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Stock Pickers Market and Deviating from The Trading Plan

For most of my tenure as a trader stocks have been treated like a singular asset class and thus tightly correlated to other macro instruments like bonds, the US dollar, gold, and oil.  The binary nature drove me to studying futures because if all stocks were hell-bent on moving as one, I might as well trade them all simultaneously with an ass load of leverage.

I love the futures markets.  They are pure order flow with no dependence on a company and their decisions.  But seeing good companies and more importantly good charts succeed even while the market chops around is exciting.

It makes me want to concentrate more funds into stock trading.

I got caught on the wrong side (the long side) of the quick drop this morning.  Even though I preach plan adherence, I deviated and had to take a ton of heat on my trade.  The poor entry, paired with a non-market related event which shall not be mentioned but which has officially created a rule, caused me to shake out of my long—I shit you not—one tick off the morning swing low (about 11am).  No less than five minutes later, what I had expected—a bit of a bounce to cut my loss into—occurred.

This was a huge setback to my futures trading, huge.  I am so sick of setbacks incurred from plan deviation.  They are huge drains on emotional capital.

I went and had some tacos with a friend.  We talked about hunting mushrooms and it was quite the stimulating conversation and helped clear my mind to assess everything.  Trading structure will be restored for tomorrow’s action and it is good to make these mistakes while trading small, believe me.

Focusing so much energy on work and trading futures allows me to think much more slowly about stocks.  The more I learn from the excellent traders and stock pickers here at iBankCoin the better this approach feels.  My book is up 2.5% today while the Big Board chops the UNCH.

RVLT is a big part of the green portfolio, but it is getting plenty of help from IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, and FB.  My account is straight crack rock and ripping.

I see a huge consolidation occurring, as if we are waiting for news flow to get this party started.  Bull or bear, a party is near—I can hear the bass rumbles in the distance.  Until this decision is clearly made, I will hold the line, 90% long.

My slow money is in AIXG, LO, RVLT, MJNA, FB, O, F, and CREE

My fast money is in AMBA, IMMR, MHR, YGE, BALT, RBCN, and CLF

I still hold a sharp edge in the futures market and my win/loss ratio shows it.  The p/l however does not yet because of setbacks.  This isn’t over until I win which is simply a matter of time, not if.  This week however, my stock gains are casting a bright glow on my futures losses.

Pro Tip:  Like any business, be sure you are sufficiently capitalized.  Better yet, have other revenue streams so this learning process doesn’t come with the added stress of keeping a roof over your head.

http://youtu.be/cJT1xvDOMB0

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Turnaround Tuesday

There was an interesting occurrence this morning right before we printed the low of the day.  Price traded down to the overnight lows and then completely stalled.  This was right about when the POTUS took to the podium.  Then, as I had suggested may occur, we breached the overnight (yesterday) low briefly, the flow of stop losses created a temporary oversold condition, buyers reacted to seeing the weak sellers and a sharp buying tail printed on the /ES market profile. We also snapped the following trend line lower, finally:

trendlinesnap

I bought the YGE full sized amidst all this.  It was very lovely execution that brings a little sparkle to Raul’s eye.

The velocity of the move was enough to put plenty of shorts in the hole.  It should make for an interesting afternoon as value is being set higher then I expected in my scenario 1 balance hypothesis.

With today’s YGE purchase, I am about 85% long, mostly crack rock stocks—stocks like CREE, RVLT, YGE, AMBA, MHR, FB, RBCN, and CLF.

Can you believe I am nearly up 100% on my FB common?  I’m holding steady until at least $100.

The weak-to-strong closing type would be a change of character in the recent market activity and we may be looking at an inflection point.  It is a bit early to tell, but I like my aggressive positioning here.

I intend to use my winnings to finance the purchase of a Tesla Model S, the greatest automobile currently in production.

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Finishing My Coffee

The market has been unable to compel me into action today.  Instead I have sat here drinking coffee and watching my peers rip the faces off of shorts with supreme ultra-violence.  My goodness, RaginCajun extracts a solid win off of EGLE, passes the baton to Le Fly and here we are, winning the relay.

