of the people with those resolutions believe that if they are working hard they should see results right away (within 2 weeks).  While the results may be small at first they will not live up to the expectations.  Achieving trading and fitness goals require understanding and expectattions of the words: 1) failure, 2) tenacity, & 3) patience.  Know that you will probably experience all.

Failure:

Know that you have a high chance of failure in both endeavors.  It is easy to become discouraged after several bad trades.  You get the screw this attitude and give up.  Much like a person that has that fitness goal in mind.  You work your ass off for 2 weeks (which seems like eternity).  Give it another 2 weeks and then look in the mirror and I guarantee if you followed a fitness plan (with diet) you will see results.  I guarantee it and if you want to call me out then come near Gettysburg, PA and I will prove otherwise or you have a disgraceful trainer.

Tenacity:

I love this word.  In both endeavors you have to have it to push forward.  You have to have that inner strength to overcome trading losses and learn how to mitigate them.  In fitness you have to have the ability to look at yourself and say while I might not see any gains on my goal they will come.  You also need the ability to fight through the workout and say I will persevere.  Then you also need to say I will not indulge in a lot of junk food because I worked out but will stick to a healthy diet but allow yourself some cheat diets as well as to keep that part of the brain happy.

Patience:

So important in both.  When I started trading I blew up several accounts.  I then went back and learned what I was doing wrong.  I learned that I risked too much straightforward and did not have a scaling methodology.  I also learned that I became obsessed with gamma and did not let time work for me.  Option traders can relate as I became more of a rolling/theta guy through time with averaging in via price points instead of looking for the quick swing.  I will say though that I still love trading liquid options (look at pennys/weeklys) for those quick swings.  But this all came with patience.

Much like fitness you have to have patience. In reading that last bullet in that 80% quit within the month the one thing that comes to mind is patience.  Yes you may be working their ass off but you have to realize that it may be  several months or years of damage you are trying to overcome.  You have to give it time and stay true to yourself in exercise and diet (with cheat days!).  If you do have that plan of staying fit or losing weight please stick to a reasonable diet and high rate exercise equal to or in excess of 30 minutes and you will results.

Conclusion:

In conclusion it is all about those three components and do you have what it takes?  I always hated people telling me I could not do something as that drove me more.  I hope that readers have the same mindset as I am saying you don’t have what it takes…and that is not an insult but motivation!

Below is a video from music by Staind and training by Jay Cutler.  While there are many criticisms about bodybuilder enhancement use (which I can agree) I dismiss it from a psychological standpoint and look at their dedication to training from nutrition to workouts, and this is still a favorite video scene:

The Pub:

With New Years Eve upon us there is no other place as famous as New York City.  When I moved to Pennsylvania from South Carolina I placed myself 4 hours from the Big Apple.  In 2007 I made several trips to New York City and fell in love with the pub/sports bar Scruffy Duffy’s located in Hell’s Kitchen.  I loved the wings, the music, the popular wheel,  and the staff were second to none as they were folk from Ireland with great stories from the land and the accent to boot.

Good memory of folk in NYC:

This was a friendly establishment and one memory comes to mind.  As we were sitting there these other people starting talking to us.  It was two females and it turned out they were having a birthday party for one of them the next night at a local night club that I can’t even remember the name of.  So we decided okay we’ll go sounds fun as we had nothing to do at night.  We showed up to the club and there was no wait or anything just yet.  So we went inside and were waved over to where the females we met the previous night were at.  All of  a sudden the area became roped off and the staff started bringing over bottles of Grey Goose and glasses…pretty cool!  Then these people started showing up and introducing themselves as so-and-so.  When asked what they did all of them had some connection in the NHL and there were some VP’s and what not.  Needless to say it was awesome.  Coming from a hockey state and farm town this was the best of both worlds as I got to meet people that had awesome connections in the NHL to owners and players and got a VIP treatment.  Never experienced that before in life as my parties growing were in barns or farm fields…this was velvet rope VIP treatment.

With that experience aside, in the summer or fall of 2007 I learned of this place shutting down due to high-rise.  You had to be kidding me.  I don’t know much about high-rise and income it brings or whatever but all I knew was that they were shutting down my favorite NYC pub due to this atrocity.  So I found out that they were doing a going away New Years Eve celebration of all-you-can-eat food and all-you-can-drink beverages I had to purchase and attend this event as a good-bye to the place I loved and the people behind that bar (that actually remembered us, great stuff!).  So then my New Years Eve  in NYC that I saw so often on the television as a kid from a farm town in Minnesota was about to be experienced.

