Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it?  Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4^th of July, when I tread lightly.”  And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!”  This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…

…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.

I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection.  Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.”  You shouldn’t.  I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.”  Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.

We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away.  SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked.  We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions.  You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship.  That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.

It’s a totally new world we live in.  Get out your space helmets friends!

So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes.  Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.

I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.

Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:

TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE

I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names.  I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.

O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell.  The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.

AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half.  Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.

F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.

ANGI is still “meh”

CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.

GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.

Enough, I grow tired.  See you homos later.

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Just like that we’re thrown into the month of July, like a Christian catapulted into the Colosseum to feed the lions.  The S&P futures via the E-minis have been all over the place, allowing traders to swing both ways intra-day with relative ease.

The main takeaway from the last 22 hours of S&P moves is we made new swing highs, taking us about half way up the big liquidation snap that started on 06/19.  Even if today marks the high for the week, it’s a damn good one.

The important matter is how the market chooses to digest today’s action as we approach the kickass 4^th of July.  Ideally, volume tapers off and everything becomes rather boring.  I would like boring as I sit 80 percent long, because really I only want to buy gigantic fyreworks (sic) and “blow shit up” to impress my relatives.

Imagine a scenario where we slowly print a higher low in-or-around 1600…wouldn’t that spook the bears?

Moving on to book talk, I sold ½ my YGE long for a 10 percent gain.  My track record in trading the name is still negative, but it was nice to land a win.  I still like the name even though it printed a nasty candle today.  I’m keeping my little ¼ on a tight leash.

I added to my Z and GS longs, in that order.  They’re about the same size now, which is about ¾ size.  I see a similar pattern between the two daily charts which is yet to materialize, which means I’m early, which means the high probability hasn’t set in yet, which means I may lose money.  I continue to jump the gun on my setups.

That’s all I did today, essentially pooling my wins from YGE into Z and GS.

I want to join the iBC crew on SHLD down here as I believe the price presents an opportunity to buy the name at a discount.  However, I’m backing off in hopes of slightly lower prices.  I may not see them.

Finally, remember when I bought RGLD sub $50 and then went on a dog and pony show, decreeing my greatness?  Anyhow I only scaled a small bit off and a nasty gap lower made the trade a net loss, but that’s not what I want to turn your attention to.  Instead, I want to discuss how I was offered sub $40 shares by the stock gods and not only did my spider senses fire off a buy signal, “The Fly” spoon fed us high probability statistics.  And what did I do?  NOT JUMP THE GUN!  I stuck my head in the sand.  It’s been a distraction to watch it rip 10 percent since then.  Now that I’ve penned my frustration, I no longer care.

Have a good one

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June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books.  Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.

We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains.  Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK?  It seems unlikely.  Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.

So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet.  If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan.  Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.

I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary.  Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate?  It’s simple really, like always.  The wealthy, like always, they’re confident.  They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index.  One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed.  Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed.  Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it?  The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load.  Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.

iBC Loyalists:

Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds.  They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position.  Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet.  UUUuughghgu!  Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions?  Yep, TPX.

Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name.  I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction.  Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?

I have 11 other longs aka peak position count.  I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:

AAPL (lol), TPX, F, FB, ANGI, YGE, IMMR, Z, CREE, GS, AIXG, ENPH

May Julius Caesar and his month bring gifts to my person and yours.

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Yet the sellers can’t gain traction.  Every attempt at sending price lower to fill the gap below stalls out.  The sell orders are pressuring the bid this afternoon in the S&P minis but not achieving any progress.  All of this pressure building up has to go somewhere.

Meanwhile, with the help of The PPT I found some shorts in ENPH and squeezed’em pretty well today.  I scaled some profits, but left ½ the position on in case the pain trade continues.  The weekly chart suggests it could.

I hopped on board Zillow today after the impressive Pending Home Sales Index, which crushed expectations.  I hate when a house goes pending, BTW.  When I was about 9 months into my hunt and houses would go pending in less than 3 days listed, I would chastise my real estate agent and damn the illiquidity of homes.  This chart looks mint and I want it to keep looking mint so I can size it up.  For now, I’m ½ size.

