Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:43pm ESTComments Off on Buying These Deals Now
INTC revenues came in a bit weak and the stock printed a wild electromagnetic pulse after hours but is mostly unchanged. IBM is up afterhours and SNDK reported great numbers ripping bears to shreds and storing the gif for future enjoyment.
Clearly technology stocks are a store of value. Be sure to ignore EBAY, the home of porn stars and packrats, they’re getting crushed after hours after guiding lower.
It’s been a rather mild first inning of earnings, has it not? Where’s all the fire and brimstone I heard so much about? There’s a lot of baseball left I suppose…
We’re trading along rather quietly amongst the all-time highs this week in many names. My favorite 52 week high is Zillow, printing a very sexual 69 high water mark. Leave it to the real estate folks…
The SPY printed a pronounced head and shoulders pattern intraday, but it never followed thru. It tried once, but was pinched higher after a lack of follow through was presented in the form of selling. We did have a very aggressive seller reaction at the highs this morning. It resulted in me staying long in the futures market all session long, missing lunch, and eventually closing the position for small, stupid gain.
I have so many longs set up well, I had to sell a few shares as sacrifice to the rally gods. I scaled off some FB and some IMMR.
This also gave me some much needed cash, which I promptly placed into GRPN. I know I like today’s action and I’m one to put money where my mouth is. Beyond that I abhor Groupon mainly because I’ve only actually used 2 of the 10 coupons I bought. My assistant buys most of his lunches via their ‘Now’ service, but he has much more time on his hands.
For the day, I’m up on all accounts, albeit modestly. I still want my space launch.
The old me would be stalking EXK today like I did Miley Cyrus last time she was in town, but I’m comporting myself with a bit more grace and self-respect today…like Pepe Le Pew. I learned not to chase miners, EXK in particular, through a long history of daggered hairpin reversals. The name is volatile, I felt early on that I missed the action, therefore I did. I’ll have to tickle my fancies with something else today.
I’ve quite enjoyed being kicked in the scrotum this morning by my newly minted long OCZ. They came out with some preliminary earnings data rather out of the blue, and lo and behold they’re still combating supply issues. “SUPPLIES!” …no surprise. There are worse problems for a company to have, like no sales. Anyway, the stock market is the final arbiter. If the name doesn’t shape up into the bell I may axe it (no piker body spray puke).
I sold a bit more O which is fantastic, this trade played out LOCKSTEP, and now I have my final 1/3 which the market must work very hard to take from my person, as my cost basis (net of booked profits) is now $38.50 aka well below swing lows. I hope we take out the recent swing low, run some stops, and then I’ll add some back on. This is going to be my new AWK, collecting me a coupon while I skip to my lou though the market minefield.
My solar trifecta has me more pleasured than Lil Wayne ‘turked up’ on opiates at a stripper convention. Take your pick: YGE, FSLR, and ENPH the sector is leading higher just as prophesied by the immortal Le Fly and other iBC cast members. Use the green juice to power some CREE bulbs and you’re on the right track, guy.
DDD and PRLB did this morning what I like to call the bear pinch: drive lower, pullback for shorts to enter, make a new low, barely, than quickly rip higher, leaving asshole bears stuck in their underwater positions. Have a great afternoon you harry bastards, it’s hot out there.
RVLT finally lifted off and it has done so without me. I’m instead nearly balls deep in German LED play AIXG, down 1 percent. All dogs have their day, RVLT is a decent company, but they’re no CREE or AIXG fundamentally. RVLT is an instrument for degenerates to trade.
I’m happy to have paired my IMMR with some INVN because to me, they’re the same thing: new tech, chips. INVN appears to be more en vogue.
F won’t let good Americans in unless their 401-k is set to ‘auto-allocate’.
FB still wants to win, while you’re looking elsewhere.
I’ll never own enough Z, but I own it nonetheless.
TPX is still my largest. You will all feel its gentle wrath.
