I have zero intention of fighting the 45 degree ascent in the markets as long as Netflix is putting up big numbers. This stock is insane–up about 12% over the last two days. It is literally trading with impunity since the latest dip.
My model got one thing right. It calls for a sharp bounce at some point during the week. The only problem is the last two instances have seen the sharp bounce start Monday morning. That is not exactly helpful.
Nevertheless, I have been on the right side of the tape all morning. My systems are back to 100% operational.
The mothership is a force in the marketplace. A fast and nimble boat that rapidly adjusts to the changing conditions. Netflix is like an ambulance clearing a pathway down a traffic infested street. Follow the leader.
On losing days, my old routine used to be calling up some buddies and having a few beers, chalking it up as another hard lesson from the market. I can always have this mentality because the money, I don’t depend on it. I’ve always been told consistent profitability in the markets requires a low stress money situation. I agree. I absolutely can’t imagine being in a financial pinch and trading. As for the jumpers, they’re simply cowards who can’t swing the poor life, thrift shopping and such.
Today really wasn’t as bad as I’m making it out to be, but frustrations were quickly compounded and before I knew it I was going ‘Full Gibson’ beating people over the head with rocks and such. I played back the tape of my futures trading just now and the mistakes didn’t start until I made it about me.
I made it about me. Not the markets, because some crazy shit went down that rattled me. Let me explain:
I took planned trades, trades with statistical advantages. The first two win. Good start.
The second trade takes off as soon as I get it in, looking great, gets to my exit, prints my target a few times, I don’t get filled and it slams down and takes me out break even.
At this point things are looking REALLY choppy and moving REALLY fast. For the next 30 minutes all hell breaks loose, Raul taking funky ass unplanned trades. Good God, it looks like I fired a machine gun at the screen.
Funny thing is, my last trade, a long…something was still firing in the old noggin…my exit looks like the most beautiful short entry you’ve ever seen. The floor fell out seconds later for five handles, then many many more.
This all happens very fast you see. I lost sight of the market. I started having a very real and very strong feeling that the algorithms knew exactly where my stops and targets were, and they were fucking me. That’s paranoia…fear based nonetheless. Me, me, me, that’s what my internal dialogue sounded like.
Recognizing this, I cut almost all my risk out and pressed my cash to 65 percent.
Some names I just couldn’t let go of. Here they are, presented by size (biggest-to-smallest):
AAPL, CREE, IMMR, RGLD, HMIN, DANG, and FB
I also hold some cheap lotto tickets in HPQ weekly calls and NFLX.
My fate as a trader lies entirely on backing off when conditions don’t favor my style of trading. It’s something everyone has wrestled with I’m sure. It’s never hit me this hard in my life, even though I’ve taken much larger financial blows. I was furious.
It’s a learning experience as always, but this one left a lasting impression.
Something is happening to me, something I’ve planned and worked toward all year long. The budding ideas are beginning to bloom. I’m becoming a multi-pronged trader. The tape, it only needs to move, and I’ll be there, making money from it.
I do things, quite majestically. Take for example my NFLX weekly option trade. I bought two units early, scaled one off for profit during that precarious double top intraday, and held one through a bit of a drawdown. This option now stands to make a great deal of money in the morning. The profit taking gives the confidence to stomach the pullback, at least for me.
My Google runner, I sold it. It was worth more, and it may rip tomorrow without me, but I avoided turning it into a loss.
This LULU long may still be a loser. I’ll keep quiet about that seeing as I nearly top ticked it with 3 calls. You’re never supposed to lose on the internet.
I made money in the S&P futures today. I can’t post these trades live as they require 100 percent focus and risk management.
My swing portfolio lost money today mostly, but it boasts a large cash position and some green shoots. Not just pure red. NBG is my current biggest loser. New longs include JKS and FSYS. Cash resides at 33 percent.
New long JKS was practically a mechanical entry. PPT upgraded it to buy, the hybrid score shot up, and it has a look I know and love.
The green Tuesday streak is over, but I still stand to make a great sum of money tomorrow. The fade exhibited on my longs only serves as proof that the sellers are in fact afraid and behaving overly aggressive.
