We discuss the sentiment cycle from time-to-time since Option Addict graced the idea upon us and I find value in envisioning where we are in the cycle.  It gives some perspective into how my comrades and competitors may be feeling at any given moment.

Unfortunately for RVLT longs, it appears we’re working through the rough side of the sentiment cycle.  If you love a business model, you sometimes have to ride through some crummy conditions while the business proves itself.

Therefore, I won’t candy coat what I think RVLT could do in the intermediate term, instead I’ve mapped out exactly how I envision it aka brutal, but eventually victorious.  Trade accordingly:

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It was another frustrating day of RVLT sucking wind only today it was accompanied by APP.  I’m a huge fan of the APP brand, so their ticker is a permanent fixture on my Always Stalking watch list.  When it fell out of the tight/multi-month consolidation I took it to be the head fake, the shakeout, before the actual move.  Well wouldn’t you know it, I was -10% on the name in a flash reminding me how important entries are on these low priced stocks.  I simply don’t have a ton of conviction here, so I cut my loss and moved on.

You know my thoughts on RVLT.

YGE was interesting today, being one of my largest positions and all.  I want better prices before parting ways with any of my shares.  They’re Chinese and solar, I mean, what’s better?

Yelp had a decent day and some clown ‘angel investor’ put on his big boy pants and bet five stacks Yelp will be out of business by 2015.  Oh, you bad.  He made his bet via FB, BTW.  Have you heard of the stock market, you coward?

Nothing else really materialized in my swing portfolio.

Meanwhile, you hear traders calling days like today a day trader’s dreams or a day trader’s environment and I’m pleased to report #BOSSRAM concurs.  On the session, Bossram Alpha took 12 trades covering three different cycles and went 12-for-12 to earn a staggering 13.75 handles.

Based on a one contract position size Bossram yielded $687.50 before commissions.  Considering the position size can increase by one contract for every $1800 earned, you can see the scalability.  All trades taken must have seen price to go through the entry and exit by a tick in order to validate the walk forward and provide conservative numbers.  I think it’s safe to say BOSSRAM does well in choppy environments.  Aka, this is the perfect fix for a momentum trader stuck with summertime sadness.

I’ve been overly excited for algorithms I’ve built in the past, so believe me, I’m still a skeptic.  But today’s performance was dead on with what I’ve seen occurring in my seven month back test.  ROBUSTO!

I look forward to taking the cycle live alongside my current /ES trading repertoire.

Be on the lookout for odd moves overnight, it seems like that kind of night…especially with the rare moon.

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Clearly we’re just beginning to see the panic set in with shareholders of RVLT.  Something about a stock being up 600 percent in a year’s time has folks a bit…oh I don’t know, spooked?

Meanwhile, a company I hold near-and-dear, OESX, a company I bought for $2.60 then sold for $2.30 in March is running circles around the old men with their stupid CREE and RVLT.  And I liked OESX MONDAY, for the love of bologna.

It’s all simply too much to bear, for a coward.  However, I don’t care about the severance pay RVLT dished out, it’s peanuts.  I don’t care about how RVLT’s stock price slashes through one support level after another.  All these jackasses need to do, and please excuse my retarted penmanship, is retrofit.  RETROFIT.RETROFIT.RETROFIT.  That’s why the purchase of Relume and Seesmart got me excited.

They now have the technology on hand to measure the savings their clients receive from retrofitting their bulbs.  This allows them to structure financing deals based on the savings they produce—eliminating the capital outlay a business may be hesitant to forego.  And they have a line of stupid LED bulbs to peddle: total vertical integration.

CREE’s bulbs are no better than anyone else’s.  It takes China like 72 hours to bootleg anything American companies do. Hence, RVLT’s bulbs are in fact stupid, but no stupider [sic] then Cree’s.

So as long as RVLT hones in on retrofits, focusing on the low hanging fruit, they have the tools in place to go Johnny Appleseed on the USA.  We’re in the management’s hands now.  Are they closers or not?  That’s all the matters.

