I can do anything.

We sure do cover the /ES_F often over here on the Raul blog, discussing its…implications, if you will.  Building the contextual cake helps me to identify abnormalities, flinches, and hand tips by the big money.   The E-mini S&P is the most liquid financial instrument in the world.  It makes sense to pay attention to it.

But trading it has become a slow and painful grind.  It is like going years without a dish washer even though you love to cook.  You get by, but your soul dies a little every day.

I needed some change (No Obama) so I traded the /NQ.  I like the NQ…peep today’s stats:

Thoughts:

• today had a large range
• /NQ is thinner
• smaller contract size suits my size a bit nicer
• I trade lots of Nasdaq and Russell stocks so I may be concentrating my eggs
• It offers more trading opportunities (at least lately)

/ES has been brain numbing, while I go ‘big pimpin’ on these wiry stocks.  Speaking of which, my book was up a percent today.  That is a result of stock prowess and hanging out with traders much more seasoned then me.  Mainly my gains today were a result of being on the right end of a technology revolution.  So while sour bastards get their kicks shorting Tesla, which is fine, I am embracing the future and finding opportunities to invest in it.

In short: CREE and RVLT what what?

I started buying ONVO too, right about at these levels.  You can’t keep me out of this name.  When my pickled organs give out I want robots around to print new ones.  Seems like a no brainer at five fifty.  I consider it an investment in myself.

I sold YGE.  It felt like when I sold VIPS yesterday…too soon-ish.  However, dwelling on these thoughts prohibits the mind from seeking opportunity elsewhere.  I sold RBCN too, for a loss, because it sort of just fell out after mainlining hot money.  I do not want to be around when the Apple WWDC crowd goes running for the doors, should they do so.

ADHD is a ticker which by design frustrates me, ripping higher like a freshman jacked up on Mountain Dew and Ripped Fuel.  Ah high school…when ephedra was still legal.  I have wanted a long on this one for a few weeks but my attention keeps darting away from it.  Instead I want to Snapchat and play ping pong in the futures.

I do not really love the way we are setting up into the weekend.  The market looks like the headless horseman.  Sentiment sucks but the crowd isn’t always wrong.  I have concentrated by book down to the following positions listed largest to smallest:

RVLT, CREE, USO, LO, BALT, AMBA, FB, ONVO, F, IMMR, MJNA, O

That jackass MJNA stock can burn up and go to zero for all I care.  What a garbage stock.  I am -20% on that field play.  I thought about cutting O about 100 times, but I figure keep it and collect the yield.  My basis is a tad below here.

Everything else I hold close to chest.  As a matter of fact, I need more CREE and RVLT but I am exercising patience.  Together the stocks represent almost 30% of my risk capital.

I will let Q4 play out a bit before getting more risk into those two names.  In the mean time I can increase my LED exposure via VECO, RBCN, GTAT, OESX, and LYTS.

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Blocking out the news flow is difficult but the blissful ignorance that comes from it is worth the effort.  Remember if something is important, my well curated twitter stream will tell me.  Better yet, the professionals inhabiting the many rooms of iBankCoin will tell me.  Anything local will be filtered to me via family, colleagues, and friends.  This frees my mind to focus on order flow and sustaining and growing my revenues.

Some days however, often after eating too heavy of a lunch, my attention span degrades by the minute.  For that reason I mostly do not trade futures in the afternoon.  Instead I usually read, stare out the window, or look at Tina Fey nip slip pics.  Nip slips always get my a.d.d. all worked up.

Anyhow, today I closed green by 1.25% even though I was up a rock star 3% intraday.  I scaled off a bit of YGE.  I could afford to do so because I timed my entry perfectly. The market provided me 7% gains, you see, by the time we reached swing high.  I will book that bread any day of the week.  I now have a lower cost basis and as close to a risk free trade as you can get in the markets.

How about that AMBA?  I couldn’t be happier about tossing my Zillow shares in the dumpster to fund my AMBA purchase.  The old me would still be in Zillow. The dead fish action would result in me drawing faces on lemons with a sharpie and then tossing said lemons into my Blendtec emotionlessly.  The house would smell lovely as I died on the inside.

Zillow speaks to the selective nature of our market.  ChessNwine has been keeping this thought at the forefront of our trading mindset in his Weekly Strategy Sessions.  As a matter of fact, he brought my attention back to AMBA too.  I mean, it never left my watch list, and I am a total GoPro fanboy, but the reminder was a nudge on the shoulder if you will.

This AMBA trade has taken conviction.  I am glad to see mine coming back online.

