As horrendous as the news flow has been this week, I have these charts setting up something mint.  If I continue playing ostrich to the news, which is the plan, I have setups galore.  The market looks like a well-managed brothel and I am simply partaking in the services hoping the Feds don’t crash the party.

I bought WLT but the big story is the resurgence of LED stocks.  Everyone wrote them off after CREE reported soft numbers last quarter.  Yet here we go again, with these stocks ripping.  RVLT is leading the charge as my book propels over two percent higher on the day.

I switched over to trading the /NQ as I mentioned yesterday and I like the pace of trade much better.  I find I am babysitting positions less often.  Instead I am trading in a stick-and-move fashion that better suits my fringe lifestyle.

FaceBook will not relent and I would quite enjoy seeing it go Nicola Tesla on these shorts.  Being in a well-padded long, I see no reason to sell any.

Everything I sold continued to propel higher, so selling has been stupid.  Look at MHR and YGE.  Stupid.  Selling is for stoopid folks.

Press the boot and sip cognac instead.

Cash @ 18%

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After I sold MHR and VIPS it felt good to book the ten digit gains, and it made sense with my trading plan, but I suspected my mind had gotten in the way almost immediately.  But being overly concerned with booking gains would just jumble my mind further, so I jumped back into the waters looking for my next meal…essentially.

USO, perfect, full size

Bullet point reasoning:

• “I’m an oil man”
• USO moves slow like sludge
• All my mind wanted was crack stocks
• Was sitting on multi-month support, chillin’
• An esteemed 12631 member and I discussed and agreed it had a good look

Two of those reasons pertain to how juiced up I was coming off of yesterday.  iBC Chief Market Strategist “The Fly”, the brains of this whole outfit, eased up and I felt overconfident.  Then I missed an entry I really wanted on ONVO.  Then I made an earnest attempt to punch a hole in a solid wood security door after storming away from my desk.

Yeah…it was like, cool out hot head.

So I stopped trading.  I stopped watching the market mostly, too.  There’s over 30% cash in my books and no doubt that I can’t trade my way through a deeper pullback.

Completely aside, the burning Tesla Youtube video has the stink of fabrication.  I have no intention of proving it.  But if all news is fake then so is this spoof video.  Well done.

All news is fake.

Good night

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Through the thick Michigan overcast a blinding beacon of light hast parted the clouds and shined down upon la casa de Raul.  The gods of the stock market saw fit to order their mortal servants (Goldman Sachs) to upgrade the LED sector, levitating my portfolio to unseen highs.

While the indices diddle more than a Sunday school preacher my book of stocks like VIPS, BALT, AMBA, and MHR are ripping the doors off this market.  Counter trend shorts hiding throughout this market are feeling the cold hand of Raul on their necks just before I choke slam them into margin calls.

I did all of this choke slamming and raised my cash above 20 percent.  I have 20 percent cash on hand ready and willing to deploy into hot charts and the blooming LED industry.

Not a share of CREE or RVLT has been sold.  Instead I hold these bits and bites of numbers attached to letters close to chest, weary of any passer by admiring them.  They’re mine!  The precious…

So yeah, I’m on one.

10% in one day would tell the rational person their eggs are too concentrated.  But I never set out to be rational.  I am on a quest for vanishing edge pools and car stables.  I want to stop eating bullshit meat.  I want my meat to live a happy life…rolling in the grass and soaking up sunrays while raising a family.  Then I want the farmer to give that sweet meat the best meal of its life.  Then, like the mafia, quietly sneak up behind the beast and boom!  Dome them, very clean.  I need to make the monies so I can visit my meat and get to know its quirky lifestyle and name.  My meat will not be imprisoned.

Then I’m going to eat that meat poolside, off a model’s ass, while she lies on the hood of my Tesla Model S.

What I am trying to say is I bought more RVLT.  I had too much money after I scratched AIXG.  NEIN!  Nine times that god damn German ADR head faked higher.  Pathetic.

Before I digress any further—good evening to you.  Let’s do this again tomorrow.

http://youtu.be/8WRj3XZvSqQ

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This is your Capitan speaking, the time is 5:01pm and we have touched down on the gap and the weekend.  The skies are sunny and I hope you enjoyed your flight.  I want to thank you for flying with us and hope you enjoy your stay.

It’s scotch thirty…

I let the instruments bring us in the weekend, flying IFR and letting the machines do most the work.  Speaking of machines, my jackass helper robot Elroi took one trade this week and it lost money.  I suspect he has been too busy courting the modified Siri to trade.  I intend to cut his binary unit off should this insolence continue.

