I started buying 3D tech this morning with a 1/3 entry. This equates to roughly 3.5% of my risk portfolio. My goal is to continue having price come against me so I can build to at least 2/3 in size. If however we turn higher here, I will be obligated to take my first target and wait for a new opportunity to enter.
This trade is me getting back to my swing trading roots in my favorite industry, technology. If I side with any political party it is the futurists. I am intrigued by the people behind companies who are technology ambassadors to the world. They are disruptive and have more potential then established cash cows.
3D is almost 50% off the high water mark we printed late last year. This is an overreaction and a welcomed one by me, because I have been left out from owning this company for a very long time.
Without further adieu, here is my wish list plan for accumulating 3D technology. Hopefully it craters after earnings, which I will be holding through:Comments »
When you build a launch pad, delicately attending to every detail, and then it doesn’t make you any moneys – you want to take a bulldozer and smash it to bits.
Like when your do-it-yourself plumbing job goes surprisingly well until the end when you over torque a pipe and break everything. Your inner monkey emerges and chucking the channel locks through the mirror seems the only logical reaction.
It’s better to tidy up your work, retool everything, and have another go at it.
GOOG and MSFT both disappointed after hours and are down. QQQ and SPY are both pressing up against your favorite overbought indicator, and leaders are lagged all day.
We may see a down day or two…
The Philli Fed pumped up the market with vigor, only for us to spend the remainder of the day giving it back. I suppose I state all of this because I’m near fully vested and only holding FXY as a pseudo-hedge.
My swing portfolio is red on the day, championed by TPX getting poleaxed. Everything else did nothing fun.
I get a long on in the futures at a decent bargain and then the momentum vanishes and I sit around, not eating, waiting for like $100 more in profit. Then I finally settle for my pittance and go eat a taco.
I’m still trading within the confines of my plan and I’m mildly profitable 4 out of 4 days as a result. Somebody has to hold me accountable and that somebody is me. Hell, I’m used to talking to myself what with the twitter and the blog, so self-enforced discipline feels normal.
I bulked up on ENPH and closed out DDD and Z. I’m convinced the best way to play DDD is to buy some every quarter and never sell, but that doesn’t fit my fringe lifestyle.Comments »
My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below. Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.
Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.
I’m brooding so hard right now. But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!? Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it. It’s mine, I spend it.”
Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.
The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action. It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context. So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts. Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.
I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.
Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more. They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late. When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything. I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it. A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD. The next day it makes an even BIGGER move. Pair that with the following bullet points:
“On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.”
2.) It showed up on three of my favorite PPT screens too, including receiving an upgrade to BUY.
I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:
I took my first scale in O. You have to get paid when the market pays you. Now the move can either continue progressing or digest for a bit and I’m chill.
I took my first scale on TPX. It’s still my largest position and top pick. Next target is $50.
I bought PRLB, INVN, and BPZ like a cheetah chasing a gazelle.
I took cash down to 12 percent, and my positions, listed largest to smallest are as follows (top picks bolded):
TPX, FB, AIXG, INVN, DDD, F, Z, IMMR, CREE, PRLB, SD, BPZ, O, ENPH, YGE
I want some EXK too, call it position overload. I did this last time we peaked out…FYI but I won’t be fooled twice.
EARNING’S SEASON STARTS TOMMOROW MORNING-PREPARE FOR WARComments »
I was having a modestly red day in the futures, but I stuck around and traded through the Ben, and now I’m happy to go home very green!
I bought two dips, sold two rips…Ben is a really good guy.
There was so much selling pressure today, especially after the FOMC pop was faded, that I knew any upward momentum could get these shorts running for their dear, stupid, lives. And Ben delivered the crack rock. As a matter of fact, he’s not even satisfied with the 6.5% unemployment threshold initially rolled out during the taper talks. He’s convinced we’ll need to keep on easing well beyond that, blessing the market with capital gains until everyone is back to work.