Earlier I said this is all an appetizer, so you may be asking yourself, “What’s for dinner?”  Well my friends, LEDs are for dinner…and sloppy joes.  2013 is the year of the LED, they simply took the 3^rd quarter off.  I have been financing these sleepy laggards with high level SHOMPPERY and 12631 magnificence, but it is high time they come online.  My top picks into the fourth quarter are CREE, RVLT, OESX, LYTS, RBCN, VECO, GTAT, and AIXG.

I like CREE the best as a company, RVLT the best as a young man’s speculative investment, and AIXG for their Germanic tribal nature.   I am long the trinity and will buy more of both after I spank a few more trades for stand up doubles.

I joined Le Doctour in BALT today.  I really just like the chart picture, you know me.  He does all the macro stuff.

Everyone is complaining about the way /ES traded today, but I had one of my better days.  When you have an idea of the context we are in, bobbing along the bottom with no conviction, you know to get the laser sight out and get damn good entries to allow you to get out before the things stalls and reverses.  We are learning over here and making a little bit of money while we do so.  From the high win rate comes larger position sizing and eventually scaling.  Then we make the big bucks.

Ah yes, I nearly forgot the point of this post—Everything you see is fake.  The dog and pony show in Washington over Obamacare and debt ceilings is all fake, jack ass es.  Do you really think any of this really matters, really?  I does not.  The terror threat elevation right at about 3:50pm?  Yes, fake.  Syria, real and sad, but so is every third world where cavemen kill each other for the best poppy fields.  Making noise about them is fake.  I have nightmares about a war on our land all the time because of these pundits and the terror threat bullshit. Even some nip slips are fake. I know, horrible times we live in..

Fear mongering from the glass half empty crowd is dangerous.  Avoid the losers who can’t drop it.

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Years of desensitization from a 90’s childhood playing Grand Theft Auto and Doom, watching ultra-violent movies like American History X, and witnessing the opening of the proverbial floodgates via the World Wide Web has made it very difficult to get me excited.  Perhaps that is why I simply cannot get excited about solar technology.  Or, just maybe, it’s because it lacks POWER.

The Italians get me excited with the eCat, but nobody has proven anything yet.

You may be asking yourself, “Why then, Raul, do we see you taking positions in solar stocks so mucho?”  I could cite the momentum as a reason or I could cite our current administration, but the real answer is I just don’t know.  It’s such boring technology.  Remember, I live in one of the least sunny places on the planet, so I’m sure that weighs in on my bias.

FSLR whiffed on earnings, the highlight of their conference call is their ‘pipeline’ of deals, which we’re to believe they’ll close on, and a new partnership with General Electric.  Cool brah, I have a pipeline of deals too, they just keep ignoring my emails (spam).

Solar just doesn’t spin the turbines yet, which brings us back to my primary 2013 thesis, LED lights.  A business can invest in itself TODAY, replace all of their lighting TODAY, and reduce their electric usage by over 20 percent.  The payback period on the investment is quick, one to three years.  Large shop spaces with high intensity discharge lighting can save even MORE.  THIS TECHNOLOGY, my friends, is a step in the right direction.  AND IT MAKES SENSE TO BUSINESSES, because they’re cash flows aren’t jeopardized for ten, fifteen years.  Silly solar salesmen sitting on their leads.

YGE is Chinese, so they have that going for them.  And by that I mean souped up books and a Chairman that will handle any insolent workers.

Aside from being on the wrong end of the FSLR call, I traded spooz really well.  I pulled out my weekly nut today, fading the down moves early on, then fading the up moves in the afternoon.  It was pretty great, 5 planned trades, 0 unplanned.

I bought KWK thinking it could squeeze.  It didn’t, yet.  I still think it’s priced for certain death and with earnings out of the way and our Mideast Embassies closed, perhaps the energy complex could be in for a bit of summer time madness.

I eyeballed OCZ but missed adding, I’m still long.  Something is about to go down in this name, I can feel it in my bones.

To think, I almost sold CREE today.  I can’t belive that thought crosses my mind, ever.  It’s a stupid thought.  Stupid brain, always getting in my way.

I’m off to mop the floors and brood.

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Pardon my intraday absence, today was certainly one for the record books in tasks-completed terms.  My head, it’s still spinning.  At this point I’ve abandoned hope of completing today’s docket, stared out the window hopelessly, shot gunned my last Monster beverage (kidney stones in a can as I call it) and picked up my pen to debrief my internet people.