The hotel during New Years Eve:

Well in renting a room for 2 nights a block away from Times Square at Paramount my room was cheaper the night before New Years but on the night of New Years Eve it was near $500.  Holy hell I was about floored but I had the money at the time and always wanted to say I was in NYC for New Years Eve.  Driving near Times Square trying to get to the hotel was a nightmare.  People were everywhere   Then the street I needed to turn down had a cop waving me on as people were everywhere.  So like a man playing Jenga and trying to make my way methodically I finally made it.  Mind you this was not a posh room but one where you walked in and the bed was 2ft from the door and the 2ft from the outside window with a private bathroom at least but right at the foot of the bed.  Needless to say the damn room fit a queen size bed and had a bathroom.

New Years Eve experience:

On the night of New Years Eve there were cops everywhere and Times Square was blocked off.  I remember leaving the hotel at just after noon and the place was packed.  You mean to tell me these people were waiting there for another 12 hours!  That just deserves a Mike Tyson’s ludicrous to me.  So we ventured to Scruffy Duffy’s and turned in our tickets and commenced to free drinks and later free food.  We then watched the ball drop with enough view and had to be a hell of a lot happier then those folk in the square.  Afterward there were so many people in the streets just wandering around to where there was no way in hell people would be able to drive.  Needless to say that whole area was a mad house, even several blocks over.

So in then end was I happy to experience it, of course I was.  Would I go to NYC again for New Years…hell no!

Below is a commemorative shirt I bought for the going away of Scruffy Duffy’s that I still hold 5 years later:

When I was first introduced to trading in mid-2007 I fell in love with technical analysis.  While this may not be the method of many successful investors, I was immediately attracted to it as it made sense to me.  It showed where the price was at the time and that is all that mattered.  Then when indicators could be applied and adjusted through my own preferences that just added to my love for technicals.  While I like to include fundamentals as a supporting factor to technicals, it never made sense to me that if a stock had great fundamentals yet it kept trading down then why would it be a buy.  Needless to say I like to incorporate many factors in a trade longer than a swing.

When I was starting to share charts and look at charts from others I was attracted to @chartly.  This would later become a part of StockTwits, the trending curated site for market information.  I do respect what they’re doing as Twitter can be classified as the new yahaoo message boards for pump and dump stocks (depending on who you follow).

Now as a trader that prefers to have the TweetDeck always up, quick reference is important.  One thing that bothers me about the chartly function through StockTwits is that you had to click on the link for a picture of the stock.  It did not show a picture preview through TweetDeck as shown in the example shown below:

With that, I started to use the TweetDeck picture attachment function through Twitpic.  I liked when other traders used this or other photo sharing services as it provided a quick chart reference in TweetDeck as shown below:

With this I can get an idea of the chart I am looking and see somewhat of a picture.  If interested I can then click on the picture to see an enlarged frame.

The one thing I found missing using TwitPic was the sense of connection with other market/chart enthusiasts. I was not able to connect charts with those that did not follow me, much like what the chartly function allowed.  But like I said I did not like the fact that there was not that quick-reference function as just shown.  Through some reading of the @RaginCajun blog , his challenge of the #stockoftheyear2013,  and following his Twitter account, I discovered the chartpin site.

Upon further examination I discovered this site to be a go-to site for things I was looking for.  It is a site where you can post your chart and see the views, likes, & comments of other traders.  Also it has the functionality of the quick preview that I was looking for which you can see that through the previous image from RC.  If you click on the image it will enlarge or you can click on the link to see others comments as well.

Needless to say I am liking this application for chart sharing.  While I do have some likes I also have some suggestions.  Upon looking into chartpin, I find the information too obscure as there is no “about” or anything else on the site.  I do see an angel list upon doing a Google search but it is still hard to find information about it.  Either way I still like what they are doing, understand that it is just starting up, but would like to create awareness and maybe some suggestions in features I and others may like.  I encourage you to check out this site and if you have any other information that I may not know please let me know as I like to what they are providing.

**Please note I do not receive gratuities or compensation from the chartpin site or affiliates but am a mere recent user of their product