These F shares are working out, up around 4 percent since my entry.  So far, we’re looking at a v-shape bounce in a big consumer discretionary.  The same goes for TPX.  This is like the housing trifecta: Z, F, TPX.  You find the house, you buy the car, you buy the bed.

We’ve been trend up all week, which SHOMP-wise makes sense, but for all other intents and purposes seems odd.  Now the questions becomes, do we run into the 4^th of July?  If we do, I want to be in patriotic names, like F.

I’m still in FB, did you know that?  I’ve ridden through the trough, and now things are looking really good.  This also fits the suburban lifestyle, shack up and talk politics with your delusional relatives.  Note: I don’t do FB.

Anyhow, I’m 35 percent cash and long the following names.  I’ve bolded my favorites and they’re listed by size, largest to smallest:

AAPL (fml), F, FB, SODA, YGE, Z, IMMR, CREE, TPX, ENPH, and ZION

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The tape we’re navigating continues to be tough on me, hesitating to grant me generous sums of money.  I came into the day a little over 60 percent long, as where I was more like 80 percent long on the way down, so I’m not recapturing my losses.

Plus I own some overpriced AAPL.  I’m afraid this stock lost its momentum a few weeks ago and is now destined to drift lower until a catalyst presents itself.  And here I am, -6% on the name.  I suspect we’re seeing profit taking by the huge funds who have called AAPL home for many years.  After a lousy quarter, who wants this name on their books?

My only action today in the portfolio was taking a ½ scale on my ZION shares.  Regional banks continued their strength today and we reached my initial destination.

I’m sick of solar stocks and I own YGE and ENPH.  I thought about selling both no less than three times today but I wanted to give them a chance to regain their mojo.  Perhaps they would think about how cool it used to be when they would run hard.  I don’t know.  Put yourself in a business owners shoes for a moment.  Would you rather build gigantic solar panels on your roof to generate a fraction of the energy you need, or cut your lighting expense by 75 percent?  Lighting which in most business settings accounts for 25 percent of the electric usage.  If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times, “The easiest was for a business owner to place themselves in the graces of Premier Obama is to upgrade their lighting to CREE bulbs.”  CREE should have been accumulated on the dip…that’s your hindsight trading tip of the week.

I wanted to add to SODA all day and then I didn’t.  It just never convinced me.

Today was one of those sessions in the futures where I grind out all day long to compensate for two mistakes I made.  Then, sitting on a beige-green day, fairly confident the HOD was in, I got cocky and went long again and gave back my daily gains.  I made 1500 in profitable trades and 1650 in losing trades.  The lessons keep coming.

I’m off to tend to other business then swim no less than a mile.

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The degree to which I care about bond holders and their draconian rights is so low, I must defy them.  It’s all bullshit, I’m not buying bonds, are you?   Don’t answer that.  I’ll buy bonds when all you rusty bastards die and I get a real interest rate.  In the meantime, prepare to get Dr. Detroit-ed.

Bear with me, I have a point but I forgot to eat today.  Take your shoes off and let me explain something to you.

Every summer like clockwork something matters.  Alas!  Something matters guys, let’s get on the teevee and talk about it.  Pity many of you subject yourselves to such hubris.  Pundits know as much about these markets as my cat.  Unlike my cat, their reflexes are slow, their climbing abilities poor.

I key off the S&P.  Call me old fashioned, but I’m from the school of thought that the most traded financial instrument in the world leaves a unique footprint in the financial world, one we can derive much from.   I brought 1579.25 – 1580.25 to your attention this morning, good people of iBankCoin, because it displayed significant price behavior and a curious profile footprint.

Then I took to twitter, which is a medium I enjoy, it fits my fringe lifestyle.  And all day I stammered on about this level like a crack head:

“Building acceptance, building acceptance, future, future, way of the future.”

I would unfollow me, I don’t know how anyone stands it.  Nevertheless, the level was our tell on the day.  We’re back inside a very significant value area and the market’s next move from here will be the tell going forward.

Bottom Line because food: we have clear guideposts to the next market move, I’m betting it’s higher, there’s a bullshit scare every summer, and Dan Aykroyd’s humor didn’t make sense to me until like a week ago.