Who thinks BPZ has another squeeze in it? (Raises hand)
That’s my book in a nutshell. I’m considering an FXY long as protection. Call it Kong hedging. iBC is becoming a formidable beast.
My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below. Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.
Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.
I’m brooding so hard right now. But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!? Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it. It’s mine, I spend it.”
Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.
The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action. It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context. So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts. Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.
I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.
Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more. They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late. When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything. I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it. A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD. The next day it makes an even BIGGER move. Pair that with the following bullet points:
Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it? Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4th of July, when I tread lightly.” And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!” This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…
…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.
I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection. Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.” You shouldn’t. I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.” Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.
We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away. SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked. We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions. You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship. That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.
It’s a totally new world we live in. Get out your space helmets friends!
So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes. Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.
I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.
Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:
TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE
I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names. I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.
O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell. The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.
AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half. Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.
F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.
ANGI is still “meh”
CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.
GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.
June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books. Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.
We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains. Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK? It seems unlikely. Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.
So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet. If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan. Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.
I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary. Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate? It’s simple really, like always. The wealthy, like always, they’re confident. They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index. One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed. Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed. Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it? The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load. Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.
Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds. They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position. Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet. UUUuughghgu! Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions? Yep, TPX.
Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name. I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction. Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?
I have 11 other longs aka peak position count. I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:
Yet the sellers can’t gain traction. Every attempt at sending price lower to fill the gap below stalls out. The sell orders are pressuring the bid this afternoon in the S&P minis but not achieving any progress. All of this pressure building up has to go somewhere.
Meanwhile, with the help of The PPT I found some shorts in ENPH and squeezed’em pretty well today. I scaled some profits, but left ½ the position on in case the pain trade continues. The weekly chart suggests it could.
I hopped on board Zillow today after the impressive Pending Home Sales Index, which crushed expectations. I hate when a house goes pending, BTW. When I was about 9 months into my hunt and houses would go pending in less than 3 days listed, I would chastise my real estate agent and damn the illiquidity of homes. This chart looks mint and I want it to keep looking mint so I can size it up. For now, I’m ½ size.
These F shares are working out, up around 4 percent since my entry. So far, we’re looking at a v-shape bounce in a big consumer discretionary. The same goes for TPX. This is like the housing trifecta: Z, F, TPX. You find the house, you buy the car, you buy the bed.
We’ve been trend up all week, which SHOMP-wise makes sense, but for all other intents and purposes seems odd. Now the questions becomes, do we run into the 4th of July? If we do, I want to be in patriotic names, like F.
I’m still in FB, did you know that? I’ve ridden through the trough, and now things are looking really good. This also fits the suburban lifestyle, shack up and talk politics with your delusional relatives. Note: I don’t do FB.
Anyhow, I’m 35 percent cash and long the following names. I’ve bolded my favorites and they’re listed by size, largest to smallest:
AAPL (fml), F, FB, SODA, YGE, Z, IMMR, CREE, TPX, ENPH, and ZION
Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:02pm ESTComments Off on Market Indecision Will Fleece You of Your Coin
Whether you trade weekly, daily, tic, range, or minute charts you MUST recognize a lack of trend and behave accordingly. To trade momentum there must be momentum. I know V.King would enjoy that sentence. Once you recognize conditions where momentum is gone, you must adjust to fading extremes or sideline yourself. That’s it.
I like to use EMAs to give a trend some visual clarity. When EMAs of different speeds (i.e. the 9 and 33 period) converge and then flatten out, that’s a strong indication the market is on pause. Such was the case all morning. Today it was easy for me to avoid because we were working inside a tight market profile and we had the Fed in the afternoon which I knew would give the market a pause. More times than I would like to admit, I haven’t been so astute. And every time I fail to recognize these conditions the alogs pick me to pieces.
