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Tag Archives: $USO

Halloween Candy Only Market

There are crazy moves, both ways, going down in this market of stocks.

Early on we had a pretty solid read on the Nasdaq and S&P and we were talking through the psychology inside the 12631 pay wall.  I trade little blips in the gyrations of the NASDAQ and my current goal is not to earn money but instead to consistently identify, trigger, and manage one trading picture.  I have set the lofty goal of being right 75% of the time.  This is for me to prove TO ME that I have the fortitude to trade futures before committing adult money to the venture.

But I was watching my move play out and I started noticing excessive aggression from the sellers.  Have you ever walked up to a girl and started talking game only to quickly find out her husband or boyfriend is close in tote?  Said boyfriend often puffs out his chest and behaves like a primate because he feels threatened.  This is overreacting and once it happens you can almost rest assured you have won…something, life, the momentary affection of the women, whatever.  Market participants do the same thing all the time just before they lose.  The more you watch the tape, the clearer it becomes.

Anyhow, sellers started acting like scared bitches just before eleven and the S&P was trading up into the key battle line highlighted this morning.  This is what had me buying WDAY and WLT.  I got in before the pop and used most of my money doing it.  I am now 95% long and uncomfortably so.

So I went into my portfolio and tried really hard to find something to sell before the market makes me sell and I came out empty handed.  I know, it is completely negligent to be 95% long way up here but I cannot justify selling any of my positions where they stand.

I honestly feel as pickled into a catch 22 as I have ever felt in my trading career.

Off topic: I have sustained myself on water and candy ONLY today.  My eyes feel like they want to explode and gush sugar all over my keyboard.

Not chocolate nutty candy either…just the crack: taffies, lemon heads, now and later cubes, dubble bubbles (apropos), and jujyfruits.

Gallons of water.

Somebody convince me to sell one of these holdings, largest-to-smallest:

ONVO, PPC, RVLT, USO, LO, WLT, GOGO, ADHD, CREE, WDAY, SLW, F, LEDS, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and O

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I Am The Lizard King

I can do anything.

We sure do cover the /ES_F often over here on the Raul blog, discussing its…implications, if you will.  Building the contextual cake helps me to identify abnormalities, flinches, and hand tips by the big money.   The E-mini S&P is the most liquid financial instrument in the world.  It makes sense to pay attention to it.

But trading it has become a slow and painful grind.  It is like going years without a dish washer even though you love to cook.  You get by, but your soul dies a little every day.

I needed some change (No Obama) so I traded the /NQ.  I like the NQ…peep today’s stats:

NQ

Thoughts:

  • today had a large range
  • /NQ is thinner
  • smaller contract size suits my size a bit nicer
  • I trade lots of Nasdaq and Russell stocks so I may be concentrating my eggs
  • It offers more trading opportunities (at least lately)

/ES has been brain numbing, while I go ‘big pimpin’ on these wiry stocks.  Speaking of which, my book was up a percent today.  That is a result of stock prowess and hanging out with traders much more seasoned then me.  Mainly my gains today were a result of being on the right end of a technology revolution.  So while sour bastards get their kicks shorting Tesla, which is fine, I am embracing the future and finding opportunities to invest in it.

In short: CREE and RVLT what what?

I started buying ONVO too, right about at these levels.  You can’t keep me out of this name.  When my pickled organs give out I want robots around to print new ones.  Seems like a no brainer at five fifty.  I consider it an investment in myself.

I sold YGE.  It felt like when I sold VIPS yesterday…too soon-ish.  However, dwelling on these thoughts prohibits the mind from seeking opportunity elsewhere.  I sold RBCN too, for a loss, because it sort of just fell out after mainlining hot money.  I do not want to be around when the Apple WWDC crowd goes running for the doors, should they do so.

ADHD is a ticker which by design frustrates me, ripping higher like a freshman jacked up on Mountain Dew and Ripped Fuel.  Ah high school…when ephedra was still legal.  I have wanted a long on this one for a few weeks but my attention keeps darting away from it.  Instead I want to Snapchat and play ping pong in the futures.

I do not really love the way we are setting up into the weekend.  The market looks like the headless horseman.  Sentiment sucks but the crowd isn’t always wrong.  I have concentrated by book down to the following positions listed largest to smallest:

RVLT, CREE, USO, LO, BALT, AMBA, FB, ONVO, F, IMMR, MJNA, O

That jackass MJNA stock can burn up and go to zero for all I care.  What a garbage stock.  I am -20% on that field play.  I thought about cutting O about 100 times, but I figure keep it and collect the yield.  My basis is a tad below here.

Everything else I hold close to chest.  As a matter of fact, I need more CREE and RVLT but I am exercising patience.  Together the stocks represent almost 30% of my risk capital.

I will let Q4 play out a bit before getting more risk into those two names.  In the mean time I can increase my LED exposure via VECO, RBCN, GTAT, OESX, and LYTS.

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Whoa Nelly

After I sold MHR and VIPS it felt good to book the ten digit gains, and it made sense with my trading plan, but I suspected my mind had gotten in the way almost immediately.  But being overly concerned with booking gains would just jumble my mind further, so I jumped back into the waters looking for my next meal…essentially.