Notice: As fast as these buds bloom they can be chopped to bits by a careless lawnmower operator. It would not be the first time I’ve had fresh ideas minced by the motored blades of the market. No one ever said it was a safe journey!
Fri May 31, 2013 12:01pm ESTComments Off on The Money Is Out There
Are you man enough to take it?
There’s a cloud of electricity around Sir Raul this morning as I trade with near impunity. It may just be these storms rolling through the D, turning the entire landscape to a shade of green that can only best be described as ELECTRIC.
Big, big day thus far. Let’s run down the moves:
10 trades in the ES, 10 winners. Flawless victory.
Sold 1/3 NBG at the open + 20 percent. My ancestors are treating me right. I’m a decedent of ZEUS.
Sold my NFLX lotto ticket at AM swing high, made a G.
Bought more SNDK lotto tickets, let it ride.
I closed out my RVLT. I never love this name and wanted my 5 percent gain. It could still go.
I bought ACHN from fly’s homeless post last night.
I bought SNE.
Let me elaborate on SNE. It has a bearish-slanted head and shoulders pattern. Very bearish. The NIEKKEI had a tough week. I think they’re going to drop the hammer on shorts. How dare they question their economic experiment! Japan doesn’t play pimp. This is my rebound play to get involved with the action.
I like my China names going into a weekend of Chinese PMI data. They’ll look to get global attention this week, I feel. I’m long DANG and HMIN.
Yes, there was a selloff this afternoon. Indeed, the NIKKEI is doing scary things. Sure, there’s lots of uncertainty in the bond markets. And certainly, we’re knee deep in month end foolishness. But why not have fun with it?
I know everyone’s different in their approach and I respect that. The buy and hold investor who got involved any time in the last 5 years is probably crushing, if he picked good companies. The swinger who is patiently waiting for cleaner conditions is probably preserving a nice chunk of earned capital, waiting for her next opportunity.
I’m trying a little bit of everyone’s soup.
So far, my first two attempts at this option game have appeared well timed, SNDK and NFLX. I’ve taken scales in both. Aside from the paper gains I’m sitting on, which are very real money, I have a free ride on my lottery tickets, silly contracts set to expire tommorow. There’s something to be said about this approach. If either one of these continue higher tomorrow, we’re talking about 30-40 percent gains. I never considered such speculation until “The Fly” brought OptionAddict into the mix.
I traded the spooz so poorly this morning, I can’t wait to review the trades while slamming my thumb in a door jam. I need my pointer finger for clicking.
I HAVE MY CHINA FIX: Long shares of HMIN and DANG
Let me talk about DANG a bit. My good friend @stockcats suggested the name via fortune cookie. One thing stood out to me, the near geometric perfection of the triangle up here. The Chinese, they love structure, symmetry. Their leaders will point to this chart whilst we sleep and demand it resolve higher, as a show of power and formation.
I nibbled on the little bank that could, NBG. I can’t pass up a good joke, even if it’s on me.
See my Dee’s? DDD looks fantastic up here. So do AAPL SNDK CREE and NFLX. FB doesn’t look too shabby down there, either.
I’m feeling lucky, so I’m pressing my bets all over the place. I can assure you some of them are wrong. Until we decidedly trade lower, I’ll keep dwelling in the speculative components of the market. But hell I’m young, I can afford to lose it ALL. Fuck it.
Should I fall square on my face tomorrow, this post will serve as a jagged reminder of my insolence to the cautionary winds.
I tried catching the falling knife that was NFLX this morning. I went long at 222.50 and stopped out around 218.75. I’m not sure what has the stock so weak this morning, but I was playing for a snapback.
I had an early picture to go long $ES_F right around the opening bell but never got my fill. The next look came to the short side just after 11am and I took two contracts for 1.5 handles each.
The spooz are still threatening more downside action, I noted the single prints from 1663.50 – 1659.75 in my morning look. If we trade through 63.50, I would be prepared for a swift move to retest the 1660 level. However, the big move last week is looking corrective in nature with the trend upward still very much intact.