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Tag Archives: $KWK

Keep an Eye on Oil Exploration

Once an oil man, always an oil man, until I am told otherwise by our Chief Market Strategist.  With shippers ripping the cover off the ball today, I see no sector pairing better with the action than oil exploration.

I’m currently long MHR but END is the biggest winner thus far today. It is also the stock with the highest combustible energy (short float).  Shorts will point to management incompetency and fallacious oil discoveries.  I’ll point to the price chart—it is going higher in the face of these intelligent misfits whose knowledge base may be better suited for building doomsday shelters.

That being said, END is coming into resistance at six bucks.  Watch it.  Keep it on a wish list and see how it behaves at these levels.  Supply (sell flow) should stall price out.  Should it not, should short covering instead ignite a rally, END could become an eight dollar stock in short order.  That leaves room for over 30% in gains for the mathematically challenged.

I cashed out my END shares a few weeks back.  I threw in the towel a tad too soon, booked five percent and went on my way.  Therefore my own pride pushed my buy trigger over to MHR.

Keep the space on watch, especially if oil firms up.

Other tickers of interest include: BBG, BCEI, BRY, CAK, CEO, CXO, EGY, FANG, GST, KWK, KOG, NBL, PBR, and FST

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Taking a Beating and Liking It

Take your fancy words like masochist and stow them under your chair.  I don’t want to hear them.


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That’s literally how it looks if only to see the chop a bit more pronounced.  MY WHEELS are spinning, you see?

LED stocks as a whole are retracing their 2013 gains after the tepid Q1 forecast from CREE.  To call the move in CREE a retracement however, may be an understatement.  This is panic and margin calls rolled into a giant blunt and smoked, like a clown, by yours truly.

Of course I bought some more CREE today, adding to my [still] green core.  I bought some into the closing bell for $58.85 #timestamp.  Even if only for a trade, I can’t stand by idle and watch my ‘ace boon coon’ CREE get bludgeoned by panicking idiots.  Oh and believe me, I have more bullets to fire at these bitches while they’re concentrated in this back ally trough.

I’m telling you now, send CREE lower, I want it lower.

Send RVLT down too, I’m patient.

I have zero edge trading earnings let’s make that clear as crystal, which it already should be.  I’m building investments here…they’ll make fine x-mas presents.


I cut some small names off my books because the /ES was trading in a downdraft.  I cut PBF, KWK, and ONVO.  I made a killing in ONVO, BTW.  The other two, not so much…

Speaking of the /ES: There’s simply no way for me to broadcast my strategy out to the world.  Back testing and optimizing has created a medium frequency beast that even I can be overwhelmed by.  I took ten trades in the /ES today, 7 were winners and I made 160 bucks trading a 1 lot.  When this system is making 160-250 bucks per contract 4-5 days/week, which it will, it can be scaled to as many contracts are needed to sustain my lifestyle.  Cool, yes?  Then I can abandon this corporate hole and go work for Cree or something.

I’m down a percent and a half today.  My cash is nearly 40 percent partially because of a series of decockings and partially due to the aforementioned sales.  Why the silver trade is back on, I have no idea.  When I return to winship lane I will be wearing an undersized tunic so you can admire my cajonies.

I want you to take that thought and hold it close this evening.


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YGE is The Bruce Lee of Solar Stocks and Other Market Observations

The Yen walked down the stairs lockstep with the SPY rise, like mirrors of one another—starting around lunchtime, which pleases me.

Anytime I trade counter-trend, taking a high quality and back tested setup, and I extract money from the market, I feel like I’m getting away with a sophisticated robbery.  I did it to EXK last week and over the last few weeks I’ve done the same long the Japanese Yen.  Now I’m out and a heavy hand is walking the currency lower.  This gives today’s move a carry feel and suggest we need to keep the carry not in the forefront but more so the back burner of our mind as we progress.