We went on and on ad nauseum about the value area developing these last 36 hours and we formed the hypothesis that a move lower was in the cards but not to read too far into it beyond forming the proper boundaries of a quality auction.  Check out the final product, I call it Da Vinci’s brush:

I catapulted my book 7% higher this week and still managed to end the week with 18% cash in the hopper.  I made all of this alpha while the market dicked around and formed Da Vinci’s brush.  I dicked around inside that auction too—trading futures for better or for worse.  This week it was for worse. 

I struggle to follow rules because rules are structure and I enjoy living a fringe lifestyle.  But I am telling you as sure as I am sitting in this Herman Miller that rules form the foundation to good decision making.  I have good rules backed by 100s of computer hours and old school back testing—gifts bestowed upon my person by the gods of large numbers.  I need to stick by them and stop dicking around.  In short, I am spinning my wheels in the mud, again, trading futures.

In the meantime the in between time I go out and earn 3x my losses trading MHR.  I told you pimps there were pumps ahead for the explorers.  END is next, watch it rip next week.  As for YGE, in one way shape or form the fine scholars here at iBankCoin have rammed this ticker into your frontal lobe.  Hot damn I spanked it out of the park this week again, nailing a perfect entry, scaling off a third, and now letting the rest ride.  Target?  You should be asking about my target because entry is only half the battle.

Ten twenty five.

Today’s moves were to cut CLF early, cash in some MHR later, and buy more LO FTW. 

Is the government shutting down or something?  I just trade these charts.

**IT’S ALL FAKE**

Be well,

Raul

http://youtu.be/Z4bVgEVnvyI

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My book was up over two percent today.  The sheep were shepherded higher by the benevolent RVLT which rolled out the Power Point slides they will be using in their upcoming dog and pony show.  The pocket of momentum present in solar fizzled into the bell but still provided impressive gains this week.  I hardly see the run up in YGE being over, and given the ace entry earlier this week and the scaled piece, the best play seems to let my money work here instead of constantly fiddling with the knobs.

The afternoon was all about MHR.  This is another stock I nailed my entry on.  Patiently waiting for quality entries at well-researched levels, even when the battle is at its hottest, gives me a huge edge when it comes time to manage the position.  I don’t get that pinch on my shoulder blades telling me I am losing my cool.  Being up over 10 percent on the name in a scant three trading days and feeling the urge to scale, I decided to do the opposite and buy more.  It brings my average up but still keeps my cost basis within the consolidation range.  It was a good move according to risk.

October is fast approaching and I get the feeling the headless horseman is dusting off the cobwebs and making preparations to thrust his axe into my spine.  Thus, even though I am 95% long, I have a clear sight on the exits.  I feel like a squirrel foraging through a bountiful prairie while hiding from the hawks under a squirrel sized umbrella.  Stocks like AMBA, BALT, MHR, and YGE are giving this small rodent the courage of a lion.  I will eat the poachers faces and then go lay in some mud with the Rhinos.

Such is the life of a squirrel in a tuxedo.

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I added to my MHR long as it breaks out higher

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For most of my tenure as a trader stocks have been treated like a singular asset class and thus tightly correlated to other macro instruments like bonds, the US dollar, gold, and oil.  The binary nature drove me to studying futures because if all stocks were hell-bent on moving as one, I might as well trade them all simultaneously with an ass load of leverage.

I love the futures markets.  They are pure order flow with no dependence on a company and their decisions.  But seeing good companies and more importantly good charts succeed even while the market chops around is exciting.

It makes me want to concentrate more funds into stock trading.

I got caught on the wrong side (the long side) of the quick drop this morning.  Even though I preach plan adherence, I deviated and had to take a ton of heat on my trade.  The poor entry, paired with a non-market related event which shall not be mentioned but which has officially created a rule, caused me to shake out of my long—I shit you not—one tick off the morning swing low (about 11am).  No less than five minutes later, what I had expected—a bit of a bounce to cut my loss into—occurred.

This was a huge setback to my futures trading, huge.  I am so sick of setbacks incurred from plan deviation.  They are huge drains on emotional capital.

I went and had some tacos with a friend.  We talked about hunting mushrooms and it was quite the stimulating conversation and helped clear my mind to assess everything.  Trading structure will be restored for tomorrow’s action and it is good to make these mistakes while trading small, believe me.

Focusing so much energy on work and trading futures allows me to think much more slowly about stocks.  The more I learn from the excellent traders and stock pickers here at iBankCoin the better this approach feels.  My book is up 2.5% today while the Big Board chops the UNCH.

RVLT is a big part of the green portfolio, but it is getting plenty of help from IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, and FB.  My account is straight crack rock and ripping.

I see a huge consolidation occurring, as if we are waiting for news flow to get this party started.  Bull or bear, a party is near—I can hear the bass rumbles in the distance.  Until this decision is clearly made, I will hold the line, 90% long.