This was one hell of a trading session if you ask me.  The SPY was dead tuna.  I traded early on, via my /ES_F, putting in two really impressive trades, if I do say so myself.  Aside very quickly: did you see scenario 1 on this morning’s market profile report?  I wield a razor sharp fife before dawn and the market is my fiddle, dancing like I’m shooting bullets at its feet.  I’m not caring so much about mangling that metaphor to bits.  Anyhowdooski, I bought the LOD, so very nice, so very clean, grabbed two handles, then I bought again, grabbed another 1.5 handles and went on my merry way.

The volume was awful in the futures, it was like trading /6e_F back in my 3am polyphasic days.  I used to run such a tight schedule I even timed my shits, times were odd to say the least.

In the stocks, I sold GTAT and END, nearly top ticking both.  I felt like such a boss.  GTAT reported today after the bell and guess what?  They’re crushing!  Something about the current economy and their involvement in the LED and solar game has demand picking up on their end.  Indeud.

END was a little spinner for me, a marvelous few nights gaining all over it, then I sold out, leaving it without notice.  But I’ll tell you this, if it keeps acting right, I’ll be back before you know it, especially because my girl Sooz is all over it.

All of the sudden and without warning, my cash was over 60 percent!  Puke, I don’t care if we’re printing high water marks on low volume, there are stocks setting up, I needed more exposure.  So this little piggy went to the market:

I bought ONVO @ $4.82

I bought YGE @ $4.00

Then I bought more YGE @ $3.96

I had a little bit of YGE kicking around in the old port prior to these purchases.  I’ve been in YGE for a while now, we have a thing sort of going on, YGE and me.  So…we’re going to make it a little more serious.  Why?  Because FSLR reports tomorrow, it could be a catalyst for the whole industry if they report strong.  And if Premier Obama wants to hang his fedora on anything during his administration, it god damned better be outperformance by the solar industry in AMERICA.  Home of the free baby!

And the irony of course is how I’m looking to benefit from this via a CHINESE solar stock, MAU!

Say what you will, but the manufacturing goes down in China, not our backyards, Gus.

ONVO I can’t say much for except, if I keep drinking these Monsters, somebody better be around to print me a new kidney, the tube that runs from my kidney to my bladder, a new bladder, and a new penis, because it’s all on the line.

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Everyone’s getting their panties in a bind over tomorrow morning’s premarket jobs data, thus I thought it my public service to broadcast my book into the bell.

Enjoy,

Raul

 

Here’s my book, by size, biggest listed first and cascading in size smaller and smaller as the list goes on:

AIXG, FXY, F, CREE, FB, I, END, IMMR, YGE, GTAT, OCZ, BPZ, and O

Cashish, it’s high, about 50%

TOP PICK: I WISH I HAD ZILLOW DAMN!

I like END the best baby

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The inefficiencies of the market place are working their way to the surface this week, or so it seems to my eyes.  I want fresh cash ready to deploy into the market so I used this morning’s strength to toss out some old names and make way for new.

I closed out my TPX long near $40.  I thought it best to avoid staring at this gift horse for too long.  I lost 9 percent on the trade.  Not too shabby.  I like when I get excited about a loss, it means big wins are near.

I closed my EXK runner out too.  The USA dollar was ripping overnight and I’m not trying to get fancy.  The runner was still 4 percent in the profit so I cashed it out.

I cut AMBA, I’m not liking what the tea leaves are showing:

I planned on selling GTAT and OCZ this morning too, but after hesitating a brief moment they’re both back in the slop trough with other opportunities.

These sales brought my cash up to 50 percent.  I may miss a big blow off move on the Fed this afternoon, but should we see a downdraft I’ll be more prepared to pounce.

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And just like that I’m managing a -10% position.  It’s 2/3 size too, dragging my book down nearly a full percentage.  I’m talking about none other than action camera extraordinaire Ambarella, Inc.

“It just happened so fast.” – Famous last words.

Seriously though, this is what happens when you’re caught in a momentum downdraft.  There were too many weak hands in this name apparently.  Perhaps the weak hands still exist, flailing around, in need of correction.

I’ll have you know I’ve been corrected my entire life.  My 4^th grade teacher would slap my hands with a yard stick for disrupting Bible studies.  Even with carbon dating, I could never convince her dinosaurs existed.

“God put dinosaur bones in the ground to test our faith in Jesus.”  Right…may I have another slice of Jesus body?  I’m starving.

With AMBA, we’re in an IPO environment and the company creates camera components.  It’s not some social concept that curious minds gather around and debate where the money comes from.  IT COMES FROM SELLING PRODUCT.  There ought to be some buyers down here, perhaps at my final buying tranche.

I’ve clearly built into the name too soon, enticed by the virgin blood.  I’m in bed with the name now, prepared to deploy more capital between $15.50 – $14.25.