USO, perfect, full size

Bullet point reasoning:

  • “I’m an oil man”
  • USO moves slow like sludge
  • All my mind wanted was crack stocks
  • Was sitting on multi-month support, chillin’
  • An esteemed 12631 member and I discussed and agreed it had a good look

Two of those reasons pertain to how juiced up I was coming off of yesterday.  iBC Chief Market Strategist “The Fly”, the brains of this whole outfit, eased up and I felt overconfident.  Then I missed an entry I really wanted on ONVO.  Then I made an earnest attempt to punch a hole in a solid wood security door after storming away from my desk.

Yeah…it was like, cool out hot head.

So I stopped trading.  I stopped watching the market mostly, too.  There’s over 30% cash in my books and no doubt that I can’t trade my way through a deeper pullback.

Completely aside, the burning Tesla Youtube video has the stink of fabrication.  I have no intention of proving it.  But if all news is fake then so is this spoof video.  Well done.

All news is fake.

Good night

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Full Position Synopsis

Into the weekend I would like to very briefly run down my portfolio holdings and the reasoning behind each.  This information is coming off the rip after a long week.  Thus any thing with a flimsy justification may need to go.

Here we go, from largest to smallest holding:

Cash – I have 20 percent of my book sitting cash.  I’m eager to deploy it on the long side

SKF – I’m using a three year volume profile chart to view BRK/B, WFC, GS, C, etc. and I see a great volume pocket below prices.  Plus they’ve broken down off their respective highs and are printing tight bear flags.  The overall market is on unstable footing and I want some levered short exposure.

RVLT – Yes, it’s my largest long holding and currently the bane of my stock existence.  It earned largest ranking when I blew out my YGE and YELP shares this week.  They were my prior biggies.  The stock is trading worse than a bag of dicks at a hot dog eating contest.  There are no buyers and presumably a few large sellers cashing in on the 600% plus move that took place up unto the day I bought the stock.  The business model is stronger than ever, the shift in focus from consumer products to large scale retrofits is brilliant, and the investor population is still very shortsighted on the opportunity in lighting.  I still love this name, and I plan to cost average in through several quarters.

AIXG – My German LED company.  I love LED technology and I see this company as a beneficiary in Europe due to their energy awareness.  The stock has been dead money for months and I continue to hold.  Nothing has changed here, but this consolidation has excellent potential energy.

END – Huge short interest, oil exploration, and a hot chart.

CREE – Same as RVLT and AIXG, I want these names until incandescent and HID bulbs die.  I’ve been in since January, why exit now?

TRLA – I love their app and use it constantly, the chart looks great, Zillow has been a beast, value added to realty pros, and Le Fly is in the name.

CLF – Tight consolidation, looks like it wants to rip and if it doesn’t the risk is really low.  OA went YOLO on it this week too, although it never moved so that may have been a small loss.

FB – Marky Mark and the poke crew are getting it done.  Holding

LO – Blu eCigs and menthol cigarrets won’t actually get banned.  Interest rates need to stop rising, it’s making the coupon less attractive.

F – Still a strong chart and a nice product line.  This is a patriot long still kicking around my port since the 4th of July

IMMR – haptics are way underutilized by porn.  I think the porn industry will drive growth here 😉 Also, a Le Fly favorite.

USO – I should still be large but I took a bunch of scales on the way up.  I almost sold it all.  Look, that would have been really dumb.

O – it too pays a large coupon which is losing allure with bond rates rising.  I traded my favorite reversal pattern really well in here with a large position.  The locked in gains dipped my cost basis way down here.  So I’m basically break even on the idea, waiting to collect some coupon.

That’s my holdings.  I’m interested in a few other names, like SFM and GOGO, but will wait until next week to act (obviously).

Have a great weekend everyone,

Raul

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Scaled and Closed a Few Longs

I took some profits where I had them early on, scaling off some YELP and USO, and booking the final piece of my MHR long.

Cash up a smidge over 15 percent now.

UPDATE: Scaled 1/3 $AMBA long too, now a 2/3 position

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My Plan Is To Now Become An Oil Man

I cleaned up my books early on like I stated earlier, cutting out EXK, TPX, and AMBA.  Elizamae and I have been running charts into the sentiment cycle like a couple of kids who found gamesages for the first time.  Like we’re cheating on the video games, you see!?

Gamesages.com and gamefaqs.com take me back to the simpler days of the internet, where message boards were the beacon of truth and trickery.  I still don’t think I would have beaten the Nintendo 64 Legend of Zelda without those sites.  Legend of Zelda for NES, of course, required the printed manual until it was memorized and executed without reference.

Holy shit childhood was awesome.

All this I say to convey to you the fact that I like the setup in Oil (with a capital ‘O’) and I intend to play along.  How brutal was it to read that sentence?  Heheh

I started getting this going via END because I like that chart.  Don’t buy it, leave it here for me to think about and accumulate. They report August 6th actually so buy it with great vigor so I can sell to you.

I want to ETF into the pure stuff too, perhaps USO or one of its relatives.  I want oil to go higher.  I want gas to cost $50 dollars/gallon too, so the traffic goes away.  One of these thoughts is a dream, the other a distinct probability, I’d say oh about 70 percent.

I want oil exposure gentlemen, don’t hesitate to share your favorite with me so I can poach them and hang their corpses from my walls.

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