My slow money is in AIXG, LO, RVLT, MJNA, FB, O, F, and CREE

My fast money is in AMBA, IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, RBCN, and CLF

I still hold a sharp edge in the futures market and my win/loss ratio shows it.  The p/l however does not yet because of setbacks.  This isn’t over until I win which is simply a matter of time, not if.  This week however, my stock gains are casting a bright glow on my futures losses.

Pro Tip:  Like any business, be sure you are sufficiently capitalized.  Better yet, have other revenue streams so this learning process doesn’t come with the added stress of keeping a roof over your head.

http://youtu.be/cJT1xvDOMB0

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There was an interesting occurrence this morning right before we printed the low of the day.  Price traded down to the overnight lows and then completely stalled.  This was right about when the POTUS took to the podium.  Then, as I had suggested may occur, we breached the overnight (yesterday) low briefly, the flow of stop losses created a temporary oversold condition, buyers reacted to seeing the weak sellers and a sharp buying tail printed on the /ES market profile. We also snapped the following trend line lower, finally:

I bought the YGE full sized amidst all this.  It was very lovely execution that brings a little sparkle to Raul’s eye.

The velocity of the move was enough to put plenty of shorts in the hole.  It should make for an interesting afternoon as value is being set higher then I expected in my scenario 1 balance hypothesis.

With today’s YGE purchase, I am about 85% long, mostly crack rock stocks—stocks like CREE, RVLT, YGE, AMBA, MHR, FB, RBCN, and CLF.

Can you believe I am nearly up 100% on my FB common?  I’m holding steady until at least $100.

The weak-to-strong closing type would be a change of character in the recent market activity and we may be looking at an inflection point.  It is a bit early to tell, but I like my aggressive positioning here.

I intend to use my winnings to finance the purchase of a Tesla Model S, the greatest automobile currently in production.

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We could get together around a campfire and complain about the stock assassins and their research.  We could heat up a pot of baked beans while we jeer about the move in precious metals in the fifteen minutes leading up to the #NoTaper Fed announcement Wednesday.  Then we could sleep next to each other on the dirt staring up at the cosmos and cursing algorithms.

But that’s all loser talk, and I only like small doses of nature.

Instead, let us focus directly on what we can do.  Solutions if you will.

We can manage risk.  MHR is a different approach to entering stocks, I bought weakness.  Normally I enter alongside strength.  Traditionally I would have MHR on my watch list like it was, but I would wait for pricing greater than the last two days to show strength and momentum.  Then it would stall out like it did today and I would sit through a drawdown.  That method still works for me, but I’m working on anticipating the move a step earlier.  I could have already taken a profit in the name, but I am moving purposely slower on these stocks.

Zillow caught me off guard.  I saw it break my range, but I prefer to give stocks the benefit of the doubt meaning let’s see where it closes.  The volume profile below was very thin, we cut right through it.  I did not cut my loss.   Perhaps I will regret this but the stock behaved constructively after the panic abated.  I have managed myself out of uglier head fakes, and I have fumbled losing trades.  That experience helps.  As it stands, I am -6.43 % on a 10% position size.  Oh the humanity.

Zillow and CLF did however knock me off my high water mark.  CLF has not done me wrong yet.  Is the trade wrong?  No, it is only taking heat.  I will take my loss when it is wrong.  I lost my vision on this trade for a bit, but RaginCajun reaffirmed my vision.

There is gap supply coming into CREE.  You have to imagine all of those underwater folks are eager to cash in now that they are being made (partially) whole.  I put some trading capital into this name that needs to be separately managed from my investment.

A trade like RBCN makes up for 3 or 4 losers, this has been a forgiving market for longs.

I was green trading the ES this week, holding my own through some big waves.  This is the most exciting part of my week.  I cannot wait to build upon it next week and also to review my trades over the weekend.

I shut El Roi off before the Fed and have not turned him back on since.  I would imagine he is chomping at the bit to get his grubby algo hands back on the tape but first I must go through the ceremonial revamp of optimizing and chanting and such.

Overall I am just happy to be here, banking coin alongside some of the most insightful minds in trading.  If you have any tickers of interest or general trading/algo questions ga’head, ask me…I will answer them as best I can.

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The market has been unable to compel me into action today.  Instead I have sat here drinking coffee and watching my peers rip the faces off of shorts with supreme ultra-violence.  My goodness, RaginCajun extracts a solid win off of EGLE, passes the baton to Le Fly and here we are, winning the relay.

One of my twitter buds was all over the shippers move too, well done @Apoms24 on the DRYS.

The day after a huge move, overnight or RTH, tends to be tricky intraday.  Therefore, I sat in the bleachers and enjoyed the view.

Book largest-to-smallest: CREE, RVLT, RBCN, AIXG, Z, MHR, FB, CLF, LO, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O

Cash: 20%

Tickers of interest: YGE, FSLR, ONVO, ZNGA, FRO, END, and GMCR

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