Obviously this news is very bullish for TPX because, as unemployment drops, procreation must increase. The safest way to procreate is within the confines of your bed. So get a nice one, yes?
Anyone want to take bets on where we open tomorrow?
It’s a long way until 9:30am…
I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:
I dumped AAPL for a scratch after riding the name through a trough. I can’t get excited about this name because it’s literally falling behind the power curve. That’s dangerous in any business. My assistant mocks my ghetto 4s about once a week and then changes the channels with her Galaxy. It has the infrared beam like your teevee remote. Plus I wanted to sell it at yesterday’s low, so why not sell it today, near the highs? It can go to $1000 and I still won’t regret this decision.
I scaled off some Z as it pokes around near the all-time high.
I cut my ANGI long because I don’t have patience for it when YELP is crushing, Z is crushing, and ZNGA is flirting with me. What was once a 6% gain was booked for a 5% loss.
All of this left me feeling cash heavy aka homo erotic. So I scuttled into DDD and SD. DDD is ¾ size and SD is ½ size.
I closed the day 80 percent long with TPX of course being my largest position because my top pick continues to be TPX, got it?Comments »
Apropos that I would get all excited about the LED industry last night and not over the weekend putting me one day behind the move. The kicker of it all was stalking GTAT yesterday but not pulling the trigger. I wanted to see a capitulation move lower. This is an example of an opportunity where getting half my position on would have worked. And given the gaptastic nature of AIXG, I don’t want to chase it higher. I’m shaking my fist at the entire industry. At least I have my CREE.
All last night I thought about how much I wished I had bought BIDU and SCTY into the bell. They both looked great on a closing basis. So I came to market and bought them both today. Now I don’t really want SCTY. I can be so fickle at these choppy junctures. No less than three times I’ve considered rolling all the SCTY funds into BIDU.
I’m getting really excited about this TPX trade, it’s working out well. Look at that weekly chart. Another strong weekly candle has to have you seriously considering this name for an intermediate term swing long. Yes, I’m talking my book.
I cut RENN and HSOL, but the rest of my China basket is in place, lined up in marching formation, ready for ramming speed. Actually HSOL looks ready for ramming speed too.
At one point I was 92 percent long. I had to adjust that down a bit. I cut ODP, RENN, HSOL, and DDD. All-in-all, I have too many longs if you ask me. I’m bombarded with great setups and my ADD has gotten the best of me. None of these trades looks bad at this point; they just don’t look as good as my other longs.
Now I’m sitting 75 percent long, awaiting The Fed. I’m very slightly red on the day, and my broker loves me.Comments »
I’m feeling a little in the zone today so you must pardon my absence. I’ve been crushing this S&P tape since 11pm last night. Shorting, longing, more longing, and now I’m finally flat and in awe.
I made good monies today.
As I turn a more focused eye to these stocks the first thing striking me as odd is the lack of tenacious demand for solars. It’s like the god damned secondary over at FSLR put a wet blanket on the whole industry. Everyone’s still tending to their sunburns with coconut and aloe. But I must let you know, Raul never burns, I only get darker. And when I get really dark, things get weird. By that I mean YGE needs to get moving NOW!
HMIN will cut dicks once it finally crushes this stupid 30 level.
DDD is still blowing minds around the world, building shit out of polymers and what have you. Believe it or not, this company is still special even if Japan unwinds their monetary policy.
China isn’t getting awesome yet. They will be. Never sleep on the Chinese.
TPX is behaving excellent. I think you have to keep the weekly chart in mind if we see follow through tomorrow. That would carry some major implications. Watch me crush this trade.
YY is going red to green but will always have a red soul and desire to kill shorts.
IMMR yes they have the haptics.