Forget everything else.

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My book recaptured over 1.5 percent of the most recent losses today if you don’t count RVLT.  Unfortunately for the Raul, RVLT very much indeed counts, and today’s respite was much less.

BLAST.

A stock down big during an all-up tape is like a cold dagger to the back.  The blade is chilled even further, perhaps dipped in liquid nitrogen, when a stock gets crushed on no news…simply more sellers than buyers.  But since said blade has been dipped in liquid cold nitrogen with the intent of delivering a shrilling cold death blow it is brittle.  Pathetically brittle in fact, to the point where my Greek bones, formed atop Mount Olympus, shatter the dagger into a million tiny fragments at the point of contact.

Such is the eventual fate of those who bet against me in RVLT.  Of that you can rest assured. I added to my position today.

Other interesting thoughts toddling through my mind: I started getting the itch to size my O long back up yesterday.  I didn’t actively listen, and the thought continued in my mind all day, like a catchy merry-go-round jingle.  I like O down here, but I know so little about REITS and RATES and ROUTS which made me a bit abash to sounds the horns.  Consider this: O is unch on YTD and pays a 5.5% coupon.  If you didn’t get a piece of the capital appreciation, you’re still making bank.  Relax, and wade into this space before it is again en vogue.

YGE was my largest position coming into the day.  I’ve been in this name for quite a while, wondering if I’d one day wakeup to a Chinese air raid, a Red Dawn of sorts.  It hasn’t happened yet.  The Chinese have been very kind to me because I’m a diplomatic gent.  Respect is important in all cultures.  That being said I consider this week’s action is YGE to be of the do-or-die ­variety because we’ve reached a critical juncture on the chart that can explode in either direction.  Odds favor the long side still, so I’m expecting the gods to shine on these solar panels.

The tape as dictated by the /ES got a bit ahead of itself today.  This became evident when the market didn’t rotate off the value hump at 1652.25.  Given the weight of tomorrow’s Fed talk and the confluence of value around these levels, to disregard them and print higher seemed either surprisingly bullish or getting a bit ahead of ourselves.  The market, our favorite arbiter, answered that question by swiftly correcting the tape into the bell.  It was nothing more than a ruler slap to the bull’s knuckles IMHO.

Being about 85% long, I clearly am free of bias.

But seriously, I work hard to remain objective in my profile analysis.

Until tomorrow,

Raul

 

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Take your fancy words like masochist and stow them under your chair.  I don’t want to hear them.

YOU SHOULD SEE MY PERFORMANCE CHART OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS:

///////// \\\\\\\\\\ ////////// \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

That’s literally how it looks if only to see the chop a bit more pronounced.  MY WHEELS are spinning, you see?

LED stocks as a whole are retracing their 2013 gains after the tepid Q1 forecast from CREE.  To call the move in CREE a retracement however, may be an understatement.  This is panic and margin calls rolled into a giant blunt and smoked, like a clown, by yours truly.

Of course I bought some more CREE today, adding to my [still] green core.  I bought some into the closing bell for $58.85 #timestamp.  Even if only for a trade, I can’t stand by idle and watch my ‘ace boon coon’ CREE get bludgeoned by panicking idiots.  Oh and believe me, I have more bullets to fire at these bitches while they’re concentrated in this back ally trough.

I’m telling you now, send CREE lower, I want it lower.

Send RVLT down too, I’m patient.

I have zero edge trading earnings let’s make that clear as crystal, which it already should be.  I’m building investments here…they’ll make fine x-mas presents.

