You know I am. Today’s weakness is a good opportunity to look at your favorite names, the real winners, the ones that got away from you, the kippers, the big salamis, and draw out some risk profiles.
So far I’ve bought GS and RVLT.
I’m considering adding to my existing CREE repertoire, I will do so, slowly.
Remember AWK? A blast form the past…I have my eyes on some for my slow money.
I sold off my FXY long, a pseudo hedge of sorts. All the profits I had in the name could literally vanish with five or six words from SHINTZO ABE. No thank you, I’ll talk my payday and move on.
I could be seen in the globex market shorting the $ES_F early on, it went well.
RAUL IS ALL OVER THE FINANCIAL WEBS, A FAST MOVING GHOST OF SORTS.
Cash levels have been reduced to a more reasonable 30 percent, which I’m eager to deploy into further weakness.
Tue Aug 6, 2013 5:11pm ESTComments Off on Majestic Solar Panels
Years of desensitization from a 90’s childhood playing Grand Theft Auto and Doom, watching ultra-violent movies like American History X, and witnessing the opening of the proverbial floodgates via the World Wide Web has made it very difficult to get me excited. Perhaps that is why I simply cannot get excited about solar technology. Or, just maybe, it’s because it lacks POWER.
The Italians get me excited with the eCat, but nobody has proven anything yet.
You may be asking yourself, “Why then, Raul, do we see you taking positions in solar stocks so mucho?” I could cite the momentum as a reason or I could cite our current administration, but the real answer is I just don’t know. It’s such boring technology. Remember, I live in one of the least sunny places on the planet, so I’m sure that weighs in on my bias.
FSLR whiffed on earnings, the highlight of their conference call is their ‘pipeline’ of deals, which we’re to believe they’ll close on, and a new partnership with General Electric. Cool brah, I have a pipeline of deals too, they just keep ignoring my emails (spam).
Solar just doesn’t spin the turbines yet, which brings us back to my primary 2013 thesis, LED lights. A business can invest in itself TODAY, replace all of their lighting TODAY, and reduce their electric usage by over 20 percent. The payback period on the investment is quick, one to three years. Large shop spaces with high intensity discharge lighting can save even MORE. THIS TECHNOLOGY, my friends, is a step in the right direction. AND IT MAKES SENSE TO BUSINESSES, because they’re cash flows aren’t jeopardized for ten, fifteen years. Silly solar salesmen sitting on their leads.
YGE is Chinese, so they have that going for them. And by that I mean souped up books and a Chairman that will handle any insolent workers.
Aside from being on the wrong end of the FSLR call, I traded spooz really well. I pulled out my weekly nut today, fading the down moves early on, then fading the up moves in the afternoon. It was pretty great, 5 planned trades, 0 unplanned.
I bought KWK thinking it could squeeze. It didn’t, yet. I still think it’s priced for certain death and with earnings out of the way and our Mideast Embassies closed, perhaps the energy complex could be in for a bit of summer time madness.
I eyeballed OCZ but missed adding, I’m still long. Something is about to go down in this name, I can feel it in my bones.
To think, I almost sold CREE today. I can’t belive that thought crosses my mind, ever. It’s a stupid thought. Stupid brain, always getting in my way.
Every time I circle back on the prospects of LED technology I’m blown to bits by the size of this market and it’s supple virginity. There are piles of money sitting all across the country, waiting to be gathered by the right group of prospectors.
I really don’t even like telling you about it too much, because I want it all for myself.
RVLT was on sale this week, I don’t doubt it will go on sale again. And you should buy it, with great pomp and vigor. When you go out tasting cocktails with your boyfriends you should brag about your RVLT shares. When you’re playing grab ass in the parking lot, you should open your trunk and pass out the literature you’ve prepared discussing the future of the LED industry.
Get them in on it, be their leader you big homo.
Obviously CREE is a proof of concept, trading near all-time highs. Of course they’re stealing the headlines nailing big time contracts with universities and municipalities. But there’s so many other business out there, low hanging fruit, which will be snatched up at a rapid rate by none other than RVLT.
I think these jackasses are finally getting that, instead of trying to be the dude with the biggest patent, they need to focus on driving retro fits, driving the ball down the field if you will.
We can get cute and trade these stocks with our ADD, or we can grab our nuts and slap a flag on top of the mountain, MIEN!
