Mon Sep 9, 2013 12:13pm ESTComments Off on $CREE Retrofits NASA Headquarters
You will see more of these projects over the next twelve months as smart businesses evaluate their energy consumption and the investments that can reduce their expenses:
DURHAM, N.C.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) headquarters, a leased facility in Washington, D.C., has been outfitted with energy-saving CR Series LED Troffers by Cree, Inc. (CREE). The high-performance LED installation is part of a renovation to maximize energy savings of the 600,000 square-foot building. More than 1,300 Cree CR22™ architectural LED troffers have been installed, and Piedmont Office Realty Trust, owners of the NASA headquarters building, expects the new fixtures to deliver energy savings of 52 percent over the previously installed T8 fluorescent fixtures. An additional 5,200 Cree®CR22 troffers are planned to complete the lighting upgrade.
“We originally considered replacing the existing T8 fluorescent tubes with T5 fluorescents, but after testing Cree’s…(continue reading)
Shares of CREE are up over three percent on the news while smaller player RVLT is up over twenty percent. FD: I am long both names.
Retrofits is the name of the game. Can RVLT harvest all the low hanging fruit accross the United States? Indeud, they can and will.
Into the weekend I would like to very briefly run down my portfolio holdings and the reasoning behind each. This information is coming off the rip after a long week. Thus any thing with a flimsy justification may need to go.
Here we go, from largest to smallest holding:
Cash – I have 20 percent of my book sitting cash. I’m eager to deploy it on the long side
SKF – I’m using a three year volume profile chart to view BRK/B, WFC, GS, C, etc. and I see a great volume pocket below prices. Plus they’ve broken down off their respective highs and are printing tight bear flags. The overall market is on unstable footing and I want some levered short exposure.
RVLT – Yes, it’s my largest long holding and currently the bane of my stock existence. It earned largest ranking when I blew out my YGE and YELP shares this week. They were my prior biggies. The stock is trading worse than a bag of dicks at a hot dog eating contest. There are no buyers and presumably a few large sellers cashing in on the 600% plus move that took place up unto the day I bought the stock. The business model is stronger than ever, the shift in focus from consumer products to large scale retrofits is brilliant, and the investor population is still very shortsighted on the opportunity in lighting. I still love this name, and I plan to cost average in through several quarters.
AIXG – My German LED company. I love LED technology and I see this company as a beneficiary in Europe due to their energy awareness. The stock has been dead money for months and I continue to hold. Nothing has changed here, but this consolidation has excellent potential energy.
END – Huge short interest, oil exploration, and a hot chart.
CREE – Same as RVLT and AIXG, I want these names until incandescent and HID bulbs die. I’ve been in since January, why exit now?
TRLA – I love their app and use it constantly, the chart looks great, Zillow has been a beast, value added to realty pros, and Le Fly is in the name.
CLF – Tight consolidation, looks like it wants to rip and if it doesn’t the risk is really low. OA went YOLO on it this week too, although it never moved so that may have been a small loss.
FB – Marky Mark and the poke crew are getting it done. Holding
LO – Blu eCigs and menthol cigarrets won’t actually get banned. Interest rates need to stop rising, it’s making the coupon less attractive.
F – Still a strong chart and a nice product line. This is a patriot long still kicking around my port since the 4th of July
IMMR – haptics are way underutilized by porn. I think the porn industry will drive growth here 😉 Also, a Le Fly favorite.
USO – I should still be large but I took a bunch of scales on the way up. I almost sold it all. Look, that would have been really dumb.
O – it too pays a large coupon which is losing allure with bond rates rising. I traded my favorite reversal pattern really well in here with a large position. The locked in gains dipped my cost basis way down here. So I’m basically break even on the idea, waiting to collect some coupon.
That’s my holdings. I’m interested in a few other names, like SFM and GOGO, but will wait until next week to act (obviously).
Thu Sep 5, 2013 4:38pm ESTComments Off on A Complete Rundown of Today
I had a flat tire when I woke.
The markets took a pause for the most part today and although a calm, balanced day should be high on your expectations following a trend day today was borderline absurd. The first hour of trade is referred to as the initial balance. The probability of taking out neither the high nor the low during a day session is less than five percent over the last five years of data.