Top picks: F, FB, YGE

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I’m sticking to the China theme mainly because the charts aren’t over extended. I can get decent risk based entries in names that could produce huge returns. That’s the humble reasoning.

The subjective reasoning is the Chinese are coming. They’re coming for the US markets riding solar powered Godzilla monsters and they mean business. My list of China longs is, well, long:

YGE, HMIN, YY, RENN, HSOL, and MY (listed by position size, largest to smallest)

All together, the basket represents about 35 percent of my portfolio. May they all go total Godzilla on a town near you.

UPDATE: I’ve pinned all the charts up to detail what I see

http://youtu.be/9T8vlrPTkYA?t=41s

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I certainly hope I’m not beating a dead horse, buying more solar longs into the close.  If I had a time machine that could give me 30 minutes back, I would have bought either GS, XONE, or CHCI.

Especially el CHCI.  Watch that one tomorrow.

But instead I bought a trashy little stock that goes by the handle of HSOL.  May it burn my enemies like ants under a magnifying glass.

Fly favorite (and quickly climbing my ranks) IMMR asserted a nice comeback today and has the look I like.

Believe me…I see the $45 level resistance on TPX.  I don’t care.  They’re selling these beds like truck stop hot cakes.

There was some straight up voodoo going down behind The PPT pay wall today that had members laser focused on higher equity prices.  It scared me a little, I’m not going to lie.  It was like walking in on a séance while the devil plays a fiddle made of gold.

RGLD caught a strong bid on Hilsenrath mouthing off.

Watch what goes down tonight as the sun settles and biblical storms impress upon the east coast.  The birth is happening.  Tomorrow is my birthday and with it comes great power for Raul.  Galactic alignments, hail storms, and ABENOMICS!

I must be off, for many preparations must be made before sunrise.

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I’m feeling a little in the zone today so you must pardon my absence.  I’ve been crushing this S&P tape since 11pm last night.  Shorting, longing, more longing, and now I’m finally flat and in awe.

I made good monies today.

As I turn a more focused eye to these stocks the first thing striking me as odd is the lack of tenacious demand for solars.  It’s like the god damned secondary over at FSLR put a wet blanket on the whole industry.  Everyone’s still tending to their sunburns with coconut and aloe.  But I must let you know, Raul never burns, I only get darker.  And when I get really dark, things get weird.  By that I mean YGE needs to get moving NOW!

HMIN will cut dicks once it finally crushes this stupid 30 level.

DDD is still blowing minds around the world, building shit out of polymers and what have you.  Believe it or not, this company is still special even if Japan unwinds their monetary policy.

China isn’t getting awesome yet.  They will be.  Never sleep on the Chinese.

TPX is behaving excellent.  I think you have to keep the weekly chart in mind if we see follow through tomorrow.  That would carry some major implications.  Watch me crush this trade.

YY is going red to green but will always have a red soul and desire to kill shorts.

IMMR yes they have the haptics.

I bought more ODP because something about office supply stores gets me excited.

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I was caught out of position today in FSLR and as a result was stopped out for a single day 6 percent loss.  Listen closely, it happens.  The way I chase momentum, about 1 in 10 trades does this to me.

If you recall, I bought two solar names yesterday, YGE being the other name.  Interestingly enough, this position is sized the same as FSLR.  But pull up the two charts and you might be able to see why one stopped out and the other didn’t.   I’m not saying YGE is a sure winner here, the trade is still in question, but it is/was a better bet than FSLR yesterday at 3 pm.

CREE burned me too when it melted its heat sinks and lit the ceilings on fire here in la casa de Raul.  I will go to hell and back with this name though, extra devil.

Every other part of my book sucked less, which is good.  YY is at an important junction.  This junket may have already reached its destination as they say, but I would be remiss if I cut it after one day of selling.

My largest position performed admirably.  Well done HMIN, may your holding out for better days be met with strong accumulation.  I’m talking to stocks again…I need to bring this up next time I see my therapist.

I closed out the day with cash elevated back to 35 percent.

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