I’ve been a doubter of any such trendless action most of June, but as the month drags on it’s becoming a distinct possibility that we’re entering a flat consolidation phase. My 9 and 33 are flattening out and going sideways. It would make sense too given that my momentum plays are all fizzling out. Take a look:
I’ve spent the last few weeks churning my portfolio with small wins and medium losses. All-in-all I’ve given back hard fought gains. Anyone who tells you the gains came easy is wrong and unwashed.
Today I cut most of my China junket. I sold off BIDU, YY, and MY. I sold WETF along with the Fly and I took some profits in CREE, keeping the position about ½ size.
You may notice a much less manic tone in my writing.
I’m up over 50 percent cash now and lost around 1 percent today. Current longs listed largest to smallest are as follows:
YGE, HMIN, IMMR, RVBD, CREE, SCTY, RGLD, TPX, and FB
I want to keep my speculative swing positions down. I’m getting confused, tracking so many positions. Plus liquidation becomes more taxing by my broker.
I’ll ride most of these through the trendless chop of the index. But I swear little allegiance to any and will cut to make room for others.
I don’t love the idea of shorting up here, but both T and JBLU look like great swing shorts to my eye.
Bottom Line: It’s summer now. We may still push higher but we’re showing signs of stalling momentum. This is the third major pullback too, it has a much lower win rate then the first two. HOWEVER, we’re on the proper side of the 33 EMA, my primary demarcation.
Per the modus operandi, I started the day as I always do: panic when the alarm rings and direct my fuzzy eyes to the undersized iPhone for quotes on the futures. “Oh they’re up wonderfully!” my internal dialogue rattled off.
I had my new breakfast, water with no ice. It’s very American to ice your water, especially in the morning. Next the morning commute was divine, showing signs of diminishing congestion. The blessing come summer of less women driving their bastard children to school.
Upon arriving at my terminal, my minion greeted me with coffee. I like my coffee just like my women: hot, black, and strong. I immediately scalp two handles of upside out of the $ES_F. Then I spot the trend change and capture 4 handles down during the gap fill. Oh how lovely a morning it was.
Then the bozos kept selling the futures down. Bozos really, for they’re fighting a losing battle with a structured system much more powerful then they fathom. So I bought more YGE. My foray into trading solar stocks isn’t dead, yet.
As we’re all held victim to the caprices of the Yen and its stupid ETF, FXY, I said forget this and had a walk and enjoyed some fancy tacos. This is nonsensical noise. Eventually this mess will all be sorted, lines will be snorted, and ladies will be courted.
Moving on to more pressing matters:
The very important matter of my birth is just around the corner, and I refuse to let a stupid little currency and the jackass carry traders sully my good time. I’m eating many cakes. I’m eating many cakes with both hands and getting frosting all over my mouse and keyboard. I don’t care.
Do you see how much I’m not caring right now?
Until the market starts bleeding me out via my swing longs, I’m looking at a very green day of future trading pared with some resilient longs, names like CREE, TPX, and IMMR. Hat tip on the haptics good Fly sir.
We know how it ends, but can you stomach the intermediate roller coaster? Find a way how.
The first time I went on a sea voyage was aboard a CCL vomit comet. I remember a storm tossing the boat about and enjoying running down the long hallways, maniacally, whist others hugged a wall and resisted the urge to purge.
I’m not quite to that level of confidence yet in the futures, but I was happy to hold my own today and earn a meager bit of coin. Keep in mind, this could have been a very swell day, but I shorted into the hole and it took 4 handles to find out. Big seas.
I traded a lot, 27 round turns, 16 winners and a sore neck. I closed the day a slight hue of green both in the face and in the books.
I would imagine most people seeing all this work return so little and throwing in the towel. However, I continue to make mistakes, and they continue to cost me money. Once I iron out a few small issues this entire process becomes another income stream.
The market rejected the SPX gap aggressively, impressing upon many the feeling that we may be gearing for a bounce higher. Several of the more studied traders resisted the urge to participate this afternoon, opting instead to save their cabbage until after we see the data tomorrow.
My swing portfolio was up today, lead forward by HMIN, IMMR, and CREE.