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Tag Archives: $SPY

Morning $ES_F Analysis

The overnight session has so far done very little except drift a bit higher and shows balance.  As we continue to trade above this key support, it becomes increasingly important that price make a decision, whether to go higher or lower.  The migration and acceptance of value will build some clues.

Yesterday’s profile reflects an opening drive lower by the sellers which had follow through.  Then, what resembles a steady accumulation occurred, closing us out near the high of the day.

Early on, I’m curious to see if sellers can push us back into yesterday’s value from 1634 -1625 and if so, how the market behaves.

It still looks like we could run higher to 1640 then 1641.75 and ultimately 1646.50 to see if it brings the same selling tenacity into the market as we saw last week.

Here’s the levels I’ll be watching:


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How Far Can We Go?

It’s a beautiful June morning where the birds serve as the best alarm clock in town.

My plan going into today is simple, which in essence, is elegant.  I have very little expectation, but I want to see how high we run up the single prints of the LANDSLIDE.

The overnight session has been consolidation with a bullish hue since trade opened Sunday evening.  I came to my desk for the open because I wasn’t sure if the market would run the zipper while everyone was enjoying their Bible studies or what.  It started to make its move and continues to as I type.

The primary objective would be retesting 1640 where all hell broke loose Friday afternoon.  We’re already halfway there.

I’m not certain where this market is going to open up at because it’s moving rather rapid for the early birds, so I’ll simple define my levels of interest and trade accordingly.

Notice: I’ve split the change in conditions out of Friday’s profile which gives us additional insight into key price levels.


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Key Levels for Month End

Very weak session overnight which didn’t start to stabilize until early this morning USA time.  So far the low of the globex session was put in at the value area low from Wednesday, and this will be our key reference level today.  How we treat a very possible retest of this price will be telling as we head into the weekend and June.

I have one level marked below this zone as an effective last line of defense for the bulls.

Above we have important reference points for upside power.  The first thing the bulls need to accomplish is pushing us back out of this large value area.  This will be no easy task but is certainly possible, especially if the gap trade gets momentum.

I’ll reserve any bias, and let the price action tell the story.  As of right now, we’re weak, but stabilizing.  If we head south of 1644 again a retest of the lows seems likely.


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Keep It Simple, Mind The Balance

We’re seeing some early morning strength but keep in mind we have a busy economic calendar this morning.  The character of this market could change in an instant.  Fortunately for us, we have the lovely market profiles to guide the way.

I’m more than a little thrilled to be back in my old school profiles.  Merging Thursday and Friday sessions together is what gave yesterday clear vision.  Look at the buyer reaction at the lows, it just so happened to perfectly coincide with the large distribution’s VAL.

Sometimes the profiles do all the morning work for me.  I’ve highlighted a few levels I’ll be watching, and how we trade relative to them will guide my positioning.


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Navigating The Swing Low

Well, it’s really more of a chop low, set last week and rejected over the weekend only to find us properly testing it this morning. How the market navigates this big, balanced distribution will be very important.

Overnight the S&P made its way lower without much resistance from the buyers.  We’re currently 15 handles off the high and seeing some very weak conditions.  The action has taken us back down to our Wednesday/Thursday distribution and rotated most of the way through it.

Whether the market can pause in the range I’m about to highlight or price cuts right through will be my cue in positioning.



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Taking Us Back to The Old School for More Clarity

We’ve had several instances of overlapping profile development recently, and it made me miss my old school market profiles.  So I’m bringing them back, yes yes, very exciting.

Thursday featured a large gap lower that was steady accumulated all session only to be followed by Friday’s holiday tape which also gapped lower and was accumulated all day.  Friday’s profile was contained entirely inside Thursday’s which is aka an inside reversal pattern.

I wanted to merge the two profiles into one after seeing their volume characteristics.  Once I’ve done so, I get a clear picture of the auction that took place at these prices, and the relevant levels to monitor.

I also split the big selloff into the early distribution and the change.

I’ll be monitoring the following levels as we open up this morning:


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Weak Pre Holiday Morning

Tip top of the morning, memorial weekend procrastinators!

The pre market has turned from moot to rather weak over the last hour, with sell flow pushing into the tape.  We’re currently trading at the value area low of our 24 hour profile which is also a high volume node at 1639.50.  We could see a bounce here, especially given the one direction nature of this most recent move.

Oddly enough, our profile yesterday took on the shape of a letter P which, in many cases, suggests we spent the session squeezing shorts.  That’s relatively uncharacteristic of a large gap down, but I know many long traders who were green come market close yesterday, so it makes sense.

The question now becomes, was yesterday a temporary phenomenon to the upside?  The attempt at filling the gap was impressive, so I give the buyers a pat on the back, but we are dealing with a heavy amount of sell flow in the globex hours.  It will be interesting to see how RTH handles this weakness today.

I’m keeping with the zoomed back profile to give us reference points to trade.


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Chopped and Screwed

I had three signals fire premarket that were victims of a choppy market, and were all stopped. Then when things got moving, the setups were of a nature which I still trade in simulation, and no additional live trades triggered.

Ironic as it may seem, all this early movement was not captured by the Raul.
Aside from the futures, I’ve added to my ANGI long. No other trades yet to report.


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Zommed Out and Measuring These Balance Zones

We have two major price zones to use as guideposts if this market continues to put in large ranges.  The balance zone above (which coincides with a possible gap fill) from 1657.25 – 1653 is our barrier to the upside, and the lower zone, our major support, spans from 1628 – 1623.  It’s best to view these areas on the volume profile charts to see their significance.

In between, we have a low volume slip zone that the overnight session had some fun sliding down and up through.  I’m not going to inject much bias into this piece, I’m simply defining interesting reference points, and seeing how we behave today.

I want to see if they can form any semblance of a gap fill.  How well that goes (or doesn’t) will be telling.



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These morning markets, I come to them every morning.  Much like The Zen Hunter alluded to about surfers, it’s an obsession—every day hunting waves to ride.

I put up these profiles, looking for where the waves can kick up.  Boy did a wave kick up today!  I have wins on both the long and the short side, easily my best day ever, earning 10 S&P points.  It was fun too.  And I stuck to the plan all but once.  My one deviation, an attempt to knife catch that free fall, was my only loss on the day.  So be it.  Stick to the plan or lose money.

Anyhow, that’s why we do all this work, for days like today.  They’re calling this the blow off top already.  I’ll hold my judgment for now, but I did cut my RGR and YELP longs in case the afternoon gets a little Nightmare on Elm Street.

Let’s look at these stocks and see what’s working.

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