MOVING ON, AGAIN

I cut some small names off my books because the /ES was trading in a downdraft.  I cut PBF, KWK, and ONVO.  I made a killing in ONVO, BTW.  The other two, not so much…

Speaking of the /ES: There’s simply no way for me to broadcast my strategy out to the world.  Back testing and optimizing has created a medium frequency beast that even I can be overwhelmed by.  I took ten trades in the /ES today, 7 were winners and I made 160 bucks trading a 1 lot.  When this system is making 160-250 bucks per contract 4-5 days/week, which it will, it can be scaled to as many contracts are needed to sustain my lifestyle.  Cool, yes?  Then I can abandon this corporate hole and go work for Cree or something.

I’m down a percent and a half today.  My cash is nearly 40 percent partially because of a series of decockings and partially due to the aforementioned sales.  Why the silver trade is back on, I have no idea.  When I return to winship lane I will be wearing an undersized tunic so you can admire my cajonies.

I want you to take that thought and hold it close this evening.

http://youtu.be/G8rGNk6vkM4

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Cree shares are in the toilet after reporting soft guidance after the bell.  I can only see this as a buying opportunity.  If it presses my RVLT shares lower, I’ll be looking to buy more of their shares too.  Listen to me very carefully: LEDs are coming in a big way.  There are hundreds of millions of light bulbs that will be updated to LED technology.

Cree was priced for perfection going into earnings, it worried me.  I could have lightened my shares, but then I risked having to buy them higher on a positive reaction.  I’ve been biding my time with CREE, letting it effervesce for months, hoping for an opportunity to add exposure into some blood.

It appears I have my opportunity.

Shares are down nearly 15 percent on the news.  My cost basis is much lower so the market will have to do worse to shake me. I’m a buyer down here, but I intend to do so with laser like precision.

The CREE chart has needed to reset since February.  This isn’t a trade.  It’s a multiyear thesis that will crush.  The numbers out of CREE look great to my eye.

MOVING ON…

There’s nothing you can do, sans having illegal insider information, to avoid the type of loss I was forced to take in OCZ today.  Sometimes you get unexpected news, especially when you’re digging through dumpsters looking for winners.  You have to cut the names as gracefully as possible and take precautionary measures to protect your emotional capital or avoid tilt as some say.  I should have probably sold on the first bounce, instead of nursing the position late into the afternoon.

I am experiencing winship in the AIXG today, I’ve waited quite some time for this name to get active, and it will be interesting to see if CREE is a negative contagion tomorrow.

My peanut gallery of stocks were mostly down today with the exception of ONVO and IMMR.

Tonight I’ll be formulating plans to accumulate the blood in LED and I will burn thickets of sage to cleanse these demonic losses out of my home.

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As quiet as today seemed, I was able to advance my portfolio by over 1 percent today.  Leading the way were my LED players, RVLT, CREE, and AIXG.  This basket of securities currently represents 23 percent of my portfolio and I intend to make it much larger, perhaps even as large as 50 percent of my book.

That’s how much conviction I have in lighting grade LEDs.

I intend to make a very concentrated bet and advance my family to the next level of society, top hats.  If anyone can present one iota of evidence contrary to the eventual 100% adoption rate of LEDs in the United States, please do so now.  And don’t feed me that plasma light bullshit, I’ve tested these things and I’m wholeheartedly unimpressed by both the performance and the economics.

I’m slowing my swing portfolio down a bit, instead focusing on building into names I believe add value to society, which is why I started buying cigarette marker LO into the bell.  I’m essentially parking money in the Newport Cigarette maker, planning to earn the very handsome coupon while they add value to the smoking community.  How?  The Blu eCigarette.  When LO took over Blu and rolled it out to every convenience station from here to California, they earned the early mover seat in this space.  I like to imagine they have teams of behavioral physiologists and scientists working around the clock to sell more of these disposable vaporizers.  My game plan on LO is to buy weakness, time and time again, and allow the eventual growth from eCigs to buoy the share price enough for the coupon to make me profit.  Fun stuff, I know.  I’m sleeping on some Ford(s) shares the same way.