Today we witnessed a tape so benign it was special. I took a long at 10:30 AM, missed my profitable exit around 3pm, and scratched the trade break even at 3:10pm. You wouldn’t believe the frustration that trade produced. I mean, I look at a stock trade like RVLT, slowly bleeding the lifeblood from my person, like a particularly pestering mosquito. Eventually winter comes and it freezes and dies. But each /ES position carries a marginal value over $30,000…which is why I like my gratification instant. My algo, Elroi was dormant today. I expected as much since Elroi thrives in high velocity conditions. Bossram put me on the right side of the opening bell and I extracted 1.5 handles.
I beat my head against the urinal wall then ate several hummus treats.
I had quite the laugh when I saw my boss for the first time today and, I kid you not, he was wearing a full Canadian tuxedo. It was so majestic. The only wardrobe piece missing was a mystical wolf tee shirt. He also wasn’t rocking the official Canadian belt buckle. Needless to say, it was a clear omen from the stock gods and I sold the majority of my BBRY long. I’ve kept a 1/3 runner in case Wayne Gretzky makes a surprise move onto the board of directors.
The wires are reporting AMBA in fact beat expectations, as was written in these halls for months by our fearless leader, Senor Tropicana. As you know, I exited the position yesterday, but I’m still bullish on the name. The GoPro is as cool as RedBull these days.
I slapped on a pretty sizable SKF position into the bell. It seems in slight haste in hindsight, but I had just untethered myself from the /ES and found the action excessively befuddling. Therefore I thought it prudent first to sell one of my longs. But I looked at all of them, the little rug rats, and I couldn’t part ways with any. So I tossed on the SKF hedge.
I sold a little bit of YGE but I’m keeping a small piece just in case it keeps going.
I took nearly a full size position in CLF early on, it looks hot.
Taking yourself out of the proverbial shark tank that is the stock market for a few days leads to some interesting observations. Once outside the tank, you’re better able to observe the water you’ve been swimming around in. It’s a higher sense of self understanding, if you will.
After buying AMBA Tuesday morning, I’ve been inactive. This is in part because the purchase took my cash down under six percent. What little cash I have left must be used to average into CREE and RVLT should the opportunities arise.
Speaking of RVLT, I’m now minus thirty percent on my basis. Investing, it seems, is a tricky endeavor. On one hand, I know they have to potential to make hundreds of millions of dollars retrofitting businesses with LEDS. I also love the vertical model they’ve built with their recent acquisitions. On the other hand, I’m in an ugly chart in a company that was up over 600 percent in one year’s time. Yeah…
But I’m keeping my investor hat on and entrenching into the LED industry. CREE, AIXG, and RVLT are multi quarter holdings.
Just before heading out last week, I increased my oil exposure. Nice timing, yes? I still have positions in END, MHR, and USO. Until the Libyans find out they didn’t in fact kill Doc Brown because Mike Fox used the time machine to warn him to wear a vest, I’m sticking with these positions. I may trim a bit of exposure into further strength.
I passed through no less than four po-dung towns on my travels, and in every case I depended on YELP to find my palatable food with a reasonable atmosphere. I did the same in Traverse City, a much finer and top hatted community. Why not use Google? Because the YELP interface is BETTER, you jack asses.
ENPH and YGE are both lit sticks of dynamite. I intend to stick said dynamite in the tail pipes of the shortmobile.
LO will succeed in addicting teenagers to Blu Eciggarets and I will collect a lovely coupon, much higher than any government or corporate paper, at little or no risk to my person. Same goes for O, except for the teenager part.
IMMR, F, and FB round out my book of long positions.
I’ll be back this evening with an update on Bossram Alpha and El Roi, my drone strike robots.
I trade my worst when I feel chaotic. I feel chaotic when I’m taking unplanned trades because I’m not trading with any structure. I long ago accepted and embraced that much like an ocean, I cannot impose my will upon the market. The market is the final arbiter.
There have been situations where unexpected news resulted in my losing money, like OCZ. In that situation I felt an anxiety perhaps, more like a tension in my shoulders, and when I cut the loss I immediately felt a sense of relief. Relief is a sensation, and sensations are one of the cornerstones of habits and habit formation.
