Extreme Opinions Are NOT Being Rewarded

It’s easy to form an opinion in this type of environment, but mother market could careless about your opinion. Josh brown spelled it out perfectly today during the closing bell, don’t get chopped to pieces:

.@ReformedBroker is our guest host for the 3p hour. Here's his quick take on the market! pic.twitter.com/mbS0E024Qi

— CNBC's Closing Bell (@CNBCClosingBell) October 8, 2019

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Then Josh gave us this gem, and his $NVDA analysis:

Into the close! @ReformedBroker's last chance trade is $NVDA pic.twitter.com/mgQQlodMrr

— CNBC's Closing Bell (@CNBCClosingBell) October 8, 2019

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As Josh mentioned in the above clip, we are right in the middle of the 50 & 200 day moving average for the S&P 500. Piercing the 200 day moving average has been kind to the bulls 5 times in a row, since August. My guess is if we break below it again, mother market won’t be so kind. We’ll see….

Try not to make any opinions. Anything can happen here.

What an odd trading day to start the week. I was expecting the bottom to fall out this morning, but the bulls maintained their composure. It almost felt like many participants were positioned short given the jumpy price action intraday. And, judging by the after-hours session, it seems more traders are covering.

We could be in for one hell of a Tuesday, with free commissions across the globe (sans Fidelity), with shorts getting squeezed yet again.

As for stocks, $DOCU looked like the clear winner on the day. $UBER finally got off the mat with an upgrade, but I still can’t get behind it. $TSLA had a good day on more semi-truck news (I still own a position). And, the $MTCH recaptured all important moving averages. All four tickers were on Monday’s momentum screen, you can view the full screen HERE.

And, watch those tankers: TNK, FRO, SALT

October started off with visions of a $VIX Halloween, but soon turned into another 200 moving day reversal. As long as the 200 day moving average holds on the S&P 500, the bulls are in control.

It’s been a few weeks since we looked at the top ranked names inside Exodus, so let’s take a look at the list after the latest shakeout. I’ve imported the top 100 ranked names from Exodus, leaving out names that trade with little to no volume: CLICK HERE FOR CHARTS.

The link above sorts the list by average volume not the actual ranking, to view the rankings, save and bookmark the Exodus screen HERE. The talking heads on CNBC stated we needed to see $MU bounce for the market to reverse, indeed $MU did and made the list. $AAPL is also on this week’s screen. Here are a few of my favorite setups as we head into a new week, see charts below:

It’s pretty amazing that my current broker, ThinkorSwim, just eliminated commission fees. I guess we can all thank RobinHood for what is happening in the broker industry. The TOS platform is downright, in my opinion, the best platform– especially now with FREE trades. Why would anyone trade with RobinHood when you can get the same fee structure with a quality broker?

Stocks opened up marginally higher this morning only to be met with a trap door. This trap door ran stops and put us deep in oversold territory, even slicing through the all important 200 day moving average on the S&P 500. The last 5 times price fell below this average, stocks were immediately met with buying, creating short term reversals. See chart below:

The bulls now have levels to manage risk with today being a good stepping stone for stocks to regain their footing. Should we lose the average from here, all bets are off until we recover it once again.

$OKTA was a standout today from my last post, $TSLA not so much. $MU & $NVDA both made our momentum screen, also helping the bull case today. For a full look at today’s momentum screen: CLICK HERE FOR CHARTS

Let’s keep an eye on $ROKU, $FB, $BABA, & $LYFT here. Solid day for the bull camp.

The stock they love to hate, $TSLA, was one of the few stocks I follow that had a positive day as we begin the month of October. On strength, watch for a move out of this range:

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$OKTA is another name that had a pretty large move in its Exodus score today. Watch for a dip to buy and use the $93 level to measure risk:

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Here’s a look at the momentum screen at the close. We still have inverse ETFs populating: $TVIX, $ERY, $DUG, $SPXU, & $SKF, and technicals still favor the downside. Let’s see if we can get some panic selling at the open to buy. I’m still not eager to do much here.

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And, here are some seasonally strong stocks to watch for October:

The S&P 500 is trading right at the 50 day moving average, a level where the average investor looks to gauge the current trend. Most sophisticated traders claim that the moving averages are all balderdash, but it is a psychological level worth noting in my experience. The Russell 2000, the small cap index– a measure of risk, lost both the 200 & 50 day moving average today and does not look healthy. The Nasdaq, $COMP, lost the 50 day MA and appears to be gunning for the 200 day moving average. See charts below:

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What does this all mean? It could mean nothing. We could get some positive news over the weekend which at these levels could provide a great entry point for stocks. The opposite could be true, and bad news happens, leaving levels & moving averages far far behind. You could say we are at a make or break point for the market here. I sold a bunch of longs earlier in the week and am comfortable sitting on the sidelines until I get a better gauge on further direction.

No need to make stupid bets here, let’s see what Monday brings. Enjoy the weekend all and make sure to join us on the other side of iBankCoin, inside Exodus.