I have a heterogeneous mixture of other stocks kicking around in the old portfolio, mostly names where I’ve taken the lion share of profits and left a runner on for sport.  Stocks like O, BPZ, ONVO, and IMMR.  I really only see reason to sell BPZ but the others I keep, like collecting baseball cards.

I still have a decent hunk of FB, about 35% of what I consider full size.

I bought more OCZ today.  This is my aggressive pumper.  I’m having a hard time accepting a double top at two bucks.  I’ve questioned this proposition by increasing my size in the name in search of a short term pump.  I’m playing PBF in a similar manner although it has different chart logic.

My other aggressive trade is YGE, which is still huge.

That makes 14 longs, 0 shorts, and 25% cash.  Just writing that out makes me want to sell something and concentrate my eggs…

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RVLT today announced they acquired Relume Lighting Technologies, a fine company in my neck of the woods.  I’m loving how they structured this deal, paying only $5 million and offering the remaining ten large in common stock.  They’re aligning goals by getting everyone vested in the share price.  And by acquiring Seesmart and Relume they’ve become a formidable competitor in the lighting grade LED space.

Shares are up modestly on the news, but I wish they were down.  I want a huge position in this name.  I have a current cost basis of $4.35 and about 8 percent of my portfolio invested.  I want to be 20 percent invested…a concentration of sorts only a madman would consider.  And I want to hold it for years, or until I feel the management is not executing.

Right now I love these guys.

Consider this my hype piece on RVLT.  I’m not going to pump this name, but I will be swinging it intermediate to long term.

The challenge here will be sitting on all the profits, watch.

No charts needed here.  I have GTC orders at $3.20 and $2.15.  Hook it up.

 

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Much like the pile of Mexican food I consumed late last night, the USU shares I chased yesterday are providing small explosions in my person.  Position sizing is key and although discussed often, perhaps not often enough.  I only took a 1/3 size long in this name with no intention of making it larger.  That way, WHEN it comes back on my like this, I can at least maintain my composure and die with dignity.  This trade is likely a loser.  Moving on…

RVLT is a much larger position of mine and is down AS MUCH AND OFTEN TIMES MORE than USU.  But still, I don’t flinch.  I henceforth and hereafter am one with RVLT.  We’re a team, RVLT and me, consider me an RVLT employee, got it?  As long as they continue to focus their energies on Seesmart, I have zero complaints with the name.  I think it was a good deal between RVLT and Seesmart and we’re going to see real value from this company going forward.  I will go as far as putting 20 percent of my book into this name, if need be, allocating slowly during any meltdowns.  After buying more today, the position represents about 8 percent of my book.

I have CREE too, the leader.

I may have additional thoughts to offer you later on, but the market is very dynamic today and I’d like to return my attention to it.  Adieu good fellows of the interwebs.

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It has been one hit after another this week in the solar space, with a big EPS (LPS) whiff by SCTY, the Star Trek of solar stocks.  I don’t really have much to say about this, I’ve always known solar was bipolar with bouts of manic optimism followed by the cold knife of reality.   GREEN ENERGY AFICIONADOS, prepare to receive the thrusting sword of reality to your torso.  Solar has failed you, as will your wind turbines.

We need something better, something nuclear.

Moving on, I see nobody read my call to action at lunchtime, obviously catching turning points in the stock market is of no excitement to people of the internet.  My crowning achievement on the day was riding /ES shorts through the early move lower, booking my gains, then slapping on a full size GS long a few pennies off the low of the day.  Grace under fire it was, executing that move while YGE gets lit the fuck up.

The afternoon was mostly quiet, scalping a long, and then a short amidst the /es chop.  I still hold 30% cash in my swing portfolio, but the net is now long, no hedges to anchor me down should the market set sail Thursday.

For the day, I was down 1 percent in my swing portfolio and up 200 bones or clams or bucks on my futures.

Business owners, do me a favor and go buy some solar panels would ya?

Make sure they’re “Made in China”

Thanks,

Raul

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