One of my twitter buds was all over the shippers move too, well done @Apoms24 on the DRYS.

The day after a huge move, overnight or RTH, tends to be tricky intraday.  Therefore, I sat in the bleachers and enjoyed the view.

Book largest-to-smallest: CREE, RVLT, RBCN, AIXG, Z, MHR, FB, CLF, LO, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O

Cash: 20%

Tickers of interest: YGE, FSLR, ONVO, ZNGA, FRO, END, and GMCR

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Lots of Hand Sitting

I couldn’t pull the trigger on anything today, not to sell existing shares, not to buy new shares, and I have SKF already which feel like a bit much in this tape.

I stalked CREE today, it is setting up perhaps.  I wanted to buy shares much lower, so if this setup does trigger I may just trade a piece and go back into my core size (3/4).

Current longs, by size: RBCN, SKF, RVLT, AIXG, CREE, FB, LO, EXK, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O.

Cash around 25 percent.

The O was very strong at the open.  That is a nasty little fade right there.

I lost some money in the futures today when I was shaken out of my short by the clown show in my brain.  I called the head and shoulders this AM to the tick.  But instead of capitalizing on it, I sat in traffic listening to Traffic.  The clown ring leader is Gary Busey.

I’m holding out for my favorite setups before I put any more cash to work.

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Full Position Synopsis

Into the weekend I would like to very briefly run down my portfolio holdings and the reasoning behind each.  This information is coming off the rip after a long week.  Thus any thing with a flimsy justification may need to go.

Here we go, from largest to smallest holding:

Cash – I have 20 percent of my book sitting cash.  I’m eager to deploy it on the long side

SKF – I’m using a three year volume profile chart to view BRK/B, WFC, GS, C, etc. and I see a great volume pocket below prices.  Plus they’ve broken down off their respective highs and are printing tight bear flags.  The overall market is on unstable footing and I want some levered short exposure.

RVLT – Yes, it’s my largest long holding and currently the bane of my stock existence.  It earned largest ranking when I blew out my YGE and YELP shares this week.  They were my prior biggies.  The stock is trading worse than a bag of dicks at a hot dog eating contest.  There are no buyers and presumably a few large sellers cashing in on the 600% plus move that took place up unto the day I bought the stock.  The business model is stronger than ever, the shift in focus from consumer products to large scale retrofits is brilliant, and the investor population is still very shortsighted on the opportunity in lighting.  I still love this name, and I plan to cost average in through several quarters.

AIXG – My German LED company.  I love LED technology and I see this company as a beneficiary in Europe due to their energy awareness.  The stock has been dead money for months and I continue to hold.  Nothing has changed here, but this consolidation has excellent potential energy.

END – Huge short interest, oil exploration, and a hot chart.

CREE – Same as RVLT and AIXG, I want these names until incandescent and HID bulbs die.  I’ve been in since January, why exit now?

TRLA – I love their app and use it constantly, the chart looks great, Zillow has been a beast, value added to realty pros, and Le Fly is in the name.

CLF – Tight consolidation, looks like it wants to rip and if it doesn’t the risk is really low.  OA went YOLO on it this week too, although it never moved so that may have been a small loss.

FB – Marky Mark and the poke crew are getting it done.  Holding

LO – Blu eCigs and menthol cigarrets won’t actually get banned.  Interest rates need to stop rising, it’s making the coupon less attractive.

F – Still a strong chart and a nice product line.  This is a patriot long still kicking around my port since the 4th of July

IMMR – haptics are way underutilized by porn.  I think the porn industry will drive growth here 😉 Also, a Le Fly favorite.

USO – I should still be large but I took a bunch of scales on the way up.  I almost sold it all.  Look, that would have been really dumb.

O – it too pays a large coupon which is losing allure with bond rates rising.  I traded my favorite reversal pattern really well in here with a large position.  The locked in gains dipped my cost basis way down here.  So I’m basically break even on the idea, waiting to collect some coupon.

That’s my holdings.  I’m interested in a few other names, like SFM and GOGO, but will wait until next week to act (obviously).

