The selling continues this afternoon, with sellers continuing their blitzkrieg campaign with a 2pm algorithmic shock wave. A block trade like the one we just experienced at 2pm is a way of starting a siphon—the algo sucks on the tube with the intent of motivating atmospheric pressure to move liquid(ity). Once it starts the flow, a force of equal or greater value must arrive to stop the force.
There’s nothing wrong with sell algos, they just receive more criticism then buy algos. They are both attempting the same feat.
Keep the context of our market in mind. It is mid-December, we have had a huge run, correlations are low, the long term trend is higher, risky assets continue seeing cash inflow, and sellers just controlled their first week since mid-summer.
With that in mind, and despite my extensive coverage of the indices, I think it is important to keep your focus on individual setups and how they are behaving.
My book is going out 95% long after purchasing OWW today at the top tick. I have other names of interest, including LEDS basing just below one dollar.
My AMZN YOLO lottery ticket was a loser. I risked the entire premium because it was a lottery ticket. It had a moment of hope early on, but could not breach recent overhead supply. The trade needed more time than one day. I realized this soon after taking the trade, and was discussing how TSLA would have been a more prudent YOLO…if there is such a thing.
I never grabbed ENPH yesterday. Instead I just watched it and commented on it. Now I cannot buy it and it can likely go much higher. I simply lack to conviction to assume nearly 20% more risk.
My book of stocks spun donuts in the mud this week even though I have winners among my ranks. Here’s the book, largest-to-smallest:
BALT, OWW, FSLR, GRPN, TSLA, YELP, RVLT, YGE, Z, LO, WBMD, GOGO, CREE, F, and my bane MJNA.
Final word of on the market – this looks like discouragement phase, where the market makes an earnest attempt to steal away your favorite shares. Review your risk plans, make adjustments where necessary, and stick to them. Do not assume gains are guaranteed.
We’ve had good fun poking the stupidity of Morgan Stanley in their downgrade of AMBA this month. We banked some nice coin along the way. The recent leg up in our aging index rally has been mostly to the benefit of old men and their mega cap stocks. The snoozers, if you will. We participated where appropriate, riding LO and PPC, but to be honest I could have held less crack rock and more bourbon and cigars, the preferred vice of old men.
But today we saw the speculative juices begin to sizzle. Today we had WUBA pulling out the tits, Emily Ratajkowski style. Today was for the brazen and the bold, with social media saying, “not.just.yet my friend.” So my portfolio finally caught a decent boost.
I think there is more in store and I implore iBankCoin readers to get in line at the feeders: names like GRPN, Z, FB, TWTR, and TRIP. Pay special attention to TRIP as it appears poised to rip.
I am 95% long and low on cash. I had to sell PPC today to buy Zillow. I have so much money tied up in LEDs right now and they are not doing a thing, except for bleeding me modestly. This industry is ice cold, yet I love it. What is an intermediate term speculator to do?
We caught the Apple breakout yesterday via 12631 service.
Top picks into the turkey: GOGO, YELP, and Z.
I have huge positions in CREE and BALT, yet I do not mention them as top picks. Hmm…they need to DO SOMETHING.
It turns out the NASDAQ printed what is called a normal day in market profile theory and the fun thing about normal days is they are anything but. In fact, they are rather rare.
And I must say I do not particularly like normal days, at least not up here at swing highs, because they tend to occur at or near inflection points. A normal day is described as having a very wide initial balance (first hour of trade) which is not breached for the remainder of the session. It suggests indecision, intraday, mostly signaling directional conviction is low.
That context makes sense if think about gapping higher, in a hot (too hot?) bull trend, into a short holiday week. Short sellers do not want to get steamrolled in the thin trade, buyers are hesitant to initiate additional exposure at these elevated levels, and current longs are likely mulling taking profits.
Add to that the narrow pockets of market momentum and you have a solid recipe for indecision.
I have my book about 90% long at this indecisive juncture. AMBA finally went to work, crushing the hopes and dreams of Morgan Stanley analysis hoping to make a name in the technology space. I like to think this guy who downgraded AMBA will read the Raul blog, so I have a special message for him: this chipset powers the GoPro, it is on the X-mas list of every adventurer. Short interest, albeit modest, will start to get icy hands as we approach December 5th earnings. Then they will start making mistakes.