Solar stocks are getting the back ally beat down like they were flashing too much swag in the hood, which they were.  However, YGE is Bruce Lee, water, and deflected the aggressive bear bludgeons with finesse. They put out positive guidance before the bell that had everyone a bit taken aback  because they suggested shipments growth was “significantly better” than expected.  So they’re not jawboning about their FUCKING LEADS, like FSLR, they’re talking shipped product.  They’re shipping that Hanna Montana like Rick Ross, from the Phantom.

RVLT is cooling off a bit post earnings and I’m sitting here wondering if I’m about to get AMBA’d aka ambushed by sellers.  So I’m holding back the additional capital I intend to commit to this name.  But rest assured, I intend to own many more shares of RVLT before the year is through.  CREE on the other hand continues to rise, wall of worrying the old men on the sideline.  In other LED news, RBCN spiked lower after reporting unimpressive revenues but the dip was bought.

My only action today was to take a small position in USU.  I’m playing hot potato with a nuke in this name, but I figure I hate solar so much I might as well diversify my energy holdings.

Here’s my book of energy-type stocks, largest to smallest:


Goldman caught a nasty fade into the bell, I’m not sure how I feel about it, obviously I would have preferred some follow through since it’s my largest holding.  We’re practically back to my cost basis and all I have to show for it is the lint in my pocket as no scales were taken.

For in the futures I took one scalp, to the short side, in the middle of that big afternoon move higher.  I earned a modest $62.50.

My swing book made almost a percent today.  At one point it was up nearly 2 percent.  Cash level is 25 percent.


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Majestic Solar Panels

Years of desensitization from a 90’s childhood playing Grand Theft Auto and Doom, watching ultra-violent movies like American History X, and witnessing the opening of the proverbial floodgates via the World Wide Web has made it very difficult to get me excited.  Perhaps that is why I simply cannot get excited about solar technology.  Or, just maybe, it’s because it lacks POWER.

The Italians get me excited with the eCat, but nobody has proven anything yet.

You may be asking yourself, “Why then, Raul, do we see you taking positions in solar stocks so mucho?”  I could cite the momentum as a reason or I could cite our current administration, but the real answer is I just don’t know.  It’s such boring technology.  Remember, I live in one of the least sunny places on the planet, so I’m sure that weighs in on my bias.

FSLR whiffed on earnings, the highlight of their conference call is their ‘pipeline’ of deals, which we’re to believe they’ll close on, and a new partnership with General Electric.  Cool brah, I have a pipeline of deals too, they just keep ignoring my emails (spam).

Solar just doesn’t spin the turbines yet, which brings us back to my primary 2013 thesis, LED lights.  A business can invest in itself TODAY, replace all of their lighting TODAY, and reduce their electric usage by over 20 percent.  The payback period on the investment is quick, one to three years.  Large shop spaces with high intensity discharge lighting can save even MORE.  THIS TECHNOLOGY, my friends, is a step in the right direction.  AND IT MAKES SENSE TO BUSINESSES, because they’re cash flows aren’t jeopardized for ten, fifteen years.  Silly solar salesmen sitting on their leads.

YGE is Chinese, so they have that going for them.  And by that I mean souped up books and a Chairman that will handle any insolent workers.

Aside from being on the wrong end of the FSLR call, I traded spooz really well.  I pulled out my weekly nut today, fading the down moves early on, then fading the up moves in the afternoon.  It was pretty great, 5 planned trades, 0 unplanned.

I bought KWK thinking it could squeeze.  It didn’t, yet.  I still think it’s priced for certain death and with earnings out of the way and our Mideast Embassies closed, perhaps the energy complex could be in for a bit of summer time madness.

I eyeballed OCZ but missed adding, I’m still long.  Something is about to go down in this name, I can feel it in my bones.

To think, I almost sold CREE today.  I can’t belive that thought crosses my mind, ever.  It’s a stupid thought.  Stupid brain, always getting in my way.

I’m off to mop the floors and brood.

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