Perhaps cutting CREE right here at this juncture would provide the same sensation of relief, but in this situation that would be a detriment to my long term goals. Goals I’ve mapped and planned for prior to embracing this position.
Commenter AKwitdemBeamz commended my riding through a bludgeoning in CREE these last two days and likened me to Slim Pickens riding the nuke. For those unfamiliar, he is referencing the most iconic scene from one of the most entertaining movies of all time, Dr. Strangelove. As flattering as it is to be associated with such a feat of courageous greatness, my first thought was AKwitdemBeamz thinks I’m trading this position like a cowboy.
Shooting from the hip, if you will…
Everyone loves the big shootout scene in a western. It’s usually the climax of a story and our hero cowboy, seemly outnumbered and certainly outgunned singlehandedly (or perhaps with the help of his faithful steed) dismantles the villains, restores order, and rides off into the sunset. All this, mind you, happened against all odds. That’s why we love it. It’s seeing the low probability happen: the diving catch in the outfield, Jeb Corliss Grind The Crack, or the 65 yard field goal in overtime. As breathtaking and impressive as it can be to watch these cowboys, you’re watching someone defy the laws of large numbers and probabilities.
I’m not a cowboy. What I’m doing, right here right now with CREE is planned—god damned brooded upon while mopping floors. Because when I have a plan, I don’t feel the chaos, and when I don’t feel chaos I trade my best.
I’m going to share my plan with you because I want this to go down as a nonevent, merely another blip in the trading timeline. BEHOLD: The plan. If it seems too simple then perhaps you’re too dense. This is a weekly chart, this is an investment, but it’s always amorphous. If conditions arise that suggest a retooling of the plan, such decisions will be made. Typically the plan is reassessed when one of the following levels is traded:
Now this is what I call selling! Sometimes you trap too many bears in a room and they collaborate and unleash their fury on you. They attack fast and with downward swipes at your face and genitalia. I spent the morning with a brave crowd of traders, beating them back where we could, but there forces proved too great for the most part, succeeding at pressing us into our fox holes.
Then I threw in the towel and started shorting. When you can’t beat them my friend, it is best to join them even if only for a while.
My portfolio is getting tossed around like a rag doll and I really just want to survive until the weekend so I can gather my thoughts. NOTE: When your core goal is survival, you’re no longer in a position to cease opportunities; you’re out of the race so cool your jets.
CREE is getting decimated and every rally in the name has been on opportunity to sell more, intraday. Silver is appreciating non-stop and JakeGint is back on the scene (awesome, btw). I don’t even know what Barack said but it sure didn’t help anything.
Everyone gets raging pissed at algorithms when the market liquidates, but do any of these people have pet robots? I do and it made money today, TAKING LONGS.
So damn, get educated, not all robots are out to kill you.
I’m going to talk to some birds before perhaps making a decision or two into the bell.
That’s literally how it looks if only to see the chop a bit more pronounced. MY WHEELS are spinning, you see?
LED stocks as a whole are retracing their 2013 gains after the tepid Q1 forecast from CREE. To call the move in CREE a retracement however, may be an understatement. This is panic and margin calls rolled into a giant blunt and smoked, like a clown, by yours truly.
Of course I bought some more CREE today, adding to my [still] green core. I bought some into the closing bell for $58.85 #timestamp. Even if only for a trade, I can’t stand by idle and watch my ‘ace boon coon’ CREE get bludgeoned by panicking idiots. Oh and believe me, I have more bullets to fire at these bitches while they’re concentrated in this back ally trough.
I’m telling you now, send CREE lower, I want it lower.
Send RVLT down too, I’m patient.
I have zero edge trading earnings let’s make that clear as crystal, which it already should be. I’m building investments here…they’ll make fine x-mas presents.
MOVING ON, AGAIN
I cut some small names off my books because the /ES was trading in a downdraft. I cut PBF, KWK, and ONVO. I made a killing in ONVO, BTW. The other two, not so much…
Speaking of the /ES: There’s simply no way for me to broadcast my strategy out to the world. Back testing and optimizing has created a medium frequency beast that even I can be overwhelmed by. I took ten trades in the /ES today, 7 were winners and I made 160 bucks trading a 1 lot. When this system is making 160-250 bucks per contract 4-5 days/week, which it will, it can be scaled to as many contracts are needed to sustain my lifestyle. Cool, yes? Then I can abandon this corporate hole and go work for Cree or something.