The chicken trade adhered to the November seasonality statistics, naturally, unlike the unnatural meat produced in PPCs new streamlined robot facilities. December brings a tad bit more seasonality mojo, and we still have national eat 1-to-3-birds-at-once day Thursday. I took an obligatory 1/3 scale today, but I like my prospects with the net.
I bought AAPL back right near the closing bell. If you recall, I was in this trade a few weeks back and bailed with a little 2 percent gain. It is an easy vehicle for me to lever long exposure up and down, as it consolidates along gently.
I now hold large positions in the following names, listed largest-to-smallest:
GOGO, RVLT, BALT, YELP, and CREE
These are all full size positions. As you may imagine, this type of book requires attentiveness. It has the capability of lopping 10% off my person rather effortlessly.
My ¾ size positions are as follows, listed again largest-to-smallest:
AMBA, AAPL, PPC, LO, and TSLA
Note: AMBA was by far my largest position prior to taking a scale near today’s high. Tesla and their innovative CEO Elon Musk are in the house of pain. Much like any successful individual, the media will frame Elon with a skeptical eye. Innovators hunt profit and self-gain after all, which is inherently evil. The issue most closely watched at TSLA is the battery technology. If it is to usher in the era of zero emission commuting, it needs to hold up to rigorous scrutiny. If Telsa intends to roll out a model for the middle class, they need sound battery technology established. The chart is just basing out, below my favorite moving averages, suggesting acceptance of these lower prices. What likely comes next is a new exploration lower by price. This will scare most of you. But I will be casually observing the action, minding the drawdown to my books, and meticulously selecting an opportunity to ratchet up exposure because I love me some sweet baby Elon.
I have dog and pony positions in the following stocks. These positions are practically placeholders and some are relics from prior trades:
F, FXY, ONVO, TWTR, MJNA, and O
I thought I would turn a clever trick in MJNA. Now I am -40% on this stupid, STUPID, holding. It will enjoy a fake pump service or go to zero otherwise I will continue to hold this dumbness.
ONVO needs to die for a while. It trades poorly. I will keep my toe in the water to keep my eyes on the name.
TWTR is another name I will hold until zero. I use twitter more than any other social media service in the world, why wouldn’t I own it? One day I will have huge size, but right now there simply is not much to base my risk on. Therefore I wait.
This post has gone on far too long. These are my holdings and some reasoning behind them. Let’s see how they perform this week.
Today the old man woke up at a customary 4am, sans alarm clock, and slowly rose from his twin-size bed positioned appropriately across the room from his wife. He prepared his straight razor with smooth swipes across the grit of his sharpening belt. His thin lips held onto a cigarette as he removed any trace of facial hair with a generation of confidence. He swung the washroom door open and emerged from a thick cloud of smoke in a Tom Ford suit and said, “I want Cisco.”
And so went the day. Old men across the nation dialed their rotary phones and demanded their brokers buy shares of CSCO, in 1000 lot increments, until instructed to stop. The action firmed up the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500.
We are only 10 points away from the 1800 market on the SPX and I am 95% long. There was a mix of winners on the day. The peddlers sold down GOGO today after an impressive gap which is to be expected from the degenerate class. Meanwhile ONVO ripped the hearts out of shorts and fed them to the pigs.
The chicken play in PPC is setting up finally, and if we close the week out strong prospects look solid for a rise into the gluttonous festivities of Thanksgiving.
Facebook wants needs to corner the sexting market. Without it, they are vulnerable to rapid extinction due to lack of attracting teenage use. On the contrary, teenagers are smoking LO’s Blu brand eCigarettes at a growing rate. LO is winning over the next generation of smoking class.
I am completely out of energy, here’s my book:
AMBA, PPC, AAPL, GOGO, RVLT, TSLA, LO, YGE, WLT, SFM, BALT, CREE, F, ONVO, FXY, TWTR, MJNA, and O
Many of those are partials. The main size is from AMBA-to-WALT
My Halloween was a rather non-event. A few children came to my door demanding tricks or treats and I drank one mug of cider and rum. It took a while to unwind yesterday’s action. I played it though my head a few times, remembering the subtle moments when the market gave me a little wink.
Then today came. I anticipated sell flow on the S&P which led me to offer three scenarios that emphasized sellers. But I never felt confident on the short side intraday. The moves were too unorthodox according to my practice, and I could tell I was out of my element (Extra Donny).
