We get to hear from First Solar after the bell today and the stock is price for uncertainty. It has been priced for uncertainty since falling off its trend a bit in mid-June. Since then we’ve seen a long consolidation trade. I’m betting the earnings announcement breaks us out of this grind, but in which direction?
I would prefer higher, of course, so as to give the entire industry a fresh thrust of inertia. You won’t find a clearer picture of bracketed price action than the FSLR daily chart:
The next move should be a meaningful one. Full Disclosure: I’m long quite a bit of YGE.
Pardon my intraday absence, today was certainly one for the record books in tasks-completed terms. My head, it’s still spinning. At this point I’ve abandoned hope of completing today’s docket, stared out the window hopelessly, shot gunned my last Monster beverage (kidney stones in a can as I call it) and picked up my pen to debrief my internet people.
This was one hell of a trading session if you ask me. The SPY was dead tuna. I traded early on, via my /ES_F, putting in two really impressive trades, if I do say so myself. Aside very quickly: did you see scenario 1 on this morning’s market profile report? I wield a razor sharp fife before dawn and the market is my fiddle, dancing like I’m shooting bullets at its feet. I’m not caring so much about mangling that metaphor to bits. Anyhowdooski, I bought the LOD, so very nice, so very clean, grabbed two handles, then I bought again, grabbed another 1.5 handles and went on my merry way.
The volume was awful in the futures, it was like trading /6e_F back in my 3am polyphasic days. I used to run such a tight schedule I even timed my shits, times were odd to say the least.
In the stocks, I sold GTAT and END, nearly top ticking both. I felt like such a boss. GTAT reported today after the bell and guess what? They’re crushing! Something about the current economy and their involvement in the LED and solar game has demand picking up on their end. Indeud.
END was a little spinner for me, a marvelous few nights gaining all over it, then I sold out, leaving it without notice. But I’ll tell you this, if it keeps acting right, I’ll be back before you know it, especially because my girl Sooz is all over it.
All of the sudden and without warning, my cash was over 60 percent! Puke, I don’t care if we’re printing high water marks on low volume, there are stocks setting up, I needed more exposure. So this little piggy went to the market:
I bought ONVO @ $4.82
I bought YGE @ $4.00
Then I bought more YGE @ $3.96
I had a little bit of YGE kicking around in the old port prior to these purchases. I’ve been in YGE for a while now, we have a thing sort of going on, YGE and me. So…we’re going to make it a little more serious. Why? Because FSLR reports tomorrow, it could be a catalyst for the whole industry if they report strong. And if Premier Obama wants to hang his fedora on anything during his administration, it god damned better be outperformance by the solar industry in AMERICA. Home of the free baby!
And the irony of course is how I’m looking to benefit from this via a CHINESE solar stock, MAU!
Say what you will, but the manufacturing goes down in China, not our backyards, Gus.
ONVO I can’t say much for except, if I keep drinking these Monsters, somebody better be around to print me a new kidney, the tube that runs from my kidney to my bladder, a new bladder, and a new penis, because it’s all on the line.
Everyone’s getting their panties in a bind over tomorrow morning’s premarket jobs data, thus I thought it my public service to broadcast my book into the bell.
Enjoy,
Raul
Here’s my book, by size, biggest listed first and cascading in size smaller and smaller as the list goes on:
AIXG, FXY, F, CREE, FB, I, END, IMMR, YGE, GTAT, OCZ, BPZ, and O
As risk flies off the table today, my book is getting pulverized, down around 1.5% 2% as I type. Leading the march lower after taking a minute to wake are gold and silver. I told you this is a run-and-gun industry to mess with. EXK has given back all its gains already. Having scaled only 1/3 of my position off so far, I’m confronted with a curious proposition, do I cut the net and take my small door prize or do I stick to the plan? Sticking to the plan results in a small loss, nearly a scratch, but sticking to the plan could make a solid gain, I’ll give it another day or two.
Solar stocks are getting pounded to pieces by incessant sell orders also. This happened around mid-June and it was a fantastic buying opportunity. This time it looks like we’re all doomed…so it’s an excellent buying opportunity. The only difference between then and now is where the indices reside relative to the industry. Back then we were on pins hoping the bottom wouldn’t fall out of the entire shithouse, today we’re day one of selling from all-time highs…hmm…
My largest position is due for earnings tomorrow after the bell and the chart is suggesting nothing positive. TPX has essentially become a coin toss. I’m at a real crossroads here, sitting a tad under -3% on the name. I planned on lightening up before earnings but now it feels like a rip-off because I think they crush and guide. A betting man at heart, young enough to absorb a gravity hammer to the dome, I may just go for it…this is a young man’s game after all.