TPX went on a rally today, still my largest position, and perhaps I should just cut my losses at this point, down a mere 10 percent.  Perhaps, but the chart resembles bracketed trade, ranging from 35 – 50 so the greater risk at this very moment is to the downside.  That is, if my bracket theory is correct.

FaceBook is really bringing some heat to the market.  It’s exciting to see.

I had quite the run on GTAT today, but I’ve already sold most of it, booking a cool 6 percent in profits.  I’ll always grab that bread when it’s offered.  I still hold a runner that wants more, more, more.

I’ve held AIXG for so long, since June, and it has done NOTHING.  HOWEVER, it has done nothing.  All the while Europe is sucking, including Aixtron’s brethren from another reverend Deutsche Bank whiffing on earnings.  So perhaps any updraft will lift this name with great vengeance and furious anger?  I’ll stick around a bit longer.  This is my German LED play, BTW.

I have several other small positions, 25% cash, and a 10% FXY position as we ride into a very headline heavy day tomorrow.  I suppose I’m feeling lucky.

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I’m having an interesting morning as the Chinese say, with much to keep my attention and interest.  I closed out FIVE for a 2% loss after the broad market lost its momentum.

Early on I had eyes on both GTAT and RBCN, suspecting one of the sapphire names to run.  I went with GTAT and the position is up 2 percent so I should be happy right?  Wrong!  RBCN was the choice to make, up as much as 10 percent on the day.

TPX is working off some of the post-earnings selloff and the only news I see is they’re supplying the Chicago Bears with beds during training camp.  Please dispose of said beds in the proper biohazard receptacle afterwards.

FB lead by heartthrob Mark Zuckerberg is gliding along like a boat on the Spanish Riviera, all the while Marc whispering sweet nothings into my ear.

AMBA is going full Jeb Corliss for the time being.  I like it because it lets me know the name has a pulse.  Remember, momentum cuts both ways.

One long in the S&P futures, took a 1.5 handle loss. The trade had an 85 % plan compliance.

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Apropos that I would get all excited about the LED industry last night and not over the weekend putting me one day behind the move.  The kicker of it all was stalking GTAT yesterday but not pulling the trigger.  I wanted to see a capitulation move lower.  This is an example of an opportunity where getting half my position on would have worked.  And given the gaptastic nature of AIXG, I don’t want to chase it higher.  I’m shaking my fist at the entire industry.  At least I have my CREE.

All last night I thought about how much I wished I had bought BIDU and SCTY into the bell.  They both looked great on a closing basis.  So I came to market and bought them both today.  Now I don’t really want SCTY.  I can be so fickle at these choppy junctures.  No less than three times I’ve considered rolling all the SCTY funds into BIDU.

I’m getting really excited about this TPX trade, it’s working out well.  Look at that weekly chart.  Another strong weekly candle has to have you seriously considering this name for an intermediate term swing long.  Yes, I’m talking my book.

I cut RENN and HSOL, but the rest of my China basket is in place, lined up in marching formation, ready for ramming speed.  Actually HSOL looks ready for ramming speed too.

At one point I was 92 percent long.  I had to adjust that down a bit.  I cut ODP, RENN, HSOL, and DDD.  All-in-all, I have too many longs if you ask me.  I’m bombarded with great setups and my ADD has gotten the best of me.  None of these trades looks bad at this point; they just don’t look as good as my other longs.

Now I’m sitting 75 percent long, awaiting The Fed.  I’m very slightly red on the day, and my broker loves me.

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Today the weather in Detroit is a special kind of bleak where it rains all day but it’s too cold to melt the snow.  It is the magic of pure Michigan in February.  I’ve seen February days more dreary then the line outside the 36^th District.  Today ranks top three dumpy days.

So what can one do to lift the spirits and remember the sun?  Exactly, bank coin in solar stocks!  The sector is on a tear today.  There’s a whole political theme behind these names, but you’re better off pulling up the price charts for these names and sticking with the biggest winner.

I’m currently long FSLR, and after getting rolled on yesterday, it appears the damage never happened.  It was fake.  Coin can continue to be banked in these names.  Don’t chase anything, as the names are volatile, but keep them on your radar this quarter as the sector is running.  Considering February is traditionally a weak month for the industry, this action suggests an unseasonably strong appetite for solar stocks.

Other names I like: TSL, SOL, JKS, and GTAT (which gets a little LED play too.  Unless LED makers abandon sapphire, which they might)

UPDATE: I stole this FSLR chart from Elizamae’s archives, note the dick guillotine:

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