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Tag Archives: $ES_F

Hot Trading Action in The Stocks

Stocks are strong right out the rip this morning, with the S&P tide pushing all these jet boats (momo stocks) higher.

In the futures, I’ve traded four contracts, all to the long side, earning 1.5 handles, 3 handles, 1.5 handles, and a runner.  UPDATE: Closed the runner, 3.25 handles.

I kicked out SAM after initially thinking I would make it an investment.  I don’t want to be invested in SAM.  I like Pabst if I’m going low end, New Castle if I’m being normal, BUD for sports drink, and anything brewed at the micro capacity from Michigan all the time.  So why own SAM?

I sold LOCK too because it had a chance to be great and it decided going sideways was cool.  What a wimpy stock.

The solar trade is complete madness.  I love it.  These ‘late stage” conditions give a huge edge to the small trader who can ferret in and out of the crazy names.  My wild boy is Scotty.  SCTY is the proverbial stone that kills two birds, giving me a piece of Elon’s sweet ass and solar exposure. With that in mind, I’ve taken two scales, and am down to a runner on SCTY. You guys are crazy so I want to see how far your crazy gets me.

Don’t sleep on JRCC, it’s way out of balance after we learned Friday that they bought a little more time in their debt structure. I want to see the imbalance push higher, obviously.

New longs are YELP, and CRZO and cash is low low low, 25 percent.

 

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Three Days of Overlapping Value

Coming into the week, we have three days of overlapping value to use as bias for direction into the week.  Last week featured a very similar overlap of value and seeing acceptance of price above the big value gave us conviction to the long side all week.

The same weight should be given to the three days of overlapping value this week.

The overnight session has been flat thus far.  The only notable development was the rejection of Friday’s HVN on the upper volume node at 1664.50 which I consider the only line in the sand stopping more upside.

Here’s a markup of the other important S&P levels:

ES_VolumeProfile_05202013

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The Excess Low and What It Means Today

The overnight session has seen the S&P index as much as seven handles higher from yesterday’s close, putting in two rather methodic rotations higher.  The resulting volume profile is wide however, which paints a more neutral picture of the session.  We may need to see more profile development before we’re able to build any context from it.

The key feature of yesterday’s profile is when price “fell out of bed”.  A liquidation took place at 2pm and price tumbled 9 handles lower before recovering off the lows by about 33 percent.  The resulting action left behind an excess low at 1647.50.  Someone, aka they, found the price such a bargain, they snatched them up with aggressive reactive action.  Should we trade back down to this level and the market doesn’t receive the same aggressive reaction from the buyers, we can take it as a sign that something has changed, and position for lower trade.

I’ve highlighted this excess low and other key levels in the volume profile look, enjoy:

ES_VolumeProfile_05172013

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Morning Future’s Report

The morning session is balanced, and somewhat choppy.  The rotations don’t seem to make much progress and I got caught up in the noise with several trades.

I went 5/14 giving me a win rate of 36 percent.  My best trade was long into the 11 am hour catching a drift higher that earned 2.5 handles.  My two worse trade were chop along the VPOC each carving out 1.75 handles on two units.  Net-net I was down on the session.

My best position was shorting into the 10am Philadelphia fed number.  The market was bid up into the number, ran some stops and then reversed lower.  I covered far too soon, taking only 1 handle out of the 7 handle move.

Biggest area for improvement is waiting for a bit more conviction before trading from the middle of the value area to the outside.

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Quiet Overnight and the Interesting Price Level Left Behind

Another quiet overnight session, forming the familiar bell-curve within yesterday’s fat value area.  This tells me there haven’t been any significant developments overnight.

The ten handles swing lower seen during the ES afternoon suggests emotions are building up in this tape, but hardly suggests complacency.  When price knifed lower to the scene of the early breakout, it was met as a huge buying opportunity.  The low volume node left behind at 1648.75-1648.50 is an interesting byproduct of that swift rejection.  Should the bulls not defend this level in the same manner on a retest, I’ll take it as a cue that sentiment has shifted.

Early on, perhaps even premarket, I’ll be looking for a test of the 1648.50 level mentioned above.