Have a great weekend everyone,

Raul

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Perturbed

I cannot say with any certainty if it made sense to eat twenty four dollars’ worth of grilled cheeses, but I can tell you that meal was the only thing that excited me today.  Normally, in this country, I should be excited that a three day weekend approaches.  As a matter of fact, during our last three day weekend, I ran an exciting back test on the /ES that has been profitable.

I expect this weekend’s research to further my quest to dominate the S&P 500.

But I don’t look to the weekend with glee.  Instead I have been plagued by nightmares of global conflict.  As much as I enjoy speculating during the turmoil, my vibe took a negative turn today.  It rolled over, if you will.

Generation X and Y have mostly escaped war.  There have been conflicts. Good people have been sent in to foreign countries to bring the fight to the villains, but no full fledged war has occurred.  And I’m happy to live in boring times.  Perhaps I’m getting older and becoming more aware of global brutality, and perhaps I should just tell my subconscious to eat a donut and STFU.  But I really don’t like this situation…this situation in Syria.

I had a dream a few weeks back that an unknown villain nuked the entire taiga, destroying the atmosphere and ending the world.  That’s the kind of vibe I’m feeling.

I’m also getting bled out every day by RVLT, WTF is going on over there?  This crap still doesn’t look buyable.  It’s almost surreal how poorly this stock is behaving.

The LVN I noted this morning at 1641.75 never came into play today.  Instead it’s been a risk averse tape, but mostly the action has a smack of indecision and chop.

I raised a bit more cash, taking anther scale in AMBA for a win and closing ENPH for a loss.  ENPH is entirely without trend here, IMO.  I was playing for quick strength to trigger a short squeeze.  It never materialized and I was too slow with my exit.  Then I bottom ticked the sale today without even queuing up the chart.  This too was quite perturbing.

My futures workstation completely broke today, froze, and needed a hard restart.  Brutal.  You know…the restart where you hold the power button for like 10 seconds until POOF, and then an eerie silence falls over the room.  Then you count to ten as slowly as possible, giving the machine the official ‘ten seconds to settle’ before turning it back on.  It worked, and my tools are 90 percent operational going into the close.  My volume-at-price delta is still broken.  Either that or every order today has been executed at the bid (I hope not).

My book is a sea of red except for YGE and FB and all I really want is peace.  I don’t foresee much more action on my behalf into the weekend.

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Wild Chop Gives Way to Selling into The Bell

It was another frustrating day of RVLT sucking wind only today it was accompanied by APP.  I’m a huge fan of the APP brand, so their ticker is a permanent fixture on my Always Stalking watch list.  When it fell out of the tight/multi-month consolidation I took it to be the head fake, the shakeout, before the actual move.  Well wouldn’t you know it, I was -10% on the name in a flash reminding me how important entries are on these low priced stocks.  I simply don’t have a ton of conviction here, so I cut my loss and moved on.

You know my thoughts on RVLT.

YGE was interesting today, being one of my largest positions and all.  I want better prices before parting ways with any of my shares.  They’re Chinese and solar, I mean, what’s better?

Yelp had a decent day and some clown ‘angel investor’ put on his big boy pants and bet five stacks Yelp will be out of business by 2015.  Oh, you bad.  He made his bet via FB, BTW.  Have you heard of the stock market, you coward?

Nothing else really materialized in my swing portfolio.

Meanwhile, you hear traders calling days like today a day trader’s dreams or a day trader’s environment and I’m pleased to report #BOSSRAM concurs.  On the session, Bossram Alpha took 12 trades covering three different cycles and went 12-for-12 to earn a staggering 13.75 handles.

Based on a one contract position size Bossram yielded $687.50 before commissions.  Considering the position size can increase by one contract for every $1800 earned, you can see the scalability.  All trades taken must have seen price to go through the entry and exit by a tick in order to validate the walk forward and provide conservative numbers.  I think it’s safe to say BOSSRAM does well in choppy environments.  Aka, this is the perfect fix for a momentum trader stuck with summertime sadness.