I bought more ODP because something about office supply stores gets me excited.Comments »
I’ve come to live by one saying in today’s markets and it’s, “get it while it’s here, boy.” Because in complete honesty, any spectacular hype surrounding pockets of momentum won’t feel the same next year, week, or even hour. When a stock is hot, it’s hot. Higher highs, higher lows, and cocaine dances. When it’s not, it’s National Bank of Greece.
We are undergoing a slight bounce back after a brutal five percent correction. Did you blink? You may have missed it. As investors peer out of their bunkers, weary from the bombs dropped on their person, they see a strange sight. It’s Sir Raul, dressed in ceremonial red marching regalia, tap dancing through a mine field. The sight is so unexpected, so beautiful, they don’t even reach for their gun, they simply watch.
Just as I clear the field and hunker down into a foxhole with many women and Chairman Mao! You come to your senses attempt to clear the field. You saw the path I took, you see how effortless it was. You go for it. Only at that very moment a B-52 bomber blankets the entire field with liquid hot napalm. You’re dead. Keep that in mind.
I’m nearly filled to the gullet with high spec, high momentum names. Names like YGE, FSLR, DDD, YY, LEDS, and more. I’ll either party all week long with The Chairman, or suffer the very possible drone strike after the NSA hones in on my cell phone whist I order pizza.
It appears the market has gone completely stagnant as I write. Regardless, PRESS THE BOOT!
The only stocks sold were those that will not aggressively appreciate in value. I cut AAPL and TSLA.Comments »
It has been a choppy morning in the futures. Choppy enough, in fact, to let me squeeze a little bit of profit out, mostly shorting. What’s happening is I get my first scale and then have to scratch my second piece. The market harmonics are hunting out that second piece and making me re-enter with higher risk of selling into the hole.
Anyhow, I’m done dabbling in the futures game unless, as always, a major development occurs.
18 trades, 5 losers and a small profit.
I’ve been stopped out on DDD, the net of my gain last week and today’s loss was a small loss.
I added back some shares of NBG this morning, near the HOD. Developing…
Everything else is getting decimated. The momentum rug is being pulled. If the carpet is indeed magic, it needs to fly me out of this collapsing cave, and fast.
For now, I’m electing to eat something requiring two hands.Comments »
Do you like the transient manner in which I avoided today’s AWK dump off? After over two years of being invested in the name, benefitting both from the large coupon AND the capital appreciation, I simply cut it loose. This type of thing happens all the time over here.
Is it luck?
I’ve always considered myself lucky. I walked away from a pretty gnarly Cessna crash a few years back.
But it’s not luck. It is marrying the knowledge that matters and hanging out with it every night. It’s foraging through The PPT, aimlessly, for hours on end. Reading everyone’s commentary here sure helps. Pay attention.
Moving on to this landslide close, there’s your sell in MAY! That was 30 handles from the high of the day. I got stopped out of my NANO trade amidst the selloff, but my impunity in ES_F continued. I just had to try the mean revision, and actually made a point and a half going LONG mid death spiral.
I’m telling you, I should buy some lottery tickets for real today, I have the Midas touch.
After seeing the selling pick up tenacity I covered and bought some TZA. Who am I not to join gentleman RaginCajun on TZA? On this birthday!?! I had to. Plus it’s like my Ambien for the weekend. Quickly: Raul trusts no pharmaceuticals, hence his distrust for resident drug dealer @halfbloodpope. I’m really not sure why I’m talking in the third person, via my pen name.
Some of my stocks held up well considering the carnage. New long ACHN didn’t chit the bed, which is sometimes expected of newborns. DDD was ugly, but damn, I’ve seen worse. I’ll probably see worse come Monday.
I have the China PMI to look forward to this weekend with HMIN and DANG. And I have SNE. I even have a dash of NBG. I like taking my chips to another country and gambling elsewhere while the USA gets sold in May.
My cash rose to 30 percent.
It seems like June is going to whip about something awesome. I hope so. Enjoy your weekend, eat a good meal, make love to your wife, for we battle come Monday.Comments »