Pull up daily and 30 minute charts of EGLE, GMCR, ACTV, and END and you will see beautiful charts, tightly coiled and ready to make explosive moves.  I want you to note I bought none of them.

I did however buy CREE and MHR taking my long exposure up to 75 percent.  I have another 10 percent in SKF, leaving me 15 percent cash to navigate tomorrows FED day.  That’s essentially why I did not buy anything else today.  I like the stocks I mentioned in paragraph one.  Any one of those could produce a big gainer.

Interestingly enough, after today’s CREE buy and pooling in RBCN, 40 percent of my book is committed to LED technology.  RBCN has some action off the new iPhone home button too, but their sapphire is an important material in LED production.  This is my very concentrated bet.  Parts of it aren’t doing too well.  Take RVLT for instance—the chart looks hellish, yep…technical term.  And I’m -30% on the name.  Don’t care.  I mean, I care very much, but the stock is a long term speculative hold.  AIXG cannot and will not break out of its consolidation range.  My cost basis is the only thing keeping me in this play because if it wasn’t near the bottom of this range I would have a harder time stomaching these waves.

I took one trade in the /6E today.  After /6e pushed lower, it pulled back to a place I could enter.  The trade went in my favor, all the way to my target, but did not fill.  This happens often, and it used to cause a great deal of anguish and regret.  I would be like, “I put my target out too far, now I will be getting the fuck.”  Now I don’t sweat the action, but instead manage that which I can control at this point.  The /6E very well could have put in another thrust lower, and it still may, but it didn’t.  Instead it put my position below water and then just held it there.  Around noon I took a step back, had a stretch, and asked the following questions:

What has the /6E done?

What is the /6E trying to do?

How good of a job is the /6E doing on the try?

It’s helpful.  I pulled my chart out a bit, noticed the /6e has gone very quiet, something I noted this morning.  The market open introduced a strong thrust lower, but not to fresh swing lows.  We’re making lower highs, but also higher lows: it’s coiling!  That’s what it has done.

To my eye, the Euro is trying to do two things: the bulls are trying to work out of a range bound trade that lasted an entire year.  They are not doing a great job so far.  The bears are trying to reject range highs.  They’re doing a decent job, but have been smacked about quite a bit these last 8-10 trading days.  As a result, the /6E is marking time until an unknown factor causes order flow out of this consolidation.

It’s doing a pretty damn good job consolidating as the EMAs I track had gone completely flat on top of the VPOC.

So then, what’s it likely to do?  It was likely to chop the consolidation range, the short trade was dead.  Instead of just clicking the buy to cover and taking a 0.00012 loss, I was lucky to catch a bit of movement in my favor and only lose 0.0006.  I didn’t want to be in a coin toss situation any more.  I covered.  My entry was good so I really have no complaints with the trade.  It just as easily could have continued rotating lower.

And now you have read though my entire lunchtime /6E perspective and my subsequent introspective.  Have a great one!

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I couldn’t pull the trigger on anything today, not to sell existing shares, not to buy new shares, and I have SKF already which feel like a bit much in this tape.

I stalked CREE today, it is setting up perhaps.  I wanted to buy shares much lower, so if this setup does trigger I may just trade a piece and go back into my core size (3/4).

Current longs, by size: RBCN, SKF, RVLT, AIXG, CREE, FB, LO, EXK, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O.

Cash around 25 percent.

The O was very strong at the open.  That is a nasty little fade right there.

I lost some money in the futures today when I was shaken out of my short by the clown show in my brain.  I called the head and shoulders this AM to the tick.  But instead of capitalizing on it, I sat in traffic listening to Traffic.  The clown ring leader is Gary Busey.

I’m holding out for my favorite setups before I put any more cash to work.

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I was not actively trading the /ES today, but my algo was able to take two trades.  One earned 1.75 handles and the other was breakeven.

My portfolio had a very strong day today, up nearly three percent and putting me back near my high watermark of the year.  I’ve been trading my butt off to finance these investments in RVLT and CREE.  As a result, when RVLT and CREE go up, I have big days.

Let’s discuss RVLT a bit.  If we consider the sentiment chart idea, we find ourselves within the panic bounce.  To me this means any rally we see over the next few days/weeks is likely to fail.  How do you like that?  I’m telling you right now that my largest position is involved in a failed rally.  And that’s okay because my timeframe on this position is multi-year.  Let’s hope I’m correct so we can have better opportunities to buy even more shares.  Another anecdotal piece of evidence calling this rally into question is one of its origins: a {cringe} Seeking Alpha report.  The bozos at SA (as the hipsters call them) were greased to help somebody get out of a seriously underwater position.  This is just a theory, but their track record is eroding though the diligent work of iBankCoin Chief Market Strategist “The Fly”.  It puts a foul stink on the whole move.  If it wasn’t a pleasant twenty percent pressure release valve I would be even more ornery.