My pseudo hedge FXY is down nearly a percentage alongside the market. Cool of me to get fancy, no?
I’m not shorting the /es futures at all because I’m too distracted so no relief from that front.
On the plus side because there’s always a plus side, I took a ¾ size long into the F earnings, that’s helping a bit. OCZ is bucking the trend, but I doubt it can breakout amidst the overall market weakness. AIXG is undergoing a nice bounce back after Europe reported very strong factory data, and I have a modest sized FB long which I will carry into this afternoon’s Marc love fest. #timestamp that, we’re all going to love Marc Zuckerberg after today’s announcement. We’re going to gang poke him until he can’t see straight.
Don’t you know forces exist much greater than ours and they are determined to derail your momentum trade? GUY! You don’t want to play momentum trades too tight up here, at the precipice. You’ve got to be cool, relax, get hip, and get on their tracks.
As I type, TAN, FSLR, YGE, and ENPH are well off their lows, and you’re without solar stocks.
Time to play catch up, because they’re the best momo show in town.
The old me would be stalking EXK today like I did Miley Cyrus last time she was in town, but I’m comporting myself with a bit more grace and self-respect today…like Pepe Le Pew. I learned not to chase miners, EXK in particular, through a long history of daggered hairpin reversals. The name is volatile, I felt early on that I missed the action, therefore I did. I’ll have to tickle my fancies with something else today.
I’ve quite enjoyed being kicked in the scrotum this morning by my newly minted long OCZ. They came out with some preliminary earnings data rather out of the blue, and lo and behold they’re still combating supply issues. “SUPPLIES!” …no surprise. There are worse problems for a company to have, like no sales. Anyway, the stock market is the final arbiter. If the name doesn’t shape up into the bell I may axe it (no piker body spray puke).
I sold a bit more O which is fantastic, this trade played out LOCKSTEP, and now I have my final 1/3 which the market must work very hard to take from my person, as my cost basis (net of booked profits) is now $38.50 aka well below swing lows. I hope we take out the recent swing low, run some stops, and then I’ll add some back on. This is going to be my new AWK, collecting me a coupon while I skip to my lou though the market minefield.
My solar trifecta has me more pleasured than Lil Wayne ‘turked up’ on opiates at a stripper convention. Take your pick: YGE, FSLR, and ENPH the sector is leading higher just as prophesied by the immortal Le Fly and other iBC cast members. Use the green juice to power some CREE bulbs and you’re on the right track, guy.
DDD and PRLB did this morning what I like to call the bear pinch: drive lower, pullback for shorts to enter, make a new low, barely, than quickly rip higher, leaving asshole bears stuck in their underwater positions. Have a great afternoon you harry bastards, it’s hot out there.
RVLT finally lifted off and it has done so without me. I’m instead nearly balls deep in German LED play AIXG, down 1 percent. All dogs have their day, RVLT is a decent company, but they’re no CREE or AIXG fundamentally. RVLT is an instrument for degenerates to trade.
I’m happy to have paired my IMMR with some INVN because to me, they’re the same thing: new tech, chips. INVN appears to be more en vogue.
F won’t let good Americans in unless their 401-k is set to ‘auto-allocate’.
FB still wants to win, while you’re looking elsewhere.
I’ll never own enough Z, but I own it nonetheless.
TPX is still my largest. You will all feel its gentle wrath.
Who thinks BPZ has another squeeze in it? (Raises hand)
That’s my book in a nutshell. I’m considering an FXY long as protection. Call it Kong hedging. iBC is becoming a formidable beast.
My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below. Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.
Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.
I’m brooding so hard right now. But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!? Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it. It’s mine, I spend it.”
Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.
The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action. It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context. So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts. Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.
I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.
Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more. They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late. When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything. I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it. A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD. The next day it makes an even BIGGER move. Pair that with the following bullet points:
“On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.”
2.) It showed up on three of my favorite PPT screens too, including receiving an upgrade to BUY.
I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:
I took my first scale in O. You have to get paid when the market pays you. Now the move can either continue progressing or digest for a bit and I’m chill.
I took my first scale on TPX. It’s still my largest position and top pick. Next target is $50.
I bought PRLB, INVN, and BPZ like a cheetah chasing a gazelle.
I took cash down to 12 percent, and my positions, listed largest to smallest are as follows (top picks bolded):
The ETF SPY is on track to print another tight and gapped candle to add to the ADR collection we’ve assembled since the big liquidation snap. This is by far, one of the strangest and most unhealthy appreciations I’ve ever seen.