You know I’m in bed with the German retards at AIXG. You know I’m in bed with CREE. What you don’t know is RVLT is my sexy mistress, wearing the most revealing dresses and the latest styling’s from Tom Ford.
Everyone’s still shortsighted on the LED industry, trust.
Everyone’s getting their panties in a bind over tomorrow morning’s premarket jobs data, thus I thought it my public service to broadcast my book into the bell.
Enjoy,
Raul
Here’s my book, by size, biggest listed first and cascading in size smaller and smaller as the list goes on:
AIXG, FXY, F, CREE, FB, I, END, IMMR, YGE, GTAT, OCZ, BPZ, and O
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that solar companies offer the same promise as CREE: a reduced dependency on the electrical grid. But pull out a 2013 chart of CREE and compare it to your favorite solar issuance. Actually no, I’ll do it for you.
Behold! Greatness, smooth and non-porous…vs…bleep,blop,bloop:
Better yet, let’s get visualized via a performance chart, shall we?
NOTICE ANYTHING? I do, CREE besting the competition and doing so in a smooth, methodical manner. But wait, who is that little shining star, outperforming on the year ever so boldly?
Indeed it is ENPH. And I’m fully over sized into ENPH, sitting though a melt down of sorts. If I had it my way, I’d be buying more I bought more here because ENPH is a winner this year, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. I implore PPT subscribers to dial this ticker into your machines and observe the statistics.
It’s hot. All other solar exposure is a crappy crap shoot, trust. Look at March and April weakness across the board on the performance chart, who didn’t care? CREE and ENPH.
The old me would be stalking EXK today like I did Miley Cyrus last time she was in town, but I’m comporting myself with a bit more grace and self-respect today…like Pepe Le Pew. I learned not to chase miners, EXK in particular, through a long history of daggered hairpin reversals. The name is volatile, I felt early on that I missed the action, therefore I did. I’ll have to tickle my fancies with something else today.
I’ve quite enjoyed being kicked in the scrotum this morning by my newly minted long OCZ. They came out with some preliminary earnings data rather out of the blue, and lo and behold they’re still combating supply issues. “SUPPLIES!” …no surprise. There are worse problems for a company to have, like no sales. Anyway, the stock market is the final arbiter. If the name doesn’t shape up into the bell I may axe it (no piker body spray puke).
I sold a bit more O which is fantastic, this trade played out LOCKSTEP, and now I have my final 1/3 which the market must work very hard to take from my person, as my cost basis (net of booked profits) is now $38.50 aka well below swing lows. I hope we take out the recent swing low, run some stops, and then I’ll add some back on. This is going to be my new AWK, collecting me a coupon while I skip to my lou though the market minefield.
My solar trifecta has me more pleasured than Lil Wayne ‘turked up’ on opiates at a stripper convention. Take your pick: YGE, FSLR, and ENPH the sector is leading higher just as prophesied by the immortal Le Fly and other iBC cast members. Use the green juice to power some CREE bulbs and you’re on the right track, guy.
DDD and PRLB did this morning what I like to call the bear pinch: drive lower, pullback for shorts to enter, make a new low, barely, than quickly rip higher, leaving asshole bears stuck in their underwater positions. Have a great afternoon you harry bastards, it’s hot out there.
RVLT finally lifted off and it has done so without me. I’m instead nearly balls deep in German LED play AIXG, down 1 percent. All dogs have their day, RVLT is a decent company, but they’re no CREE or AIXG fundamentally. RVLT is an instrument for degenerates to trade.
I’m happy to have paired my IMMR with some INVN because to me, they’re the same thing: new tech, chips. INVN appears to be more en vogue.
F won’t let good Americans in unless their 401-k is set to ‘auto-allocate’.
FB still wants to win, while you’re looking elsewhere.
I’ll never own enough Z, but I own it nonetheless.
TPX is still my largest. You will all feel its gentle wrath.
Who thinks BPZ has another squeeze in it? (Raises hand)
That’s my book in a nutshell. I’m considering an FXY long as protection. Call it Kong hedging. iBC is becoming a formidable beast.
My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below. Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.
Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.
I’m brooding so hard right now. But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!? Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it. It’s mine, I spend it.”
Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.
The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action. It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context. So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts. Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.
I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.
Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more. They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late. When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything. I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it. A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD. The next day it makes an even BIGGER move. Pair that with the following bullet points:
“On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.”
2.) It showed up on three of my favorite PPT screens too, including receiving an upgrade to BUY.
I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:
I took my first scale in O. You have to get paid when the market pays you. Now the move can either continue progressing or digest for a bit and I’m chill.
I took my first scale on TPX. It’s still my largest position and top pick. Next target is $50.
I bought PRLB, INVN, and BPZ like a cheetah chasing a gazelle.
I took cash down to 12 percent, and my positions, listed largest to smallest are as follows (top picks bolded):
The ETF SPY is on track to print another tight and gapped candle to add to the ADR collection we’ve assembled since the big liquidation snap. This is by far, one of the strangest and most unhealthy appreciations I’ve ever seen.
Nonetheless it is an appreciation, so longs are a-workin’
With the muted action taking place in the futures, making for a challenging day trading environment, I’ve been a spectator for most of the day. None of my charts look broken yet none of my stocks are reaching their targeted destinations. The exception I have is AAPL, which could be taking a turn for the worse. It’s certainly my lowest conviction play and every hour I think about selling it.
Two of my larger positions, TPX and GS are not doing much. I don’t intend to sell any TPX until $50.
My ANGI and Z trades seem to complement each other well. When one is feeling down, the other is up. Z is larger than ANGI, but not by much. You would think ANGI was kidnapping babies given the internet sentiment. I’ve never seen such disdain for a company, save for YELP.
People act like businesses owners have never had to grease a few palms to get the gears turning. What the fuck? You start a business.
ENPH is a daily epiphany since snaring the bears in that lovely trap. This is one of those exciting new companies where I never want to sell shares, but I must. My plan is to buy and sell but always keep a core, thus whittling my cost basis down into the threes.
FB looks kind of hot, finally.
My LED stocks are getting hammered today. Let’s face it, they’re up huge YTD, they may not participate in every rally going forward. I want more CREE, but will exercise stoic patience with the stretched name.
AIXG on the other hand needs to grab its schnitzel and man up ASAP.
F is extended, but I continue to view demand for this equity as pent up.
I’m currently at 13 longs. I prefer a max 12. But I need to buy something else unless I’m compelled to sell because something about 13 longs rubs me wrong.
Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it? Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4th of July, when I tread lightly.” And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!” This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…
…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.
I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection. Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.” You shouldn’t. I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.” Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.
We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away. SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked. We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions. You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship. That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.
It’s a totally new world we live in. Get out your space helmets friends!
So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes. Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.
I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.
Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:
TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE
I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names. I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.
O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell. The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.
AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half. Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.
F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.
ANGI is still “meh”
CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.
GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.
Today’s follow through atop yesterday’s move atop last week’s move HIGHER is fueled by pure patriotism. As I type, the index futures are “giving it up” but I don’t care. You may in fact be hard up to find a bull who cares, because “the good stocks” are higher; stocks like Fords (sic), Cree, and Apple.
The long wick on XLF and all the jitters it produced have to this point been swept aside, and the financials are behaving rather constructive.
REITS are defying bearish setups, TLT is up, and so is our dollar. Keep in mind, our jungle informant, deep in the Forex bush, is expecting an ambush on the dollar soon. Always keep an open ear to Kong.
Pincus over at ZNGA decided he wants his net worth to appreciate, so he replaced himself. In perhaps the best decision of his life, he hijacked Microsoft’s head of Xbox, brilliant. I’m constructive on ZNGA henceforth, and will patiently tan my body and plan my entry. I will likely pepper myself in in 1/2s, 1/3s, or ¼’s due to the nature of ZNGA shares.
My only actions thus far have been tossing fish in the futures, making lunch monies, and scaling off some AAPL shares as we rocketed into the 33ema @ Jerry Garcia aka $420.
I still want SHLD, and I thought your bastards may have beat me to it, but here it comes, right to mama.
ANGI needs to go soon or it’s out, I want to keep my holdings to 12 and this one is, how do you say? Stalling.
As we enter afternoon trading, the question is, do the bears really want to be short into the kickass fourth of July? Cover your shares, or face a barrage of whirly birds, mortars, and wolf packs.
Bonus: What’s your favorite firework? Let me know in the comments below. I’m going shopping.