However, CREE reported they have retrofitted the NASA headquarters and done so quite successfully.  Hmm, Cree really knows how to land the big fish, yes?  Wrong!  The biggest fish tend to be the wisest fish—having survived years of fishing and boat propellers.  If/when these gigantic fish encounter a situation where their lighting is called into question, the data will unequivocally point them in the direction of LEDs.  Any entity that weighs the financial impact of any business decision will see the cost benefit of retrofitting their existing light structure with LEDs.  And CREE, RVLT, OESX, AIXG, RBCN, and GTAT will benefit.  Look at GTAT…shorts better pray to their demon lords that sadistic seven holds as resistance.  Otherwise the light, the good, shall prevail.

Other big winners today were TRLA, CLF, and END.  Readers, I’ve been clear with my calls.  It’s up to you to wrap risk around them.  I scaled a small piece of TRLA off because I take profit when the markets giveth.

My SKF has gone red by about three percent.  Tomorrow it comes to an interesting fork in the road where I’ll either buy more, do nothing, or scratch the trade.  I was hesitant to add to the position today when the SPY absolutely refused to roll over.  Checking back in just now, it appears it did manage to roll, BARELY.  Until I see more confirmation, I’m not loving this trade.

END needs to rip, I mean, come’on now, we’ve been flirting with the idea of going all the way for weeks. Why not get past this game of just the tip as @chessNwine often references?  I think we do, hence why I haven’t scaled any off yet.

CLF is tricky.  It has been dead money for so long and now it shows signs of life.  Do we trust it?  Or do we take our six percent and dump this cheap trick?  TBD

In closing, I kicked my cash up to 25 percent and could like to see some market weakness to buy my favorite stocks sitting on my wish list—names like Z, SFM, GOGO, AMBA, ADHD, and VPCO.

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You will see more of these projects over the next twelve months as smart businesses evaluate their energy consumption and the investments that can reduce their expenses:

DURHAM, N.C.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) headquarters, a  leased facility in Washington, D.C., has been outfitted with  energy-saving CR Series LED Troffers by Cree, Inc. (CREE). The  high-performance LED installation is part of a renovation to maximize  energy savings of the 600,000 square-foot building. More than 1,300 Cree  CR22™ architectural LED troffers have been installed, and Piedmont  Office Realty Trust, owners of the NASA headquarters building, expects  the new fixtures to deliver energy savings of 52 percent over the  previously installed T8 fluorescent fixtures. An additional 5,200 Cree^®CR22 troffers are planned to complete the lighting upgrade.

“We originally considered replacing the existing T8 fluorescent tubes  with T5 fluorescents, but after testing Cree’s…(continue reading)

Shares of CREE are up over three percent on the news while smaller player RVLT is up over twenty percent.  FD: I am long both names.

Retrofits is the name of the game.  Can RVLT harvest all the low hanging fruit accross the United States?  Indeud, they can and will.

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Into the weekend I would like to very briefly run down my portfolio holdings and the reasoning behind each.  This information is coming off the rip after a long week.  Thus any thing with a flimsy justification may need to go.

Here we go, from largest to smallest holding:

Cash – I have 20 percent of my book sitting cash.  I’m eager to deploy it on the long side

SKF – I’m using a three year volume profile chart to view BRK/B, WFC, GS, C, etc. and I see a great volume pocket below prices.  Plus they’ve broken down off their respective highs and are printing tight bear flags.  The overall market is on unstable footing and I want some levered short exposure.

RVLT – Yes, it’s my largest long holding and currently the bane of my stock existence.  It earned largest ranking when I blew out my YGE and YELP shares this week.  They were my prior biggies.  The stock is trading worse than a bag of dicks at a hot dog eating contest.  There are no buyers and presumably a few large sellers cashing in on the 600% plus move that took place up unto the day I bought the stock.  The business model is stronger than ever, the shift in focus from consumer products to large scale retrofits is brilliant, and the investor population is still very shortsighted on the opportunity in lighting.  I still love this name, and I plan to cost average in through several quarters.

AIXG – My German LED company.  I love LED technology and I see this company as a beneficiary in Europe due to their energy awareness.  The stock has been dead money for months and I continue to hold.  Nothing has changed here, but this consolidation has excellent potential energy.

END – Huge short interest, oil exploration, and a hot chart.

CREE – Same as RVLT and AIXG, I want these names until incandescent and HID bulbs die.  I’ve been in since January, why exit now?

TRLA – I love their app and use it constantly, the chart looks great, Zillow has been a beast, value added to realty pros, and Le Fly is in the name.

CLF – Tight consolidation, looks like it wants to rip and if it doesn’t the risk is really low.  OA went YOLO on it this week too, although it never moved so that may have been a small loss.