Nonetheless it is an appreciation, so longs are a-workin’
With the muted action taking place in the futures, making for a challenging day trading environment, I’ve been a spectator for most of the day. None of my charts look broken yet none of my stocks are reaching their targeted destinations. The exception I have is AAPL, which could be taking a turn for the worse. It’s certainly my lowest conviction play and every hour I think about selling it.
Two of my larger positions, TPX and GS are not doing much. I don’t intend to sell any TPX until $50.
My ANGI and Z trades seem to complement each other well. When one is feeling down, the other is up. Z is larger than ANGI, but not by much. You would think ANGI was kidnapping babies given the internet sentiment. I’ve never seen such disdain for a company, save for YELP.
People act like businesses owners have never had to grease a few palms to get the gears turning. What the fuck? You start a business.
ENPH is a daily epiphany since snaring the bears in that lovely trap. This is one of those exciting new companies where I never want to sell shares, but I must. My plan is to buy and sell but always keep a core, thus whittling my cost basis down into the threes.
FB looks kind of hot, finally.
My LED stocks are getting hammered today. Let’s face it, they’re up huge YTD, they may not participate in every rally going forward. I want more CREE, but will exercise stoic patience with the stretched name.
AIXG on the other hand needs to grab its schnitzel and man up ASAP.
F is extended, but I continue to view demand for this equity as pent up.
I’m currently at 13 longs. I prefer a max 12. But I need to buy something else unless I’m compelled to sell because something about 13 longs rubs me wrong.
Allow me to preface this performance report with a note about strategies, signals, and systems. There are a million different ways to approach the markets. Most approaches can be taken to profitability, and all approaches can make you insolvent. To consider one method better than another relies on the traders own subjectivity and how they view and comprehend an approach. I prefer simplicity and risk management because it suits my fringe lifestyle. I need a standardized method of assessing the risk a trade carries. That way, if I get a strong appetite for an industry, like solar, I can find a vehicle I’m confident driving.
All of this is fine and dandy if you execute according to the plan. Execution is where a trader is defined, and where money is made. When your ‘signal’ trips you need to execute it. Finding a signal and becoming intimately acquainted with it is the only way to consistently profit in the markets. When you take time to think, really think, you won’t be reacting and trying to think in the heat of battle, you can stick to the steady handed plan.
I had a really good thing going with the YGE trade and somewhere down the line I lost my vision and muffed it. Fortunately, when I returned to my study and in the evening recognized my folly, I made preparations to correct myself. My YGE trade net-net became profitable on Friday, but pales in comparison to the profits it could have generated had I stuck to the plan.
THE EXECUTION – Green arrows represent buy points, red sell points, to date:
That, my friends, is poor execution. I was swept into the sea of emotion on 06/20…do you remember how fucking nuts 06/20 seemed? It was fake.
Hell, we never even lost the 33 EMA on a closing basis. And we were clear above my risk parameter.
So what went wrong? Poor execution, friend. My takeaway is to keep position counts lower, allowing me to better assess my prescription risk plans before making decisions. When 10 positions are all down big, sometimes you just pick the most painful one and slow the bleeding, even if it defies the plan.
Like I said, I corrected course and I’m still riding the name, including taking half my position up Friday’s ramp, so I’m still pretty excited about this trade, all things considered. Now that I’ve booked some profits, and have a green cushion, I’m sticking to the following plan for the YGE trade, including riding though earnings, if necessary, to achieve my $5.00 target. Behold:
We thoroughly auctioned 1624 during the Employment Data drop, with algos tearing a rift in the market one nanosecond at a time. One day watch these announcements through the filter of a 2500 contract or 3 tick range bar and get a feel for HFT. It’s like a ballet.
Anyhow, the level was “auctioned” and we had the classic first move fake out, followed by the takeout, followed by the real move, which was decidedly lower…20 handles off the high. Now the ES_F is more or less churning and the afternoon may offer some directional moves, but you’re of better service to your clients or your own money laying off this tape.
I don’t know, eat a hot dog or two.
The only moves I’m considering are selling O, which would need to weaken further, or selling YGE, which would need to strengthen, further.
Otherwise I’m enjoying the view, talking a bit of smack on the twitter hater network, and consuming baked beans straight from the crock pot. Like a good god damn.
I suggest you stow your space helmet, but keep it nearby in case of an impromptu launch, pinning us north of 1624 on the close.