I’m down a percent and a half today. My cash is nearly 40 percent partially because of a series of decockings and partially due to the aforementioned sales. Why the silver trade is back on, I have no idea. When I return to winship lane I will be wearing an undersized tunic so you can admire my cajonies.
I want you to take that thought and hold it close this evening.
Cree shares are in the toilet after reporting soft guidance after the bell. I can only see this as a buying opportunity. If it presses my RVLT shares lower, I’ll be looking to buy more of their shares too. Listen to me very carefully: LEDs are coming in a big way. There are hundreds of millions of light bulbs that will be updated to LED technology.
Cree was priced for perfection going into earnings, it worried me. I could have lightened my shares, but then I risked having to buy them higher on a positive reaction. I’ve been biding my time with CREE, letting it effervesce for months, hoping for an opportunity to add exposure into some blood.
It appears I have my opportunity.
Shares are down nearly 15 percent on the news. My cost basis is much lower so the market will have to do worse to shake me. I’m a buyer down here, but I intend to do so with laser like precision.
The CREE chart has needed to reset since February. This isn’t a trade. It’s a multiyear thesis that will crush. The numbers out of CREE look great to my eye.
There’s nothing you can do, sans having illegal insider information, to avoid the type of loss I was forced to take in OCZ today. Sometimes you get unexpected news, especially when you’re digging through dumpsters looking for winners. You have to cut the names as gracefully as possible and take precautionary measures to protect your emotional capital or avoid tilt as some say. I should have probably sold on the first bounce, instead of nursing the position late into the afternoon.
I am experiencing winship in the AIXG today, I’ve waited quite some time for this name to get active, and it will be interesting to see if CREE is a negative contagion tomorrow.
My peanut gallery of stocks were mostly down today with the exception of ONVO and IMMR.
Tonight I’ll be formulating plans to accumulate the blood in LED and I will burn thickets of sage to cleanse these demonic losses out of my home.
As quiet as today seemed, I was able to advance my portfolio by over 1 percent today. Leading the way were my LED players, RVLT, CREE, and AIXG. This basket of securities currently represents 23 percent of my portfolio and I intend to make it much larger, perhaps even as large as 50 percent of my book.
That’s how much conviction I have in lighting grade LEDs.
I intend to make a very concentrated bet and advance my family to the next level of society, top hats. If anyone can present one iota of evidence contrary to the eventual 100% adoption rate of LEDs in the United States, please do so now. And don’t feed me that plasma light bullshit, I’ve tested these things and I’m wholeheartedly unimpressed by both the performance and the economics.
I’m slowing my swing portfolio down a bit, instead focusing on building into names I believe add value to society, which is why I started buying cigarette marker LO into the bell. I’m essentially parking money in the Newport Cigarette maker, planning to earn the very handsome coupon while they add value to the smoking community. How? The Blu eCigarette. When LO took over Blu and rolled it out to every convenience station from here to California, they earned the early mover seat in this space. I like to imagine they have teams of behavioral physiologists and scientists working around the clock to sell more of these disposable vaporizers. My game plan on LO is to buy weakness, time and time again, and allow the eventual growth from eCigs to buoy the share price enough for the coupon to make me profit. Fun stuff, I know. I’m sleeping on some Ford(s) shares the same way.
I have a heterogeneous mixture of other stocks kicking around in the old portfolio, mostly names where I’ve taken the lion share of profits and left a runner on for sport. Stocks like O, BPZ, ONVO, and IMMR. I really only see reason to sell BPZ but the others I keep, like collecting baseball cards.
I still have a decent hunk of FB, about 35% of what I consider full size.
I bought more OCZ today. This is my aggressive pumper. I’m having a hard time accepting a double top at two bucks. I’ve questioned this proposition by increasing my size in the name in search of a short term pump. I’m playing PBF in a similar manner although it has different chart logic.
My other aggressive trade is YGE, which is still huge.
That makes 14 longs, 0 shorts, and 25% cash. Just writing that out makes me want to sell something and concentrate my eggs…