Come 11am I started selling down my long exposure a bit. I trimmed where I could selling parts of my LO, GOGO, and BALT. Something about the AMBA bounce did not sit well with me so I scratched this position entirely. I know flip-flopping can frustrate spectators, but some of these positions require confirmation for me to stick around. AMBA stalled and after I gave my book a hard look AMBA stood out. I still like the stock.
My two largest positions now are PPC and WLT. This is completely unacceptable. A young gent like me should not have size in stupid chicken and coal interests. That is plain vanilla dumb. I want my size in places like GOGO and Zillow and FaceBook. You know, new companies.
Fortunately I have these TSLA shares. I was so excited to finally own TSLA shares that I exclaimed the news to friends. I have no idea what has me so god damned excited to own TSLA shares. Of all the positions we go through on a weekly basis, I have never excitedly told friends about any. That being said, I should probably just sell the stock now because I am way to enthusiastic about it.
I boosted cash up to 25% into the weekend because I am sticking with the theme that a large seller is at work in the S&P futures market. Until that seller slips up and loses control, I am keeping some cash to buy up your margin liquidations. Individual stocks are still working though, much to my dip buying chagrin. October did not have a “day of terror” where everything goes on sale.
Ladies, gentlemen, please…allow me a moment to address the market.
You may not make it down to the Raul blog often, but I reside rather gingerly on the front page of iBankCoin. I know that my continued existence in these hallowed halls amongst the finest strangers the internet has to offer depends on one very important matter: banking coin at criminal rates.
After exhibiting complacency two weeks ago Friday I have been on the receiving end of a severe bludgeoning via shares of PPC due to a salmonella scare. I regret to inform you I was forced out of this position today and took a large loss. Let’s talk about large losses.
This was a ten percent position and I stopped out at twelve and a half percent. Math:
0.1*0.12=0.012
I lost 1.2% of my account value. Part of me wanted to ride the stock into earnings for the glory. I envisioned myself riding into town on a chicken-drawn chariot with plebs laying olive branches on the street. Upon reaching to town square I would be handed the ceremonial staff to perform a blessing of the populares, restoring balance to the social classes.
But in a rather stoic manner I cut the shares loose. Because the truth is public perception is fickle. Many of you are simple, as am I, and lack the resources or time to give a company a full fundamental shake. I know inputs to making chicken meat are down across the board, but so does anyone else who analysis this company. Elon Musk set a new standard with his quick assessment and public response to the Model S fire and now I expect the same from all companies. I get Old Wall Street silence instead. So PPC and its shareholders can go fly a kite for all I care and I’m back in the sewers, hungry as ever.
I cut LEDS too. Perhaps the critics were fiddling with their catalytic converters when I scaled 10% profits one day into my campaign. That would justify tossing tomatoes in my direction when I cut my net position for a scratch.
Finally, I cut SCTY. Let’s say you love bath salts but all you can find on sale is old fashioned Mexican speedball. You decide something is better than nothing and in your constant urge for instant gratification you gobble like ten Mexican speedballs. But since you want that bath-salt-bug-eyed rage fueling your body while you chew arms off hobos, you find the speed only providing an uneasy feeling in the pit of your stomach. That’s why I cut SCTY for a 3.4% loss.
My final move was buying a modest allotment of AMBA shares. Morgan Stanly flip flops and the investment community dumps Ambarella? GMAFB. Well actually, you did give me a break because this was an opportunity to get back on board stock in a great company. I liked it at 22, why wouldn’t I love it at 20? I am a buyer of further weakness.
Now I have 22% cash power to buy some blood and a stable of stocks fit for an entrepreneur. Largest-to-smallest friends, largest-to-smallest like always:
GOGO (huge), LO (+15% what?), ONVO, WLT (Walter), RVLT (a love/hate), AMBA (SAIL!), SFM, CREE, SLW, F, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and the big O
That is a hot look. I like this basket of stocks. I have a few names I want to add to the pot to get back to full long exposure but I am content to ride into tomorrow’s spooky trade with some cashish. The Fly’s ALJ has the look, FB is making ATH after hours, and YELP is at a slight discount.
FINALLY: YOU SHOULD COME INSIDE 12631. There is a free trial tomorrow and Friday ONLY. I do my best work in there with little-to-no shenanigans. I would love to see some of my twitter buddies in there. The password for the free trial will be released at midnight, so you vampires can come inside tonight and kick some ideas around and us normal folk will see you bright and early.
Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:23pm ESTComments Off on Searching For A Pulse
The old market of stocks is becoming ever more selective while the indices teeter like humpty dumpty atop a gigantic wall of worry. The markets are rewarding patience…lots of patience. I continue to profile a large short who is hard at work in the S&P and I am beginning to feel her palms sweating.
Two earnest attempts were made by aggressive sellers today to press price lower. I see there footprints all over my undersized 24-inch Samsung screens. First came the huge order absorption Friday afternoon and then today two aggressive, menacing attempts at driving price lower by hitting the bids HARD.
Both times the damn dip buyers presented themselves.
Now Monday is over and Apple is trading modestly lower as are the /NQs yet the stodgy S&P is lingering. It is lingering like your friend’s friend at the end of the night. It is lingering like the drunken buffoon after last call. The S&P is lingering like a stubborn snail on your porch. The longer the S&P persists at lingering, the warmer the room becomes where the big short resides. The walls get heavy. The sounds of colleagues chatting and printers printing erupt into a confusing noise. Suddenly there’s no air in the room but in reality their breathing has stopped. Their brain is failing. In short, anxiety is building for the massive short.
Or it isn’t. This is all a subjective analysis of a hypothetical seller being profiled by an odd stranger on the internet, yes?
I sold that USO long, taking a 5 percent loss. It looks decent but it was stupid of me to tie up so much money in oil when there is crack to smoke and chocolate to eat. I thought parking 10% of my assets in the name would be like a voluntary break from the action to keep me honest.
Well, it kept me honest and lost me money. That is honestly dumb.
I resisted the strong urge to buy SCTY today although I should have. After hesitating briefly, it appreciated by a dollar and I was no longer interested. At least that is what I tell myself today.
More GOGO had to be purchased. This stock has comported itself with the utmost decency even while other momentum stocks flung solid body waste at one another. It was already a 10% position last week, now it’s nearly 15 my friends.
I still have this PPC chicken stock and corn, soybeans, grains, and any other GMO puke they input into these foul beasts is cheaper than ever. This is without question the overplay for the underlay with the salmonella news as a backdrop.
Anyone who follows the LED industry knows our available and investable companies have been tossed into The Fly’s fag box. RVLT continued being a cerebral pain by trading down. It went down, okay? It is down for no reason in particular aside from having a loose corporate structure and managing to eke out 500% plus gains on the year. You may continue seeing profit taking in this wild stock.
In short, my cash is up and I am concentrating my risk where the momo is chasing.
I bought more $GOGO shares making it my largest position.
If you buy GOGO beacause of this post you will spend your next holiday stuck on the tarmac next the the big guy and a crying/sick baby. And you may lose money.
There are crazy moves, both ways, going down in this market of stocks.
Early on we had a pretty solid read on the Nasdaq and S&P and we were talking through the psychology inside the 12631 pay wall. I trade little blips in the gyrations of the NASDAQ and my current goal is not to earn money but instead to consistently identify, trigger, and manage one trading picture. I have set the lofty goal of being right 75% of the time. This is for me to prove TO ME that I have the fortitude to trade futures before committing adult money to the venture.
But I was watching my move play out and I started noticing excessive aggression from the sellers. Have you ever walked up to a girl and started talking game only to quickly find out her husband or boyfriend is close in tote? Said boyfriend often puffs out his chest and behaves like a primate because he feels threatened. This is overreacting and once it happens you can almost rest assured you have won…something, life, the momentary affection of the women, whatever. Market participants do the same thing all the time just before they lose. The more you watch the tape, the clearer it becomes.
Anyhow, sellers started acting like scared bitches just before eleven and the S&P was trading up into the key battle linehighlighted this morning. This is what had me buying WDAY and WLT. I got in before the pop and used most of my money doing it. I am now 95% long and uncomfortably so.
So I went into my portfolio and tried really hard to find something to sell before the market makes me sell and I came out empty handed. I know, it is completely negligent to be 95% long way up here but I cannot justify selling any of my positions where they stand.
I honestly feel as pickled into a catch 22 as I have ever felt in my trading career.
Off topic: I have sustained myself on water and candy ONLY today. My eyes feel like they want to explode and gush sugar all over my keyboard.
Not chocolate nutty candy either…just the crack: taffies, lemon heads, now and later cubes, dubble bubbles (apropos), and jujyfruits.
Gallons of water.
Somebody convince me to sell one of these holdings, largest-to-smallest:
ONVO, PPC, RVLT, USO, LO, WLT, GOGO, ADHD, CREE, WDAY, SLW, F, LEDS, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and O