FB – Marky Mark and the poke crew are getting it done.  Holding

LO – Blu eCigs and menthol cigarrets won’t actually get banned.  Interest rates need to stop rising, it’s making the coupon less attractive.

F – Still a strong chart and a nice product line.  This is a patriot long still kicking around my port since the 4^th of July

IMMR – haptics are way underutilized by porn.  I think the porn industry will drive growth here 😉 Also, a Le Fly favorite.

USO – I should still be large but I took a bunch of scales on the way up.  I almost sold it all.  Look, that would have been really dumb.

O – it too pays a large coupon which is losing allure with bond rates rising.  I traded my favorite reversal pattern really well in here with a large position.  The locked in gains dipped my cost basis way down here.  So I’m basically break even on the idea, waiting to collect some coupon.

That’s my holdings.  I’m interested in a few other names, like SFM and GOGO, but will wait until next week to act (obviously).

Have a great weekend everyone,

Raul

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I had a flat tire when I woke.

The markets took a pause for the most part today and although a calm, balanced day should be high on your expectations following a trend day today was borderline absurd.  The first hour of trade is referred to as the initial balance.  The probability of taking out neither the high nor the low during a day session is less than five percent over the last five years of data.

Today we witnessed a tape so benign it was special.  I took a long at 10:30 AM, missed my profitable exit around 3pm, and scratched the trade break even at 3:10pm.  You wouldn’t believe the frustration that trade produced.  I mean, I look at a stock trade like RVLT, slowly bleeding the lifeblood from my person, like a particularly pestering mosquito.  Eventually winter comes and it freezes and dies.  But each /ES position carries a marginal value over $30,000…which is why I like my gratification instant.  My algo, Elroi was dormant today.  I expected as much since Elroi thrives in high velocity conditions.  Bossram put me on the right side of the opening bell and I extracted 1.5 handles.

I beat my head against the urinal wall then ate several hummus treats.

I had quite the laugh when I saw my boss for the first time today and, I kid you not, he was wearing a full Canadian tuxedo.  It was so majestic.  The only wardrobe piece missing was a mystical wolf tee shirt.  He also wasn’t rocking the official Canadian belt buckle.  Needless to say, it was a clear omen from the stock gods and I sold the majority of my BBRY long.  I’ve kept a 1/3 runner in case Wayne Gretzky makes a surprise move onto the board of directors.

The wires are reporting AMBA in fact beat expectations, as was written in these halls for months by our fearless leader, Senor Tropicana.  As you know, I exited the position yesterday, but I’m still bullish on the name.  The GoPro is as cool as RedBull these days.

I slapped on a pretty sizable SKF position into the bell.  It seems in slight haste in hindsight, but I had just untethered myself from the /ES and found the action excessively befuddling.  Therefore I thought it prudent first to sell one of my longs.  But I looked at all of them, the little rug rats, and I couldn’t part ways with any.  So I tossed on the SKF hedge.

I sold a little bit of YGE but I’m keeping a small piece just in case it keeps going.

I took nearly a full size position in CLF early on, it looks hot.

Time to go home.

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I really like the feel I had trading the /ES_F today.  I’ve currently pigeonholed my discretionary trading to conform to the BOSSRAM ALPHA cycle.  This prevents me rushing.  It allows me to measure where we are in the cycle after some broad redundantly calls my phone so she can hear herself talk and position (or hand sit) accordingly.

You see, plates, I juggle so many.

One of my favorite trades in the market requires full attention because it can fly in your face quickly.  I didn’t want to stop trading the chart picture simply because my day job doesn’t afford me focus so I automated it.  This was the birth of ELROI.

Elroi doesn’t trade the picture as profitably as me.  But what he lacks in profitability Elroi makes up in consistency.  Elroi bagged 3.75 handles in profit today on trades that were too racy for me.  I on the other hand, wielding Bossram, made $25 or 0.50 handles.

But it was fun to watch Elroi go to work while I waited for the market to come into the Bossram wheelhouse.  This week I reset my account to $10k: five for me, five for Elroi, and I pulled the rest out to buy cat food.

You see, trading the /ES since April has been by and large a circle jerk and a dangerous one at that.  It came down to losing focus.  I’ve…courourrrected the problem and put several policies and procedures in place to ensure the new habits stick.  My future’s trading operation is looking more like a Fortune 500 company every week.  Goodness, companies like AMZN, GOOG, and SBUX aren’t on these lists by luck.

Learn from their cultures.

Now it’s exciting and I’m happy to fire up my futures every morning.  It’s me verses Elroi.  So far he’s winning.

ON TO STOCKS:

I sold AMBA entirely today.  I told you very clearly I was taking this cheap trick for 10 percent and then taking my business elsewhere.  AMBA fucked me once, I fucked AMBA once.  Perhaps after earnings we can make love, or something.  I earned about 8 percent on the trade.  It was a 12 percent position.