ES_VolumeProfile_05162013

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Let Us See The Afternoon

I had a solid session in the $ES_F.  I was working a long trade inside the VPOC.  On my first trade, I earned 1.5 handles on one piece and then scratched the net +2 ticks.  Then I re-entered and earned 1.5 points on my first piece and 5 handles on the second.  Nice little victories to have, all according to plan.

I jostled my portfolio up a bit, selling another 1/3 of my ANGI after the housing stats.  The housing numbers came out in-line/better than expected and ANGI had a nice morning move.  When it didn’t pump alongside the overall market, I took the cue to scale some profits.

I also started buying JRCC.  There’s a lot of good guys in this trade, for various reasons.  I’m in it for the little 5-10 percent, you know that.  That being said, I want to see this trade get moving soon as it hasn’t quite turned the momo corner.  Developing…

Look at Ford, wow, good American breakout.  I’m taking a step back this afternoon and smelling the roses.  I want to see some afternoon action before deciding to buy more stocks or sell down what I have.

http://youtu.be/f5L140YRFpg

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Watching how the Market Digests the Big Move

One of the key elements to yesterday’s trend that should have kept me from fading early on was the opening type.  Yesterday we saw a classic opening drive: the market opened above the value area highs spanning four days and didn’t look back.

Today we’re seeing a more balanced session overnight, with the action taking place within yesterday’s upper volume distribution.  I’ll be keying off the price action inside the upper boundaries of the P-shaped profile.  The single prints below can get slippery, should price trade back down into them, I’m playing for a swift move through them; a crushing blow to the bulls.

But mostly, I’m looking for digestion of yesterday’s move.  Should price consolidate within this upper distribution, we could see individual stocks fare very well.

ES_VolumeProfile_05152013

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Morning Future Trading Report: Losing Day/Winning Battle

Very solid market this morning for the $ES_F.  This is the type of action that comes after a huge consolidation like we saw over the last 4 or 5 sessions.

I took a long off the open that earned 1.5 points on two contracts.

Then I tried fading this mega move, taking 3 handles of heat on two contracts aka I gave it all back and more.

I’m not beating myself up over these losses, although I may go back to the drawing board to build in a caveat for fading moves after a long consolidation.

You can have a losing day according to your plan.  It’s the deviations that cause confusion, loss of confidence, and consistent losers.

The market is speaking clearly today.  It says, “Don’t fade me brah!”

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UPDATED: Thin and Toothy Overnight

UPDATE:  We had some jawboning jerk the overnight market up, we’re now dealing with a double distribution on the 24 hour profile:

NEWMP

 

It’s been a quiet morning session, but certainly of a different character than we’ve seen since entering this large balance zone.

Since the neutral day on the 9th, I’ve been watchful for the next move out of balance.  This morning’s profile suggests we may see it today.

What I’m referring to it the toothy characteristics of the volume.  Recent overnight profiles have been near-perfect bell curves.  This morning not so much, instead the profile lacks a clear point of control.  Price rejected yesterday’s high overnight at 1633.25 and swiftly rotated lower, with a current low right at the major confluence of VPOCs at 1626.50.

As we progress into the morning USA session, I’m looking for the market to rotate higher off of the major VPOC level and result in another quiet open with little gap to trade.  However, if the buyers don’t file in to buoy this index, I suspect we may explore lower.

 

ES_VolumeProfile_05142013

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$ES_F Pregame Volume Analysis

Expectations today are rather simple.  We have a large three-day value development occurring at these highs.  From Wednesday-Friday the market worked a value area with the control level between 1626 and1627.  Three VPOCs are stacked up at these levels.

Overnight we put a high in at 1627 in near-perfect confluence with the above value area.  Where we trade in relation to this level for the remainder of the day could be very telling of the market tenor for the week.

The overnight session started with a gap lower and thus far has been unable to recapture.  The action resulted in three rotations and a balanced session occurring almost entirely within Friday’s value area.  This tells we we’re still in balance, for the most part.  If the market continues to build acceptance below the value area, we could expect the next exploration of price to be lower, in search of buyers.

ES_VolumeProfile_05132013

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