I’ve been overly excited for algorithms I’ve built in the past, so believe me, I’m still a skeptic.  But today’s performance was dead on with what I’ve seen occurring in my seven month back test.  ROBUSTO!

I look forward to taking the cycle live alongside my current /ES trading repertoire.

Be on the lookout for odd moves overnight, it seems like that kind of night…especially with the rare moon.

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Plus One on the Day

As quiet as today seemed, I was able to advance my portfolio by over 1 percent today.  Leading the way were my LED players, RVLT, CREE, and AIXG.  This basket of securities currently represents 23 percent of my portfolio and I intend to make it much larger, perhaps even as large as 50 percent of my book.

That’s how much conviction I have in lighting grade LEDs.

I intend to make a very concentrated bet and advance my family to the next level of society, top hats.  If anyone can present one iota of evidence contrary to the eventual 100% adoption rate of LEDs in the United States, please do so now.  And don’t feed me that plasma light bullshit, I’ve tested these things and I’m wholeheartedly unimpressed by both the performance and the economics.

tophat

I’m slowing my swing portfolio down a bit, instead focusing on building into names I believe add value to society, which is why I started buying cigarette marker LO into the bell.  I’m essentially parking money in the Newport Cigarette maker, planning to earn the very handsome coupon while they add value to the smoking community.  How?  The Blu eCigarette.  When LO took over Blu and rolled it out to every convenience station from here to California, they earned the early mover seat in this space.  I like to imagine they have teams of behavioral physiologists and scientists working around the clock to sell more of these disposable vaporizers.  My game plan on LO is to buy weakness, time and time again, and allow the eventual growth from eCigs to buoy the share price enough for the coupon to make me profit.  Fun stuff, I know.  I’m sleeping on some Ford(s) shares the same way.

I have a heterogeneous mixture of other stocks kicking around in the old portfolio, mostly names where I’ve taken the lion share of profits and left a runner on for sport.  Stocks like O, BPZ, ONVO, and IMMR.  I really only see reason to sell BPZ but the others I keep, like collecting baseball cards.

I still have a decent hunk of FB, about 35% of what I consider full size.

I bought more OCZ today.  This is my aggressive pumper.  I’m having a hard time accepting a double top at two bucks.  I’ve questioned this proposition by increasing my size in the name in search of a short term pump.  I’m playing PBF in a similar manner although it has different chart logic.

My other aggressive trade is YGE, which is still huge.

That makes 14 longs, 0 shorts, and 25% cash.  Just writing that out makes me want to sell something and concentrate my eggs…

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BOOK INTO THE BELL

Everyone’s getting their panties in a bind over tomorrow morning’s premarket jobs data, thus I thought it my public service to broadcast my book into the bell.

Enjoy,

Raul

 

Here’s my book, by size, biggest listed first and cascading in size smaller and smaller as the list goes on:

AIXG, FXY, F, CREE, FB, I, END, IMMR, YGE, GTAT, OCZ, BPZ, and O

Cashish, it’s high, about 50%

TOP PICK: I WISH I HAD ZILLOW DAMN!

I like END the best baby

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Book Talk

I’m having an interesting morning as the Chinese say, with much to keep my attention and interest.  I closed out FIVE for a 2% loss after the broad market lost its momentum.

Early on I had eyes on both GTAT and RBCN, suspecting one of the sapphire names to run.  I went with GTAT and the position is up 2 percent so I should be happy right?  Wrong!  RBCN was the choice to make, up as much as 10 percent on the day.

TPX is working off some of the post-earnings selloff and the only news I see is they’re supplying the Chicago Bears with beds during training camp.  Please dispose of said beds in the proper biohazard receptacle afterwards.

FB lead by heartthrob Mark Zuckerberg is gliding along like a boat on the Spanish Riviera, all the while Marc whispering sweet nothings into my ear.

AMBA is going full Jeb Corliss for the time being.  I like it because it lets me know the name has a pulse.  Remember, momentum cuts both ways.

One long in the S&P futures, took a 1.5 handle loss. The trade had an 85 % plan compliance.

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