I took profits in Ford(s) because I was watching the /ES_F weaken.  It’s nothing personal.  I still have a 5% position.

My top performers were END and YGE.

RVLT continues to ‘suck goat’ instead of retrofitting Manhattan with LEDs.  Get to work you zoophiles.

I bumped my cash up above 25 percent and was up 1.75 percent on the day.  I needed it.  One thing is certain.  When RVLT stops going down…I’m forecasting champagne showers.

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I bought more RVLT shares. Not many, but more.

Note: My net position is -30% and this is a long term position. And if you buy RVLT becasue of this post, you may lose money.

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I cannot say with any certainty if it made sense to eat twenty four dollars’ worth of grilled cheeses, but I can tell you that meal was the only thing that excited me today.  Normally, in this country, I should be excited that a three day weekend approaches.  As a matter of fact, during our last three day weekend, I ran an exciting back test on the /ES that has been profitable.

I expect this weekend’s research to further my quest to dominate the S&P 500.

But I don’t look to the weekend with glee.  Instead I have been plagued by nightmares of global conflict.  As much as I enjoy speculating during the turmoil, my vibe took a negative turn today.  It rolled over, if you will.

Generation X and Y have mostly escaped war.  There have been conflicts. Good people have been sent in to foreign countries to bring the fight to the villains, but no full fledged war has occurred.  And I’m happy to live in boring times.  Perhaps I’m getting older and becoming more aware of global brutality, and perhaps I should just tell my subconscious to eat a donut and STFU.  But I really don’t like this situation…this situation in Syria.

I had a dream a few weeks back that an unknown villain nuked the entire taiga, destroying the atmosphere and ending the world.  That’s the kind of vibe I’m feeling.

I’m also getting bled out every day by RVLT, WTF is going on over there?  This crap still doesn’t look buyable.  It’s almost surreal how poorly this stock is behaving.

The LVN I noted this morning at 1641.75 never came into play today.  Instead it’s been a risk averse tape, but mostly the action has a smack of indecision and chop.

I raised a bit more cash, taking anther scale in AMBA for a win and closing ENPH for a loss.  ENPH is entirely without trend here, IMO.  I was playing for quick strength to trigger a short squeeze.  It never materialized and I was too slow with my exit.  Then I bottom ticked the sale today without even queuing up the chart.  This too was quite perturbing.

My futures workstation completely broke today, froze, and needed a hard restart.  Brutal.  You know…the restart where you hold the power button for like 10 seconds until POOF, and then an eerie silence falls over the room.  Then you count to ten as slowly as possible, giving the machine the official ‘ten seconds to settle’ before turning it back on.  It worked, and my tools are 90 percent operational going into the close.  My volume-at-price delta is still broken.  Either that or every order today has been executed at the bid (I hope not).

My book is a sea of red except for YGE and FB and all I really want is peace.  I don’t foresee much more action on my behalf into the weekend.

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Taking yourself out of the proverbial shark tank that is the stock market for a few days leads to some interesting observations.  Once outside the tank, you’re better able to observe the water you’ve been swimming around in.  It’s a higher sense of self understanding, if you will.

After buying AMBA Tuesday morning, I’ve been inactive.  This is in part because the purchase took my cash down under six percent.  What little cash I have left must be used to average into CREE and RVLT should the opportunities arise.

Speaking of RVLT, I’m now minus thirty percent on my basis.  Investing, it seems, is a tricky endeavor.  On one hand, I know they have to potential to make hundreds of millions of dollars retrofitting businesses with LEDS.  I also love the vertical model they’ve built with their recent acquisitions.  On the other hand, I’m in an ugly chart in a company that was up over 600 percent in one year’s time.  Yeah…

But I’m keeping my investor hat on and entrenching into the LED industry.  CREE, AIXG, and RVLT are multi quarter holdings.

Just before heading out last week, I increased my oil exposure.  Nice timing, yes?  I still have positions in END, MHR, and USO.  Until the Libyans find out they didn’t in fact kill Doc Brown because Mike Fox used the time machine to warn him to wear a vest, I’m sticking with these positions.  I may trim a bit of exposure into further strength.

I passed through no less than four po-dung towns on my travels, and in every case I depended on YELP to find my palatable food with a reasonable atmosphere.  I did the same in Traverse City, a much finer and top hatted community.  Why not use Google?  Because the YELP interface is BETTER, you jack asses.

ENPH and YGE are both lit sticks of dynamite.  I intend to stick said dynamite in the tail pipes of the shortmobile.

LO will succeed in addicting teenagers to Blu Eciggarets and I will collect a lovely coupon, much higher than any government or corporate paper, at little or no risk to my person.  Same goes for O, except for the teenager part.

IMMR, F, and FB round out my book of long positions.

I’ll be back this evening with an update on Bossram Alpha and El Roi, my drone strike robots.

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